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Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)


Renegade7

Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season(2021)???  

227 members have voted

  1. 1. Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season (2021)???

    • Draft QB first round
    • Rookie QB from outside first round
    • Sign FA Veteran
    • Trade for Veteran
    • Stand Pat with one of the QBs we have on Roster, draft QB in 2022 Draft iinstead
    • I don't know
    • I don't care
    • I'm tired of 5 year development plans burned to the ground in less then 2
  2. 2. Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season (2021)??? - (Feb 2020)

    • Draft QB first round
    • Rookie QB from outside first round
    • Sign FA Veteran
    • Trade for Veteran
      0
    • Stand Pat with one of the QBs we have on Roster, draft QB in 2022 Draft iinstead
    • I don't know
      0
    • I don't care
    • I'm tired of 5 year development plans burned to the ground in less then 2


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1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

I think you have to keep in mind that they are talking on a scale, and not in the 1:8,000,000,000 scale. 

 

It's more on a 1:32 scale. Because that's the reference point.

 

No one who played or has played in the NFL sucks at football. 

 

I get it.

I just see that a lot of people under-estimate and under-appreciate the talent that it takes, to do what they are doing.

Once in a while it would be good to take Fan Glasses off for a few seconds, and appreciate what they are accomplishing, and what they are going against, in competition ; both the competition from other QB's, and the competition of the defensive talent they face.

I mean, even if you subtract the billions of people who never played football, that is still a humongous pool of other athletes to be ahead of.

Also, when it crosses the line of becoming a 'personal attack' on a player, and mocking him simply because he's not a Top 10 guy, I think it's wrong, especially if he's a man of great character

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11 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

Yanno, I keep hearing people chat about moving up to take one of the top QB prospects, and I keep thinking "What must Fitz be thinking? Here we go AGAIN??!?"

I seriously hope we do not take a QB in the 1st or 2nd round....one of those 3rd round picks would be ok by me if a QB we really like is sitting there. I'm really liking rolling with Fitz for 2 years while seeing what we have in Heinicke and Kyle Allen. If we can make the team around these 3 QB's great then I am more than comfortable playing with them for the foreseeable future. 

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I don't see us trading up to get a QB4/QB5 of tier one.   To trade up to #4, #5 will probably at require 2021 1st and 2nd round pick and 2022 1st round pick, at minimum.  To trade up to #7, probably at least 2021 1st and 2nd round pick and probably some other pick.   I don't see Rivera and company doing that.  If Dan was running things, yes.   Ron will not want to give up that many assets.   

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1 hour ago, LD0506 said:

Yanno, I keep hearing people chat about moving up to take one of the top QB prospects, and I keep thinking "What must Fitz be thinking? Here we go AGAIN??!?"

He's 39. What did he expect.

1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I don't see us trading up to get a QB4/QB5 of tier one.

Who cares. If you think a guy is that good it doesn't matter where he gets drafted in the first.

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3 hours ago, LD0506 said:

Yanno, I keep hearing people chat about moving up to take one of the top QB prospects, and I keep thinking "What must Fitz be thinking? Here we go AGAIN??!?"

Agree but I also believe we draft a QB that he can mentor.  Having Fitz here this year and 2022 would be ideal.  We shall see what RR does.

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2 hours ago, LD0506 said:

Yanno, I keep hearing people chat about moving up to take one of the top QB prospects, and I keep thinking "What must Fitz be thinking? Here we go AGAIN??!?"

 

I think Fitz at 39 knows what the deal is. He knows his NFL playing life is short. I also believe that even if Ron trades up for a QB, he lets Fitz have this season and lets the rookie sit behind him and learn. That to me is the ideal situation anyway. They did not go get Fitz for $10M for him to sit. And if they did - that's a pretty nice payday to hold a clipboard. 

 

I just really like where we are. All options are open. They have made the moves needed to have the most flexibility. If the right player and trade is there, they can do it. If not, they can afford to hold out and let it go if it's too rich. 

 

The only absolute have to in terms of the draft is LB. But you can get that in the 2nd or 3rd with good scouting. Looking forward to this draft even a little more than usual. Again, I just really like where we are at this point of the season. Still lot's of work to do and probably another year from possibly being special. But you can see the path. 

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2 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I don't see us trading up to get a QB4/QB5 of tier one.   To trade up to #4, #5 will probably at require 2021 1st and 2nd round pick and 2022 1st round pick, at minimum.  To trade up to #7, probably at least 2021 1st and 2nd round pick and probably some other pick.   I don't see Rivera and company doing that.  If Dan was running things, yes.   Ron will not want to give up that many assets.   

I doubt they do it either, but if you can get a qb you love, you do it... and it sure doesn’t matter who got drafted before said qb (see Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, etc).  Gotta love him as a prospect though to take that big a risk.  

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21 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

An interesting list but I have a really hard time seeing Trask in the 2nd and Mond in the 4th. IMO Mond >> Trask and I have doubts Mond lasts beyond the 2nd round; I'd flip those two around as far as draft round. I could potentially see Mills in the 3rd but I think his lack of experience, injury history, and tendency to follow up great throws with complete head scratchers could push him down a bit further.

 

 

Not saying anything about these specific players, but I do think a number of QBs will end up being drafted much lower than people here think. The first round guys always get inflated. But after that, players tend to fall lower than projections. I think in part due to demand. But there's always a tendency to overvalue QBs as well.

 

Anyhow, in the last ten years, the most QBs selected in Rounds 1-3 combined were seven. That happened once, in 2011. These were the 7 QBs drafted: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Ryan Mallett. Unfortunately the bad news is that Cam Newton, who went 1:1, was the only really good QB of the group. Andy Dalton was serviceable, though I doubt anyone would be excited about acquiring the next Andy Dalton (even though there are far worse options). Going back to 2006, you also had 7 QBs go in the first three rounds. That year the 7 were: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, and Brodie Croyle. A generally ugly group, though Cutler was decent. I couldn't find a single draft where 8 QBs went off the board in the first three rounds in the last 40 years. Even the vaunted 1983 draft class, which has 6 first rounders, didn't have another QB go off the board until the 5th round.

 

Point being, for 2021, if 5 QBs go in the first round (very likely), if even three more go in rounds 2-3, that would be an all time high. Not saying it can't happen, but it would be historically unpresented. So between Trask, Mond, Mills, and Newman there's a good chance at least half of them make it to round 4. There's also a very good chance all of them (all being Trask, Mond, Mills, and Newman) will never amount to much, so it's likely much ado about nothing anyhow.

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3 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I doubt they do it either, but if you can get a qb you love, you do it... and it sure doesn’t matter who got drafted before said qb (see Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, etc).  Gotta love him as a prospect though to take that big a risk.  

I don’t see them willing to go that because I don’t think they feel they have to get a QB this year. They are satisfied with the QB room. Now, if one if the 2nd tier or 3rd tier guys they might be interested in is still around; they might draft that QBs.  
 

After signing Fitzpatrick; QB isn’t a top need. If they really were interested in the Top 5 of tier one and wanted to trade up; they wouldn’t have signed Fitzpatrick.

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5 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

After signing Fitzpatrick; QB isn’t a top need. If they really were interested in the Top 5 of tier one and wanted to trade up; they wouldn’t have signed Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick is 39. He doesn’t in any ways stop you from going after your QB of the future.

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I still think if Washington wants Mond, they'd have to draft him in the second round (and maybe even trade up a little). 

 

Mills and Newman might still be available in the 3rd, but here again, some teams may be trying to misdirect other teams by portraying themselves as being  very QB hungry this draft.

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QBs taken after round 1 have such an abysmal track record that it honestly isn't even worth the investment. At least if you get backups at other positions in those rounds they could play legitimate snaps and help you. Backup QBs don't do any good as long as your starter is healthy.

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12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

QBs taken after round 1 have such an abysmal track record that it honestly isn't even worth the investment. At least if you get backups at other positions in those rounds they could play legitimate snaps and help you. Backup QBs don't do any good as long as your starter is healthy.

 

These stats won't keep teams from trying but still very lousy hit rates.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I don’t see them willing to go that because I don’t think they feel they have to get a QB this year. They are satisfied with the QB room. Now, if one if the 2nd tier or 3rd tier guys they might be interested in is still around; they might draft that QBs.  
 

After signing Fitzpatrick; QB isn’t a top need. If they really were interested in the Top 5 of tier one and wanted to trade up; they wouldn’t have signed Fitzpatrick.

1) Agree - they don’t feel they have to draft a top qb.  Semantically, I’m not sure if ‘satisfied’ is the right term, but doesn’t matter.  
 

2) Qb is still a top need.  I suppose if you ignore positional importance, ignore age and contract,  and narrow the focus to this year only, you could argue qb is somewhere around 6th on our list of needs.  

 

3) They weren’t (aren’t?) willing to move up that aggressively in the draft, similar to having a price point for Stafford.  If one they love falls closer to 19 (ie the price is easier to stomach), they’ll 100% try to trade up.  It would be asinine not to.  
It can’t be just to say they’ve drafted a 1st round/top qb though.  (I mean, it could be, but that would be dumb and uncharacteristic).  


4) It bears mentioning that (competent) FOs don’t operate quite like fans do.  We have our qb likes and dislikes, and our tiers (which they do as well), but while we might be happy to land any of the top 4 or 5 qbs, these guys have put a lot more work in to figure out scheme/philosophical fit, personality, character, etc.  And, of course, their jobs kind of rely on making the right choice.  

They’re not going to trade with, say ATL prior to the draft without knowing who will be there (unless they love at least 4 of the qbs - then it will be cost that deters them).  

 


You’re absolutely right though that Fitz gives them the option to punt this year.   He doesn’t, in any way, prevent them from going after/trading up for a win though.  

 

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6 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

QBs taken after round 1 have such an abysmal track record that it honestly isn't even worth the investment. At least if you get backups at other positions in those rounds they could play legitimate snaps and help you. Backup QBs don't do any good as long as your starter is healthy.

 

I think it's funny when people talk about drafting a "Quarterback of the future" in Round 3. A guy like that will be lucky to still be on the team in three years. Getting a decent backup would be a good outcome for a pick like that. Any QB you draft after Round 1 should never be the plan to start. If a player like that does become a starter, great. You hit the lottery. It should just never be the expectation.

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1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

I mean Lance has the tools that I'm sure Rivera and Turner want in a QB, but I doubt we mortgage the future to get the 4th/5th option. We'd have to trade into the top 10 to get him and it would just cost too much.


it will cost a lot.

 

however, a jump from #19 to #4 is no different to the 49ers jump from #12 to #3 in terms of perceived value, as a starting point. It’s actually marginally less I believe.

 

top 3 picks escalate in value vastly.

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 


got to admit, I’ve been in on Lance for many months. trading away a ton of picks isn’t my ideal scenario.....but I have to be honest and say I’d be pretty excited if we got him to back up Fitz....I’d feel like we could be very well set for a long time.....

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Lance has some sick tools.  A rocket arm.  And he's arguably the best running QB in this draft.  His intangibles are supposedly off the charts.  He's raw -- stares at his #1 target, mostly a one read guy and if they aren't open he runs.  But I'd be excited about him.  I like Fields more.  But I like Lance.

 

I keep reading that Rivera likes the idea of modeling the Bills.  Lance has some Josh Allen in him.  Allen with the stronger arm.  Lance the better runner.  Both with big time intangibles. 

 

There would be some irony to me if they trade up to get him. When I did my first longish take on Lance on this thread months ago, I said his arm strength and the way he flings the deep ball with the flick of a wrist reminds me of RG3.

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https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/michael-lombardi-thinks-washington-will-make-major-move-trey-lance

 

Lombardi doesn't think Washington will strike a deal with Atlanta right away. He believes the asking price is too high for what Washington is willing to pay. 

"They're going to wait for the draft. And, if Trey Lance starts to slide, they're going to go get his ass," Lombardi said. "They're gonna go get his ass. 'We're going to react to what happens in front of us.' He's not lying. Ron [Rivera] is just being totally honest."

 

But, if Lance makes it past the fourth pick in the draft - by Atlanta or whatever team trades up into that spot - the analyst thinks Washington could make a move.

"I think they want Trey Lance. I think they're willing to go get him. I think they want to do it in a way to where they can minimize their cost," Lombardi said. "And so the only way you can do that is get on the clock and wait for that draft to start and wait for who goes four, who goes five, who's at six. Maybe I can get to six and they'll be willing to move down [to 19] and I'll give them next year's [first-round pick] and yada yada yah. And move on that way."

 

If Washington were to select Lance, he would not be put into action right away, especially after adding Fitzpatrick in free agency.

In an ideal situation, Lance could sit for a year behind Fitzpatrick -- who has mentored multiple young quarterbacks in the past, including Miami's Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 -- before taking over as the team's franchise QB in 2022.

"I think they want competition. Fitzpatrick is going to be the starter opening day. I don't think there's any doubt about that. The reality of this is how long can Fitzy go for. And he's the perfect guy," Lombardi said. "Say they draft Trey Lance and they got Fitzy, Taylor Heinicke and they got Kyle Allen over there. So they let Fitzy start the season off, they redshirt Lance and they go into 2022 ready to go. They've got their quarterback for the future."

 

 

STRONGEST ARM: TREY LANCE

Not only does Lance have easy juice on the ball already, but there’s also reason to think he could get even stronger because he is the youngest quarterback in the draft. Even in only one season of play, Lance still has throws all over his tape that make you say “wow” with the velocity he puts on them.

 

BEST RUNNER: TREY LANCE

While there is no shortage of athletes at the position in this class, Lance not only has the physical tools, but he also has the on-field proof. He racked up 823 yards on 101 designed runs in 2019 and 327 yards on 33 scrambles, as well. Over his career, he averaged over 9.0 yards per attempt, and 18 of his 154 rushes ended up with a score.

 

 

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Dream scenario:

 

Falcons stay at 4 and draft one of the non QB big 3 in Pitts/Sewell/Chase(. The remaining 2 get drafted by the Bengals and Dolphins at 5 and 6 respectively.

 

Panthers, having acquired Darnold, try to trade down but don't get juicy enough offers. Broncos are happy sitting at 9 and taking who is left between Fields and Lance. Pats sit pat. Panthers take the BAP, probably OT Slater.

 

Broncos at 9 take Fields.

 

Cowboys take Surtain or Horn. Giants take an edge or Davante Smith. Eagles take Surtain, Horn, or Smith(whoever they think is best among who is available).

 

Now here is where things get interesting. The next two teams are the Vikings and Chargers, neither are going QB. We call up the Vikings and offer a 2nd and 3rd to swap picks to overtake the Pats to take Lance. Bellicheck is left fuming.

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I keep reading that Rivera likes the idea of modeling the Bills.  Lance has some Josh Allen in him.  Allen with the stronger arm.  Lance the better runner.  Both with big time intangibles. 

You nailed it about RR modeling the Bills and meeting with them regarding their methods.  It is for that reason that I could see him pushing a trade for Lance.

 

Lance's rawness is in the passing game scares the crap out of me. It is a good spot to have Fitz and Heinicke in front of him.

If they get Lance and Allen is healthy, they would look to trade Allen or Heinicke. I could see Heinicke gathering a little interest based on the playoffs for at least a late rounder.

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