Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[HigSkin]

22 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Mariota is fine but I still would like Carr.  Maybe, just maybe the Raider will reconsider trading however I am not looking for it to happen.

 

It's interesting how Raiders have been slobbering all over Carr the last couple of weeks like it's the first time they've done that and seems a little disingenuous.  Maybe that indicates something is up like they're driving up his trade price.  Who knows....LOL

[Koolblue13]

4 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If my choices are guys like Trubisky and Darnold, I'll just roll with what we have and see what happens, either in this draft or the next.  

Same. We don't have a career winning QB anymore to save us from losing all the time anymore.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

FWIW, one of the "talking heads" ex-players on Sports media yesterday, think it was TJ Houshmandzadeh said he was standing next to Trask a couple weeks ago and said he thought he was Carson Wentz.  He said the dude is huge and can really sling it.  Not that it means anything.  LOL

 

Trask is a really big dude but unlike Wentz he doesn't have a big arm or mobility. 

[Thinking Skins]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd add no one remembers dudes like Clayton Thorson.   But people will remember Haskins.  When people talk about the lower rounds the rare successes are repeated to death, dudes like Thorson and the slew of others like him are forgotten.   So it sort of presents a false narrative IMO in some people's heads that a guy like Dak is pretty common.  And dudes like Davis Webb, Lauletta, D. Kizer, Hackenberg, Conner Cook, Cadale Jones and Kevin Hogan on and on and on are forgotten.  And many of them have cool stories at the time, I can recall some of them.  Conner Cook was supposedly the next Kirk.  Lauletta was the Senior Bowl star and riser, etc, etc. 

 

But that goes for all positions. There was a CB in the draft about 10 years go, Chase Minnifield. I thought he was going to be the steal of the draft. Most boards had him going in the second. We got him as an UDFA. I thought we had the steal and we were going to have an all pro. Well that's not how it worked out. But its really no harm no foul because as talented as he was, we didn't give up anything to get him so we lost nothing by trying him out. 

 

How many LBs do teams draft that don't even make the roster? Nobody bats an eye. Maybe thats a problem if its a second or third rouner. All I'm saying is that we're passing up on opportunities to go after the platinum picks at other positions when we're chasing platinum at QB. And the bust rate at QB is way higher than at other positions. So why not take the almost sure thing in the first and gamble later in the draft, unless say a sure thing comes to you in the draft. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

So why not take the almost sure thing in the first and gamble later in the draft, unless say a sure thing comes to you in the draft. 

 

 

It's not a theortical conversation in my book.  I don't take a Haskins or a Ponder or a Locker just because I need a QB.  But if I think Josh Allen is a transcedent talent and i don't think there is a dude like that in the later rounds, I take Josh Allen if I can.  You seem focused on the downside of getting it wrong in the first.  But, if you focus on the upside and get a Josh Allen right or Mahomes -- you are likely set for the next 15 years.  It's a case by case basis.  

 

To play with your point, if we take Darrisaw (who would be a nice get IMO) at 19, it doesn't make us a SB contender or change the fortunes of the franchise.  So the stakes aren't really that crazy one way or another with the exception of lets say you are drafting super high and end up with a transcedent talent at your pick like a Chase Young.   But whether we get the next Brandon Scherff, Josh Doctson, Ryan Kerrigan in the draft its unlikely going to change the fortune of our team -- we've stunk plenty of years with said players. 

 

As for who you take in the first, I agree that matters.  Someone like Jason Campbell wasn't a transcedent talent.  He was more of a projection.  Ditto a guy like Patrick Ramsey.  Neither had through the roof tools or talent.  Someone like Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray etc have special talent and its obvious.     

 

Also if you keep fishing in the Nick Mullens pool the odds that you ever go to the SB is low.  But if the goal is to match the Jay Gruden peak years where you end up more or less 8-8 then shooting low is fine.  I am tired of 9-7 every 4 years and to be knocked out of the playoffs in round 1.  We haven't won 11 games in like 30 years.  2 playoff wins in about 20 years.  It's sad.  If my goal is to accept the sadness and maybe relish those 9-7 seasons like its our new version of a SB season and a playoff birth is our new version of a SB win -- then I can ride with playing the lottery every year in the late rounds and yeah hope that our Kyle Lauletta becomes the rare Dak Prescott. 

 

Said differently, if I think I got some special players who I can win a SB with -- it would be a waste to roll the dice of the roster on a Davis Webb or Kyle Hogan, etc. 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[samy316]

46 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Same. We don't have a career winning QB anymore to save us from losing all the time anymore.

 
But the problem with that is that you’re potentially wasting a great defense rolling with what we have currently.  If we roll with Heinecke/Allen next year, we’re going to be struggling to score 17-20 points like last year, and the defense will get gassed and tired trying to keep games within reach for us.  We also need to add a QB, because it will affect who comes here during FA.  No FA WR or TE is going to sign here willingly unless we either overpay, or upgrade our QB’s.  We don’t have a prayer attracting higher level FA’s like Robinson, Davis, Schuster unless we overpay, or guarantee them that we will solve our QB issue.

Edited March 5, 2021 by samy316

[Thinking Skins]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

To play with your point, if we take Darrisaw (who would be a nice get IMO) at 19, it doesn't make us a SB contender or change the fortunes of the franchise.  So the stakes aren't really that crazy one way or another with the exception of lets say you are drafting super high and end up with a transcedent talent at your pick like a Chase Young.   But whether we get the next Brandon Scherff, Josh Doctson, Ryan Kerrigan in the draft its unlikely going to change the fortune of our team -- we've stunk plenty of years with said players. 

 

See, this is what I disagree with. Chase Young was the number 2 pick in the draft, but we got Jon Allen at 17. We got Payne at 13. We got Sweat in the 20s. Those four picks together give us one of the top DLs in the league. The more we spend on a QB, the less we have to address other positions unless we overspend in FA or play roulette with a lower round pick. 

 

I don't know who we can pick that will make us a SB contender immediately but really my problem with a lot of our drafts in the past (compared to the Ravens and Panthers for example) is that under Scot M and Kyle S we seemed to get more players with high floors but low ceilings. I can't say how many picks we got that made the team and were contributors but nothing special. Carolina and Baltimore were hitting their lower round picks out of the park. I'm talking pro bowlers with low round picks. That's the kind of picks that I think this team needs because we have a bunch of meh guys all over the roster everywhere but our DL. And if we put a playmaker at FS or at ILB or at TE or at WR2 or at RB or at CB, it can really catapult our team. 

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 
But the problem with that is that you’re potentially wasting a great defense rolling with what we have currently.  If we roll with Heinecke/Allen next year, we’re going to be struggling to score 17-20 points like last year, and the defense will get gassed and tired trying to keep games within reach for us.  We also need to add a QB, because it will affect who comes here during FA.  No FA WR or TE is going to sign here willingly unless we either overpay, or upgrade our QB’s.

We'll draft higher and get a QB, but signing Darnold isn't going to change anything.

[86 Snyder]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's not a theortical conversation in my book.  I don't take a Haskins or a Ponder or a Locker just because I need a QB.  But if I think Josh Allen is a transcedent talent and i don't think there is a dude like that in the later rounds, I take Josh Allen if I can.  You seem focused on the downside of getting it wrong in the first.  But, if you focus on the upside and get a Josh Allen right or Mahomes -- you are likely set for the next 15 years.  It's a case by case basis.  

 

To play with your point, if we take Darrisaw (who would be a nice get IMO) at 19, it doesn't make us a SB contender or change the fortunes of the franchise.  So the stakes aren't really that crazy one way or another with the exception of lets say you are drafting super high and end up with a transcedent talent at your pick like a Chase Young.   But whether we get the next Brandon Scherff, Josh Doctson, Ryan Kerrigan in the draft its unlikely going to change the fortune of our team -- we've stunk plenty of years with said players. 

 

As for who you take in the first, I agree that matters.  Someone like Jason Campbell wasn't a transcedent talent.  He was more of a projection.  Ditto a guy like Patrick Ramsey.  Neither had through the roof tools or talent.  Someone like Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray etc have special talent and its obvious.     

 

Also if you keep fishing in the Nick Mullens pool the odds that you ever go to the SB is low.  But if the goal is to match the Jay Gruden peak years where you end up more or less 8-8 then shooting low is fine.  I am tired of 9-7 every 4 years and to be knocked out of the playoffs in round 1.  We haven't won 11 games in like 30 years.  2 playoff wins in about 20 years.  It's sad.  If my goal is to accept the sadness and maybe relish those 9-7 seasons like its our new version of a SB season and a playoff birth is our new version of a SB win -- then I can ride with playing the lottery every year in the late rounds and yeah hope that our Kyle Lauletta becomes the rare Dak Prescott. 

 

Said differently, if I think I got some special players who I can win a SB with -- it would be a waste to roll the dice of the roster on a Davis Webb or Kyle Hogan, etc. 

 

Saying it loud for the people in the back...

 

This is why the Alex Smith trade was a disaster from the start!!!

 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

See, this is what I disagree with. Chase Young was the number 2 pick in the draft, but we got Jon Allen at 17. We got Payne at 13. We got Sweat in the 20s. Those four picks together give us one of the top DLs in the league. The more we spend on a QB, the less we have to address other positions unless we overspend in FA or play roulette with a lower round pick. 

 

 

You talk here about four #1 picks over 4 years and all of them together accomplished such and such.    And heck that team still went 7-9 with medicore QB play.  But the point wasn't 4 drafts versus one.  Or the typical 7 players versus 1 (when comparing all the other rounds versus a first rounder). 

 

I know people don't do it intentionally but to me the weakness in the arguments shows in how people go wildly off the apples to apples debate and instead go on a wild apples to oranges comparison to have a stronger leg to stand on.

 

Your point was in a draft its better to take a nonQB in the first versus taking a QB.   I took that point on.  So now you turned it to its better to have four #1 picks instead of just one. 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

47 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Trask is a really big dude but unlike Wentz he doesn't have a big arm or mobility. 

 

This is something that surprised me when I started watching more of Trask. For such a big dude, he has a pretty weak arm.

 

Then again, size and arm strength aren't necessarily directly correlated all the time. Mahomes isn't a huge dude and he has a cannon. Murray doesn't have the arm of Mahomes but he has a very good one, probably top 10, and he's small. Rodgers isn't a big QB but has a hell of an arm. I guess it's more about torque and natural/genetic biomechanics.

 

It's like throwing punches...some guys seem to just have that latent ability to absolutely devastate with a single blow, even if they aren't enormous. You can improve it with good mechanics and strengthening your core, hips, etc...but that will only improve it so much before you "peak" out your natural ability.

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 
But the problem with that is that you’re potentially wasting a great defense rolling with what we have currently.  If we roll with Heinecke/Allen next year, we’re going to be struggling to score 17-20 points like last year, and the defense will get gassed and tired trying to keep games within reach for us.  We also need to add a QB, because it will affect who comes here during FA.  No FA WR or TE is going to sign here willingly unless we either overpay, or upgrade our QB’s.  We don’t have a prayer attracting higher level FA’s like Robinson, Davis, Schuster unless we overpay, or guarantee them that we will solve our QB issue.

Heineke put up 23 on the eventual Super Bowl winning defense. A defense that was completely dominate after their game against us. 

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

We'll draft higher and get a QB, but signing Darnold isn't going to change anything.

 

It will cause @Skinsinparadise's head to explode. That should at least be fascinating to witness firsthand. 

[skinny21]

53 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Trask is a really big dude but unlike Wentz he doesn't have a big arm or mobility. 

I’m sure there are far better comps, but to me he comes across as a bigger, more aggressive, maybe slightly less mobile Kirk Cousins.  Adequate arms, not very mobile (but able to move the chains occasionally), sometimes holds the ball a long time, solid touch, pretty smart, good ball placement.  Maybe I’m way off base though.

[Dark Acre]

3 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yeah, but part of it is just the fact that there isn't that much steak in existence. Think of it this way. Assume Platinum is the most valuable metal, but there's not much platinum in the world. So say one guy in the world gets to get some platinum jewelry. Then there's gold. Not as precious as platinum, but more of it. So say 5 guys can have gold jewelry and some guys can have more of it. Then there's silver. Silver is there in almost oversupply. There are silver depots saying "here, buy some silver jewelry". Question becomes can you build a nice enough wardrobe that gets you in the best dressed category with the silver jewelry? with the gold? Or do you have to be the lucky guy to get the platinum? 

No, you just steal catalytic converters off cars.

[HigSkin]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Trask is a really big dude but unlike Wentz he doesn't have a big arm or mobility. 

 

Yea, TJ I guess works out with a lot a young QB's catching passes or something like that but it's all he said about Trask.

[clskinsfan]

Trask's footwork in the pocket is underrated. He is lightyears ahead of Mond in that category. But I agree with those of you who are not impressed with his arm strength. It's better than Colt's if you want to make him feel better.

[Koolblue13]

27 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

It will cause @Skinsinparadise's head to explode. That should at least be fascinating to witness firsthand. 

I'd be good with that, since he keeps my Pitts dream alive.

[CapsSkins]

So continuing to think about Dak. I've said all along I think he gets tagged. However, I haven't done the math on how that would affect Dallas' cap situation. A 2021 cap hit of $37.7M means they'd have to clear a good chunk of room, and IDK how feasible that is.

 

Has anyone looked into this? Could tagging Dak be expensive enough that perhaps they decide it's worth letting him hit FA?

[Skinsinparadise]

Some team hopefully not us has to save Sam Darnold from the frustrated NY fans.  I noticed Finlay has soured some on Darnold after his conversation with the Jets reporter about him, Keim to an extent ditto.  

 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[TheShredder]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some team hopefully not us has to save Sam Darnold from the frustrated NY fans.  I noticed Finlay has soured some on Darnold after his conversation with the Jets reporter about him, Keim to an extent ditto.  

 

 

 

If they call Tom Brady The GOAT, they should just be calling Butt Fumble, Butt Fumble. Just another example of the double standard.

Edited March 5, 2021 by TheShredder

[Skinsinparadise]

55 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

It will cause @Skinsinparadise's head to explode. That should at least be fascinating to witness firsthand. 

 

I'll just say if they go after Darnold and land him, I'll be convinced for good they will always do the very thing at QB that I'd hate the most -- since it would then be three times in a row.  2 times could be an accident, 3 times in a row is a sad pattern.  😕

 

So if that happens from that point on the QB thread, I will say the opposite of what I really think and hope that changes my luck. 🙄 And if its Darnold they acquire I strongly suspect this same QB thread will be alive and well next winter/spring, too. 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

@Skinsinparadisedoing the lord’s work in here SIP, just wanted to acknowledge it. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

We don't?