Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[CurseReversed]

Experience is important but with some guys not having it is more impressive then having it.  Someone like Jones who is already super polished after only one full year of starting translates to  potential while others situations might translate more to risk.  Like Simms said, Jones is not a project, he is already there.  

 

Jones also ran scout team for a year or two against saban's first string.  That has got to be a pretty great learning environment.  

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by CurseReversed

[CommDownMan]

Cowboys need Dak and he knows it and has leverage to get 40 mill.

 

If Dallas doesn't pull the trigger, saying he isn't worth 40mill, does the market say he's worth that?  I don't see it compared to some of these 40 mill guys and wonder who would make that jump.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

So all this talk about Chris Simms' draft board, and the news on Mac Jones being better than many of us probably think/want to think/believe/etc. has me more intrigued about how the draft unfolds.

 

If the draft unfolds as expected, I could see either Mac Jones or Trey Lance falling. And reading the tea-leaves, it sounds like it could be Trey Lance. We only really need Lance to get within striking distance. If he falls past the 49ers I would be calling up the Vikings and offering #19 and one of our 3rds to move up and get Lance.

 

And here is where the Falcons become serious keys to the draft. Do they stand pat at #4 and take a QB? Or do they take BPA, like Sewell or Parsons? Or do they trade back with Carolina so Carolina can come draft their QB, meaning at #8 Atlanta goes away from QB? Denver is also a total wildcard, but I really trust Benjamin Albright who covers the team and he has been adamant that they are not ready to move on from Luck. So at this point, while many think they are a team that should go QB, I'm thinking at this stage they stick with Lock and go elsewhere at 9.

 

1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson

2. NY Jets - Zach Wilson, QB BYU

3. Miami - Jamar Chase, WR LSU

4. Carolina - Justin Fields, QB Ohio State

5. Cincinnati - Penei Sewell, OT Oregon

6. Philadelphia - Kyle Pitts, TE Florida

7. Detroit - Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama

8. Atlanta - Micah Parsons, LB Penn State

9. Denver - Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech

10. Dallas - Patrick Surtain, CB Alabama

11. NY GIants - Devonta Smith, WR Alabama

12. San Francisco - Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern

13. LA Chargers - Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech

14. Minnesota - Alijah Vera-Tucker, T/G USC

15. New England - Mac Jones, QB Alabama

16. Arizona - Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina

17. Las Vegas - Kwity Paye, DE Michigan

18. Miami - Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan

19. Washington - Trey Lance, QB NDSU

 

Now, let's say Atlanta stays at #4 and takes Fields. Mac Jones or Trey Lance go to Carolina at 8. IF ... San Francisco passes on QB at #12 we should be in position to trade up with the Chargers at 13 or the Vikings at 14 and give up only a 3rd to do so. Take Lance or Jones there. It would be a bit of a gamble to wait until #19 at that point. If Lance is still on the board, maybe NE passes on him since he's so raw and Bill wants someone with experience (Mond maybe later in the draft?). If its Mac Jones, then I think the Patriots are more likely to take him at 15 than Lance. But either way, it's a manageable situation to be in to only have to give up a 3rd to move up for Lance. And it leaves you with 2/3/4 to draft an OT and WR to go along with a LB.

 

But that's where things would get interesting. Because if only 3 QBs go and they go Top 4 and everyone else chooses to go a different position (Starting with Atlanta) ... and only Jax, NYJets and Carolina hit QB ... and Jones and Lance are both still there after the SF pick at #12 ... what do you do? Do you wait to see which one of them falls past NE? Do you have a preferred target and just trade up for them anyway (you know the staff will have a preferred target, so that probably does make sense). And at some point, do you risk letting the Bears jump you? I assume they're also doing the same exercise we are doing at this stage.

Edited March 4, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Renegade7]

So much for that idea...

 

 

[Busch1724]

11 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

So much for that idea...

 

 

 

 

Good, smart, patience...

[ExoDus84]

28 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

Good, smart, patience...

 

Normally I'd agree with you, but it's exceptionally rare that a QB of Watson's caliber becomes available. For talent like that at the most important position, sometimes you need to swing for the fences.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, jsharrin55 said:

Cowboys need Dak and he knows it and has leverage to get 40 mill.

 

If Dallas doesn't pull the trigger, saying he isn't worth 40mill, does the market say he's worth that?  I don't see it compared to some of these 40 mill guys and wonder who would make that jump.

 

I think it really depends on how worried teams are about his recovery. That was a major injury and he's had two surgeries on the ankle for it and is still somewhat early in his rehab. IIRC he's not even doing any sort of football related work yet. 

 

Without the injury I think the market and value of the QB position would probably give him that much money, even though I agree with you that he's not truly on that elite upper echelon level. But the market is the market. 

 

But with the injury? Big gamble there because you'll have to give him a huge contract with big time guaranteed money without even being able to see if he can even play anymore. But I'm guessing someone would bite. I still think it's almost certain that Dallas tags him and either pays him or trades him for a haul of picks. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

29 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Normally I'd agree with you, but it's exceptionally rare that a QB of Watson's caliber becomes available. For talent like that at the most important position, sometimes you need to swing for the fences.

 

2020 was a gift. It was a rebuild year. We had an under performing defense and I had a feeling we'd be a legitimate Top 5 squad, but with as inept as the offense was I don't think any of us truly feel the 2020 team as it existed really had any chance of competing beyond a bad division (though Heinecke magic, I think, made many of us excited for what the team could do going forward).

 

Last year I had this off-season circled as the one we'd really need/use to "close the gaps" and have a really strong roster. Of course, at the time I was optimistic that we'd have the QB position figured out with Haskins taking the next step.

 

But that said, with about $55 million in cap space and 8 draft picks, I do view this off-season as the one that takes our entire roster "to the next level" with the exception of the QB spot.

 

I do NOT think we have a "win now" window. I actually think we have the makings of a very good, deep, young and cheap roster. Meaning if we play our cards right, we could be setting ourselves up for a very long run at this. We just need the QB. And instead of panicking, and trading a lot of those pieces away for a QB, I think it is absolutely the right move to go 1 more off-season of roster-building. And if you stumble onto a QB in 2021 whether it be through Mariota or a surprise rookie ... then even better. Otherwise, I'd feel better about giving away draft capital next year ... after finding a WR2 and LT and solidifying the already stout defense.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

This roster has 3 glaring holes (assuming you bring back Darby and Scherff) and a few lesser holes. Obviously you'll never have a perfect roster and holes you thought were plugged may emerge later on. But right now ... you have

 

1. QB

2. WR2

3. MLB

----------

4. LT of the future

5. Slot WR/WR3

6. OLB

-----------

7. TE2

8. FS

 

If we totally, completely, ignore a QB with one of our premier picks (R1-3) and free agency $$ ... then I would expect we go into the season with all of these holes filled. I think you see:

 

Top-end OLB, WR2 in Free Agency ... a veteran FS in free agency ... and then in the draft you get the WR3, MLB, LT in the draft in some combination of the early picks.

 

And probably still go into the season with a decent chunk of FA money to roll over to 2022 off-season.

 

More holes will emerge in the 2021 season. Maybe we decide we really need a RB, or Holcomb needs to be replaced as the other OLB. Or Darby flops and we decide we gotta get another top-end CB. Whatever, those holes can be addressed easily in an off-season. But the roster at this time in 2022 will be much more complete, much more solid, and would be much more "in the window" to compete ... and if you don't luck into a QB solution in 2021, go all out next off-season when (presumably) fewer teams have needs at QB.

Edited March 4, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Panninho]

It's crazy to think that this offseason two of the top 5 QBs in this league could change teams.

[Skinsinparadise]

Geez Kyle Trask week, too?  I'd go Mond over Trask if I had to pick.   Sheehan pushing it.  Finlay seems intrigued.  

 

 

[Andre The Giant]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I know Sileo gets made fun of in twitter for being wildly wrong a lot.  Hopefully this is another case of that. 

[Mooka]

1 hour ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Normally I'd agree with you, but it's exceptionally rare that a QB of Watson's caliber becomes available. For talent like that at the most important position, sometimes you need to swing for the fences.

 

I don't think we're even in the ballpark though.

 

Even if we trade them multiple first round picks, none of them would be good enough to land a top QB. 

[FootballZombie]

I'd pretty much expect us to be in on any above replacement lvl QB once available. Just b/c we are not all over the prospect now does not mean too much.

[mistertim]

Wow, it's interesting to see how divergent some of the views on Mond are. Chris Simms says he's a top 15-20 talent and PFF says he's a 5th rounder but Trask is a 2nd rounder. 

[Thinking Skins]

I like Trask's work ethic. You can see in his year to year improvement but being a 2 star and getting the starting QB spot is a lot. But I don't want him in the second

[Est.1974]

Bet the Pukes haven’t got a clue what to do about Dak. Backed into a bit of a corner. Interesting time leading up to the tag deadline.

[Conn]

On 3/2/2021 at 6:03 PM, Rufus T Firefly said:

It's funny how often I think of that. McElroy was the next Brady and boy, were we all idiots for doubting it. 

The best part was how he built his “model” backwards from the result he wanted, and how he thought that was a good methodology lol 

[CommDownMan]

31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I know Sileo gets made fun of in twitter for being wildly wrong a lot.  Hopefully this is another case of that. 

 

In fairness calling the Seahawks about a trade, isn't anything close to agreement/deal or anything.  If I call the Seahawks receptionist about Wilson on my flag football team, I can count that as contact, right?

[Lovi]

9 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

The best part was how he built his “model” backwards from the result he wanted, and how he thought that was a good methodology lol 

i though he had a lot of “so-called” experts that wanted to buy his model. Whatever happened to that?  Lol

[Malapropismic Depository]

If we draft a QB in the 1st Round we are going to have a major problem.

3 great QB's in camp, clawing at each other. No wonder they decided to cut Alex Smiff.

There wouldn't be enough time, to pass enough reps around for up to 4 great and worthy QB's to fairly compete for the #1 job. We would need extra security. and so on. So Smiff had to go

Edited March 4, 2021 by Malapropismic Depository

[Thinking Skins]

5 minutes ago, Lovi said:

i though he had a lot of “so-called” experts that wanted to buy his model. Whatever happened to that?  Lol

From what I remember this was the story. I wanted to know more about it but he wouldn't talk about his methods other than assuring us that he was right. 

[mistertim]

43 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

The best part was how he built his “model” backwards from the result he wanted, and how he thought that was a good methodology lol 

 

He was right about McElroy. He threw a TD once. So did Tom Brady. 

 

CHECKMATE!

 

32 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

If we draft a QB in the 1st Round we are going to have a major problem.

3 great QB's in camp, clawing at each other. No wonder they decided to cut Alex Smiff.

There wouldn't be enough time, to pass enough reps around for up to 4 great and worthy QB's to fairly compete for the #1 job. We would need extra security. and so on. So Smiff had to go

 

If we draft a QB in the 1st round that's the guy who the coaches see as the future, not Allen or Heinicke. Depending on which guy we draft and how NFL ready he is, one of them could potentially still end up with the starting job this season, but they're clearly not seen as the long term solution.

[skeenzfan]

39 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

If we draft a QB in the 1st Round we are going to have a major problem.

3 great QB's in camp, clawing at each other. No wonder they decided to cut Alex Smiff.

There wouldn't be enough time, to pass enough reps around for up to 4 great and worthy QB's to fairly compete for the #1 job. We would need extra security. and so on. So Smiff had to go

 

I would pump the brakes on 'great'. TH showed promise with one game in which he got injured and Allen was average in the limited time before he got injured. I would lean more on the side of we don't have 'any great' QB and that is why wanted Stafford.