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Rookie QB or Veteran QB for 2021???


Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season(2021)???  

226 members have voted

  1. 1. Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season (2021)???

    • Draft QB first round
    • Rookie QB from outside first round
    • Sign FA Veteran
    • Trade for Veteran
    • Stand Pat with one of the QBs we have on Roster, draft QB in 2022 Draft iinstead
    • I don't know
    • I don't care
    • I'm tired of 5 year development plans burned to the ground in less then 2
  2. 2. Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season (2021)??? - (Feb 2020)

    • Draft QB first round
    • Rookie QB from outside first round
    • Sign FA Veteran
    • Trade for Veteran
      0
    • Stand Pat with one of the QBs we have on Roster, draft QB in 2022 Draft iinstead
    • I don't know
      0
    • I don't care
    • I'm tired of 5 year development plans burned to the ground in less then 2
      0


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11 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

To me, it would depend on whether his consistency improved.  If it didn’t (I know his completion % improved, which is a good sign, but that’s one data point), then the 4 year starter status actually hurts him.  At that point, I look harder at the guys with lower floors/fewer starts with the hope time/experience/coaches can improve their consistency.

 

The thing that makes me pause some with Mond beyond the consistency issue is he's not really fast.  He runs a 4.8 and change from what I reach which is actually pedestrian for a QB.  Granted speed isn't the only criteria for mobility but his YPC isn't much either.   I'd like him more if he had speed and or showed he could pull more yards on the ground when he ran.    Some bill him as a dual threat but I wonder how killer he will be on that front in the NFL. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Mond faired pretty well against Alabama considering he was under attack most of the game.

 

 

QB School likes him, says he's a big strong kid with a  big arm but need to work on his footwork and reads.

 

 

Edited by HigSkin
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40 minutes ago, Owls0325 said:

 

It's a interesting list to say the least. However his previous rankings has had some success, including last year being particularly high on Herbert, ranking Mahomes at the best QB in the 2017 class and in the 2018 class he had Jackson and Allen as his number #1 and #2. 

 

 

Like everyone he had some failures too, I recall him loving Drew Lock.   But just went through it.  Yeah he's been good going against the grain.  He wins me over with his take of Darnold that he gives. 😀

 

2018

  1. Lamar Jackson

  2. Josh Allen

  3. Baker Mayfield

  4. Sam Darnold

  5. Josh Rosen

2019

  1. Kyler Murray

  2. Drew Lock

  3. Dwayne Haskins

  4. Ryan Finley

  5. Jarrett Stidham

  6. Daniel Jones

  7. Clayton Thorson

  8. Will Grier

2020

  1. Joe Burrow

  2. Justin Herbert

  3. Jordan Love

  4. Tua Tagovailoa

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Article/Chris-Simms-Sam-Darnold-fifth-best-NFL-Draft-quarterback-116949819/

 

2017

1. Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

2. Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

5. Sam Darnold, QB, USC

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 and No. 4 overall selections. ESPN's Chris Mortensen believes that the decision comes down to Darnold or Allen. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. gave the Browns Allen and Penn State running back Saquon Barkley in his latest mock draft.

Simms does not see the appeal in Darnold.

"The most confusing thing to me is that Sam Darnold is definitely the number one or two pick by everyone. I am not trying to be a jerk to the kid, but the skill set I see on the field doesn’t relate to a can’t-miss prospect. I don’t think there’s anything he does elite physically. He’s toward the bottom as a thrower of the football, and he’s careless with the football," Simms explained.

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33 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If we running with AY/A than Mac Jones numbers are sick.   12.8 /77.4%.  

 

That's true. But I also noted when providing the AY/A that it doesn't appear to have all that much of a correlation to NFL success. Dwayne Haskins had a 10.3 AY/A in college. There are plenty of busts that had better college Y/A, AY/A, and completion percentages than some of the guys on that list of top current NFL QBs.

 

28 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Where were you able to get air yards per attempt? I was looking for this but PFR doesn't have it. I was looking at other sites but kinda gave up. 

 

I think I'm going to go back and update my model to account for year to year stats, but I won't have time to do it before this year's draft. I should probably be looking at Ian Brook as well because I've heard good things about him and he has a lot of the things I'd look for in a QB, but he is on the small side. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/   They provide all those stats.

 

EDIT: They provide Adjusted Y/A, not Air.

 

27 minutes ago, ODU AGGIE said:

What the heck is everybody thinking? Mac Jones must be the most terribly undervalued QB in the history of college football. If he is still available at pick # 19, I will puke if WFT does not grab him in a heart beat. I realize that he does not fit the mold of NFL trending QBs, but so what -- neither does Tom Brady. Jones led his team to an undefeated season and a national championship. He completed 77.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards and 41 TDs with only 4 interceptions, averaging 358 yards per game and posting a passer rating of 203.1. He should never be available at 19 -- in fact, RR should trade up to get him. Some time in the future, I am confident he will be in the NFL Hall of Fame with multiple Super Bowl wins, and every team that passes on him will forever regret it.

 

The most common "hits" I hear on him concern his supporting cast. He plays for Alabama! He has great receivers! Well, good lord, did anybody ever stop to think that a primary reason Alabama was so good was that they had a premier QB, or that the reason the wide receivers look so good is that he throws them catchable balls? 

 

I really just don't get it. If I had the first pick and had any reasonable need for a QB, you could put it in the bank that Mac Jones would be the first name called in this year's draft.

 

OK. I vented. That is all.

 

 

RR when asked about what he looks for in a QB prospect noted a couple of things: leadership and physical traits. I'm sure Jones has good leadership qualities but he sorely lacks in physical traits. You completely left that out of the "hits" on him.

 

Yes, supporting cast could potentially be a bit of a hit. But the biggest hits on him are traits and physical ability. He's not mobile, he's not very athletic, he has a weak arm, and he doesn't really do much in the way of off-schedule plays. If this were the 1990s it wouldn't make much difference but in today's NFL coaches, FOs, and offensive systems seem to put a premium on the ability to move, make off-schedule plays, and have those top physical traits.

 

If we picked Jones at 19 I wouldn't necessarily hate the pick, but I wouldn't really be enthusiastic about it because IMO while he likely has a relatively high floor, he also has a low ceiling. I think he'll end up a decent NFL QB but not special. However, if we gave up picks to move up for Jones I would double facepalm.

 

And please stop bringing up Tom Brady. He's the greatest QB to every play the game so his lack of mobility and elite athleticism is a bit offset by that fact. Outside of Brady and Brees (another one of the best to ever play and who's probably about to retire) the elite NFL QBs of today all have high athletic ability, really good arm talent, and are able to make off-schedule plays.

Edited by mistertim
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Just now, Thinking Skins said:

I see yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A -- Adjusted Passing Yards Per Attempt; the formula is (Yds + 20 * TD - 45 * Int) / Att)

 

You're right, I was reading it wrong. It's adjusted Y/A, not air. Air yards is indeed tough to find.

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I liked a lot of what Mond did in that game against Bama. He is going to need a lot of work on mechanics though. Flat footed in the pocket isnt going to get it done in the NFL. And I have never understood the running QB label he has been given. He is a passer that will run occasionally. He isnt really a legit game changer with his legs. I would still prefer Newman. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I liked a lot of what Mond did in that game against Bama. He is going to need a lot of work on mechanics though. Flat footed in the pocket isnt going to get it done in the NFL. And I have never understood the running QB label he has been given. He is a passer that will run occasionally. He isnt really a legit game changer with his legs. I would still prefer Newman. 

I am right with you regardless of Simms take lol. Watching Mond was at times frustrating, you could see all his potential bottled up and when it came out, it was often awkward or inconsistent. 

Right or wrong, considering Newman really didn't play for a year, I gave him more of a pass on those awkward and inconsistent moments.

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I liked a lot of what Mond did in that game against Bama. He is going to need a lot of work on mechanics though. Flat footed in the pocket isnt going to get it done in the NFL. And I have never understood the running QB label he has been given. He is a passer that will run occasionally. He isnt really a legit game changer with his legs. I would still prefer Newman. 

 

Do you think Newman is a legit game changer with his legs? Mond ran less this past season than in 2019 but if you compare their 2019 seasons, Newman had 574 yards rushing and 6 TDs. Mond had 501 yards and 8 TDs.

 

Personally I prefer a QB who can scramble and pick up yards and even TDs when necessary and it's there, but who isn't a "running QB". Running QBs make me nervous because IMO it's basically an injury waiting to happen. I'm honestly amazed that Lamar Jackson hasn't sustained a major injury yet.

 

I do like some of what I've seen from Newman but from watching both him and Mond I think Newman is definitely more raw. Mond has some rawness to him as well for sure, but not quite as much. I think if the system were set up for him, Mond could be a year 1 NFL starter. I don't think the same about Newman.

Edited by mistertim
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36 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

That's true. But I also noted when providing the AY/A that it doesn't appear to have all that much of a correlation to NFL success. Dwayne Haskins had a 10.3 AY/A in college. There are plenty of busts that had better college Y/A, AY/A, and completion percentages than some of the guys on that list of top current NFL QBs.

 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/   They provide all those stats.

 

EDIT: They provide Adjusted Y/A, not Air.

 

 

RR when asked about what he looks for in a QB prospect noted a couple of things: leadership and physical traits. I'm sure Jones has good leadership qualities but he sorely lacks in physical traits. You completely left that out of the "hits" on him.

 

Yes, supporting cast could potentially be a bit of a hit. But the biggest hits on him are traits and physical ability. He's not mobile, he's not very athletic, he has a weak arm, and he doesn't really do much in the way of off-schedule plays. If this were the 1990s it wouldn't make much difference but in today's NFL coaches, FOs, and offensive systems seem to put a premium on the ability to move, make off-schedule plays, and have those top physical traits.

 

If we picked Jones at 19 I wouldn't necessarily hate the pick, but I wouldn't really be enthusiastic about it because IMO while he likely has a relatively high floor, he also has a low ceiling. I think he'll end up a decent NFL QB but not special. However, if we gave up picks to move up for Jones I would double facepalm.

 

And please stop bringing up Tom Brady. He's the greatest QB to every play the game so his lack of mobility and elite athleticism is a bit offset by that fact. Outside of Brady and Brees (another one of the best to ever play and who's probably about to retire) the elite NFL QBs of today all have high athletic ability, really good arm talent, and are able to make off-schedule plays.

 

So let's look at his physical traits and compare him to some very successful NFL QBs. To me, he shares the same skill sets and physical traits as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. He is noted for his ability to maneuver in the pocket. He is not a threat to run, but neither are / were Big Ben or Matthew Stafford or Troy Aikman. As to his arm, he was very successful at Alabama throwing the long ball. Does he have the strongest arm? Probably not, but is not a weak arm and he is accurate with the long throws.

 

I acknowledged that he does not have the running threat that is all the rage with young QBs being selected today. But to me that is more than offset by the skill set he does possess and the OC that has him will put him into an offensive system that takes advantage of the superior skills that he does possess. As to his ceiling, that was my point, and you help make it for me. He is undervalued for the reasons you list, and his ceiling is much higher than you are willing to concede. 

 

Bottom line for me -- I am an unabashed Heinicke fan and would much rather see him be the starter and set the world on fire. But if WTF has the opportunity to take Jones, either at 19 or moving up a bit, I think it would be a huge mistake. Just the way I see it.  

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Releasing Alex Smith, makes me feel like Rivera does not want to win now.

I know that statement doesn't make sense in light of other things.

But if you look at that scenario alone ;

Letting go a successful veteran, to instead go with what will likely be 3 or 4 unproven, extremely young QB's in camp (Allen, Heinicke, Montez, and Rookie Draft Pick)

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Releasing Alex Smith, makes me feel like Rivera does not want to win now.

I know that statement doesn't make sense in light of other things.

But if you look at that scenario alone ;

Letting go a successful veteran, to instead go with what will likely be 3 or 4 unproven, extremely young QB's in camp (Allen, Heinicke, Montez, and Rookie Draft Pick)

 

 

I disagree... it has nothing to do with not wanting to win now.

Reality is that Smith is WAY too expensive for what he is and sees himself as a starter.

Reality for FO is that Smith is all but guaranteed to not be healthy for the full season.. and does not possess the game breaking ability to take this team to the next level. Esp at 24mil. That money can be better used for other parts of the team.

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25 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Releasing Alex Smith, makes me feel like Rivera does not want to win now.

I know that statement doesn't make sense in light of other things.

But if you look at that scenario alone ;

Letting go a successful veteran, to instead go with what will likely be 3 or 4 unproven, extremely young QB's in camp (Allen, Heinicke, Montez, and Rookie Draft Pick)

 

 

I think it means we used the money by releasing Smith and do a new deal with Scherff. 

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21 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Releasing Alex Smith, makes me feel like Rivera does not want to win now.

I know that statement doesn't make sense in light of other things.

But if you look at that scenario alone ;

Letting go a successful veteran, to instead go with what will likely be 3 or 4 unproven, extremely young QB's in camp (Allen, Heinicke, Montez, and Rookie Draft Pick)

 

 

 

Was he a successful veteran?  Leadership, poise, etc...definitely.  Players played well around him.  But him actually slinging the rock around?  Not as much.  Alex Smith, 1 year older, with his leg and how his play got affected from a bone bruise, do you think Alex was going to make a leap in terms of on field play next season?

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All the points above, plus RR said he thought Allen could have had this team in the playoffs.  So he probably sees Allen + name that FA(s) as a better path to victory than Smith alone (and his injury situation).  Maybe a bit of irony here though with Allen’s injury history...

I get the sentiment though - going with inexperience at the qb position seems like a risk if you’re in ‘win now’ mode - which I think is why RR originally said he wanted to add a veteran qb (IIRC).

Edited by skinny21
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1 hour ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Releasing Alex Smith, makes me feel like Rivera does not want to win now.

To the contrary, I think it absolutely means he wants to win now.  Alex at his best plodded our way to some wins, and Alex is far from his best these days.  Alex would also stand to make quite a chunk of change.

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1 hour ago, ODU AGGIE said:

 

So let's look at his physical traits and compare him to some very successful NFL QBs. To me, he shares the same skill sets and physical traits as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. He is noted for his ability to maneuver in the pocket. He is not a threat to run, but neither are / were Big Ben or Matthew Stafford or Troy Aikman. As to his arm, he was very successful at Alabama throwing the long ball. Does he have the strongest arm? Probably not, but is not a weak arm and he is accurate with the long throws.

 

I acknowledged that he does not have the running threat that is all the rage with young QBs being selected today. But to me that is more than offset by the skill set he does possess and the OC that has him will put him into an offensive system that takes advantage of the superior skills that he does possess. As to his ceiling, that was my point, and you help make it for me. He is undervalued for the reasons you list, and his ceiling is much higher than you are willing to concede. 

 

Bottom line for me -- I am an unabashed Heinicke fan and would much rather see him be the starter and set the world on fire. But if WTF has the opportunity to take Jones, either at 19 or moving up a bit, I think it would be a huge mistake. Just the way I see it.  

 

Again, you just happened to pick a couple of QBs who are both probably top 5 to ever play the game, including one who's almost universally acknowledged to be the greatest. Brady and Manning are the exceptions to most modern QBs, not the rule. They also both started playing when mobility wasn't at the premium it is now as well as when there weren't as many rules protecting QBs outside of the pocket. 

 

Jones has shown that he can slide some in the pocket but to say that Big Ben, Stafford, and Aikman were as immobile as Jones is nonsense if you've watched them play. All 3 of those guys have/had plenty of mobility and you can see it when you watch them. Aikman a bit less so, but he was in a completely different era of football.

 

And Jones has a mediocre arm at best. When you watch him throw deep balls much of the time you can tell that he's really putting pretty much everything he has into it and often they still come up a bit short. Another aspect is he had WRs who got SO OPEN that the balls being a tad underthrown didn't really matter too much as they often had at least 5 yards on the DB covering them.

 

His lack of physical traits will mean that OCs have to scale back some things in their system. He might be better in a pure WCO that relies more heavily on a horizontal passing game as opposed to a Air Coryell system that has more vertical concepts and which is what we run. I'd be pretty hesitant when it comes to trusting Jones on things like mid and deep outs which require the QB to really be able to drive the ball. Likewise with intermediate throws into tight windows, which he didn't have to do all that often in college. 

 

Again, I don't necessarily dislike Jones as a prospect; he has some quality traits. I just think that his limitations are such that they'll negatively impact his ceiling as an NFL QB. If WFT took him at 19 I wouldn't hate it, but I wouldn't be very enthusiastic about it. And I think it would be a mistake to give up future picks to move up for him, considering what I think will be his relatively low ceiling.

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The NFL has a serious quality QB shortage and its creating a vacuum.  You got lots of mediocre guys making 20-30 million a year and everyone is still fighting over them.   It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the draft but you would think that teams are going to be a lot more aggressive drafting the position.  Even an average qb at a rookie salary is a pretty damn attractive option for many teams.   High floor guys might be going at a premium and a guy like mac jones who might be the most nfl ready of them all, might go top 10.   He does so many things well on and off the field, that its hard to see him busting completely. This might look like a  pretty smart investment to a qb hungry team in this environment.  

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