Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Thinking Skins]

15 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Again, that's the risk of paying any player, God knows we know that (Haynesworth).....ARob seems like a baller though but what do I know? The one thing you should be confident in is that RR isn't gonna bring in any dogs or guys who want a free pass. Look at how he handled Trent Williams. We're gonna have to trust that our staff knows what they're doing.

I'd also add to this that Cooper wasn't just some arbitrary FA WR. JDR knew all about him from Oakland, right. So it's like Cooper had already passed the locker room test. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I think Mariota has the potential to be a similar level QB here to what Smith has been. Maybe not an obvious major upgrade, but younger, more mobile, probably more durable, and significantly cheaper in terms of money. 
 

Is that good enough? Maybe not longer term. I can see some short/medium term value though.

 

This encapsulates how I feel about Mariota. I think his floor is probably what Smith gave us last year, which honestly with our below-average weapons and awesome defense was good for what ... 5-1? Is that same team going to win the Super Bowl? Probably not, but I think Heinecke's performance (which was a legit top-end QB performance) does show that with the right QB play we are very close to competing with the best. And TBH that game was more the defense getting beat by the GOAT than anything the offense didn't do (at least after halftime).

 

But the ceiling of Mariota is maybe that Heinecke performance in the playoffs, which I think most of us agree, Heinecke likely never recreates.

 

But anyway, Mariota is a cheap option that gets us to a team that can repeat as NFC East champs while we try and find the QB that makes us able to compete with the Chiefs and Bucs of the world. If that isn't in the 2021 off-season that's fine, but Mariota is a safe option to bridge the gap. And there's a small percentage that he has a career revival like Tannehill did and we end up stumbling into the solution ... Mariota is only 27 after all.

 

Getting Mariota also lets you be aggressive if you want to trade up for Trey Lance, someone I am not comfortable being on the field in 2021. But if Mariota/Heinecke are the other 2 QBs on the roster, you can just grayshirt Lance for 2022 or beyond and not worry about the QB play plummeting.

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Well, we don't have a perfect offensive line, but we do have a very good one. PFF ranked them #6 overall at the end of last season. 

 

That being said, I don't think it matters, because I don't think Carr is going to be available. And even if the Raiders DID decide to make him available, it sounds like they'd be asking for a king's ransom (like two 1sts) and that would be a hard pass for me (and probably RR and company as well).

 

We may very well end up with a Marcus Mariota reclamation experiment...which I'm extremely "meh" about. Though I suppose as long as we don't have to give much up for him it's whatever. I wouldn't go past a 4th or 5th. Maybe they'll take a mediocre player for him?

I'm also thinking a 4th or 5th should do it - the longer the Raiders wait, the lower the pick, because they might get nothing for him - given how teams will have to struggle to get below the salary cap. 

 

I think the Skins should take their time - first see what they can get in the draft - be it a QB of the present or the future.        

[Skinsinparadise]

I'll put this here since there was some discussion yesterday including by me about Spotrac's projections.  Their founder was on the radio today, some of his points that are based on the bad cap year coming up:

 

A.  He thinks there will be a bunch of tags

B. 1 year contracts will be common

C.  He thinks it will hurt sort of the lower to mid tier guys the most who he thinks will get veteran minimum type contracts

D.   Expect a lot of restructures and also players released from the numerous teams in cap trouble

E.  He goes he's been off on some projections in the past but that was his best shot at it now

 

Peter King is his column today suggested a huge revenue boost coming from TV contracts that are being negotiated and it will soon be disclosed.  If so, wonder if this helps, where you get a lot of contracts that are staggered with the bigger money coming in 2022?

Edited February 15, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

40 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If so, wonder if this helps, where you get a lot of contracts that are staggered with the bigger money coming in 2022?

 

Most contracts are back loaded anyway to create void years and cut-able contracts. I don't think the prospect of future money will effect long term contract structures, as they already are designed to take advantage of players being able to be removed.

 

What could happen would be the increase of the two-year deal rather than the one.

 

Current FAs will want to cash in on future FA periods where there is more money. Signing a two year deal will give them a small amount this year, and a modest amount next, giving them the oppo to re-enter the market in 2 years.

 

Teams that may be unable to lure specific FAs due to lack of funds this year, would be able to entice those same players by promising them a hearty % of G money in the following year. That way, teams w/ little to no cap space can still acquire talent in the short term, and it wont hurt too bad in the long term if we see that salary cap boon. 

 

Even though the money will not be there for the Mid to low FA market, teams still have to field rosters. I could see a lot of prove-it deal players getting picked up on 2 yr deals instead of the usual 1s.

[Acworth skins fan]

I don’t see TV revenue going up. Viewing is down, and If I read correctly, stations were trying to get commercials near the end of this season. 

[RWJ]

With this new Polian hire, keep Gardner Minshew on the back burners of your minds.  

[Ruzious]

8 minutes ago, Acworth skins fan said:

I don’t see TV revenue going up. Viewing is down, and If I read correctly, stations were trying to get commercials near the end of this season. 

 

I had heard NFL revenue is likely going to up quite a bit after next season - couldn't tell if the reason was legalized gambling.  I doubt if affects the 2021 cap levels.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Ruzious

[PartyPosse]

15 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Completely inaccurate, by the way. 

You're correct. For some reason I thought they were, mainly because I assumed they graded out better because of how quickly Brady got the ball out.

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

This encapsulates how I feel about Mariota. I think his floor is probably what Smith gave us last year, which honestly with our below-average weapons and awesome defense was good for what ... 5-1? Is that same team going to win the Super Bowl? Probably not, but I think Heinecke's performance (which was a legit top-end QB performance) does show that with the right QB play we are very close to competing with the best. And TBH that game was more the defense getting beat by the GOAT than anything the offense didn't do (at least after halftime).

I honestly feel if there was an actual direction in mind years ago, the gist was to build a dominant defense to the point where you wouldn't need a 40 million dollar Watson to thrive. Mariota feels like the ideal guy to lead the offense. He's low risk, terrific in the red zone (didn't he once have a ratio of 32/0 in the redzone?) and wouldn't be a financial crippler. 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 minutes ago, Acworth skins fan said:

I don’t see TV revenue going up. Viewing is down, and If I read correctly, stations were trying to get commercials near the end of this season. 

 

TV rights are what are in play right now.  King expected a whopping 75%-100% for stations and probably Amazon to secure rights.  King is usually plugged in.  Will see. 

[PartyPosse]

TV revenue will never go down. 

[Malapropismic Depository]

Rumor has it, Philly is going to put Wentz on eBay.

Then take the highest offer, after starting the bidding at one 7th Round pick.

A team offered Eagles no picks, and just "a player to be named later", but the Eagles turned that down.

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'll put this here since there was some discussion yesterday including by me about Spotrac's projections.  Their founder was on the radio today, some of his points that are based on the bad cap year coming up:

 

A.  He thinks there will be a bunch of tags

B. 1 year contracts will be common

C.  He thinks it will hurt sort of the lower to mid tier guys the most who he thinks will get veteran minimum type contracts

D.   Expect a lot of restructures and also players released from the numerous teams in cap trouble

E.  He goes he's been off on some projections in the past but that was his best shot at it now

 

Peter King is his column today suggested a huge revenue boost coming from TV contracts that are being negotiated and it will soon be disclosed.  If so, wonder if this helps, where you get a lot of contracts that are staggered with the bigger money coming in 2022?

If all of this plays out the way these dudes are suggesting, some teams on the cusp of greatness, with excellent cap space, could really pounce on some diamonds in the rough or overpaid contracts that get released by teams in cap trouble. 

For example, Zach Ertz; he carries a cap hit of 12.4 million for the Eagles with a base salary of 8.25 mil. Chances are great that he will be released and scooped up by a team that needs a pass catching TE and can be signed to a more reasonable deal like 1 year, 3 - 4 million. And that's just off the top of my head.

Teams like the WFT, if they don't go for broke on the bigger free agents might be wise to save their money for guys who they think may get released and then pounce. 

I'm most intrigued by point c). the mid tier guys being released and available. These are where you can fill holes and add depth, guys like we picked up last year to fill out our RB room, Logan thomas at TE, etc....we did well last year adding these type of impact free agents at bargain basement prices. 

[NickyJ]

Mariota doesn't give me Smith vibes at all. Tannehill did. Tennessee took off after benching Mariota. In a season where all their success came from having the QB hand the ball off to Derrick Henry, I'm impressed that he could somehow hold the offense back.

Edited February 15, 2021 by NickyJ

[goskins10]

2 hours ago, Acworth skins fan said:

I don’t see TV revenue going up. Viewing is down, and If I read correctly, stations were trying to get commercials near the end of this season. 

It was down some last year but still outperforming other shows. They were down 7% but still strong with an average of 14.9M viewers. The highest telecast of th year BTW - Washington Dallas on Thanksgiving. Good time for that! 🙂  

 

There is no reason to think this was anything but temporary. Viewership had gone up the 3 previous years. It's still very profitable programming and there are a lot of networks wanting it in their menu. So TV revenue will be at least neutral if not up.

[mistertim]

IMO the fact that Tannehill has had so much success with pretty much the same supporting cast as Mariota kinda throws cold water on the "Mariota had a horrible supporting cast and that's why he was so mediocre" argument that was posted in a tweet/video earlier.

 

Top QBs always seem to be able to elevate their supporting cast; they don't have to be surrounded by superstars to succeed. It certainly doesn't hurt, but if you look at all the top QBs over the years they've had lots of success with all different types of people to throw to.

 

I think at the end of the day Mariota is just a mediocre QB who will continue to be mediocre. We could do worse, but it's not like he'd be a night and day upgrade over Allen/Heinicke most likely.

Edited February 15, 2021 by mistertim

[PartyPosse]

19 minutes ago, NickyJ said:

Mariota doesn't give me Smith vibes at all. Tannehill did. Tennessee took off after benching Mariota. In a season where all their success came from having the QB hand the ball off to Derrick Henry, I'm impressed that he could somehow hold the offense back.

It’s wild. If you look back on Henry’s game logs throughout his career, up until week 14 of 2018 he was downright awful. His game high prior to that for the year was 58 and then suddenly he exploded for 240 yards and then 170 and never looked back.

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

IMO the fact that Tannehill has had so much success with pretty much the same supporting cast as Mariota kinda throws cold water on the "Mariota had a horrible supporting cast and that's why he was so mediocre" argument that was posted in a tweet/video earlier.

He had an entirely different Henry. Read my above post. To put it into context, more than half of Henry’s yards in 2018 came in the last 4 games and the team. went 3-1 in those games.

Edited February 15, 2021 by PartyPosse

[NickyJ]

11 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

It’s wild. If you look back on Henry’s game logs throughout his career, up until week 14 of 2018 he was downright awful. His game high prior to that for the year was 58 and then suddenly he exploded for 240 yards and then 170 and never looked back.

He had an entirely different Henry. Read my above post. To put it into context, more than half of Henry’s yards in 2018 came in the last 4 games and the team. went 3-1 in those games.

Mariota started all of 2018 through week 6 of 2019. Derrick had 3 more weeks of mediocrity in weeks 7, 8, and 9. He dropped below 100 yards only once for the rest of the season.

Edited February 15, 2021 by NickyJ

[mistertim]

10 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

 

He had an entirely different Henry. Read my above post. To put it into context, more than half of Henry’s yards in 2018 came in the last 4 games and the team. went 3-1 in those games.

 

And you don't think that the Titans suddenly having a much more potent passing attack could have been a source of Henry's explosion? Teams were constantly stacking the box against Mariota but once they realized Tannehill was killing it, they had to respect the pass. I doubt it's a coincidence that Henry started putting up monster games shortly after Tannehill was ripping it up through the air.

[Spaceman Spiff]

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

With this new Polian hire, keep Gardner Minshew on the back burners of your minds.  

 

You hear that @TryTheBeal!???  YOU HEAR THAT?!??!?!?!?!?!!11

[PartyPosse]

4 minutes ago, NickyJ said:

Mariota started all of 2018 through week 7 of 2019. Derrick had 2 more weeks of mediocrity in weeks 8 and 9, the dropped below 100 only once for the rest of the season.

Mariota was decent in the first 5 games of 2019 but got sacked a lot. Henry was terrible for the first half of that season.

[NickyJ]

4 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Mariota was decent in the first 5 games of 2019 but got sacked a lot. Henry was terrible for the first half of that season.

I just see it differently. It could be that Henry remade himself between weeks, or it could be that benching the starting QB made the offense perform differently. Seeing so many other teams, including ours, benching their QBs and doing better, I think the simplest explanation is the answer. We had a clear difference going from Smith to all our different QBs and then back to Smith, we saw it from RG3 to Cousins over an offseason, and even from Jason Campbell to Todd Collins.

 

I don't think Tannehill is a particularly great QB. So for him to have such wildly different results from Mariota says a huge amount to me.

Edited February 15, 2021 by NickyJ

[PartyPosse]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

And you don't think that the Titans suddenly having a much more potent passing attack could have been a source of Henry's explosion? Teams were constantly stacking the box against Mariota but once they realized Tannehill was killing it, they had to respect the pass. I doubt it's a coincidence that Henry started putting up monster games shortly after Tannehill was ripping it up through the air.

Possibly, but I don’t think so. Henry showed the same explosiveness towards the end of 2018. He had over 400 yards in a two game stretch and then had two more games close to 100 after. He’s the type of runner that gets better with more work which is why his seasons always seem to start slowly. Also, by the time Tannehill came in AJ Brown had a few games under his belt. 

[PartyPosse]

3 minutes ago, NickyJ said:

I just see it differently. It could be that Henry remade himself between weeks, or it could be that benching the starting QB made the offense perform differently. Seeing so many other teams, including ours, benching their QBs and doing better, I think the simplest explanation is the answer. We had a clear difference going from Smith to all our different QBs and then back to Smith, we saw it from RG3 to Cousins over an offseason, and even from Jason Campbell to Todd Collins.

 

I don't think Tannehill is a particularly great QB. So for him to have such wildly different results from Mariota says a huge amount to me.

The results weren’t that much different except Henry added an element that forced opponents not to be so aggressive at the line. Mariota was sacked like 30 times prior to being benched in 2019. Henry is just the type of player that once he’s on a roll he’s unstoppable. Simple as that. You just jump on his back and ride the momentum. The team was 3-4 this year when he’s held under 100 yards and 8-1 when over. Same with playoffs. Over 100 yards? Titans are 3-0. Under? 0-3.

[TradeTheBeal!]

19 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

You hear that @TryTheBeal!???  YOU HEAR THAT?!??!?!?!?!?!!11

PUT IT DIRECTLY INTO MY VEINS