Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Est.1974]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We suspected such so no big news

 

 

 

 

Chicago ?

[Darth Tater]

3 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

This combined with our defense=games won?

About 6 to 10.

[RWJ]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We suspected such so no big news

 

 

 

 

It should be with the WFT.  He should retire.  I don't get it.  Why do you jeopardize your health when you have a family that needs you.  He's almost lost his leg, he proved he could come back.  

17 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Chicago ?

Maybe Jacksonville.  Swap Minshew for Smith.  Urban was his college coach.  I hate to see Alex continue to play for health reasons.  

Edited February 14, 2021 by RWJ

[CjSuAvE22]

Alex Smith is virtually untradeable  we were only dumb enough to trade for him 3 years ago nobody in the league today will take him and def not with the amount hes due this year....i dont understand why this pipe dream is even being discussed...hes got to be cut this offseason 

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Chicago ?

 

I doubt anyone would make him the starter.  My guess if not here would be Jax as Trevor's mentor. 

[KillBill26]

28 minutes ago, RWJ said:

 

Maybe Jacksonville.  Swap Minshew for Smith.  Urban was his college coach.  I hate to see Alex continue to play for health reasons.  

Jax does make a lot of sense.  Smith would be a great mentor for trevor lawrence.   And if minshew doesn't work out here, oh well, we would've cut smith anyway, so no big loss.

[wit33]

The Patriots would be a good fit for Alex. That’s my prediction. 
 

Don’t see Alex going to a losing situation or without a chance to start. With that said, the market may force this though. 

 

Edited February 14, 2021 by wit33

[Number 44]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I've seen zero. Normally I'm not a college ball guy because the games are so imbalanced and the talent is so unequal (like rarely do you get a good DL against a good OL or a good WR against a good CB. Its normally these two scrubs going agaist one another or one guy who is a beast against somebody who's soon to be working at home depot, which is how most of the Alambma games I've watched have looked. But I'm doing a statistical analysis to see where it leads me. Hopefully it doesn't differ too much from the main talking heads and people who study film say. 

Alabama played the toughest schedule in college football this year.  The notion that Jones didn't play against anybody doesn't hold water.

 

Smith was the #2 rated WR for Alabama entering the season.  Waddle was the #1, but got injured in game 3.  Smith put up a Heisman season, but to suggest that Jones did nothing without Smith is just wrong.  The guy put up a statistically historic season and had zero bad games.  Character, leadership, and decision making are all strengths, from what I've read.

 

The major knocks against him that I have read are that he played with a good team, which seems like a silly knock to me, and that he not a running threat, which may make him a poor fit for what RR and ST are looking for in a QB.  I've read that NFL scouts and coaches like what they see in Jones, and were impressed by him at the Senior Bowl workouts.  My guess is that he will be drafted in Round 1.  I'm just not sure if he is on WFT's radar.  Denver and New England seem like good possibilities for him.

 

[Est.1974]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I doubt anyone would make him the starter.  My guess if not here would be Jax as Trevor's mentor. 

I can’t see him starting either, he’s tight with Nagy too, so maybe a mentor/back up role there.

[PartyPosse]

7 minutes ago, wit33 said:

The Patriots would be a good fit for Alex. That’s my prediction. 
 

Don’t see Alex going to a losing situation or without a chance to start. With that said, the market may force this though. 

 

Pats consistently have bad line play. Alex wouldn't do well there.

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

Alabama played the toughest schedule in college football this year.  The notion that Jones didn't play against anybody doesn't hold water.

 

Smith was the #2 rated WR for Alabama entering the season.  Waddle was the #1, but got injured in game 3.  Smith put up a Heisman season, but to suggest that Jones did nothing without Smith is just wrong.  The guy put up a statistically historic season and had zero bad games.  Character, leadership, and decision making are all strengths, from what I've read.

 

The major knocks against him that I have read are that he played with a good team, which seems like a silly knock to me, and that he not a running threat, which may make him a poor fit for what RR and ST are looking for in a QB.  I've read that NFL scouts and coaches like what they see in Jones, and were impressed by him at the Senior Bowl workouts.  My guess is that he will be drafted in Round 1.  I'm just not sure if he is on WFT's radar.  Denver and New England seem like good possibilities for him.

 

You may well be right. I'm not a scout but i have always loved the draft. Not as much lately because my team hadn't been investing much into the draft for a long time. But now that I'm excited about it again, I'm trying to see what the numbers tell me without simply  reading the scouting reports. This is an interesting backstory but I do wonder how unique it is. Like id that enough of a reason for there to be a 62 catch disparity between the number 1 and numebr 2 guys? I don't know. If he makes good decisions then this is a moot point. But I see a lot of the other top QBs drafted or who went on to have success have more balance between their top two or three targets. Not saying this dooms Jones, just an interesting statistic. 

[KillBill26]

4 minutes ago, wit33 said:

The Patriots would be a good fit for Alex. That’s my prediction. 

 

I don't think any team will take AS without a young qb already on the roster and a transition plan is in place.  Maybe new england grabs a qb of the future at 15, and pursue him after the draft.

 

It will be interesting to see where AS lands.  Bc if you are a team that's close to making a run, do you want to take a risk on AS and his bum leg.  And if you are AS and had this catastrophic injury and have made millions already, do you want to come back and risk your health to be qb of the jaguars or another bottom feeder?   

[Mooka]

50 minutes ago, RWJ said:

It should be with the WFT.  He should retire.  I don't get it.  Why do you jeopardize your health when you have a family that needs you.  He's almost lost his leg, he proved he could come back.  

 

He loses $13million if he retires.

 

[Number 44]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

a 62 catch disparity between the number 1 and numebr 2 guys

Again, Waddle's injury is obviously a primary reason for that, although Smith would have seen a lot of passes thrown his way even if Waddle wasn't injured.  Metchie and Bolden are good college WRs, but just aren't at the level of Smith and Waddle.  Few are.  Hard to see how completing passes to Smith can be viewed as a negative for Jones, frankly.  If you've got a guy like that, you throw him the ball.  Failing to do so would be a bad thing.

[wit33]

12 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Pats consistently have bad line play. Alex wouldn't do well there.

The Pats are worst collection of talent on offense in the league. Brady was just average there last year and atrocious in their lone playoff game. 
 

Just more of personality and scheme fit is my angle. 

[PartyPosse]

10 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

You may well be right. I'm not a scout but i have always loved the draft. Not as much lately because my team hadn't been investing much into the draft for a long time. But now that I'm excited about it again, I'm trying to see what the numbers tell me without simply  reading the scouting reports. This is an interesting backstory but I do wonder how unique it is. Like id that enough of a reason for there to be a 62 catch disparity between the number 1 and numebr 2 guys? I don't know. If he makes good decisions then this is a moot point. But I see a lot of the other top QBs drafted or who went on to have success have more balance between their top two or three targets. Not saying this dooms Jones, just an interesting statistic. 

Keep in mind Weddle missed almost all of the season and Metchie was only a sophomore. In fact all their other receivers were sophomores. Losing Ruggs and Jeudy plus Weddle this year meant Jones never really had an opportunity to gel with any of his receivers. He leaned on Smith and as long as it kept working why not? Weddle, prior to injury was actually on pace to have an even bigger year than Smith (25/550/4).

[ExoDus84]

6 minutes ago, Mooka said:

He loses $13million if he retires.

 

Smith has made $190M total in his career. I don't think money is the primary driving factor in him playing or retiring. 

[PartyPosse]

4 minutes ago, wit33 said:

The Pats are worst collection of talent on offense in the league. Brady was just average there last year and atrocious in their lone playoff game. 
 

Just more of personality and scheme fit is my angle. 

Tbh, in my opinion the best landing spot would be LA Chargers.

[wit33]

Just now, PartyPosse said:

Tbh, in my opinion the best landing spot would be LA Chargers.

Just don’t see him signing up for a guaranteed back up spot. My guess he hopes a solid team strikes out of other veteran options and lands there late in the process. Post draft. Or even waits into the off season

[RWJ]

11 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

He loses $13million if he retires.

 

A God Driven heathy family life is more important than money.  It's his choice.  He's young enough to go to work or start his own business. 

[Thinking Skins]

8 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

Again, Waddle's injury is obviously a primary reason for that, although Smith would have seen a lot of passes thrown his way even if Waddle wasn't injured.  Metchie and Bolden are good college WRs, but just aren't at the level of Smith and Waddle.  Few are.  Hard to see how completing passes to Smith can be viewed as a negative for Jones, frankly.  If you've got a guy like that, you throw him the ball.  Failing to do so would be a bad thing.

But this still doesn't address my issue. Its not that they had nothing else on the team. Its that Jones hasn't shown that he comes off his primary target. That's what I'm not seeing in the stats. If I had seen a better distribution among the top three I could look and say on any given play even though I know who the number 1, 2 and 3 WRs are, I don't really  know where the ball is going. I can't say that with Jones's stats because it seemed like the ball was almost always going to Smith. 

 

Now, that probably means that he was better at getting the ball to Smith and can throw into some tight windows and beat some good coverages and stuff, but the fact that Jones only has a year starting made me question how ready he is to be an nfl starter. This is another stat in the category that makes me look again. The reasons behind it are cool but it doesn't magically mean that if Waddle had been there that Smith would have better distributed the ball between the top two guys. So I can only go on what he did. Maybe I'm wrong though. 

[Mooka]

2 minutes ago, RWJ said:

A God Driven heathy family life is more important than money.  It's his choice.  He's young enough to go to work or start his own business. 

 

Its not money floating in the sky... he earned that money and he'd just willingly give it up? Hell no. 

 

JMO but we're talking about the NFL. Its all about the money. 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

8 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Keep in mind Weddle missed almost all of the season and Metchie was only a sophomore. In fact all their other receivers were sophomores. Losing Ruggs and Jeudy plus Weddle this year meant Jones never really had an opportunity to gel with any of his receivers. He leaned on Smith and as long as it kept working why not? Weddle, prior to injury was actually on pace to have an even bigger year than Smith (25/550/4).

These are all good points and I'm not dismissing Jones as a prospect. He's lower on my list because he doesn't have enough snaps under center. But as I look through the CFB stats at all the prospects and how they compare to previous QBs drafted, this is just another thing that stands out. Just like I was saying earlier that a lot of the successful QBs had more than 600 attempts in college or are mobile, I'm seeing that a lot of the successful QBs had a better distribution in their final year as a starter. Not saying Jones won't be a good pro, just something else that stands out.

 

I'll also point out though that just because a QB has 600 snaps or a good distribution, it doesn't mean they'll make good pros. David Carr had 900 attempts, 65% completions, had his top guy get 104 and his second guy get 85, but he didn't make it. So this is not something I'm holding up as a gold standard of grading QBs. I'm just trying to see what I can learn from these stats. 

[Number 44]

Just now, Thinking Skins said:

But this still doesn't address my issue. Its not that they had nothing else on the team. Its that Jones hasn't shown that he comes off his primary target. That's what I'm not seeing in the stats. If I had seen a better distribution among the top three I could look and say on any given play even though I know who the number 1, 2 and 3 WRs are, I don't really  know where the ball is going. I can't say that with Jones's stats because it seemed like the ball was almost always going to Smith. 

 

Now, that probably means that he was better at getting the ball to Smith and can throw into some tight windows and beat some good coverages and stuff, but the fact that Jones only has a year starting made me question how ready he is to be an nfl starter. This is another stat in the category that makes me look again. The reasons behind it are cool but it doesn't magically mean that if Waddle had been there that Smith would have better distributed the ball between the top two guys. So I can only go on what he did. Maybe I'm wrong though. 

You have admitted that you have watched him zero times.  Stats don't show anything about what you are talking about.  Ever.  Box score says he pass is complete to player A.  Who was the primary target?  Come on, man.  That Smith had a great season in no way is a negative for Jones.  It just isn't.  Don't worry, it's not just you.  As I said, I read others on this site and elsewhere that somehow claim that the fact that Jones played on a good team is a negative for Jones.  So, therefore, I guess we should only ever draft players from bad teams.  I really don't get that logic at all.  I guess also the theory is that somehow the key to winning a national championship is to recruit excellent players everywhere but quarterback.  That way any old slug can be your quarterback and you will win.  Logical?  I think not.

[Darth Tater]

13 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Smith has made $190M total in his career. I don't think money is the primary driving factor in him playing or retiring. 

Don't know how relevant that is, its more about how much he has now.  Of course, according to most resources I could find, it does look like he could spend about 2M/year without ever running out of money while doing nothing but spending money.  Thing is, I don't think he would enjoy that but I don't think money is why he'd come back.