Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[KDawg]

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Never gonna happen but if the hypothetical question is whether you take the 4th best QB in the draft or R. Wilson at the same draft pick investment cost, anyone who chooses the young guy is crazy. Darn the baggage and lost cap space.

 

Wilson is a HOF QB.

He has already proven he can get you a SB

You hope beyond hope anyone from this draft even sniffs what Wilson currently is.

 

By the time Lance is good enough, if he is ever good enough, to even think about winning a title, you could already have one with Wilson, and at his age, you can expect to get a few more.

 

If the argument was for a fringe established QB, who you are not sure can get you where you want to go, I can see bringing in the rook. If you are looking at the rookie who is an elite prospect, (Trev) I can see that direction as well. If you are looking at a vet QB who is breaking down, sure. But to even compare the 4th best QB prospect, who probably should not even start day 1 due to being raw, to the guy who was in the MVP convo this season and think you can come out ahead is like seven bridges too far.

 

People on here think they are playing 4D chess when they are pushing around checkers pieces. Madness.

 

In the exact parameters of exact same cost (that includes cap), I agree you take Wilson over Lance.

 

But that literally can't be the case.

 

Wilson is due 32, 37, 39 the next three years. His dead cap hit for Seattle trading him is 39M in 2021.

 

 

[HigSkin]

They were just discussing Todd McShay's new draft on Get Up.  Interesting, he's got Lawrence, Wilson, Lance (via trade Carolina) and Fields going 1, 2, 3, 4 and then Mac Jones going #14 to the Bears.  I just don't see how we could trade up there to get one of those guys except Jones.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2021 by HigSkin

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

They were just discussing Todd McShay's new draft on Get Up.  Interesting, he's got Lawrence, Wilson, Lance (via trade Carolina) and Fields going 1, 2, 3, 4 and then Mac Jones going #14 to the Bears.  I just don't see how we could trade up there to get one of those guys except Jones.

I don't see the Dolphins passing on Najee.

 

I also don't see us passing on Collins and Darrisaw given that board.

Edited February 10, 2021 by KDawg

[Skinsinparadise]

I think Justin Fields totally different dude and type of QB than Haskins. 

 

Right now on the QB front for me.

 

Most aggressive move that i'd endorse

A. Trade up high in the draft and get Wilson or Fields

 

2nd most aggressive move I'd endorse

B. Same for Trey Lance

 

3rd more aggressive

C.  Derrick Carr but no crazy haul for him

 

The flier what the heck maybe it works out maybe it doesn't move but if you can get them cheap....

1.  Marcus Mariota

2.  Ryan Fitzpatrick

3.  J. Winston

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

They were just discussing Todd McShay's new draft on Get Up.  Interesting, he's got Lawrence, Wilson, Lance (via trade Carolina) and Fields going 1, 2, 3, 4 and then Mac Jones going #14 to the Bears.  I just don't see how we could trade up there to get one of those guys except Jones.

 

 

 

I just looked at it.  Mac Jones seems to be hot with the mock draft types.  He seems to be fitting in the top 15 in a lot of these.  I don't hate Mac Jones, just have a hard time loving him either, I am undecided about him.   I like aspects of his game.

 

Kardrius Toney seems to be a hot pick for us at 19, I gather they just give us the most highly rated receiver left on their board.    I like Toney but not at 19. 

Edited February 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think Justin Fields totally different dude and type of QB than Haskins. 

 

Right now on the QB front for me.

 

Most aggressive move that i'd endorse

A. Trade up high in the draft and get Wilson or Fields

 

2nd most aggressive move I'd endorse

B. Same for Trey Lance

 

3rd more aggressive

C.  Derrick Carr but no crazy haul for him

 

The flier what the heck maybe it works out maybe it doesn't move but if you can get them cheap....

1.  Marcus Mariota

2.  Ryan Fitzpatrick

3.  J. Winston

 

 

 

 

 

I think we're mostly on the same page. I like Lance more than Wilson. But as I've said before I think Wilson in almost any other QB class is QB2/QB1 in recent years in pre-draft rating. So, I'd love to have Zach Wilson.

 

For me, rookie wise its: Fields > Lance > Wilson

 

Fields is same tier as Lawrence. Wilson is more pro ready than Lance and still has high upside, Lance is more risky but has the highest upside of all four top QBs, in my opinion.

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Great post, thanks for putting it together.

Many of the players with meeting the qualifications are either big time starters or really good #2 QB's.

I like paying attention to the late round guys that fall into these qualifications as players that would be good investments. Start as second or third stringers then minimally be the #2 for years to come and have potential to someday be the starter. It is why on draft day I really liked Brissett. I was surprised NE took him as early as they did though. 

I did think Stindham and Minshew reached the threshold for the list but get the mobility/McSorley factor. I would have been happy for WFT to have grabbed one of those guys.

This years list is rough.

I thought Jones might have had the cut off must not miss by much. He feels like a Parcells/Belichick guy

i get Mond and Trask making the list and on paper, Trask is a fringe first rounder. Then you watch these guys and eh

Newman is the only intriguing one which means probably like Brissett years ago, he will go way earlier than he really should

 

I remember some of the names we picked and just wondering why. In the back of my mind I'd always have the Parcells quote in my mind and think, why are we drafting Todd Husak (three picks after Tom Brady)? He has no stats, no accuracy, no mobility, no noticeable arm. Do we just need a body? That same draft SF drafted Tim Rattay in the 7th. He wasn't an all pro, but he lasted 8 years and had a respectable career. How were his college stats?

2000 Draft

Marc Bulger - 1000+ attempts, 61.3% completion, 7.6 yards per attempt, with little mobility. 
Tom Brady - 600+ attempts, 61% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, with still no mobility. 

Todd Husac - 800 + attempts, 53% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, with no mobility. 

Tim Rattay - 1500+ attempts, 65% completion, 8.2 yards per attempt, with little to no mobility.

 

Three of these guys are guys I'd take a risk on. One is a guy I wouldn't. 

 

We draft Sage Rosenfields. less than 600 attempts, 52 percent completion, 7.1 yards per attempt, but mobile. Not somebody I would draft. Nobody I'd really want in the later rounds in that 2001 draft. 

 

2002 Draft

David Garrard 1100+ completions, 60% completion, 7.7 yards per attempt, 2.3 yards per run. 

Nobody else whose stats show me they're worth the pick. 

 

Its not like this is a foolproof plan and its definitely going to eliminate some people who should be considered and consider some people who should be eliminated. But in an era where so many people are drrafted who simply should not be, this simple test improves the success rate of late round prospects so much. 

 

That's why I'm so high on Kellen Mond and Kyle Trask. Maybe Mac Jones, but not as a first rounder. Monds stats look so similar to David Garrard. Trask and Jones are guys who are not going to kill with their feet so they'd need to be behind a good line or may wind up shell shocked. Another guy I like is Newman, and his stats line up similar to Mitch Tribusky. 

[Ruzious]

25 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

They were just discussing Todd McShay's new draft on Get Up.  Interesting, he's got Lawrence, Wilson, Lance (via trade Carolina) and Fields going 1, 2, 3, 4 and then Mac Jones going #14 to the Bears.  I just don't see how we could trade up there to get one of those guys except Jones.

 

 

 

The worst case scenario would be trading up for Jones.  He's just not that good a prospect.  Slow, average arm, average size.  Nice touch and smart, but he's a 3rd round talent, imo.    

[Est.1974]

38 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

They were just discussing Todd McShay's new draft on Get Up.  Interesting, he's got Lawrence, Wilson, Lance (via trade Carolina) and Fields going 1, 2, 3, 4 and then Mac Jones going #14 to the Bears.  I just don't see how we could trade up there to get one of those guys except Jones.

I think we’re screwed in the draft for trading up, way too much apparent need across the league at QB.

 

More chance we trade picks away for a mid to low tier vet, then trade back from #19 if we still have it to recoup an extra day 2 pick.

[Spaceman Spiff]

12 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Important information for @Spaceman Spiff

 

 

 

Minshew mania!  

[DWinzit]

35 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

I remember some of the names we picked and just wondering why. In the back of my mind I'd always have the Parcells quote in my mind and think, why are we drafting Todd Husak (three picks after Tom Brady)? He has no stats, no accuracy, no mobility, no noticeable arm. Do we just need a body? That same draft SF drafted Tim Rattay in the 7th. He wasn't an all pro, but he lasted 8 years and had a respectable career. How were his college stats?

2000 Draft

Marc Bulger - 1000+ attempts, 61.3% completion, 7.6 yards per attempt, with little mobility. 
Tom Brady - 600+ attempts, 61% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, with still no mobility. 

Todd Husac - 800 + attempts, 53% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, with no mobility. 

Tim Rattay - 1500+ attempts, 65% completion, 8.2 yards per attempt, with little to no mobility.

 

Three of these guys are guys I'd take a risk on. One is a guy I wouldn't. 

 

We draft Sage Rosenfields. less than 600 attempts, 52 percent completion, 7.1 yards per attempt, but mobile. Not somebody I would draft. Nobody I'd really want in the later rounds in that 2001 draft. 

 

2002 Draft

David Garrard 1100+ completions, 60% completion, 7.7 yards per attempt, 2.3 yards per run. 

Nobody else whose stats show me they're worth the pick. 

 

Its not like this is a foolproof plan and its definitely going to eliminate some people who should be considered and consider some people who should be eliminated. But in an era where so many people are drrafted who simply should not be, this simple test improves the success rate of late round prospects so much. 

 

That's why I'm so high on Kellen Mond and Kyle Trask. Maybe Mac Jones, but not as a first rounder. Monds stats look so similar to David Garrard. Trask and Jones are guys who are not going to kill with their feet so they'd need to be behind a good line or may wind up shell shocked. Another guy I like is Newman, and his stats line up similar to Mitch Tribusky. 

Seeing Sage Rosenfeld's name on the bottom ticker of the draft day screen was one of those..."WHO THE HELL" moments. I probably threw something at the TV too.

Never understood the pick. I was certain I was going to see a need position like ILB or G and there were a number of LBs I really liked-Brandon Spoon, Carlos Polk and Edgerton Hartwell

 

Ratay would have made so much more sense than Husak

 

I have watched Mond a few times this year and tried to like him. He would def need to be a guy that holds the clipboard for a bit but if in later rounds would be worthy. 

Trask is tougher for me. He so heavily benefited from a couple defensive mismatch freak weapons that inflated his numbers. Of course this occurred with Jones too but he did show up really well at the end of the year in big games .

Mond, Trask and Newman would be good to take a run for backups with Mond in much later round than the other two. I like Jones but he is going to be way over drafted

[Est.1974]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Most aggressive move that i'd endorse

A. Trade up high in the draft and get Wilson or Fields

 

2nd most aggressive move I'd endorse

B. Same for Trey Lance

 

3rd more aggressive

C.  Derrick Carr but no crazy haul for him

I think I’d go in the opposite direction.

 

Firstly, I’d rather mildly overpay in a trade for Carr.

 

Secondly, I like Lance as my rookie choice, so I advocate a reasonable trade up for him, but that will also require a vet placeholder for 2021.

 

Thirdly, its a desperation jump up to the top of the board. Although the trade cost of that is seriously unpalatable. I’d rather go completely all in for Watson tbh.

[dyst]

9 hours ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Not saying much.  I'd take a 75 year old Chris Berman at QB over Darnold. 

 

Woooop!

To us yes, but Darnold seems to have his support team, as some even want to give up a 2nd round pick.

[Ball Security]

57 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don't see the Dolphins passing on Najee.

 

I also don't see us passing on Collins and Darrisaw given that board.

They have money and could go after Aaron Jones, then use that pick for something else.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

They have money and could go after Aaron Jones, then use that pick for something else.

Yup. I'm referring to the current state of affairs. Moves like that change absolutely everything. But you are 100% correct.

[HigSkin]

 

[Riggo#44]

Well, that's interesting--that is a lot of money for one game. A couple of thoughts--Smith is gone, but I think that was a foregone conclusion. Kyle Allen is gone.  It also eliminates trading or signing the dreck out there, thankfully.

 

Does it take moving up for one of the big 4 off the table too?

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Riggo#44 said:

Well, that's interesting--that is a lot of money for one game. A couple of thoughts--Smith is gone, but I think that was a foregone conclusion. Kyle Allen is gone.  It also eliminates trading or signing the dreck out there, thankfully.

 

Does it take moving up for one of the big 4 off the table too?

I don't think Kyle Allen is gone necessarily.

[Skinsinparadise]

I just listened to two back to back Keim podcasts, one where he hit what he heard about what they are thinking on QB and the other was Rivera being interviewed directly.  I'll start with Heinicke

 

On Heinicke:  Keim said the team and league sees him as backup but that's a nice climb up for a dude who wasn't even in the league for most of this season

 

Rivera on Heinicke.  Easy to see he's intrigued but also concerned.  Made four points:

 

A.  He thought he was excellent in the short sample

B.  He knows him well, he's had him around for three seasons

C.  Got hurt in the two starts he played in

D.  It's different to play when you got nothing to lose and feel cofmortable to let it all fly.  Implying that was the case when Heinicke played.  It's a different ball game when you play when you have something to lose.

[Simmsy]

2 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Well, that's interesting--that is a lot of money for one game. A couple of thoughts--Smith is gone, but I think that was a foregone conclusion. Kyle Allen is gone.  It also eliminates trading or signing the dreck out there, thankfully.

 

Does it take moving up for one of the big 4 off the table too?

Do we know that Smith and Allen are definitely gone?

[HigSkin]

1 minute ago, Riggo#44 said:

Well, that's interesting--that is a lot of money for one game. A couple of thoughts--Smith is gone, but I think that was a foregone conclusion. Kyle Allen is gone.  It also eliminates trading or signing the dreck out there, thankfully.

 

Does it take moving up for one of the big 4 off the table too?

 

I don't think it means Kyle is gone, but like you mentioned it signals more about Alex.  Unfortunately, that's what backups are going to get in this market.  

[Thinking Skins]

22 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Seeing Sage Rosenfeld's name on the bottom ticker of the draft day screen was one of those..."WHO THE HELL" moments. I probably threw something at the TV too.

Never understood the pick. I was certain I was going to see a need position like ILB or G and there were a number of LBs I really liked-Brandon Spoon, Carlos Polk and Edgerton Hartwell

 

Ratay would have made so much more sense than Husak

 

I have watched Mond a few times this year and tried to like him. He would def need to be a guy that holds the clipboard for a bit but if in later rounds would be worthy. 

Trask is tougher for me. He so heavily benefited from a couple defensive mismatch freak weapons that inflated his numbers. Of course this occurred with Jones too but he did show up really well at the end of the year in big games .

Mond, Trask and Newman would be good to take a run for backups with Mond in much later round than the other two. I like Jones but he is going to be way over drafted

I'm kinda at the point where I want whoever is there in the third. I don't care what people say, we're notgoing to see them all gone by the end of the third. Heck, the most we've seen in the last 22 years is 7 QBs taken in the first three rounds and years where tehre are 4 or more QBs taken in the first there are generally 1 or none in the second, so there's a good chance that if Jones is indeed the fifth QB taken, that all three of Mond, Trask and Newman will be available in the 2nd somone else available in the third and someone else in the 4th.

 

And this is not even thinking about the idea that somebody can take a flyer on somebody we thought would go much later in the second or third. Could that be newman? Could that be Book? Elhinger? If one of these guys goes in rounds 2 or 3, then we can get Mond od Trask much easier.  

[TradeTheBeal!]

That is serious money.  Very happy for HineyHiney!

 

Now let’s nab Darnold for a 3rd, sign Allen Robinson and go “Fat Boy Crazy” in this draft.

 

Whos with me?!?

[Skinsinparadise]

I see some on twitter panicky about the price.  the thing is whenever you see incentives they often can be some loud incentives in other words the base salary might not be that high. 

 

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

D.  It's different to play when you got nothing to lose and feel cofmortable to let it all fly.  Implying that was the case when Heinicke played.  It's a different ball game when you play when you have something to lose.

This is exactly where my reservations for Heinicke lie, beyond his stature and lack of tape.  The playoff game was his 'lose yourself' moment.  Leave everything out there as it was probably his last chance to carve a spot for himself in the league.  I'm glad we signed him on, but I'd be lying if that $8.75M isn't more than I was expecting him to get.

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Now let’s nab Darnold for a 3rd, sign Allen Robinson and go “Fat Boy Crazy” in this draft.

 

Whos with me?!?

 

Out on Darnold. He is Haskins bad. I'm still in on trading up for Lance and letting him sit. Would rather sign Davis from Tennessee, personally.

 

Who's with ME?!