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Rookie QB or Veteran QB for 2021???


Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season(2021)???  

226 members have voted

  1. 1. Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season (2021)???

    • Draft QB first round
    • Rookie QB from outside first round
    • Sign FA Veteran
    • Trade for Veteran
    • Stand Pat with one of the QBs we have on Roster, draft QB in 2022 Draft iinstead
    • I don't know
    • I don't care
    • I'm tired of 5 year development plans burned to the ground in less then 2
  2. 2. Rookie QB or Veteran QB for next season (2021)??? - (Feb 2020)

    • Draft QB first round
    • Rookie QB from outside first round
    • Sign FA Veteran
    • Trade for Veteran
      0
    • Stand Pat with one of the QBs we have on Roster, draft QB in 2022 Draft iinstead
    • I don't know
      0
    • I don't care
    • I'm tired of 5 year development plans burned to the ground in less then 2
      0


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34 minutes ago, RWJ said:

We know as much as they know.  Not pleased with our F.O..  They are here as RR wanted them but at sometime you need to be aggressive.  Key point which we have some kind of idea (Stafford and what they were going to give up for him) how expensive or how cheap will they be.  I know they said all this via what I am reading in this thread.  Actions speak louder than words!

 

Sometimes you need to be aggressive?  This team has spent far to much time being to aggressive than not being aggressive enough.

Edited by carex
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6 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Interesting. Why would you have Darnold above Trubisky? I admit I haven't watched much of these guys play, but here are some stats I was looking at: 

 

Mariota: 

QBRs: 48, 59, 58, 53, 35, 98

Ratings: 91, 95, 79, 92, 92, 83

Comp%: 62, 61, 62, 68, 59, 60

ypa: 7.6, 7.6, 7.1, 7.6, 7.5, 8.1

INT: 10, 9, 15, 8, 2, 1

FUM: 10, 9, 2, 9, 3, 0

1Ds: 142, 157, 149, 121, 50, 11

1Ds/Comp: 61, 56, 53, 53, 52, 64

 

Darnold: 

QBRs: 45, 45, 40

Ratings: 77, 84, 72

Comp%: 57, 61, 59

ypa: 6.9, 6.9, 6.1

int: 15, 13, 11

fum: 5, 11, 4

1Ds: 130, 147, 109

1Ds/Comp: 54, 53, 50

 

Trubisky: 

QBRs: 32, 71, 41 ,61

Ratings: 77, 95, 83, 93

Comp: 59, 66, 63, 67

ypa: 6.6, 7.4, 6.1, 6.9

int: 7, 12 ,10, 8

fum: 10, 6, 5, 6

1Ds: 100, 163, 156, 124

1Ds/Comp: 51, 56, 48, 62

 

I'm definitely not a rah rah Trubisky guy, but it seems like in just about every category (especially if you discount his rookie year) he's better than Darnold in just about every category. Even in his worse year (2019), he was just about on par with what Darnold is putting out. Mariota looks like he was playing better for the first part of his career and then hit a wall that last year in Tennessee. So the question is what Mariota would we be getting? Those first 4 years where he seemed to be on the rise, or the last year? 

 

But in terms of what it would cost I think I would say 

1. Tribusky

2. Mariota

3. Darnold

 

Good question.  My opinion is mostly shaped on the eye test and the few games I've watched of each and what I remember about them coming out of college.

 

Tribusky from what I understand doesn't throw the ball downfield very much. I remember a chart they pulled during the Saints playoff loss and everything was around the line of scrimmage..screens and check downs with a few QB designed runs. Greg Cosell often jumps on The Herd and he has breakdowns on how Tribusky struggles to throw the deep ball and is essentially a front foot thrower.

 

Darnold from what I understand is more willing and able to throw the ball downfield. I know your stats show a similar yards per attempt so what I'm seeing may not be actually true; However my view is Darnold is a gunslinger who is prone to turnovers(interceptions and fumbles). Combine that with the narrative of being under Adam Gase who is not highly thought of as an offensive coach well atleast during his Jets years.  Compared to Tribusky who has a coach that is more respected in that regard.

 

Tribusky to me is an athlete playing qb and Darnold is a qb who is athletic. 

 

The Heinicke experience has also shaped my perspective on this. Heinicke proved that this offense is more then dink and dunk.  He successfully executed and attempted(drops) passes that were downfield. I want that ability in my QB not another dink and dunk artist. 

 

The Heinicke game, Alex Smith vs Detroit, Haskins to Terry (Ravens game), Kyle Smith to Terry(Dallas game) is the only time I can remember where we pushed the ball down field. 

 

This is what made Stafford so appealing and now Derek Carr. 

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1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I personally think we get one or two games out of him and them he gets injured and done for the year.

 

I honestly don't think he'd win the job at all, even if we don't do anything else at QB. 

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So in summary, the Washington brain trust provided zero substance to what their plans are.  As they should.

 

Anyone trying to diagnose the statements to mean what they are or aren’t going to do about the QB position is wasting their time at this point.

 

Of everything said, the only conclusion I can come to is that there is a very minimal chance that Alex is with the team next year and Kyle Allen will be.  Which we all pretty much knew anyways.

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2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

So in summary, the Washington brain trust provided zero substance to what their plans are.  As they should.

 

Anyone trying to diagnose the statements to mean what they are or aren’t going to do about the QB position is wasting their time at this point.

 

Of everything said, the only conclusion I can come to is that there is a very minimal chance that Alex is with the team next year and Kyle Allen will be.  Which we all pretty much knew anyways.

 

 

287 pages summed up in 3 short sentences. 

 

Standing Ovation Applause GIF by The Maury Show - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

 

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Having not watched them in detail but looking at things like play by play of their games and some stats, I'm seeing a few things like tiers of QB and it seems like there's a tier of Cousins and Carr (and whether you want to say Cousins is above Carr or Carr is above Cousins or they're equal is not the point of this), but comparing their stats on the aggregate to the others, they seem to be above the next tier of guys I've been looking at (and I can add a healthy Alex Smith to this tier).

 

Then it seems like Mariota is in a second tier. He has numbers that are comparable or better than the tiers below him in just about all the areas I've been looking at (over his career). He did have the bad year and never became the franchise QB but showed he can play in this league. I could also put Bridgewater in this tier based on last year or the tier below if we look at him early in his career as well. 

 

Then it seems like Trubisky is in the next tier and the tier below that is Darnold.

 

I am not impressed with Darnold. I'm not in love with any of these guys but the more I look into it in my spare time, the more his numbers are just blah. OK, so he had no weapons. Compare his career to Alex in 2018 or to any of the years of any of these other QBs I've been looking at and he has done just about nothing. He hasn't even put up impressive TD numbers or yardage numbers like Bridgewater or some of the other QBs. 

 

I'm really not calling for any of these guys, but I'm fully expecting us to sign or trade for one of them so I'm trying to prepare myself for it. And I can really be ok with the potential behind anything but Darnold. 

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2 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

If you want a QB,  whether that's Watson , Carr or a rookie ; expect to overpay. The demand this year, outpaces the supply. 

 

That's the inherent problem. Don't buy at the peak, it's supposed to be buy-low and sell-high. Not that trades are normally a great route to acquire a QB anyhow. But it's all the more reason to not make a panic desperation type move. Free agency is still an option and at least it's just money. Maybe try a stop gap that way and revisit in a year if everyone else keeps acting crazy.

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10 minutes ago, SkinsFootball said:

Tribusky from what I understand doesn't throw the ball downfield very much. I remember a chart they pulled during the Saints playoff loss and everything was around the line of scrimmage..screens and check downs with a few QB designed runs. Greg Cosell often jumps on The Herd and he has breakdowns on how Tribusky struggles to throw the deep ball and is essentially a front foot thrower.

 

I thought about this and I thought about the Alex stat (which I don't really care for or about), but I was more interested in how many of their completions are going for first downs. And in 2018 and 2020, Tribusky was getting over 55% of his completions going for first downs. That's a number that Darnold never reached. What that shows to me is that a lot of his completions are going for first downs and continuing drives. 

 

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34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Sounds like you got an image of Darnold as a dude who just lets it fly like a Fitzpatrick and Winston -- so big offensive numbers but also many turnovers from his efforts to keep making big plays?

 

This year looked bad from afar, but thought after his first two seasons he was an ascending QB. Not sure there was a more dysfunctional environment in the last 10 years than that of the Jets the past 3 seasons. That counts for something, right? How much, is probably dependent on if a person was a supporter of him coming out of college or liked the flashes he has shown while in the NFL. Maybe It’s my subconscious remembering him lighting up Washington 2 years ago lol.
 

He hasn’t been as TO prone as those two, but also hasn’t put up the numbers those guys have either.

 

Let’s go with he’s a rich mans Fitzpatrick, in terms of talent, but has some displayed similar splashes of moxie. He’s a bit quicker and faster than Winston, which I value greatly, though Winston is an awkwardly skilled runner. I don’t hate the idea Winston, but have become ultra wary of guys with maturity issues. 

Edited by wit33
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Darnold is no gunsligner.  He's not a checkdown guy.  But plenty of short passes in the mix.   His YPA this season was similar to his career in general.   Yet, throwing short his completion percentage is under 60% and he has a bad TD/INT ratio.   He had turnover issues in college too.  Part of the rap before the draft was whether he'd conquer this problem in the NFL and the short answer to that has been a loud no.

 

This is IMO is a fair and balanced article on Darnold IMO.  They made the point that you never know he might be a reclamation project but its not trending well and they make the point and I agree with it is that he doesn't really have any trait that is special.  The thing I liked about Darnold before that draft is for a big dude he moves laterally well -- he's a good bootleg type QB.  But otherwise he's not very accurate, he has turnover tendencies (both fumbles and INTs) he has decent arm strength but doesn't have a rocket.  He's a big dude and moves well for a big dude but isn't really fast. 

 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/nfl/story/2020-12-21/nfl-jets-trevor-lawrence-sam-darnold-usc

 

 

PFF ranked the percentage of passes that QBs threw over 20 yards, Darnold is dead last among the 50 they ranked.  Ironically Trubisky was next to last.  In other words, he wasn't throwing deep that much.   

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-03 at 2.08.49 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-03 at 2.31.23 PM.png

23 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Let’s go with he’s a rich mans Fitzpatrick, in terms of talent, but has some displayed similar splashes of moxie. He’s a bit quicker and faster than Winston, which I value greatly, though Winston is an awkwardly skilled runner. I don’t hate the idea Winston, but have become ultra wary of guys with maturity issues. 

 

Where is the similar splashes of moxie thought coming from? 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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47 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

What I said in an earlier post.  We know as much about the QB situation as they do.  Read #3 from JP "They don't know the plan at QB"  Sad and unprepared.  I know I am being hard but you have to have a Plan A, B, C, D etc..  No excuses.  That should should cause pause for all those thinking about our new analytical talking heads!  Disappointment!!!

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2 minutes ago, RWJ said:

What I said in an earlier post.  We know as much about the QB situation as they do.  Read #3 from JP "They don't know the plan at QB"  Sad and unprepared.  I know I am being hard but you have to have a Plan A, B, C, D etc..  No excuses.  That should should cause pause for all those thinking about our new analytical talking heads!  Disappointment!!!


They absolutely have some kind of plan in place. They just don’t know what’s going to pan out and they are trying their hand at every table.

 

You’re jumping to a lot of conclusions based on a press conference that the theme seemed to be, “we aren’t going to really talk much about what we’re doing because it’s not professional”

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2 minutes ago, KDawg said:


They absolutely have some kind of plan in place. They just don’t know what’s going to pan out and they are trying their hand at every table.

 

You’re jumping to a lot of conclusions based on a press conference that the theme seemed to be, “we aren’t going to really talk much about what we’re doing because it’s not professional”

You interpret it how you will.  I don't get the same vibe as yours and #3 read how it read.  They don't KNOW the plan at QB.  Simple.  

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12 minutes ago, RWJ said:

What I said in an earlier post.  We know as much about the QB situation as they do.  Read #3 from JP "They don't know the plan at QB"  Sad and unprepared.  I know I am being hard but you have to have a Plan A, B, C, D etc..  No excuses.  That should should cause pause for all those thinking about our new analytical talking heads!  Disappointment!!!

 

lol, i know you are upset because Kyle Smith is gone.  But i don't think Fiinlay means it as literally as you are taking it.

 

The QB market isn't all under their control.  There are moving parts.  For example lets take Carr.  If they like him as some say they do then they likely will chase him if he hits the market just like they did for Stafford.  But they can't control if he hits the market or not.  They can't control it if the Raiders would accept what they deem is fair market value.  They can't control other bids, etc.

 

They clearly have specific targets.  Keim this morning said so.  But they can't reveal that by NFL rules if these players are under contract elsewhere.  Heck Rivera didn't even want to talk about what he offered for Stafford.  He didn't want to talk about whether Alex is coming back for sure.  He didn't want to say if he wants Cam.  It's not in his best interest to tell the world what he wants to do but also in some cases he can't.  Hurney flat out said that to make trades, you don't want leaks because then other teams won't trust you.

 

But I've been saying for a long time I have zen approach to this.  Deal with what comes.  Have a specific price.  And if you don't get the dude go to the next target.  That's smart IMO.  

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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