Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

14 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

How would everyone feel if we did surprisingly end up with Matt Ryan?..I could see something like that happening..does he fit what we're trying to do?

He’s not the optimal answer, but def better than what we have.  Given his current cap constraints who knows how it could play out. Maybe Atlanta either eats some of the $ to send him packing or pays draft Capital to get out of it. You never know until you ask. Blank has stated that no one on the team is untouchable. He’d only be a 1 or 2 year placeholder. 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He’s an absolute upgrade to the “known” aspect of our QB room. If Heinicke turns out to be consistently what he was against Tampa and able to stay healthy that changes things. But that’s obviously not a sure fire bet the farm situation. 
 

He is better than both as they are currently known. He is a top 15 QB in the league.

 

I wouldn’t give up a first for him by any stretch. But if the team did for a single first I wouldn’t be too frustrated. If they could get him for a third I would pounce on that so fast your head would spin. 

 

Yeah that's where I am with Carr as well for the most part. My "yeah, I'd feel good about that" spot would be a 2nd. I'd be ecstatic with a 3rd but I see that as incredibly unlikely. If Rivera and Co. did give up a 1st for him I wouldn't be too happy about it but I'd trust that they truly believed he was the right guy and hope they weren't simply panicking because of missing out on Stafford.

[CjSuAvE22]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that's where I am with Carr as well for the most part. My "yeah, I'd feel good about that" spot would be a 2nd. I'd be ecstatic with a 3rd but I see that as incredibly unlikely. If Rivera and Co. did give up a 1st for him I wouldn't be too happy about it but I'd trust that they truly believed he was the right guy and hope they weren't simply panicking because of missing out on Stafford.

Im ok with a second ideally it would be a third and nothing more, Carr would def be an upgrade over what we have now that's not a question and is only 29

[tmandoug1]

I find it hard to believe LV would give up Carr this year and ride with Mariota and an unknown backup. But for ****s and giggles let's say Gruden doesn't like him that sends a signal to the league that he doesn't want him which would make a 3rd and 6th/7th doable. But would we be trading for a Kirk clone? Ya never know until you try.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

The dream scenario is they get to the post season again with Allen and Taylor, lose in the divisional round, while Lance sits on the bench ready to take over the following 4 years on a rookie deal. Making it realistic to keep Montez, Young, Allen, Matt, and Payne all together for a nice 3-4 season window (interchange the pieces behind them with young studs on rookie deals or veterans). 

 

Dream would be right.  This Lance stuff to me comes off like hey if you can't get the steak because its not affordable, no problem just get the lobster.   Lance is top 5 in some mocks and rarely escapes the top 10.  Maybe the insiders are wrong and he drops down the draft like a rock but i am not counting on it.   My guess right now is to get Lance it will require two #1's and a 2nd rounder.

 

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

How some have transitioned to Carr is mildly perplexing. I can legitimately argue Kyle Allen has more immediate value to the team next year than Carr, due to history with staff and scheme. 

 

 

My transition to it is on the chance that the Junkies are right (they've been right before) that they like Carr.  To me Carr is easily a better Qb than Allen.   Allen was ranked dead last by PFF in his one full season as a starter.    I don't see how they are that comparable. 

 

Having said that, I am not rooting against Rivera to get what he wants.  If he decides the only QB available that is better than Kyle Allen was Stafford so now he's out of the Qb business then I am cool with it.  But judging by what Keim said in his latest podcast, that doesn't sound like that's true.  And you might want to buckle up for a sequel chase or two.  

 

 

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

My hope is Ron does have legit faith in Kyle Allen and doesn’t feel forced to make a QB move. I’m okay with being aggressive for a guy they believe in and love but not for a QB they like. 

 

If they want to chase someone they like versus love, I am 100% on board.  This is shopping for a QB not a FS.  You don't typically shop at Tiffanys for Qbs.  You are typically shopping for good ones not great ones.  The great ones don't tend to hit the market. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Carr isn't bad but he's just so boring and uninspiring. This fan base turned on Cousins who is a MUCH better player. I'd honestly rather just roll with Heinecke/Allen and take my chances then go with Carr. Its just not enough of an upgrade to get the juices flowing.

[mistertim]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Carr isn't bad but he's just so boring and uninspiring. This fan base turned on Cousins who is a MUCH better player. I'd honestly rather just roll with Heinecke/Allen and take my chances then go with Carr. Its just not enough of an upgrade to get the juices flowing.

 

IMO there really isn't any evidence that Kirk is a "MUCH better player" than Carr. I'd say they're about equal. (Actually PFF has Kirk rated just below Carr at #11 for 2020).

[carex]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Dream would be right.  This Lance stuff to me comes off like hey if you can't get the steak because its not affordable, no problem just get the lobster.   Lance is top 5 in some mocks and rarely escapes the top 10.  Maybe the insiders are wrong and he drops down the draft like a rock but i am not counting on it.   My guess right now is to get Lance it will require two #1's and a 2nd rounder.

shopping for good ones not great ones.  The great ones don't tend to hit the market. 

 

one of these guys is going to fall, it happens every year it seems like.  Some mocks have people trading around so the first four picks are the top four QBs  but it doesn't happen because some teams want the top edge rusher or LT or CB more than they want extras picks.  And there's five of them.  If Dan Marino can be 27 and Aaron Rodgers can be 24 and Lamar Jackson can be 32 then one of these guys can be 19, and why not the one from the smallest school

[wit33]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He’s an absolute upgrade to the “known” aspect of our QB room. If Heinicke turns out to be consistently what he was against Tampa and able to stay healthy that changes things. But that’s obviously not a sure fire bet the farm situation. 
 

He is better than both as they are currently known. He is a top 15 QB in the league.

 

I wouldn’t give up a first for him by any stretch. But if the team did for a single first I wouldn’t be too frustrated. If they could get him for a third I would pounce on that so fast your head would spin. 

What does top 15 even equate to as value when there are 25-30 legitimate options to compare him to? He’s pro and has value, but he falls into where I have an extreme point of view— he should be a 5% of cap kind QB, he’ll be over 12% if cap lands at $180mil next year. 

 

He doesn’t create off-schedule consistently enough for me, but I wouldn’t hate the move for  a 3rd and change. If a first is given, then you must extend him and commit the next 3 or seasons to Derek Carr, that I do hate. Gruden hates all his QBs, but it must say something that a large faction of the fan base wants to get rid of him and Gruden potentially entertaining a trade. 

 

14 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm not a huge Carr fan, but to say he's not an upgrade on Allen is silly. Yes, Allen has the advantage of having familiarity with the system, but Carr is a superior QB. Carr had a PFF rating last season of 84.7 (which put him at #10 overall in the NFL per their metrics) and Allen had a 68.5. In 2019 when he started most of the season, he had a 49.7.

 

Just an argument, don’t claim to stand on anything firm or historical data. It would require one to assign value to Allen earning 1-2mil versus Carr at 22mil and Allen having 4 years of experience in the scheme and a relationship with coaches and players. 
 

I would agree if we were to compare and project their speculative value over say a 3 year window Carr would come out ahead. But, if projecting just for next year value, there’s an argument to be made. 
 

As I mentioned with other response @KDawg I fully own that I have an extreme position on what QBs 14-23 should be paid. Though, new norms appear to be taking shape in the NFL with the good to elite separating themselves from the pack of average to above from a pay scale standpoint. Carr at 5% is fair value. 

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah that's where I am with Carr as well for the most part. My "yeah, I'd feel good about that" spot would be a 2nd. I'd be ecstatic with a 3rd but I see that as incredibly unlikely. If Rivera and Co. did give up a 1st for him I wouldn't be too happy about it but I'd trust that they truly believed he was the right guy and hope they weren't simply panicking because of missing out on Stafford.

 

I am much bigger on Stafford than Carr but I wouldn't hate Carr. 

 

This part isn't directed to you.  As for people panicking about Rivera possibly giving up too much in a panic type deal, I don't see what the concerns are?  What he offered for Stafford was pretty much exactly what most of us thought was fair value.  If he bids for Carr or whomever, i doubt he's going to grossly overpay.

 

And I got to trust the dude who brought Kyle Allen and Tyler Heinicke to Carolina allong with just about his whole coaching staff from Carolina and his old Carolina GM would have a stronger clue than we all do about what both dudes are capable of versus who else is on the market.

 

Specific to Carr, I'd think his old head coach who is on staff would have some inside information on the dude and could also do apples to apples comparisons.

 

I am not worried about Rivera botching this.  I'll run with whatever he does even if it isn't one of my players so to speak.  I'll wait for Rivera to fail big time on a personnel move before questioning his judgment. 

 

Judging by what Finlay and Keim said if Watson ends up truly hitting the market, I gather some on the thread might have a lot of angst because it seems like both think they'd be all in. .   Tough to read the tea leaves as to their next move but its not tough when it comes to Watson, it seems clear they'd be all in. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[JSSkinz]

I think what intrigues me about Carr is that he has 2 years left on his contract with cap hits of $22M in 2021 and 2022, that's a good number for us, I definitely wouldn't be interested in extending him so he has to be ok with that.

 

He's a team guy, he'll buy into Rons culture and be a professional.

 

The 2 years he has left on his deal gives us 3 drafts to find our QB of the future so while its possible we can get some good play out of Carr its also a bridge to our next QB.

 

I think it might be a solid move.

 

[wit33]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Dream would be right.  This Lance stuff to me comes off like hey if you can't get the steak because its not affordable, no problem just get the lobster.   Lance is top 5 in some mocks and rarely escapes the top 10.  Maybe the insiders are wrong and he drops down the draft like a rock but i am not counting on it.   My guess right now is to get Lance it will require two #1's and a 2nd rounder.

 

 

My transition to it is on the chance that the Junkies are right (they've been right before) that they like Carr.  To me Carr is easily a better Qb than Allen.   Allen was ranked dead last by PFF in his one full season as a starter.    I don't see how they are that comparable. 

 

Having said that, I am not rooting against Rivera to get what he wants.  If he decides the only QB available that is better than Kyle Allen was Stafford so now he's out of the Qb business then I am cool with it.  But judging by what Keim said in his latest podcast, that doesn't sound like that's true.  And you might want to buckle up for a sequel chase or two.  

 

 

 

If they want to chase someone they like versus love, I am 100% on board.  This is shopping for a QB not a FS.  You don't typically shop at Tiffanys for Qbs.  You are typically shopping for good ones not great ones.  The great ones don't tend to hit the market. 

Ughhh... no way do I want to commit to a Derek Carr 3 year window. If a 1st is given (I can barely get my self to write that), then you 100% must extend him, maybe same situation with a 2nd. I would be okay with a 3rd and some change, but that’s getting into a large pool of subjectivity. 

[Skinsinparadise]

47 minutes ago, carex said:

 

one of these guys is going to fall, it happens every year it seems like.  Some mocks have people trading around so the first four picks are the top four QBs  but it doesn't happen because some teams want the top edge rusher or LT or CB more than they want extras picks.  And there's five of them.  If Dan Marino can be 27 and Aaron Rodgers can be 24 and Lamar Jackson can be 32 then one of these guys can be 19, and why not the one from the smallest school

 

 

Often QBs sre surprise risers as opposed to fallers.  2019 is fresh in our memories as to being the opposite with Haskins and Lock whereas Jones went higher than expected.  I'd bet money here with anyone that Lance doesn't fall to 19.  The only interesting one I think might be Mac Jones, he's all over the place in mocks. 

 

Dudes with Lance's type of talent typically don't fall to 19.  I know some here disagree but Haskins IMO didn't have off the charts talent and I do believe Keim when he said from asking around there was a good chance Haskins would have fallen to the 2nd if it weren't for us taking him at 15.  

 

I'd add a ton of teams need Qbs this time unlike in 2019.   Supply-demand isn't equal from draft to draft. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

3 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

I think what intrigues me about Carr is that he has 2 years left on his contract with cap hits of $22M in 2021 and 2022, that's a good number for us, I definitely wouldn't be interested in extending him so he has to be ok with that.

 

He's a team guy, he'll buy into Rons culture and be a professional.

 

The 2 years he has left on his deal gives us 3 drafts to find our QB of the future so while its possible we can get some good play out of Carr its also a bridge to our next QB.

 

I think it might be a solid move.

 

Why trade for a QB you don’t want to extend lol

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

Ughhh... no way do I want to commit to a Derek Carr 3 year window. If a 1st is given (I can barely get my self to write that), then you 100% must extend him, maybe same situation with a 2nd. I would be okay with a 3rd and some change, but that’s getting into a large pool of subjectivity. 

 

i don't have a strong feeling about Carr one way or another but delving into him some last night he comes off better than I originally thought.

 

My bottom line on it is simple:

 

I'd think Rivera and Del Rio and the whole Carolina crew that are here would know miles more about Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Derek Carr than we would from our couch.  So if they pull the trigger and chase Carr or instead internally believe that Kyle Allen is a top half of the league QB and no need for Carr or anyone else -- I'd support and believe either scenario.  

[HigSkin]

Watson may not be an option to any team this year, including Houston.

[JSSkinz]

2 hours ago, wit33 said:

Why trade for a QB you don’t want to extend lol

I pointed out why in my post, try reading it again. I don't see him as a long term solution but a good placeholder.

 

We don't have that right now so a bridge would be helpful, it gives the team options and keeps the cap manageable.

 

If he wants a 5 yr deal for $100M then I'm not interested.

Edited February 1, 2021 by JSSkinz

[Capt'n Obvious]

Re: Josina Anderson tweet about Watson

 

 

The longer Houston lets this drag out, the less they'll get in return. They would still get a haul, but Watson's peak value is right now/this offseason. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Capt'n Obvious

[bakedtater1]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Bad.  Very bad.

 

No thanks to giving up anything to get him or paying his salary.

Ok..fair enough

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Judging by their coaching staff's recent comments and dead money hit, doesn't look like they'd trade him.  I wouldn't love it on the off chance they did trade for him, if I recall his cap hit if we obtained him this year is about 33 million and ditto next year.  Stafford IMO is the better player and a signficantly lower cap hit. 

Thanks for your input..makes sence

1 hour ago, justice98 said:

 

He's older than Alex Smith was when we got him.  I think we dont run it consistently enough to make an aging QB a good option.  And in a couple years, we'll be right back in the same spot wondering who the QB is gonna be.

Thanks for your input..makes sence as well

57 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

He’s not the optimal answer, but def better than what we have.  Given his current cap constraints who knows how it could play out. Maybe Atlanta either eats some of the $ to send him packing or pays draft Capital to get out of it. You never know until you ask. Blank has stated that no one on the team is untouchable. He’d only be a 1 or 2 year placeholder. 

Thanks for your response as well..very good points folks

20 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Watson may not be an option to any team this year, including Houston.

What a ****ing shame..you have a chance to be employed you take it..not many people get a chance to play in the nfl

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

33 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Judging by what Finlay and Keim said if Watson ends up truly hitting the market, I gather some on the thread might have a lot of angst because it seems like both think they'd be all in. .   Tough to read the tea leaves as to their next move but its not tough when it comes to Watson, it seems clear they'd be all in. 

I'd love to have Watson, obviously.  But seeing what the Rams gave up for Stafford (which I'd have been fine with), just imagine what it will take to get Watson.  I also have to add in that it seems he's pretty particular about what he wants.  We have Scott Turner at OC and no weapons outside of Terry.  We've got Ron and the gang in charge of everything, who simply doesn't seem like a guy that wants his QB as quasi-GM.  I just can't see this being a desired destination for him.

[SemperFi Skins]

Rams had to give more due to the fact that they also were dumping Goff's salary.

[CommDownMan]

So I haven't seen it listed, but at 253 pages who know if I simply didn't see it...

 

Say we strike out on all the trade candidates and don't see the FA options as upgrades.  Heinicke (RFA) and Allen (ERFA) are likely to be back and I'd assume we look at a development pick in the draft.

 

If Alex doesn't want to retire, and it's known he's seen more as a backup (since the team is looking at Stafford and other options), would it be reasonable to ask for a restructure/pay cut (if nothing else it's worth asking).  There is no more guaranteed money in his deal, and he isn't likely to get starting money offers elsewhere.  Fitz was an 8 mill and 10ish is around what I see for the backup roles. 

 

Would 2/20 contract restructure with 10 mill guaranteed this year (and 2 years to keep the 4.3 mill prorated bonus from original contract unchanged) and year 2 remains not guaranteed.  Cap hit would drop to 14.3 vs 23.3, saving 9 million.  Deadhit 2022 would be same 4.3mill if we waited until next year to cut.

 

If we did draft pick and had Heinicke, Allen and Smith keeping 4 on roster doesn't make sense (so maybe make this decision if we don't get a draft pick we like).  Either way, that 9 mill would be a difference to a year one cap hit of a decent size contract.

 

[Anselmheifer]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/01/rams-are-willing-to-build-a-team-without-first-round-draft-picks/
 

Rams are going to go 7 years without a 1st round pick. 
 

how about seven 1sts for Deshaun Watson!? I know Kdawg will approve. 

[heyholetsgogrant]

1 minute ago, Anselmheifer said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/01/rams-are-willing-to-build-a-team-without-first-round-draft-picks/
 

Rams are going to go 7 years without a 1st round pick. 
 

how about seven 1sts for Deshaun Watson!? I know Kdawg will approve. 

and they still win 🙄

[Burgundy Yoda]

Houston really has no choice but to trade if he's going to hold out. It's not like this is a money issue that can be fixed by waving more cash in front of his face, he legitimately wants out of that organization so holding onto him does nothing. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda