Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I don’t buy that they help us as much as building a roster first and then making a big move.

 

Now is not the time in my opinion. And it’s just mine. I understand that. But the team is always greater than one player. 

 

I get the point. 

 

The way i see it is this way.  Lets say the goal is to date a swim suit model.    I get the idea of work out first, get yourself in order and then when you run into the swim suit model they will find you more desirable and you'd be in a better place to make it work.  It seems very logical and prudent.   

 

But the way I see it is the odds that we get in shape and yet still don't run into the swim suit model is very good.  The odds are good that we get ourselves in shape and yet never run into the swim suit model are better than average.  So when you have a rare opportunity to date a swim suit model go do it because the odds are always working against you no matter how much you have your stuff together.

 

And I do believe the position has a major disproportionate affect on the team's success.    I would take an average roster with an elite QB over a mediocre QB with a really good roster anyday of the week. 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[CjSuAvE22]

It would be really nice to luck into a Russel Wilson type qb in the 3rd or 4th

[BraveWarrior]

39 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

History agrees with me. Can you give me a list of completely mediocre QBs who went to a different team and suddenly became good? And not just became good for one season...became consistently a top 10 or top 15 QB. Tannehill is basically it.

 

 

Off the top of my head, I could only think of Jim Plunkett. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

See, these analogies are the opposite for me. This is like having a $40k/year job and having a vehicle that gets the job done but not flashy... but instead of making the smart financial decision and upgrading your car as your salary/job situation improves (or in this case the roster) you go and sell your house for that Ferrari. 
 

 

 

The irony is you keep your house and get the Ferrari.    It's not like they are unloading the roster.   Or trading every draft pick and all their cap room away.   It's not an all or nothing proposition.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, CjSuAvE22 said:

It would be really nice to luck into a Russel Wilson type qb in the 3rd or 4th

 

It would be.  Luck is the operative word sadly though.  People cite Wilson and Cousins, etc.  But they are the unicorns not the norm. The number of busts in the 2nd round down is staggering and much higher than first rounders.  I've posted those stats in this thread before. 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The irony is you keep your house and get the Ferrari.    It's not like they are unloading the roster.   Or trading every draft pick and all their cap room away.   It's not an all or nothing proposition.  

 

 

3+ 1sts is not keeping your house...

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

3+ 1sts is not keeping your house...

 

If you have a franchise QB your needs aren't the same.   You still have other picks and cap room.  It's not like you have no other avenue to build your roster.

 

I think that's our main disagreement.  It's not that PFF is the be all and end all but some of their guys explain it well. They like to say it's not easy to build and maintain a killer roster.  But if you have a killer good QB you don't always need to be that stacked because a top 5 type QB can make up for shortcomings.  And I don't mean that in an extreme way but just like I put it, an average roster.  I agree a franchise QB can't offset a garbage roster.  But I believe a top 5 QB can elevate a roster. 

 

I'd agree with you about Watson if I believed that we have a garbage roster.  But I don't believe we do have a crap roster.  I think its at least average and arguably above average on defense.  

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

13 minutes ago, BraveWarrior said:

Off the top of my head, I could only think of Jim Plunkett. 

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by mistertim

[kingdaddy]

29 minutes ago, BraveWarrior said:

Off the top of my head, I could only think of Jim Plunkett. 

Rich Gannon was mediocre his entire career and flourished with the Raiders....was actually a Redskin before that. 

 

 

[Est.1974]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The irony is you keep your house and get the Ferrari.    It's not like they are unloading the roster.   Or trading every draft pick and all their cap room away.   It's not an all or nothing proposition.  

 

Yeah I would read it more that way too.

 

Or, you just decide to keep that steady old car and don’t lavish expense elsewhere. Cut your cloth accordingly and all that. Instead you plough a significant portion of your available capital into buying the beautiful new big house, the one that you make sacrifices elsewhere for initially to set yourself, and those around you, up for life.

 

People question that but within two years you are the envy of everyone for having the foresight to make that brave, calculated, move.

[FootballZombie]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Lets say the goal is to date a swim suit model.    I get the idea of work out first, get yourself in order and then when you run into the swim suit model they will find you more desirable and you'd be in a better place to make it work.  It seems very logical and prudent. 

 

I think that is a great analogy, an I'd see the Watson scenario as thus:

 

What if that swimsuit model happens to bump into you before your quite ready? You've been working out a while, making good progress but out of the blue, here comes an 11/10

 

Do you slink away and not try your luck, or do you go for it. I'd say go for it.

 

The better the team gets, the worse your draft pick gets, so unless your hope is a back of the 1st round QB pans out, your trading multiple 1st rounders to move up anyway. And what are the chances that guy, who is an unproven commodity, is even half of what Watson is.

 

Young franchise signal callers don't hit FA. You have to either trade for one or draft one. The longer you wait, and the better you build your roster, the more your giving up to go get your guy anyway in the draft scenario when the time comes to move up.

 

People dream their young QB can whiff what D Watt is. If you can get him outright, screw the timetable, do what you gotta do to make it happen. Like you said, that next swimsuit model may never come, or they may be an 8 or 9/10. You can either bank on the stars aligning, or you can fly up there and move them around yourself.

[Koolblue13]

The Titans model seems fairly decent, right? Build a team around a workhorse run game and solid platform then sign a reclamation project at QB and not expect him to carry you.

 

Our defense is 2 LBers and a FS away from special. Oline depth and an upgrade to Barber. Another WR or 2 and a better TE. Our ST is already excellent, minus Sims.

 

If Alex Smith can come in and put up a terrible statistical year and go 6-2, the base is already close to built. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I think that is a great analogy, an I'd see the Watson scenario as thus:

 

What if that swimsuit model happens to bump into you before your quite ready? You've been working out a while, making good progress but out of the blue, here comes an 11/10

 

Do you slink away and not try your luck, or do you go for it. I'd say go for it.

 

The better the team gets, the worse your draft pick gets, so unless your hope is a back of the 1st round QB pans out, your trading multiple 1st rounders to move up anyway. And what are the chances that guy, who is an unproven commodity, is even half of what Watson is.

 

Young franchise signal callers don't hit FA. You have to either trade for one or draft one. The longer you wait, and the better you build your roster, the more your giving up to go get your guy anyway in the draft scenario when the time comes to move up.

 

People dream their young QB can whiff what D Watt is. If you can get him outright, screw the timetable, do what you gotta do to make it happen. Like you said, that next swimsuit model may never come, or they may be an 8 or 9/10. You can either bank on the stars aligning, or you can fly up there and move them around yourself.

 

Yep, if you are giving three #1s they are likely somewhere in the 25 range if you got Watson. Heck we are picking 19 right now without Watson.  If you get someone like Watson and sign a receiver like Robinson and a MLB....and heck you can easily do both, we'd actually have an above roster with an elite QB.  This isn't like Watson taking the helm of the Jets.

 

But lets go crazy and say the three #1's we'd give up would result In Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Ryan Kerrigan.  All guys picked between 10-20.   Three of our best #1's ever.  Yet, we stunk with them mostly.   Why?  Mainly because of yawn QB play.  I'd trade all three for Watson in two seconds without even blinking. And that's taking worse case sceanaro.  The odds that teams are drafting even one player of that caliber with our #1 pick in the 20s is very unlikely.  

 

I'd add the odds that we are finding a top 5 QB if we stay patient in the draft at least going be past history is close to 0%.      This isn't the Field of Dreams, where you build it and they will come.  Now we are ready for a top 5 QB, so they will likely manifest.  That would be super cool but it rarely happens. 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

10 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

There's absolutely no reason to believe that Heinicke/Allen/Mariota are going to suddenly become top 16 QBs after years of being mediocre. You're basically just going on a hope and a prayer. The fact that Tannehill managed to suddenly become really good after being mediocre doesn't mean that all of the dozens of other mediocre QBs around the NFL are going to do the same thing.

 

So yes. It's a longshot. 

 

And I wouldn't trade for a 40 year old QB. Brady is a complete one-off anomaly. Best case we get 2 decent years out of Rodgers would be my assumption. And you'd probably need to give up 2 1sts to get him from GB, especially if he's still playing really well. There will be a big market for him. And he'll almost surely also demand a new contract from his new team. 

Tannehill changed teams and has been very good after being below average in Miami. You just never know. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

The Titans model seems fairly decent, right? Build a team around a workhorse run game and solid platform then sign a reclamation project at QB and not expect him to carry you.

 

Our defense is 2 LBers and a FS away from special. Oline depth and an upgrade to Barber. Another WR or 2 and a better TE. Our ST is already excellent, minus Sims.

 

If Alex Smith can come in and put up a terrible statistical year and go 6-2, the base is already close to built. 

 

To me though that's going for Acura TLX model versus Ferrari.  It's a better model than we got.  We are unlikely to be winning the Indy 500 with it but hey at least we finished 4th and are relevant.  It's IMO the best model for a team that struggles to find that guy.  But that to me is Plan B not Plan A.

 

I think there is a better chance that I am the QB next season than Deshaun Watson.   So for me I am just arguing the theory of landing a killer Qb.  It changes a franchise.  And IMO you don't need a loaded roster to have that type of QB thrive.  See Seattle.  Their rosters have had their ups and downs, sometimes average, never horrible, rarely great. But they are always in the post season.  Can we picture Aaron Rodgers out of the post season?  Texans crashed this year with a HC who ruined their roster but even with that clown in charge the previous two seasons were good. 

 

Having said that, I do think we have no choice but adapt Plan B this off season.  That's not because Plan B is better.  Plan A beats it by a good margin IMO.  But alas, only a select lucky teams get to adapt Plan A.    So i think we are stuck with a Fitzpatrick type.  And if so building a team that can run the ball like the Titans, I agree is the ticket.  We likely will win a playoff game finally but get knocked out after that.  Still that would be progress. 😀

 

 

[Riggo#44]

Brees was a free agent, Tannehill was a cheap trade, Wilson, Dak, Carr, and Brady were outside the 1st round. The vast majority of the rest were drafted in the 1st round.

 

There is next to no chance we get Watson. Miami has way more capital, and in much better position to get him.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

To me though that's going for Acura TLX model versus Ferrari.  It's a better model than we got.  We are unlikely to be winning the Indy 500 with it but hey at least we finished 4th and are relevant.  It's IMO the best model for a team that struggles to find that guy.  But that to me is Plan B not Plan A.

 

I think there is a better chance that I am the QB next season than Deshaun Watson.   So for me I am just arguing the theory of landing a killer Qb.  It changes a franchise.  And IMO you don't need a loaded roster to have that type of QB thrive.  See Seattle.  Their rosters have had their ups and downs, sometimes average, never horrible, rarely great. But they are always in the post season.  Can we picture Aaron Rodgers out of the post season?  Texans crashed this year with a HC who ruined their roster but even with that clown in charge the previous two seasons were good. 

 

Having said that, I do think we have no choice but adapt Plan B this off season.  That's not because Plan B is better.  Plan A beats it by a good margin IMO.  But alas, only a select lucky teams get to adapt Plan A.    So i think we are stuck with a Fitzpatrick type.  And if so building a team that can run the ball like the Titans, I agree is the ticket.  We likely will win a playoff game finally but get knocked out after that.  Still that would be progress. 😀

 

 

I don't think anyone would argue against having a great QB or the importance.

 

Although I'd have to say that your bias is showing using the Titans as an example of mediocre, while using the Seahawks as the model of consistency. Titans were arguably the better team the last two years, despite both being knocked out in the same round this year. I'd bet better money the Titans are there again next year, in a better division, then the Seahawks too.

 

Rodgers carries his team to the playoffs every year, yes. But his team doesn't always win it. This year he has a pretty complete team around him finally. 

 

The Bucs didn't beat us because they had Brady. Their defense was better than ours. They stopped our run and they ran the ball. Our QB play was great.

[Skinsinparadise]

We could get lucky and lets say Tyrod Taylor turns into Tannehill but the reason why Tannehill is such a story isn't because hey what reclamation project doesn't turn out a beauty like that?  It's because the story is somewhat wild because most of them fail, the past is prologue, on occasion you get a surprise.  Even the Titans were surprised.  Also its been overplayed as to Tannehill's struggles in Miami.  He wasn't that bad there.  He actually had some good statisitical seasons there.  He was far from a disaster. 

 

But yeah on any position including QB we can bank an outliers.    But the stats don't favor you.  And its not like we haven't tried other QBs here with narratives.  What if Case Keenum rediscovers the magic of his one good season.  Hey wasn't Colt McCoy the guy early on with the Browns, maybe he will be that guy for us?  Wasn't Rex in a SB?  John Beck was a high 2nd rounder, Kyle Shanny pounded the table to draft him when he was with the Texans.  Maybe Mark Brunell has something left -- he was great during the early years in Jax.  On and On.

 

Not saying the 20th time or whatever won't be the charm.  But the odds aren't stacked in your favor that the next FA signing is Tannehill.   If I had to pick a Qb like that, it would ironically be the dude the Titans discarded for Tannehill, Mariotta.  Would I bank on him developing into a really good QB?  Nope.  But he'd be the one i'd roll the dice on as for finding a dude with the most similar profile to Tannehill -- like Ryan he's a high draft pick with upside. 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We could get lucky and lets say Tyrod Taylor turns into Tannehill but the reason why Tannehill is such a story isn't because hey what reclamation project doesn't turn out a beauty like that?  It's because the story is somewhat wild because most of them fail, the past is prologue, on occasion you get a surprise.  Even the Titans were surprised.  Also its been overplayed as to Tannehill's struggles in Miami.  He wasn't that bad there.  He actually had some good statisitical seasons there.  He was far from a disaster. 

 

But yeah on any position including QB we can bank an outliers.    But the stats don't favor you.  And its not like we haven't tried other QBs here with narratives.  What if Case Keenum rediscovers the magic of his one good season.  Hey wasn't Colt McCoy the guy early on with the Browns, maybe he will be that guy for us?  Wasn't Rex in a SB?  John Beck was a high 2nd rounder, Kyle Shanny pounded the table to draft him when he was with the Texans.  Maybe Mark Brunell has something left -- he was great during the early years in Jax.  On and On.

 

Not saying the 20th time or whatever won't be the charm.  But the odds aren't stacked in your favor that the next FA signing is Tannehill.   If I had to pick a Qb like that, it would ironically be the dude the Titans discarded for Tannehill, Mariotta.  Would I bank on him developing into a really good QB?  Nope.  But he'd be the one i'd roll the dice on as for finding a dude with the most similar profile to Tannehill -- like Ryan he's a high draft pick with upside. 

 

 

So you're saying we should give Heinicke $118 million dollars?

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I don't think anyone would argue against having a great QB or the importance.

 

 

I think the argument is the "degree" of importance.  

 

26 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

Although I'd have to say that your bias is showing using the Titans as an example of mediocre,

 

Bias?  First of all I flat out say I prefer model A to model B.  So I am not pretending that I like both models equally.  I am outright biased that having a top 5 QB beats the Titans model.  And the Titans model isn't really a mile off anyway to model A.  Their QB is actually pretty good and playing better than any QB we've had since RG3 in 2012.   He's not top 5 but is playing like a top 10 QB.   If Kyle Allen was the Titans QB they wouldn't be as good.  Tannehill IMO is easily better than any QB on our roster.  

 

And where did I say the Titans are mediocre?  I flat out said making the playoffs and winning a playoff game. That would be like a SB for our team let alone mediocre.

 

The Seahawks have had winning records 9 seasons in a row.  playoffs 8 of those 9 seasons.  Won a SB.  Been in two SBs.  The Titans have had a nice recent run. But it doesn't compare to Seattle.  They play in arguably one of the weaker divisions in the league.  They haven't even hit double digit wins since 2008 until this season.   It's a nice story but they haven't been some juggernaut.  I have touted their model including to you on the draft thread but again not because I think its the ideal one but a good plan B if you can't do plan A.  I think they've done a masterful job on plan B. 

26 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

 

The Bucs didn't beat us because they had Brady. Their defense was better than ours. They stopped our run and they ran the ball. Our QB play was great.

 

Brady was the main plot line.  He put up almost 400 yards on the defense.  It's not because IMO our defense stinks.  Brady is really really good.  They had Joey Bosa miked up when he played Brady in a previous post season game and you can hear him whining about how he can't get to him because he gets rid of the ball so fast.     Tampa's defense was pretty bad against our passing game.  They have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. And an undrafted QB off the street lit them up. But their run defense is the best.  And that's how it played out. 

 

Bucs had most of that same roster last season but had a losing record.  They have been bad for years.  They haven't made the playoffs in 13 years.  What happened?  What changed this season ?   😀  

Edited January 17, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[skinzplay]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Not saying the 20th time or whatever won't be the charm.  But the odds aren't stacked in your favor that the next FA signing is Tannehill.   If I had to pick a Qb like that, it would ironically be the dude the Titans discarded for Tannehill, Mariotta.  Would I bank on him developing into a really good QB?  Nope.  But he'd be the one i'd roll the dice on as for finding a dude with the most similar profile to Tannehill -- like Ryan he's a high draft pick with upside. 

 

Mariota might be the only FA I'd be interesting in bringing in to compete for the starting job. He's affordable, he has talent that his previous coaches have squandered, and I think Zampese could really bring out the best in him. We're on to something good here that shouldn't be derailed by sending out the Brink's truck for someone who might not even fit was RR and his coaches want to do (or fit with the culture they've begun to successfully build).

[sjinhan]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

The Titans model seems fairly decent, right? Build a team around a workhorse run game and solid platform then sign a reclamation project at QB and not expect him to carry you.

 

Our defense is 2 LBers and a FS away from special. Oline depth and an upgrade to Barber. Another WR or 2 and a better TE. Our ST is already excellent, minus Sims.

 

If Alex Smith can come in and put up a terrible statistical year and go 6-2, the base is already close to built. 

i think you need to have one of the top QBs at least top 10 capable QB to win the Super Bowl.

 

Titan model works if you want a good competitive team but at any time over past 3-4 years, did they actually have a legit shot to win a Super Bowl?  In my opinion, NO.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, skinzplay said:

 

Mariota might be the only FA I'd be interesting in bringing in to compete for the starting job. He's affordable, he has talent that his previous coaches have squandered, and I think Zampese could really bring out the best in him. We're on to something good here that shouldn't be derailed by sending out the Brink's truck for someone who might not even fit was RR and his coaches want to do (or fit with the culture they've begun to successfully build).

 

Sadly he's not a FA, you got to trade for him.  I'd consider it if its not a heavy price.   Not sure about what you are driving at as for the Brinks truck for a QB who would hurt the culture, etc.  For starters, I'd trust Rivera wouldn't bring any QB that would hurt the culture.  And I can't think of a Brinks Truck type FA on the market aside from Dak and i don't think Dak ends up hitting the market. 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think the argument is the "degree" of importance.  

 

 

Bias?  First of all I flat out say I prefer model A to model B.  So I am not pretending that I like both models equally.  I am outright biased that having a top 5 QB beats the Titans model.  And the Titans model isn't really a mile off anyway to model A.  Their QB is actually pretty good and playing better than any QB we've had since RG3 in 2012.   He's not top 5 but is playing like a top 10 QB.   If Kyle Allen was the Titans QB they wouldn't be as good.  Tannehill IMO is easily better than any QB on our roster.  

 

And where did I say the Titans are mediocre?  I flat out said making the playoffs and winning a playoff game. That would be like a SB for our team let alone mediocre.

 

The Seahawks have had winning records 9 seasons in a row.  playoffs 8 of those 9 seasons.  Won a SB.  Been in two SBs.  The Titans have had a nice recent run. But it doesn't compare to Seattle.  They play in arguably one of the weaker divisions in the league.  They haven't hit double digits wins since 2008 until this season.   It's a nice story but they haven't been some juggernaut.  I have touted their model including to you on the draft thread but again not because I think its the ideal one but a good plan B if you can't do plan A.  I think they've done a masterful job on plan B. 

 

Brady was the main plot line.  He put up almost 400 yards on the defense.  It's not because IMO our defense stinks.  Brady is really really good.  They had Joey Bosa miked up when he played Brady in a previous post season game and you can hear him whining about how he can't get to him because he gets rid of the ball so fast.     Tampa's defense was pretty bad against our passing game.  They have one of the worst passing defenses in the league. And an undrafted QB off the street lit them up. But their run defense is one of the best.  And that's how it played out. 

 

Bucs had most of that same roster last season but had a losing record.  They have been bad for years.  They haven't made the playoffs in 13 years.  What happened?  What changed this season ?   😀  

Yes, bringing in the greatest QB and his top weapon absolutely had a profound impact on the Bucs. As did AB and addressing their Oline. Of course.

 

My point was that they sold out to stop Heinicke and couldn't, we held Brady to 22 of 40, which is great. LBers were the difference in that game or Heinicke could have absolutely been the winning QB that game. 

[sjinhan]

IMHO, we should go veteran route if we can secure a top 10 capable QB.  
 

From what I am reading, I think getting Stafford would be ideal case based on his talent and age vs what we potentially  have to give up for him.

[skinzplay]

Oh yeah, I'm with you on this SIP. I was referring more to the talking heads (PFT and others), or those who clamor for the latest shiny object. I trust RR too. The way he and the coaches have gone about the off-season, and the way he's guided this team in this short period speaks volumes.

 

EDIT -- My bad on the FA status for Mariota. Thought the Raiders had picked him up on a 1-year deal.

Edited January 17, 2021 by skinzplay