2021 Draft Order / Tracker: Current Pick #19

[Riggo#44]

I think in that scenario, we're tripping over ourselves to trade up ahead of Carolina.

[Number 44]

1 hour ago, Riggo#44 said:

I think in that scenario, we're tripping over ourselves to trade up ahead of Carolina.

Yeah, I don't see any way, barring injury, that Fields goes 6th.  If he isn't taken top 2, I think it is a virtual certainty that either DAL or LAC trades down, assuming DAL keeps Dak.  If they decide to move on from Dak, they would take about 2 seconds to grab Fields in this scenario, IMO.

[IrepDC]

1 hour ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

You can only play the teams that are on your schedule. He has 34 TDs to 2 ints. You really can't do much better than that regardless of the competition. 

 

Now, there are actually plenty of instances where he is throwing into tight windows and has perfect ball placement. Even if the WR is wide open, is he hitting him in perfect stride on the deep ball? These are essentially things I looked at when I was evaluating Haskins and where I noticed his flaws. He had clean pockets, played inferior competition and his WRs were constantly open. I noticed he had accuracy issues and couldn't hit them in stride to save his life (he did a few times but it did not happen as often as you like). Wilson is accurate as hell, especially on the run. 

 

He is also embarrassing his competition, he's not "supposed" to do that, he's just far superior. Its also not like he's playing for Ohio State against all these teams, he plays for BYU lol. I look at the teams hes played and compare it to OSU playing Syracuse or something.  Level of competition-wise, Houston and Boise State are typically on par with BYU (maybe even better most years)

When you are throwing from a clean pocket like this to open WRs you are absolutely supposed to embarrass the competition. All im saying is that he is going to face some level of shock when he faces real pressure, has to take some hits, and faces defenses scheming to confuse him. I rewatch his highlights and it is very hard to gage how much is talent, and how much is poor competition. We have not seen him in anywhere close to adversity. How does he react to getting hit in the mouth? How does he handle an OL that is struggling? I've seen college QBs like him fold when the heat is on and that is my worry. The WFT QB is not for the faint hearted and I'm just searching for something to tell me he has the guts to take the heat. I haven't see it yet. 

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

I have to admit, I'm gonna be really nervous if we end up taking Lance.... 

 

Yeah, no doubt it would be a very high risk based selection.

 

That said, I think we can safely say Smith and Allen return in 2021. Haskins is a question mark to return. But we do have a window of 12-24 months to further develop Lance.

 

To a slightly lesser extent, I think the same would apply to Fields and Wilson.

 

I’m all in for taking one of these top 4 QB’s and taking my chances. 
 

In the current climate of QBs demanding 30mil plus per year, I’m not adverse to also adding a QB the following year in the mid rounds if required.

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

 

Yeah, no doubt it would be a very high risk based selection.

 

That said, I think we can safely say Smith and Allen return in 2021. Haskins is a question mark to return. But we do have a window of 12-24 months to further develop Lance.

 

To a slightly lesser extent, I think the same would apply to Fields and Wilson.

 

I’m all in for taking one of these top 4 QB’s and taking my chances. 
 

In the current climate of QBs demanding 30mil plus per year, I’m not adverse to also adding a QB the following year in the mid rounds if required.

 

 

I get it, and Lance is the ultimate x factor QB of this draft.  The ultimate boom or bust, it's just a very volatile avenue to go down with the current team we have.  After picking Haskins 15 overall, having the D-line we currently have and the fact that we're as close to an elite level of play on one side of the ball, I can't help but find myself wondering just what this team could be if the no. 8 overall ( i actually think we win the division so this whole convo may be moot) were used on a more stable long term commitment... Lance COULD be the guy, but I haven't seen a game that can truly translate to the NFL anymore than we saw with Haskins.  Lance is quick to run (probably by design) which scares me that it will become a crutch.  Watching the game vs Central Ark, he was overthrowing balls, struggled with accuracy, and threw one of the worst interceptions i've ever seen.  

 

I get that it's his only game this season so there are a lot of factors involved in that... and it's a limited sample size, but it wasn't exactly pristine.  Ultimately if Smith / Rivera / Zampese believe in him, I'm there and I'll do my best to remain patient... 24 month is a long time too, and i would be lying if i said I wouldn't be wondering what if for the next 2 drafts if that's how long we invest in Lance's development but ultimately pull the plug.  

 

I would take a QB in the 2nd half of just about every draft for the foreseeable future.... I don't know for the life of me why more teams don't do it.  Taking a flyer on a QB can yield positive results in so many ways.  At best you find Tom Brady.  At worst you groom a PS quarterback for 2 or 3 years.  They can turn into Logan Thomas, or if you have your long term guy and someone offers you a 3rd rounder for a guy you spent a 6th on, you come out ahead.  Look how many QBs the Pats took while they had a QB in place. 

 

Tom Brady

Rohan Davey

Kliff Klingsbury

Matt Cassel

Kevin O'Connell

Zac Robinson

Ryan Mallett

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jacoby Brissett

Danny Etling

Jarrett Stidham

 

Now none of those guys after Brady was picked (they had Bledsoe entrenched as the starter when they took him) turned into HOF players, but how many position players were taken in that same amount of time turned into nothings?  Looking the NFL and how important the position is, even if you have your starter, having a viable backup is that much more important now than ever... if you get lucky, you get lucky.  If you can trade your backup QB for a 3rd round pick, you continue to accrue capital. 

[KDawg]

Teams don’t do it because those guys rarely walk in the door and get a chance to get practice reps. 
 

They aren’t the projected starter or back up. 
 

Thus the failure with the NFL system.

[OVCChairman]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Teams don’t do it because those guys rarely walk in the door and get a chance to get practice reps. 
 

They aren’t the projected starter or back up. 
 

Thus the failure with the NFL system.

 

 

I get that.. but the same can be said for most 88th, 89th, and 90th players on a training camp roster.   The 9th CB, the 8th DE or OLB, rarely do they find themselves with any real exposure.. .why not look at QBs the same way? 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I get that.. but the same can be said for most 88th, 89th, and 90th players on a training camp roster.   The 9th CB, the 8th DE or OLB, rarely do they find themselves with any real exposure.. .why not look at QBs the same way? 

Because it’s much harder to invest the resources in the QB.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Teams don’t do it because those guys rarely walk in the door and get a chance to get practice reps. 
 

They aren’t the projected starter or back up. 
 

Thus the failure with the NFL system.

True.

 

I was more looking near term, Lance, I would take a risk on if Rivera wants to take that chance. Year after mid rounder. By then, I would expect Smith to be off the books or heading off the books, and Allen would have passed his restricted free agency period....and we’d have some kind of answer on Haskins.

 

For me Wilson presents a similar risk.

 

On balance, I’ll risk a QB over another position on the basis we still have several valuable picks to follow.

 

 

[El Mexican]

Maybe we could go de Shanny route?

 

Draft a premium QB in the first round. Then draft a backup at 3rd or 4th.

You can never have too much insurance at QB.

 

Arguably, Cousins has had a better career than RGIII. 

[RichmondRedskin88]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Brugler with his first mock 

 

 

If Wilson goes early and Fields falls all the way to us only for Carolina to take him under our noses I’m proposing NC gets excommunicated. 

Side note is M Jones coming out?  I’m not normally impressed by Bama QBs but his awareness in the Pocket and touch is quite impressive.  I think Alex could be a excellent mentor. 

[Number 44]

1 hour ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:

If Wilson goes early and Fields falls all the way to us only for Carolina to take him under our noses I’m proposing NC gets excommunicated. 

Side note is M Jones coming out?  I’m not normally impressed by Bama QBs but his awareness in the Pocket and touch is quite impressive.  I think Alex could be a excellent mentor. 

Agree on Jones.  One would think that it would be difficult to be underrated as the QB for the top ranked team, but that's the case, IMO.  Very impressive.  He destroyed Auburn on Saturday.  He is doing this against good teams with players that will be playing on Sundays in future years.

 

Here is QB School look at the Georgia game:

 

[method man]

4 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I get it, and Lance is the ultimate x factor QB of this draft.  The ultimate boom or bust, it's just a very volatile avenue to go down with the current team we have.  After picking Haskins 15 overall, having the D-line we currently have and the fact that we're as close to an elite level of play on one side of the ball, I can't help but find myself wondering just what this team could be if the no. 8 overall ( i actually think we win the division so this whole convo may be moot) were used on a more stable long term commitment... Lance COULD be the guy, but I haven't seen a game that can truly translate to the NFL anymore than we saw with Haskins.  Lance is quick to run (probably by design) which scares me that it will become a crutch.  Watching the game vs Central Ark, he was overthrowing balls, struggled with accuracy, and threw one of the worst interceptions i've ever seen.  

 

I get that it's his only game this season so there are a lot of factors involved in that... and it's a limited sample size, but it wasn't exactly pristine.  Ultimately if Smith / Rivera / Zampese believe in him, I'm there and I'll do my best to remain patient... 24 month is a long time too, and i would be lying if i said I wouldn't be wondering what if for the next 2 drafts if that's how long we invest in Lance's development but ultimately pull the plug.  

 

I would take a QB in the 2nd half of just about every draft for the foreseeable future.... I don't know for the life of me why more teams don't do it.  Taking a flyer on a QB can yield positive results in so many ways.  At best you find Tom Brady.  At worst you groom a PS quarterback for 2 or 3 years.  They can turn into Logan Thomas, or if you have your long term guy and someone offers you a 3rd rounder for a guy you spent a 6th on, you come out ahead.  Look how many QBs the Pats took while they had a QB in place. 

 

Tom Brady

Rohan Davey

Kliff Klingsbury

Matt Cassel

Kevin O'Connell

Zac Robinson

Ryan Mallett

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jacoby Brissett

Danny Etling

Jarrett Stidham

 

Now none of those guys after Brady was picked (they had Bledsoe entrenched as the starter when they took him) turned into HOF players, but how many position players were taken in that same amount of time turned into nothings?  Looking the NFL and how important the position is, even if you have your starter, having a viable backup is that much more important now than ever... if you get lucky, you get lucky.  If you can trade your backup QB for a 3rd round pick, you continue to accrue capital. 

 

Teams don't do it anymore but there was a point when the league was so QB starved that teams would trade a 1st or 2nd for a mid to late round backup who shined over a couple games. Andy Reid did this well in Philly, trading AJ Feeley and Kevin Kolb for 2nd round picks

[Burgundy Yoda]

7 hours ago, IrepDC said:

When you are throwing from a clean pocket like this to open WRs you are absolutely supposed to embarrass the competition. All im saying is that he is going to face some level of shock when he faces real pressure, has to take some hits, and faces defenses scheming to confuse him. I rewatch his highlights and it is very hard to gage how much is talent, and how much is poor competition. We have not seen him in anywhere close to adversity. How does he react to getting hit in the mouth? How does he handle an OL that is struggling? I've seen college QBs like him fold when the heat is on and that is my worry. The WFT QB is not for the faint hearted and I'm just searching for something to tell me he has the guts to take the heat. I haven't see it yet. 

And in reality we will never know until he is drafted. The draft is a total crapshoot in the end, all you can do is compile the data you have and hope he's the right choice. He's doing what he's supposed to do at this level of competition, I dont think you can negatively grade him if hes destroying inferior competition. If he was struggling? Sure, that actually deserves two red flags instead of one. 

 

It's a crapshoot man, traits are what we need to be paying attention to with someone who doesn't play tough competition. Traits trump stats in Wilson's case. This is how WFT found a gem in Antonio Gibson, look at the competition he had and how few carries he had at Memphis. 

 

Bit off our topic but there's a connection between great QBs and an offensive line that is tough for me to figure out. Its extremely rare for great QBs to have terrible offensive lines, does a great QB naturally make a line better with quicker reads, throws, and pocket awareness? Or do teams that draft great QBs invest resources in the offensive line and thats why it seems like their protection is always good. Or it both? I'm not 1) smart enough on this topic to know and 2) have the technology to figure it out lol.

[IrepDC]

15 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

And in reality we will never know until he is drafted. The draft is a total crapshoot in the end, all you can do is compile the data you have and hope he's the right choice. He's doing what he's supposed to do at this level of competition, I dont think you can negatively grade him if hes destroying inferior competition. If he was struggling? Sure, that actually deserves two red flags instead of one. 

 

It's a crapshoot man, traits are what we need to be paying attention to with someone who doesn't play tough competition. Traits trump stats in Wilson's case. This is how WFT found a gem in Antonio Gibson, look at the competition he had and how few carries he had at Memphis. 

 

Bit off our topic but there's a connection between great QBs and an offensive line that is tough for me to figure out. Its extremely rare for great QBs to have terrible offensive lines, does a great QB naturally make a line better with quicker reads, throws, and pocket awareness? Or do teams that draft great QBs invest resources in the offensive line and thats why it seems like their protection is always good. Or it both? I'm not 1) smart enough on this topic to know and 2) have the technology to figure it out lol.

Yeah I definitely don't negatively grade Wilson for what he is doing. I am actually zeroing in on him because I like his potential. I'm just trying to set expectations for the young man early IF he comes here, that there will be a learning curve with the huge jump in competition and adversity he will face.

 

As far as OL and QB, they do go hand and hand. We see how Alex Smith getting the ball out fast has made our OL look better. I think with Wilson, he is maximizing the talent on his OL, because they usually give him a clean pocket. It doesn't seem he has to make a lot of quick throws, move up into the pocket, or reset his feet(other than designed rollouts) often. That doesn't mean you don't credit him for doing what he's supposed to do though.

 

I made the mistake of thinking he is a senior so we won't get to see him in the senior bowl. The best gage we will get will likely be the bowl game BYU plays in. Hopefully they get a tough matchup so we get to see how he responds.

[Darth Tater]

7 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I get that.. but the same can be said for most 88th, 89th, and 90th players on a training camp roster.   The 9th CB, the 8th DE or OLB, rarely do they find themselves with any real exposure.. .why not look at QBs the same way? 

True, but the last DE or OLB on your final 53 can get eased in.  Curl was in on a significant percentage of defensive snaps in all but one of our games that he did not start.James Smith-Wilson has gotten a few defensive snaps.   If nothing else, those guys are often contributors as JAGS on teams. Young JAG QBs dont usually give you that.

[cakmoney61]

Picking presumably the fourth best QB at pick #8 wouldn't sit well with me, especially with elite talent at other positions of need still being available.  In fact, as I scrolled down and saw the pick of Trey Lance, I felt great disappointment and wondered if Brugler was a WFT hater.  I really don't believe the Team would take Lance at #8.

[RichmondRedskin88]

Lawrence, Fields, and Wilson I’d take for sure.  After that I’m skeptical.  I’d probably see if I can land Mac Jones in the second round at that point. Right now we’re looking rough at QB next year again. 

[OVCChairman]

30 minutes ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:

Lawrence, Fields, and Wilson I’d take for sure.  After that I’m skeptical.  I’d probably see if I can land Mac Jones in the second round at that point. Right now we’re looking rough at QB next year again. 

 

 

which i'm ok with, because it means we didnt panic and take a QB for the sake of taking a QB.  I actually am very intrigued with what we can do with another dynamic type player in the first (if of course the right guy isn't available), and see how much we can add to the team immediately.  We are in the catbird seat for the division now so I would actually bet we're picking no better than 19th... 

[CobraCommander]

I dunno. I don't have a problem with taking Lance at 8 but I'm not that smart. It's my belief at this point that we need to take at least 1 QB a draft until we find the one. Because until we do, we're just treading water. Even with elite left tackles and a few top 10 defenses we've never been dominant. 10-6 being our best record in the last 20 years.

 

2000, 7th ranked defense, 8-8 

2004, 5th ranked defense, 6-10

2005, 9th ranked defense, 10-6

2008, 6th ranked defense, 8-8

 

Exit Chris Samuels, enter Trent Williams and since then never a top ranked defense, until this year.

 

The only other year we won 10 games was 2012 thanks to an electrifying Subway Bob and his Butler.

 

This year, to date we are ranked 7th according to PFF.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm

 

We have found 3rd round gems for our offense the last two drafts in a row. We need to capitalize on these young men and get a QB to complement them and quite frankly, the defense.

[OVCChairman]

2 minutes ago, Florgon79 said:

I dunno. I don't have a problem with taking Lance at 8 but I'm not that smart. It's my belief at this point that we need to take at least 1 QB a draft until we find the one. Because until we do, we're just treading water. Even with elite left tackles and a few top 10 defenses we've never been dominant. 10-6 being our best record in the last 20 years.

 

2000, 7th ranked defense, 8-8 

2004, 5th ranked defense, 6-10

2005, 9th ranked defense, 10-6

2008, 6th ranked defense, 8-8

 

Exit Chris Samuels, enter Trent Williams and since then never a top ranked defense, until this year.

 

The only other year we won 10 games was 2012 thanks to an electrifying Subway Bob and his Butler.

 

This year, to date we are ranked 7th according to PFF.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm

 

We have found 3rd round gems for our offense the last two drafts in a row. We need to capitalize on these young men and get a QB to complement them and quite frankly, the defense.

 

So looking at your stats right there... you would rather take Lance at 8 instead of Parsons?  Parsons likely takes this defense from good to borderline elite depending on what we do at FS.... 

[CobraCommander]

1 minute ago, OVCChairman said:

 

So looking at your stats right there... you would rather take Lance at 8 instead of Parsons?  Parsons likely takes this defense from good to borderline elite depending on what we do at FS.... 

Not necessarily. I just want this team to draft at least one QB a year until we get the one. If there's can't miss blue chip where we draft then sure. This all seems a bit silly until we officially know where we draft.

[OVCChairman]

6 minutes ago, Florgon79 said:

Not necessarily. I just want this team to draft at least one QB a year until we get the one. If there's can't miss blue chip where we draft then sure. This all seems a bit silly until we officially know where we draft.

 

 

very true, but still fun to talk about lol.  I agree that I want us to draft at least one a year til we get the guy, i just don't think it HAS to be in the first unless 'THE GUY' is there...  I don't want to take Lance at 8, it would scare the bejesus out of me.  I'll eat the heck out of some crow if he blows up... it just scares me.  Big swings and misses can set you back years, or they can take you up multiple levels very quickly.... while building the team can sustain success long term... 

[kingdaddy]

The more I think about this, based on what I'm seeing, I think RR signs a vet free agent or trades for a vet and takes best available in the draft regardless of where we pick unless we somehow have a shot at Lawrence the QB. I also believe we could stay status quo at QB with Alex/Kyle/Dwayne/Montez and possibly draft our future QB in round 2 or 3. If we add some nice pieces in free agency (WR,LB,S) we could draft best available and keep stacking the defense. Just think how good this team can be if we add a stud playmaking LB and a stud WR? I'm not saying I'm in love with our QB situation but I believe we can win with them and be a good team.

4 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

very true, but still fun to talk about lol.  I agree that I want us to draft at least one a year til we get the guy, i just don't think it HAS to be in the first unless 'THE GUY' is there...  I don't want to take Lance at 8, it would scare the bejesus out of me.  I'll eat the heck out of some crow if he blows up... it just scares me.  Big swings and misses can set you back years, or they can take you up multiple levels very quickly.... while building the team can sustain success long term... 

YES....THIS!!!

[CobraCommander]

9 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

very true, but still fun to talk about lol.  I agree that I want us to draft at least one a year til we get the guy, i just don't think it HAS to be in the first unless 'THE GUY' is there...  I don't want to take Lance at 8, it would scare the bejesus out of me.  I'll eat the heck out of some crow if he blows up... it just scares me.  Big swings and misses can set you back years, or they can take you up multiple levels very quickly.... while building the team can sustain success long term... 

I'd be more worried if we trade up and spend a bunch to get that guy. But I understand, you don't want to miss with your 1st round pick. I just think anyone has a chance to bust or not play to their potential, not just QBs. I know it was the 22nd pick but that Doctson pick still stings. 

 

More to your point, we have done a good job drafting in the 1st round since that abysmal trade for RG3. We just need to keep building on that and getting value for our picks in the later rounds like we have been doing. We really need to work on our 2nd round picks which haven't amounted to much.

 

2015	5	Brandon Scherff	G	Iowa
2016	22	Josh Doctson	WR	Texas Christian
2017	17	Jonathan Allen	DT	Alabama
2018	13	Daron Payne	NT
2019	15	Dwayne Haskins	QB	Ohio State
	26	Montez Sweat	DE	Mississippi State	[aq]
2020	2	Chase Young	DE	Ohio State

 

 

Vs our 2nd rounders which include David Amerson, Sua Cravens, Trent Murphy, Ryan Anderson, Preston Smith and Derrius Guice. Bleh.