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2021 Draft Order / Tracker: Current Pick #19


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I can explain my take on “let’s lose” but won’t speak for others.

 

In season’s that the team is bad/no chance of winning games the idea functions as a coping mechanism as well as a consolation prize for enduring a really poor season.

 

Lets lose allows a team the chance at a high end, blue chip prospect. This is especially important when that prospect is a quarterback. This is a QB league. And while they don’t fill all the holes, they fill more of them than any other position. 
 

In reality, though, “let’s lose” in a fan function and not one directed towards the team.

 

Teams, even when they trade away guys and understand that their chances are slim to do much of anything still hope that they can catch lightning in a bottle and win games, make the playoffs and go on an epic run. 
 

But they take those risks knowing the consolation is a high draft pick that can help their roster moving forward.

 

I never outwardly root for the team to lose, even when I think it’s best if they do. But I don’t think you can look at people who hope for that in what some believe to be a lost season as a bad fan. They are a different fan who is tired of enduring long stretches without a top end QB and being mired in mediocrity. 
 

I can’t actively root for a loss. Again, even when I think it’s best I find myself getting off the couch and clapping when we do something great. 
 

I’d imagine a great number of people who are concerned with draft choice are similar to I am when it pertains to that... though there are some who really WANT to lose... but I’d imagine that actually number is low. 
 

People don’t want hollow wins that lead us to no where but further mediocrity, is what it boils down to.

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1 minute ago, Dan T. said:

How does the upcoming draft look for sideline-to-sideline inside linebackers?


Micah Parsons, top 8

 

Dylan Moses, anywhere from 10-40ish

 

Nick Bolton, somewhere between round 2-4

 

Chazz Surratt, somewhere between round 2-4

 

The ND backer whose name I hate spelling 10-30

 

Gonna be more guys to add to that list as we go. And these guys could move around a little...

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8 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:


You will never accept Payne. We chose him over James. We know the truth.

 

LOL, I still think they made the wrong move.    I didn't dislike Payne.  I thought he'd be a good player not a great one and I saw James as a star.  I still do on both points but James has been injury prone so that balances the damage out perhaps.

 

Speaking of which here's an updated PFF scores for the season. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-11-27 at 12.24.44 PM.png

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Top 21 QB's in the league excluding Tom Brady because he's an anomaly.

 

The average draft position was pick # 22

 

Kyler Murray

Matt Ryan

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Teddy Bridgewater

Baker Mayfield

Matthew Stafford

Aaron Rodgers

Deshaun Watson

Philip Rivers

Patrick Mahomes

Derek Carr

Jared Goff

Kirk Cousins

Cam Newton

Drew Brees

Carson Wentz

Ben Roethlisberger

Jimmy G

Russell Wilson

Ryan Tannehill

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Whether or not we win the division, lose our first playoff game and get the 19th pick or we don’t win another game this year yesterday was worth whatever damage it did to our draft position.

 

It was Thanksgiving day a nationally televised game on the road against the team I was taught to hate before I went to kindergarten and we didn’t just win— we thoroughly out-coached, out-played, out-smarted, out-physicaled and out-desired them from beginning to end.

 

The most satisfying day of football viewing since the Gibbs 1.0 era. 

 

I’ll take that memory to the grave with a smile on my face.

 

 

Edited by TrancesWithWolves
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7 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

As a card carrying member of the Suck For The High Pick club I went in rooting for a loss. But it's Dallas on Thanksgiving and after seeing how much better then were playing, it was really noticeable from the start, I had to root to kick some Cowboys ass. 

 

I know I'll regret it come draft day but damned yesterday was fun.  

I was getting grief a couple of weeks ago; when I said I want us to beat Dallas to complete a sweep. Of course, That was before we beat the Bengals. I was assuming we would finish 3-13.

 

We may have to come up with a plan B; to get that long term QB. This team will finish anywhere from 5-11 to 7-9. If we win the East, Plan B. 

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54 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

Top 21 QB's in the league excluding Tom Brady because he's an anomaly.

 

The average draft position was pick # 22

I ask this question with complete sincerity - when you say "average" are you talking "mean" (add up each position and divide by the number of players) or the mode (the most common draft position)?  (You could mean "median" which would be the exact halfway point but that's kind of useless.)  I think mode might be the better indicator than mean.

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4 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

I ask this question with complete sincerity - when you say "average" are you talking "mean" (add up each position and divide by the number of players) or the mode (the most common draft position)?  (You could mean "median" which would be the exact halfway point but that's kind of useless.)  I think mode might be the better indicator than mean.

 

Most useful would actually be median + standard deviation...

 

Though if we're really being rigorous, would make more sense to see what # QB they were in their draft class, since the other positions can be more or less deep depending on the year.  Would rather see frequency of QB1, QB2, QB3 all the way to undrafted.

Edited by CapsSkins
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1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

Top 21 QB's in the league excluding Tom Brady because he's an anomaly.

 

The average draft position was pick # 22

 

Kyler Murray

Matt Ryan

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Teddy Bridgewater

Baker Mayfield

Matthew Stafford

Aaron Rodgers

Deshaun Watson

Philip Rivers

Patrick Mahomes

Derek Carr

Jared Goff

Kirk Cousins

Cam Newton

Drew Brees

Carson Wentz

Ben Roethlisberger

Jimmy G

Russell Wilson

Ryan Tannehill

A little misleading with Russell and Kirk in the 3rd and 4th. What would be the median without those two since everyone else is either a first rounder or a super high second.

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I understand the idea of tanking and wouldn't have been upset at all if we lost yesterday.

 

But I'll say the same thing I said after the first Dallas win. If you're winning because young guys are stepping up and dominating, I mean isn't that kinda what you want when you're a rebuilding team?

 

I mean, are the guys supposed to lose games on purpose?

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1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

Top 21 QB's in the league excluding Tom Brady because he's an anomaly.

 

The average draft position was pick # 22

 

Kyler Murray

Matt Ryan

Lamar Jackson

Josh Allen

Teddy Bridgewater

Baker Mayfield

Matthew Stafford

Aaron Rodgers

Deshaun Watson

Philip Rivers

Patrick Mahomes

Derek Carr

Jared Goff

Kirk Cousins

Cam Newton

Drew Brees

Carson Wentz

Ben Roethlisberger

Jimmy G

Russell Wilson

Ryan Tannehill

 

#22 is pretty high as for averaging it out considering how many picks exist in the typical draft which is like 250.   

 

11 of those top 21 players are top 10 picks.   

13 of the 21 are top 12.   

15 of the 21 in the first round.   

Carr and Brees were super high in the 2nd.   

Jimmy G in the late 2nd. 

 

Russell and Kirk help bring the overall average down. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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3 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Most useful would actually be median + standard deviation...

 

Though if we're really being rigorous, would make more sense to see what # QB they were in their draft class, since the other positions can be more or less deep depending on the year.  Would rather see frequency of QB1, QB2, QB3 all the way to undrafted.

You are spot on!  The other thing that might be helpful is if there are any other common draft scenarios that affect the QB group, like if there are stud edge rushers or whether the teams drafting at the top need QBs.  This is where analytics is crucial because from the end of the Super Bowl until the first pick of the draft, there's only so much conjecture you can repeatedly engage in.

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Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

#22 is pretty high as for averaging it out considering how many picks exist in the typical draft which is like 250.   

 

11 of those top 21 players are top 10 picks.   13 of the 21 are top 12.   15 of the 21 in the first round.    Carr and Brees were super high in the 2nd.    Jimmy G in the late 2nd.  Russell and Kirk help bring the overall average down. 

Yep you basically have to draft one in the first round, but they seem to be available all over the 1st.

 

If we end up picking 19th I wouldn't be opposed to trading up to get a QB. Just for comparison, the Chiefs moved up from 27 to 10 in 2017 to get Mahomes and had to give up a 3rd and 2018 1st. Moving from 19 to 10 isn't as big a leap and shouldn't cost as much, if someone we like falls to that spot(doesn't have to be 10 just saying for comparison sakes).

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7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I understand the idea of tanking and wouldn't have been upset at all if we lost yesterday.

 

But I'll say the same thing I said after the first Dallas win. If you're winning because young guys are stepping up and dominating, I mean isn't that kinda what you want when you're a rebuilding team?

 

I mean, are the guys supposed to lose games on purpose?

 

Nope they aren't supposed to lose on purpose.  I am ok with the win too but want/hope to see that game wasn't an anomoly.  If it ends up the last win in a forgettable season and it takes us out of the running for a QB, then I'll look back at this game in January without the same fondness I have for it now.  But if its a springboard to better things then let it fly. 

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep you basically have to draft one in the first round, but they seem to be available all over the 1st.

 

Most of the successful picks outlined there weren't all over the first but the higher part of the first.

 

If people want to argue this year lets say a mid to late first round QB will likely be the ticket.  That's cool.  The question then to me is who is the guy then?  I know we aren't professionals but heck we talk football all the time.   So I am curious what player anyone thinks is the Russell Wilson of this draft for example or the next Derek Carr?  

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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27 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

A little misleading with Russell and Kirk in the 3rd and 4th. What would be the median without those two since everyone else is either a first rounder or a super high second.

Here's the full list.  To answer your question the new avg would be 15 but I already took Brady out of the equation and don't see why Wilson and Cousins should be removed, the number is what it is.

                                                                                  Year Drafted                                Overall Pick

Arizona Cardinals  Kyler Murray 2019 1
Atlanta Falcons  Matt Ryan 2008  3
Baltimore Ravens  Lamar Jackson 2018  32
Buffalo Bills  Josh Allen 2018 7
Carolina Panthers  Teddy Bridgewater 2014  32
Cleveland Browns  Baker Mayfield 2018 1
Detroit Lions  Matthew Stafford 2009 1
Green Bay Packers  Aaron Rodgers 2005 24
Houston Texans  Deshaun Watson 2017 12
Indianapolis Colts  Philip Rivers 2004 4
Kansas City Chiefs  Patrick Mahomes 2017 10
Las Vegas Raiders  Derek Carr 2014  36
Los Angeles Rams  Jared Goff 2016 1
Minnesota Vikings  Kirk Cousins 2012  102
New England Patriots  Cam Newton 2011 1
New Orleans Saints  Drew Brees 201 32
Philadelphia Eagles  Carson Wentz 2016 2
Pittsburgh Steelers  Ben Roethlisberger 2004 11
San Francisco 49ers  Jimmy G 2014  62
Seattle Seahawks  Russell Wilson 2012 75
Tennessee Titans  Ryan Tannehill 2012 8
Edited by JSSkinz
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27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

#22 is pretty high as for averaging it out considering how many picks exist in the typical draft which is like 250.   

 

11 of those top 21 players are top 10 picks.   

13 of the 21 are top 12.   

15 of the 21 in the first round.   

Carr and Brees were super high in the 2nd.   

Jimmy G in the late 2nd. 

 

Russell and Kirk help bring the overall average down. 

The overall point is there will be opportunities whether we capitalize on them or someone else does.  Nobody really knows if these QB's are going to become good NFL players, we're not getting Lawrence and everyone else in the draft is a question mark.

 

But it also shows we can move up to 10-15 without giving up as much draft collateral to possibly get the young QB we eventually need, so maybe its not all about getting a top 5 pick.

 

The best QB's on that list were drafted 10th or later.

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So I took @JSSkinz list and converted to # QB selected. I also added Dak and Brady bc IMO you can't just throw out inconvenient data, outlier or not.

 

Kyler Murray - QB1

Matt Ryan - QB1

Lamar Jackson - QB5

Josh Allen - QB3

Teddy Bridgewater - QB3

Baker Mayfield - QB1

Matthew Stafford - QB1

Aaron Rodgers - QB2

Deshaun Watson - QB3

Philip Rivers - QB2

Patrick Mahomes - QB2

Derek Carr - QB4

Jared Goff - QB1

Kirk Cousins - QB8

Cam Newton - QB1

Drew Brees - QB2

Carson Wentz - QB2

Ben Roethlisberger - QB3

Jimmy G - QB5

Russell Wilson - QB6

Ryan Tannehill - QB3

Dak Prescott - QB8

Tom Brady - QB7

 

Here are the summary stats for the 23 "starting level" QB's:

 

QB1: 6 (Kyler, Matt Ryan, Baker, Stafford, Goff, Cam)

QB2: 5 (Rodgers, Rivers, Mahomes, Brees, Wentz)

QB3: 5 (Josh Allen, Teddy, Deshaun, Big Ben, Tannehill)

QB4: 1 (Carr)

QB5: 2 (Lamar, Jimmy G)

QB6: 1 (Russ)

QB7: 1 (Brady)

QB8: 2 (Cousins, Dak)

 

So yeah, you really wanna be taking one of the first three QB's if you can. But if you're gonna take the 4th or 5th guy, IMO you bet on athleticism & let them sit a little. Could be the Trey Lance model from what I hear.

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1 minute ago, CapsSkins said:

So I took @JSSkinz list and converted to # QB selected. I also added Dak and Brady bc IMO you can't just throw out inconvenient data, outlier or not.

My point in posting that data was thats theres opportunity throughout the first two rounds, leaving those 2 players out actually hurts that narrative but I knew someone would have an issue with Brady because he was drafted so low and he's the GOAT.  I just forgot about Dak, I pulled the data from a site that excluded the injured players so I had to plug them in manually.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

My point in posting that data was thats theres opportunity throughout the first two rounds, leaving those 2 players out actually hurts that narrative but I knew someone would have an issue with Brady because he was drafted so low and he's the GOAT.  I just forgot about Dak, I pulled the data from a site that excluded the injured players so I had to plug them in manually.

 

 

 

All good, wasn't a dig.

 

Here's something depressing. So we all know Tom Brady was pick #199. But what I didn't know: three picks later, pick #202, your Washington Redskins selected... also a Quarterback. Todd Husak from Stanford. Imagine if they had Brady above Husak on their boards. We were just 3 picks away from the GOAT!!

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15 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

So I took @JSSkinz list and converted to # QB selected. I also added Dak and Brady bc IMO you can't just throw out inconvenient data, outlier or not.

 

Kyler Murray - QB1

Matt Ryan - QB1

Lamar Jackson - QB5

Josh Allen - QB3

Teddy Bridgewater - QB3

Baker Mayfield - QB1

Matthew Stafford - QB1

Aaron Rodgers - QB2

Deshaun Watson - QB3

Philip Rivers - QB2

Patrick Mahomes - QB2

Derek Carr - QB4

Jared Goff - QB1

Kirk Cousins - QB8

Cam Newton - QB1

Drew Brees - QB2

Carson Wentz - QB2

Ben Roethlisberger - QB3

Jimmy G - QB5

Russell Wilson - QB6

Ryan Tannehill - QB3

Dak Prescott - QB8

Tom Brady - QB7

 

Here are the summary stats for the 23 "starting level" QB's:

 

QB1: 6 (Kyler, Matt Ryan, Baker, Stafford, Goff, Cam)

QB2: 5 (Rodgers, Rivers, Mahomes, Brees, Wentz)

QB3: 5 (Josh Allen, Teddy, Deshaun, Big Ben, Tannehill)

QB4: 1 (Carr)

QB5: 2 (Lamar, Jimmy G)

QB6: 1 (Russ)

QB7: 1 (Brady)

QB8: 2 (Cousins, Dak)

 

So yeah, you really wanna be taking one of the first three QB's if you can. But if you're gonna take the 4th or 5th guy, IMO you bet on athleticism & let them sit a little. Could be the Trey Lance model from what I hear.


After QB4 this year I’m not entirely sure that I’d even think about wasting a pick before the 3rd on the QB class. There is some potential but...

 

Lance is probably going to go earlyish as well. I don’t see him lasting beyond 15 but this is the NFL Draft and anything can happen.

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33 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

The overall point is there will be opportunities whether we capitalize on them or someone else does.  Nobody really knows if these QB's are going to become good NFL players, we're not getting Lawrence and everyone else in the draft is a question mark.

 

But it also shows we can move up to 10-15 without giving up as much draft collateral to possibly get the young QB we eventually need, so maybe its not all about getting a top 5 pick.

 

The best QB's on that list were drafted 10th or later.

 

I made my point to death on this thread where I am even boring myself with it.  😀  So I'll just succinctly say the number of misses is greater the further down you go in the draft.  The more fish in the sea you have as you use the whole draft versus a top 10 pick increase the odds for success for every position outside the top 10 not just QB.  But its an unfair comparison to judge 10 players versus 240 players unless the trade off is you get either a top 10 pick or instead rewarded with the next 240 players.  If that were true then yes I agree that I'd take the full pool of QBs in the next 240 picks versus purely the top 10.  

 

The odds that some team strikes gold with a QB later in the draft is good but the odds that most teams miss with picks at QB later in the draft is much greater.  No guarantees but the higher you pick, the better shot you got.  

 

I don't think Fields and Wilson are big question marks.  But will see.  As for your point about 10-15 that to me has some recent precedent.  The Chiefs traded up to 10 for Mahomes.  Texans traded up for Watson.  it's not hard to guess who that dude would be here.  Trey Lance.  Assuming they pick 19, yeah If they love Trey Lance yes they might be able to trade up for him, it would likely cost them their 2022 #1 pick.    Tough for me to get jazzed about that.  But if they think he's a stud what the heck. 

 

I am not saying you are on the opposite side of these points just explaining my thought process. 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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2 hours ago, 50yrSKINSfan said:

I don't understand the let's loose attitude. I for one am sick of it. Do you see Pitt losing for a better draft choice? No, they trade their high draft choices, which are not that high anyway, for veteran secondary players as they do not want to train players if they can get a vet instead. No risk for busts that way. Fine if you have the top pick but there is no way you are getting that this year. Even if you got the second pick again there is no guarantee the QB you take will be a franchise guy anyway. I suppose we did not get any offers last year for the second pick so we had to make a choice.  I felt that if you do not take the QB then trade the pick but everyone wanted the pass rusher so fine. You got what you wanted. Way it worked out is ok with Smith playing better than expected. I did not see that coming. Now you have him this year and next and pos Haskins will learn and grow, and if that happens in the next 2 years then you will be set at QB for years. This team is young and it needs to learn how to win especially on the road. Yesterday's game was so enjoyable it is worth whatever penalty we will have to pay in draft capital. We did not sweep the boys since 2012 and we lost to them 8 times on Thanksgiving so I say screw the draft pick and enjoy the 2 ass kicking wins over the boys with the whole country watching. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

 

It's really simple.  A few key losses last year resulted in Chase Young. It also allowed the team to pick 2nd or 3rd in every round of that draft.  Had they won a few more meaningless games Chase would be on the Giants and we would have drafted a different player.  

 

Right now this team needs a franchise QB. While there are no guarantees, especially at that position, the higher picks give you a better chance, and it gives them higher picks through that draft too.

 

 

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@Skinsinparadise I would be thrilled if they feel Lance is a special, franchise-caiber guy and they get him, even if it means giving up a first.

 

Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Trey Lance next year w/ an improved roster and Year 2 of the RivEra could get you to 10-6 PLUS the belief that the franchise guy is on the roster. Lance takes over in 2022 or 2023 and we're contending for our first 11+ win season since 1991.

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  • zskins changed the title to 2021 Draft Order / Tracker: Current Pick #19

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