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2021 Draft Order / Tracker: Current Pick #19


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The Eagles look like they could easily drop the next three games and go to 3-9-1 and last in the division. Us, Dallas and NYG look like 4-9 is very probable after the next three rounds of games. 
 

That’s an ugly scenario. Massive game Thursdays for several reasons depending on your stance.

 

Those last 2 weeks of divisional games amongst the four teams are going to be surreal. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, JoggingGod said:

That’s not how it works anymore. Teams have to take chances on a QB regardless of what team they havem

 

 

well yeah, if the guy you want is there... Drafting a QB in the first round if you have no confidence that the QB can be successful is bad business.  

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9 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

well yeah, if the guy you want is there... Drafting a QB in the first round if you have no confidence that the QB can be successful is bad business.  

Yeah exactly it works both ways. I don't believe in drafting a QB just because you need one. That's how you end up taking someone like Blaine Gabbert, passing up on talent like Ryan Kerrigan and JJ Watt among others.

 

But this looks like the year to get one. Hopefully we'll be in position...

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I recall one person had some hope that maybe Jax would skip Qb in the draft and ride with what they have in house - sounds like no way.

 

Uh yeah, if Jacksonville's QB is performing worse than Haskins was, safe to say they are going to be in the market.

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1 hour ago, philibusters said:

As much as I hate to say it, I would mind us losing to the Cowboys.

 

I'm down for the tank, but there's just no way we're going to defeat Tank Commander Gase. The Jets have losing down to a science man. It's an art form for them.

 

We'll have a top 5 pick most likely, so not sure who we're going to draft. We desperately need a stud QB, but outside of Lawrence, I don't know if there's another consensus top QB. Kind of wary with Fields after just drafting an OSU bust.

 

 

Edited by ExoDus84
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11 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

We won't pick ahead of the Jets or Jags. They have 1/2 all but secured at this point.

 

Still would love to pick 3rd and ensure Zach Wilson.


I think the Bengals have a very good shot at #3 right now, but the league is top heavy in crap this year so it’s anyone’s guess.

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I recall one person had some hope that maybe Jax would skip Qb in the draft and ride with what they have in house - sounds like no way. 

 

 

 

Jacksonville will have a new coach. They will draft probably Justin Fields; if goes #1 as expected. 

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We can explain this to them maybe better than any other franchise.  Finding a franchise Qb alone is really really hard let alone the next Tom Brady.   Belichick supposedly the greatest coach in NFL history all of a sudden looks very mortal without a big time QB -- funny how that works. 

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Dirt said:

This is such a hard topic to comment on for me.  The discussion is a lot of repeating things over and over yet a lot of ideas and lines of thinking.

 

I've stuck to this one lately:  plenty of QBs have been drafted outside of the top 3 picks that wind up fine or good or great.  As far as we're concerned, we need to worry about committing to a new QB let alone developing them.  We've failed at both, no one knew who the coach was gonna be half the time, and Snyder had to be involved in these decisions.

 

So the draft pick # itself just doesn't ****ing matter until we stabilize the process.  Keep Dan away.  Wherever you pick, pick a guy the coaches like and go.  I like the idea of a second round QB developing as much as I like the idea of having the 1st overall because that high pick hasn't meant **** for us QB wise as long as I've been alive.

 

So I don't care where we pick and I wanna see the cowboys lose on Thanksgiving.  I wanna be the NFC east winner even in this awful year.   I wanna see the team win.  Its all I got left.

 

The difference in picking in the mid first to late first versus 2nd round, I agree is yawn for QBs.    Most of us are talking about taking a QB much higher than that.  Only rodeo for that under Dan was RG3 and at least for one year it was awesome.  

 

If its same old same old.  The Jets will take Lawrence.  Jags Fields.  Some other team maybe takes Zach Wilson.  we fiddle with Mac Jones or Kyle Trask later in the first and then wonder why we can never get it right at QB. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Im hoping we beat Dallas' ass on Thursday.. Trying to root for us to "win" the draft is about as fruitful as rooting for us to win a game. Rarely works out, regardless who/where we draft. So, beat Dallas!! After that I'll go back to not really caring one way or the other what our weekly outcome is. 

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If I tried to sum up the debate on the thread its something like:

 

A. if you are great at QB you are likely a winner if not right away then pretty soon. 

B.  The same point doesn't apply to LT. 

C.  it's about 10 times harder finding a franchise QB than it is a good O lineman

 

Then you got:

 

A.  Build the trenches first

B.  Get the Qb later and they in turn will be more likely be successful.

 

Both arguments have merit in theory.  But I think the debate comes down to how realistic some believe each point to be. 

 

In short, I think what's hovering around this franchise is how awful we've been at finding that elusive franchise QB. And we know its hard for every team to find that guy but we've been especially bad at it.   So there is plenty of angst about the notion of well we will find that guy later because if the past is prologue the odds that we find that dude later is low.  So for those who think this strategy will work they actually have more optimism about this dynamic changing for the better than some of us or maybe they don't think its that hard to find a franchise QB. 

 

Then we got a nuance debate of where to find that franchise QB.

 

A.  You can find that QB anywhere in the draft, the proof is how many franchise guys aren't one of the top 2 guys in the draft, etc.

B. The higher you pick a Qb in the draft -- the better your shot. 

C.  if you play the odds and look at the actual stats the lower you pick the QB the more likely you are going to miss 

 

I think C is the most nuanced point here.  To me its the operative point.   If we don't take the freak talent (mobility, ball placement, etc) QB and don't shop in the stories with the Cam Newtons, Kyler Murrays, Joe Burrows, etc and instead pick from the next litter of QBs why are we shocked that we don't end up one of the lucky ones who hit gold with the next tier of guys? 

 

For every Patrick Mahomes there is a Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen, etc.  If you shop at Tiffany's you are more likely to find that jewel than not.  Shopping in the aisle of the 3rd-5th most highly regarded (granted it changes some depending on that specific draft, some are better than others) QB, isn't shopping at Tiffanys. 

 

Some argue that grabbing Campbell or Ramsey or Haskins is indeed shopping at Tiffanys because they are first rounders.  Some of us (me included) don't agree with that even a little.  There is typically a big difference in getting the freak talent at QB then shopping later on in the draft even if its in the first round.   Heck I can make that same argument for other positions, too.  There is a reason why teams covet top 5 picks so much and you got to trade the moon to get one of them if you want to trade up.  And that reason isn't that picking 18 and picking third is basically the same thing. 

 

And yes there are no guarantees.  It's all about playing the odds.  And the fact that a pool of 200 players will score more hits in that mix than a pool of 5 players doesn't refute this point.  Unless the draft changes to if you don't have a top 5 pick -- they give you the opportunity to draft 100 players, instead.  

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

For every Patrick Mahomes there is a Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen, etc.  If you shop at Tiffany's you are more likely to find that jewel than not.  Shopping in the aisle of the 3rd-5th most highly regarded (granted it changes some depending on that specific draft, some are better than others) QB, isn't shopping at Tiffanys. 

Hard to make that argument when Mahomes was in that 3rd-5th range.

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3 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Hard to make that argument when Mahomes was in that 3rd-5th range.

 

I specifically said Mahomes was in that category that's why I mentioned him in that context.  So not sure I get your point in the context of mine?  Mahomes refutes Christian Ponder and company?  

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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1974 and 1989 (which was DAL's only win and kept us out of the playoffs).  You always want to beat Dallas, period.  You kids out there need to put on your VR goggles and experience what Dallas Week was like in the 70's.  Twice a year, schools in Virginia were closed and people roamed Dulles airport with whacking sticks looking for snakes flying in from Texas.  (Oilers fans got a break since they were on our side.)  Hell, the Dallas team plane had to fly in at night with an Air Force escort just to avoid a battery of the most accurate anti-aircraft slingshots prisoners at Lorton could make earning 3 cents an hour.  Texas Reps and Senators went into the witness protection program.  Dallas Week was *intense*.

 

I don't care what the fargin' repercussions are.  I've been a diehard fan since 1975 and I'll never, ever not want to beat Dallas.

:dallas_sucks:

:dallas_sucks:

:dallas_sucks:

:229:

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8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I specifically said Mahomes was in that category that's why I mentioned him in that context.  So not sure I get your point in the context of mine?  Mahomes refutes Christian Ponder and company?  

Nah. I misread it. 

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