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2021 Draft Order / Tracker: Current Pick #19


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12 hours ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:


Only one of those has produced a decent NFL so far in the last decade. 4-5 stars doesn’t automatically translate to amazing player at the next level. Same way HS b ball players maybe 4-5 but quite a few never hit that hype in college. 

Not remotely related to the point I was making but ok. 

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3 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

I disagree.  How many starting QBs from those 3 schools are currently in the NFL?  Clemson has 1 (will have 2 after the next draft), Bama has 1, and OSU has none.   They may be able to bring in 5 star recruits, but a 5 star recruit in HS does not necessarily translate to the NFL.  Kyle Allen was a 5 star recruit coming out of HS, he went to Texas A & M before transferring to Houston.   The top 3 have a shot at 5 star recruits, but with the current NFL requirements, they're likely to only find 1 every 2-3 years and there is no guarantee they live up to that ranking.  If they go into the home of a 5 star recruit and try to bring them in, but tell them there are 2 more ahead of him so he likely will only get 1 year to start.... that recruit is gonna say 'thanks but no thanks.'  They're going to want to play.  Clemson could not have sold a 5 star recruit til this past offseason because Lawrance was entrenched as the starter.  The ultimately got Uiagalelei who is in fact a 5 star recruit, but he's the successor, so now it's 2 years before another 5 star recruit may ultimately decide to go there.   

 

There are a lot of other schools that 5 star recruit could go to and start for 3 years... 

Again, not the point of my post. The point is a good number of the top high school QB recruits in the country will be concentrated into three schools. Their odds of producing successful NFL QBs is going to be a lot higher than it was before they were able to sign the top recruits in every single state in the union any given year. Maybe next year Clemson won't be able to get the best QB in the nation, but when D.J is going into a draft eligible season they'll be in the mix to sign any high school QB they set their sights on. 

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44 minutes ago, Berggy9598 said:

Again, not the point of my post. The point is a good number of the top high school QB recruits in the country will be concentrated into three schools. Their odds of producing successful NFL QBs is going to be a lot higher than it was before they were able to sign the top recruits in every single state in the union any given year. Maybe next year Clemson won't be able to get the best QB in the nation, but when D.J is going into a draft eligible season they'll be in the mix to sign any high school QB they set their sights on. 

 

 

I'm sorry I guess I'm not grasping your point... the way I read it, you feel those power schools will have a better shot at producing an NFL qb because of their prestige, and my point was a 5 star QB may chose to go elsewhere because they want to play... that those schools don't have a situation where that 5 star can start as a freshman or sophomore that

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34 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I'm sorry I guess I'm not grasping your point... the way I read it, you feel those power schools will have a better shot at producing an NFL qb because of their prestige, and my point was a 5 star QB may chose to go elsewhere because they want to play... that those schools don't have a situation where that 5 star can start as a freshman or sophomore that

They have a better shot because they're consistently signing 5 star recruits at the position. It doesn't every QB they sign will make it in the NFL but it's a game changer in regards to their ability to produce QBs that make it in the NFL. It used to be very rare that a program produces more than one legit franchise QB in the span of a few years, but it'll start happening more frequently because of what those three schools are doing in the recruiting arena. You can add Oklahoma to that list too. 

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7 hours ago, Berggy9598 said:

They have a better shot because they're consistently signing 5 star recruits at the position. It doesn't every QB they sign will make it in the NFL but it's a game changer in regards to their ability to produce QBs that make it in the NFL. It used to be very rare that a program produces more than one legit franchise QB in the span of a few years, but it'll start happening more frequently because of what those three schools are doing in the recruiting arena. You can add Oklahoma to that list too. 

 

 

Its absolutely a fair point, and I believe I pointed out Oklahoma being the only one that currently has 2.  It's not looking great for Baker Mayfield ascending to elite status but he's likely going to be league for a while.  Kyler looks legit but that book isn't written... yet.  

 

I am not taking the hard stance that you cannot take a power team QB.  I'm simply stating you have to weigh in the talent surrounding the player heavier than we have in the past.  It can explain quite a bit.  Not all elite schools have their QBs fail, but a lot of elite schools likely have the other 10 guys can elevate the QB play and compensate some of their deficiencies.  That in fact is what coaches get paid to do.... mask deficiencies and use talents to produce.  

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1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Its absolutely a fair point, and I believe I pointed out Oklahoma being the only one that currently has 2.  It's not looking great for Baker Mayfield ascending to elite status but he's likely going to be league for a while.  Kyler looks legit but that book isn't written... yet.  

 

I am not taking the hard stance that you cannot take a power team QB.  I'm simply stating you have to weigh in the talent surrounding the player heavier than we have in the past.  It can explain quite a bit.  Not all elite schools have their QBs fail, but a lot of elite schools likely have the other 10 guys can elevate the QB play and compensate some of their deficiencies.  That in fact is what coaches get paid to do.... mask deficiencies and use talents to produce.  

 

For what its worth Kyler Murray signed with Texas A&M out of HS and Baker Mayfield with Texas Tech out of HS.  They both transferred to Oklahoma.     Kyler Murray was considered a top 10 QB HS prospect.   Mayfield was more in the 11 to 30 range.  Oklahoma's current QB, Rattler was a kid they recruited out of HS.

 

Joe Burrow, out of LSU last year, originally signed with Ohio St his hometown school.  He transferred after he got beat out by Dwayne Haskins.   Justin Fields in this years class signed with Georgia (and was originally committed to Penn St.).   He transferred to Ohio St when he felt he didn't get a fair shake against the incumbent starter Jake Fromm (I do think Georgia messed up that situation, but its tough to bench a QB who is winning).

 

With transfers becoming more common, I think some of the elite schools may get more NFL QB's, not through HS recruiting, which while not a crap shoot, has a lot of uncertainty due to scouting fairly raw prospects, but due to getting more polished elite QB's as transfers that want to play for a national title.

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15 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Its absolutely a fair point, and I believe I pointed out Oklahoma being the only one that currently has 2.  It's not looking great for Baker Mayfield ascending to elite status but he's likely going to be league for a while.  Kyler looks legit but that book isn't written... yet.  

 

I am not taking the hard stance that you cannot take a power team QB.  I'm simply stating you have to weigh in the talent surrounding the player heavier than we have in the past.  It can explain quite a bit.  Not all elite schools have their QBs fail, but a lot of elite schools likely have the other 10 guys can elevate the QB play and compensate some of their deficiencies.  That in fact is what coaches get paid to do.... mask deficiencies and use talents to produce.  

I said that earlier in the thread about Justin Fields and OSU's oline. What can NFL teams do though these are cold hearted recruiting juggernauts so they'll almost have to accept it as an inevitability and draft the QB they're in love with.   

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On 11/12/2020 at 11:19 PM, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I'm sorry I guess I'm not grasping your point... the way I read it, you feel those power schools will have a better shot at producing an NFL qb because of their prestige, and my point was a 5 star QB may chose to go elsewhere because they want to play... that those schools don't have a situation where that 5 star can start as a freshman or sophomore that

I'm not sure that 5 star recruits generally are all that concerned with being able to beat out other players for a position on the team.  Most of them tend to be confident in their abilities.  I disagree with your assertion that power schools have trouble landing 5 star recruits.  Seems to me that the fact is that most 5 star recruits do, indeed, sign with power schools.  That is a major factor in those schools continuing to be power schools year after year.  Now, maybe you think that most 5 star recruits opt to go with Rutgers, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, and Western Michigan, but I certainly don't.  I could see that who the various power schools have in place as the starter could have an effect on which power school a top recruit elects to go to, but I disagree that it is the norm for such players to choose to eschew the power schools altogether.  There is just simply no evidence of that.

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On 11/12/2020 at 7:07 PM, Warhead36 said:

Darnold is damaged goods. Hard pass on him. He might turn it around but the history of the league suggests he's done. Its extremely rare for a QB to start his career that poorly(whether its his fault or not)and then bounce back.

 

Yeah I don't get the Darnald talk. As I keep pointing out how many first round busts were traded and then turned into a franchise QB? 

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8 hours ago, Skinsota said:

BAQ. Best available Quarterback 

Allen is good but can’t survive a season. 

 

There appear to be some really good options. 

Hopefully we can get us one. 

 

IMO the emergence of Zach Wilson as a likely top tier QB prospect helps us. At first it was basically just Lawrence and Fields, with Lance being a bit of an unknown and possible dark horse candidate to be picked high in the 1st. But with Wilson's stock possibly skyrocketing that means we might not necessarily have to be in the top 3 to get one of the top QBs. 

 

As far as Allen, even if he could stay healthy he isn't the answer. He's not a horrible QB, but he's nothing special. Really good choice as a backup though.

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7 hours ago, Number 44 said:

I'm not sure that 5 star recruits generally are all that concerned with being able to beat out other players for a position on the team.  Most of them tend to be confident in their abilities.  I disagree with your assertion that power schools have trouble landing 5 star recruits.  Seems to me that the fact is that most 5 star recruits do, indeed, sign with power schools.  That is a major factor in those schools continuing to be power schools year after year.  Now, maybe you think that most 5 star recruits opt to go with Rutgers, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, and Western Michigan, but I certainly don't.  I could see that who the various power schools have in place as the starter could have an effect on which power school a top recruit elects to go to, but I disagree that it is the norm for such players to choose to eschew the power schools altogether.  There is just simply no evidence of that.

 

 

Thats fair, but it would also be my bet that Uiagalelei isn't the only 5 star recruit QB that Clemson went hard after.  I can only imagine that there are more than 1 that have opted to go elsewhere because of the Trevor Lawrence factor..

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15 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Thats fair, but it would also be my bet that Uiagalelei isn't the only 5 star recruit QB that Clemson went hard after.  I can only imagine that there are more than 1 that have opted to go elsewhere because of the Trevor Lawrence factor..

 

In general HS recruits don't worry all that much what is front of them.  That said, QB would the exception to that rule to the extent there is an exception to the rule.   Usually 25 or 26 of the top 30 rated HS QB's have verballed to a team by the start of their senior season.   That is not the case at any other position (though its becoming more common at all the positions).   That said an Alabama or Clemson will be able to get a top 10 or so HS QB regardless of what they currently have.  Some of the kids value playing right away more than others, but even the ones that don't really value it, usually optimistically assume they will be starting by year 3.

 

HS QB recruiting is a little bit like college HS QB recruiting.  Usually the overrated kids are fast and have a nice arm.  There will always be good under the radar college QB who have average physical tools but a fast CPU (they process the play after the snap well), but scouting a QB's CPU in HS is hard because the defenses are simpler and the coverage not as good.

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13 minutes ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

So the WTF will pick third in a draft with only two franchise QB’s... why does this seem so fitting... 🙁

I actually like Zack Wilson better than Fields.

 

And remember, Deshaun Watson was the 3rd QB taken in his draft(one pick after Mahomes). Lamar Jackson was 4th. So was Aaron Rodgers.

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9 minutes ago, method man said:


He’s also a better fit for Scott’s offense

 

I think Fields is going to be a monster.  Some scouts ironically compare him to a young Cam.  I think Turner can figure it out with Fields, too.  I like Zach Wilson a lot.  But I'd take Fields over him in a heartbeat.

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