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2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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1 minute ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:

I worry big time about another OSU QB.  They just don’t translate well in the NFL.   Basically any other position they seem to do well but not that one. 


Name another Texas Tech QB. Or Cal. Or NC State. Or Auburn. Or Wyoming. 

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I definitely agree with the idea that Trask is maybe not as good as his stats, but I have issues with putting Felipe Franks ahead of him in terms of SEC QB's.   I have not watch Franks this year, but watched him in previous seasons and he is not as good as Trask in my opinion.

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41 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

Well yeah, the only team that is envious of us is probably the Jets. But, for example, the Chargers line is worse than ours, Cincy's isn't much better. Their receivers are generally okay--but the point remains, when you're picking that high, you're not a piece or two away.

When you have Trai Turner and Buluga anchoring one side of the line you’re miles better than what we have. They’re basically a middle of the pack line. Herbert makes the line look worse than it is because he seems to be having a difficult time fully seeing defensive schemes, not all that unexpected for a rookie. He’s also dropping back 40 times a game which is ridiculous.

 

But overall, your point is well taken. I do think the chargers are a lot closer to being real contenders. Injuries, as is usual for them, has done them in.

39 minutes ago, KDawg said:


Name another Texas Tech QB. Or Cal. Or NC State. Or Auburn. Or Wyoming. 

Or Oregon, or Alabama... 

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17 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

This pretty much nails it.

 

The argument really is: if you don't like the QB prospects, do you reach on them or take someone who looks to be a sure fire stud at another position and wait another year for a QB.

 

We had a top 2 pick last year and passed on a QB. Can we really afford to do that AGAIN? We may not have a pick in range for a legit prospect again for a while.

 

I think it depends on the eval. I don't think you should force picks necessairly, pedigree/CV so to speak is what it is and sometimes QB need causes people to make stupid decisions. 

 

As bad as Haskins may have been at 15, it was infinitely better than reaching for Jones at 5. That 5 slot could've gotten a mountain of goodies in a trade down and there was NO WAY that Jones was a top 5 talent. Once the blue chip zone evaporates, usually somewhere outside the top 10, but sometimes earlier, and sometimes later taking a flyer on guys that could be Flacco's, or could be Haskins or Locker's makes sense, but reaching inside the blue chip zone for guys that really are late 1st to 30-60 talents, basically Jason Campbell type picks? That's where things are really foolish. Haskins had enough of a CV to justify reaching at 15, nobody in that class beyond Kyler justified a top 10 pick. 

 

Other than some posts at CPND and possibly over here, I can't prove my thoughts from the time period, but people who my takes over the years, can back up most of it w/the QB Evals, in looking at the prospects in round 1, I'll list who I thought were reaches at the time, I don't think crapping on guys who failed but we're well thought of at the time is really helpful. It's one thing to miss with a stupid reach/pick, it's another to have an elite prospect fail entirely (That's the difference between an RGIII bust and a Daniel Jones bust to me). 

 

Looking over the years when clubs clearly reached, how often did they hit?

Hits: Flacco, Tannehill, not sure if you put Goff and Wentz here, Mahomes

Misses: Boller, Losman, Freeman, Tebow, Gabbert, Ponder, EJ Manuel, Weeden, Bortles, Trubisky, Jones, Haskins

 

It's interesting, I'd never thought about it before compiling the list, but the hit rate w/perceived reaches taken in round 1 is incredibly low, Flacco and Tannehill were mild hits, Mahomes was a grand slam, Goff and Wentz were seen as reaches in the same way say Alex Smith or Trubisky were, but unlike Smith and Trubisky, I think the Rams and Eagles have been more or less okay w/the production, just not the inconsistency and in the latter case, the injuries. Below is a stroll down memory lane. 

 

 

2001: No QB Reaches

 

2002: None. In fairness, I never dug heavily into David Carr as a prospect, and viewed his failure as a team failure to build him a competent line (in part the Boselli injury and retirement really screwed them). Harrington was well thought of at the time.

 

2003: Not really sure. Palmer and Leftwich were values to me at slot. Boller was clearly a projection pick in the same way Josh Allen was. Ridiculous arm talent, and hope and pray from there. I think the CV was kinda slight to justify the selection, so probably a mild reach, but it wasn't horrible in the moment. I did think the Grossman pick was nuts as those guys were obvious system talents and he had a bad arm on top of it. 

 

2004: I didn't think any of the big 3 were reaches, honestly I have no memory of JP Losman, which is weird because I paid a ton of attention to that draft. 

 

2005: I was emphatic about Rodgers being a steal and the necessity of the redskins and my local niners to trade up for him after they botched it and took Alex Smith. I'm a Cal Alumni, had seen Rodgers play a ton and he was one of the best Pac-10 QB's I'd seen, probably right there with Aikman and Palmer, over the previous 15 years, but w/a much shorter track record. Thought the Packers stole him when they got him adn was so bummed that we were fixated on Campbell period.  

 

2006: Yikes, I loved Leinart, was not sure about Young (fantastic college talent but I was worried about accuracy), and knew nothing about Cutler. I remain baffled by Leinart's humbling career, I do think injury and vets superceding him drained the life out of a bit of it, but I also wonder how much he loved the game, I usually eschew those takes, but some guys, Westbunk for us, had issues with that and Leinart might be one.

 

2007: 

Honestly, I didnt know much about Russell at the time, or his cough syrup issue, but I did overrate Quinn, who I definitely liked as a prospect. 

 

2008: I didn't realize how good Ryan was, had no strong feelings either way at the time, and thought Flacco represented reasonable value at slot similar to how I thought of Haskins, if you're doing a dart throw QB pick, and it's a guy with an eval sitting him 30th-50th overall, I dont mind taking him in the mid to late round 1 if I believe the eval, and I liked Haskins well enough to think he was 50/50 same w/Flacco.

 

2009: Stafford and Freeman struck me as values, I thought the Sanchez hype was absurd, thought he was nowhere close to the prospect Palmer and Leinart were, even w/Leinart failing at the time. I'm still baffled at what happened with Freeman (kind of like Charlie Brown).

 

2010: Bradford and Tebow. The Tebow pick struck me as stupid at the time, the Bradford pick was fine considering he was carrying a sterling profile, the weird thing w/him was a team getting a 1st for him years plural after he'd proven to be an injury riddled liability at the position in the rare instances he was healthy enough to play, one of the true steals of a trade this past decade. I was a buyer on Jimmy Clausen, I love buying guys that have sketchy last years after a great first couple. You can find a lot of steals that way, of course you can find clausen's too. 

 

2011: Cam was cam, simple as that. Easy pick. I was willing to roll the dice on Locker due to his athletic profile, a huge whiff there, I was 10,000% sure Ponder would fail as I've been an FSU fan since the eighties, and knew he was god awful, and Blaine Gabbert, the name alone underlined he'd bust, nobody with that name is making the Hall. Was totally out on him. I thought Dalton and Kaep were legit value picks. Also wondered if Mallet was a steal, getting him so late, turned out the rumors that he was an epic idiot were true. 

 

2012: Huge fan of Luck, viewed him as the best QB prospect since Elway, and am sickened we lost him due to the team he was drafted by. Huge fan of RGIII as well. Loved his profile, slightly skittish about the system angle, but his deep ball completion rate, his accuracy in college, rapid improvement, it just sounded amazing. Hated Weeden, was sure he'd bust, Tannehill, a converted WR converted back to QB just sounded like a stretch, he's having a bit of a Plunkett/Rich Gannon type career. I was unsure about Wilson, and viewed him as a guy to go after if we didnt take a QB in round 1 or 2. Liked Foles and Osweiler as potential early 2nds that could be had cheaper. 

 

2013: EJ Manuel: Reeked of future bustness much like Ponder. 

 

2014: Bortles, Manziel and Bridgewater. Bortles just screamed bust, I would've rolled the dice on Manziel, whoops, and I loved Bridgewater as a value considering he had a top 3 grade in the summer of '13, and as mentioned earlier, I love to bet on those guys. 

 

2015: I loved Winston and remain stunned. I didnt watch Mariota enough despite being on the west coast, and so was unsure but thought he looked fine. In terms of Lynch, I had no feel at all, so I thought it was fine to take him there, whoops. 

 

2016: I didn't like either of them. Being a Cal Alum, I saw Goff as the best QB we'd had since Rodgers but that wasn't saying much, he seemed fine, just with a low ceiling, no chance to be better than say 15th-19th in the league and I don't like using top picks on that. Wentz was an early version of those "what school is that?" division whatever guys. Good athlete, great arm, no evidence because of the competition, and he wasn't as accurate as I wanted either if memory serves, so a straight pass. 

 

2017: I was a Watson and Mahomes guy that cooled on Watson because of the velocity testing (which is why I dont pay attention to that anymore), I didnt understand the Trubisky hype but had no strong feelings. 

 

2018: Huge fan of Baker and Darnold, thought Rosen was a steal, hated Allen. That's a tour de force! in all the wrong ways lol. Only saving grace is that I loved Jackson in the late first considering he had a top 5-10 valuation during the summer of '17. 

 

2019: Hated Jones, thought Haskins was an acceptable reach considering we didnt trade up. Loved Kyler. 

 

2020: Loved Tua, like Burrow, liked Herbert. 

 

 

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On 10/19/2020 at 10:13 AM, GOATFrerotte said:

Trask from Florida maybe in the 2nd/3rd round, definitely would pass on Mond, Purdy, and Costello. 

 

You sure about Purdy? QB school seems to love him. His anticipation, he was making throws I remember John Friez and Frerotte would make to Henry Ellard all day back when he was the only weapon we had during those awful Norv years, or you can say Troy Aikman would make to Irvin all the time during Dallas' reign.  He has awesome footwork and always keeps his cleats in the ground when he throws so he's pretty accurate. I mean look at 4:30. That's a pass Haskins was skunking vs the Ravens a couple weeks ago. And16:50 remember when Haskins  missed McLaurin on that role out play I want to say vs Philly about 10 yards out over the middle WIDE OPEN.. Watch how Brock completes a much more difficult pass into AMAZING coverage 30 YARDS down the field!!!! And after seeing this vid yea I could go for him as well..

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Playaction2Sanders said:

 

You sure about Purdy? QB school seems to love him. His anticipation, he was making throws I remember John Friez and Frerotte would make to Henry Ellard all day back when he was the only weapon we had during those awful Norv years, or you can say Troy Aikman would make to Irvin all the time during Dallas' reign.  He has awesome footwork and always keeps his cleats in the ground when he throws so he's pretty accurate. I mean look at 4:30. That's a pass Haskins was skunking vs the Ravens a couple weeks ago. And16:50 remember when Haskins  missed McLaurin on that role out play I want to say vs Philly about 10 yards out over the middle WIDE OPEN.. Watch how Brock completes a much more difficult pass into AMAZING coverage 30 YARDS down the field!!!! And after seeing this vid yea I could go for him as well..

 

 

 

I've seen Purdy play enough I wouldn't waste a 3rd or 4th pick on him with all the other needs we have. Maybe if he's there in the 6th. He's not bad but nothing special. Colt McCoy was a better college qb.

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You are take on Christian Ponder is interesting.  I thought he was a good college QB (though I am not a FSU fan).  I thought his first season as a starter in college may have been his best, he kind of plateau'ed so it could be he was just as good as a junior and senior, but because I had slightly higher expectations he didn't seem as good.  But i remember him as a sophomore and thinking FSU finally has a solid QB after Chris Rix, Wyatt Sexton, and Drew Weatherford.  Not that any of those three were truly horrible, but none of them were good.

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16 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Perhaps I should be clear. I do believe in positional BPA in that I don’t believe in reaching for need. However if our scouting has a couple or even a few player evenly ranked, I would hope the priority at first would be OL. I’ve always been a believer in building from the trenches out. Creating a competent offense may offset much of the deficiencies we have in the backend of our defense. Beefing up at LB won’t make our offense better. 

The hit rate w/OL early is also higher than most other positions, although in fairness it's probably simply because the lines demand a ton of players compared to other positions in terms of starters, depth, and swing options. So I'm not sure if the hit rate is more a byproduct of need much like crappy teams should have a higher hit rate in drafts than good teams because they have the roster space and good teams are usually tighter (although there's no evidence to suggest they do any better in terms of landing roster and starter talent). Anyway, I think it should be pretty simple if for no other reason than that we're terrible and we need everything but DL help.

 

In round 1 just use your pick(s) on a QB, OL, DB or WR, preferrably QB or trade down for me.

For rounds 2-4: Based on the talent profile in the draft I'd prioritize OL, and WR and TE (which I've been poo pooing but if we don't sign or trade for one, we should draft one)

In rounds 5-7 you draft guys that can play ST's and are the best available guy on your board that isn't a long snapper, kicker or a punter. 

 

I'll add a similar caveat, you should have a tiered board w/guys at every position, but there are already lessons in terms of efficacy and value in terms of cap dollars and hit rate positionally: In round 1 it's all about QB's, DL's, OL's, WR's and DB's

OL's seem to hit at a really high rate compared to other positions through the 4th round.

Rounds 4-7 should involve players that can contribute on ST's if at all possible because teams tend to cut draftees if they can't play ST's while they're learning their position. 

 

That's kind of how it works. Just bringing over my knowledge from Dynasty and Devy, the playmaking positions look good for the most part, if you letter graded it:

QB's: A or A-

RB's: C or D

WR's: A or A+

TE's: B or A-

 

This is why I think a trade down does make sense if we can't move up for a QB or can't draft a QB at slot. The top 15-20 look likely to house a pile of OT's of WR prospects, two of our biggest needs. QB is my only interest, period, but if we're not in range, and can't move up, the only sane move is moving down. 

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7 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

Kyle Smith should be elevated to GM

No he should not. They should hire an outside executive from a winning team to be their GM. Kyle has done virtually nothing in the time he's been with the organization.

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27 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

No he should not. They should hire an outside executive from a winning team to be their GM. Kyle has done virtually nothing in the time he's been with the organization.

 

 

What? Look at the last 3 drafts.  He's likely already going to be targeted for a GM position.  If we don't lock him up, he goes elsewhere and blows up.  I bet money on it.  

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53 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

What? Look at the last 3 drafts.  He's likely already going to be targeted for a GM position.  If we don't lock him up, he goes elsewhere and blows up.  I bet money on it.  

 

It's amazing what happens when we do exactly what people have been scream for for years to do...and how everyone loses their minds.

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@The Consigliere, I remember guys like Matt Ryan and Stafford being considered reaches at the time of their drafts too.  But their FOs banged the table for them and they panned out, and they are the guys who are cited for the rule that QB is a yes or no proposition in the draft, not a proposition of reach vs value.

 

Stafford is the other side of the coin to Darnold.  Similar prospects in a lot of ways.  Similar style, very similar strengths and weaknesses.  Depressingly different career outcomes.  Got drafted by similarly bad organizations, but the Lions had a much better staff at the time, and they had Calvin Johnson and quickly put some weapons on the field so that Stafford was able to find some individual success and solidify his job with the team long term.  Darnold's career is what happens when you give a prospect like that zero support and zero chance to properly develop.  It happens a lot.  Bad franchises draft good prospects and waste them almost every year.  We're arguably the most egregious example of this over the last ten years, which is why we I don't want to see this team draft Trevor Lawrence.

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7 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

  We're arguably the most egregious example of this over the last ten years, which is why we I don't want to see this team draft Trevor Lawrence.


You cannot be a defeatist and be involved in football. You’ll never come up from under the water. 
 

Even good teams have their share of struggles. When you constantly mire yourself in self pity or believe there is nothing you can do to better yourself/the franchise you set the tone for the franchise’s future failures by unknowingly cultivating a losing culture.

 

You aren’t in personnel for this team, so it doesn’t matter much if you are defeatist or not. 
 

But I hope the guys in our front office, for all their short comings, don’t think like you do.

Edited by KDawg
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Drafting a couple of LBs within our first 5 picks wouldn’t be the worst idea. That DL is going to waste. Patch in a FS from the generally inexpensive free agent market at the position and go from there. Focus the other higher draft picks on the **** show that is our offense.

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19 minutes ago, KDawg said:


You cannot be a defeatist and be involved in football. You’ll never come up from under the water. 
 

Even good teams have their share of struggles. When you constantly mire yourself in self pity or believe there is nothing you can do to better yourself/the franchise you set the tone for the franchise’s future failures by unknowingly cultivating a losing culture.

 

You aren’t in personnel for this team, so it doesn’t matter much if you are defeatist or not. 
 

But I hope the guys in our front office, for all their short comings, don’t think like you do.

 

The team has to do what they have to do.  Which is why I'm hoping they don't get their hands on Lawrence.  I recognize I have zero control over how the team operates.  I don't have any faith in the competence of the organization, or their ability to turn things around with the current people in place, from ownership to front office to coaching staff.  I'm a football fan as much as a WFT fan and don't want to see this God awful franchise ruin a brilliant prospect like Lawrence.  If we get the #1 pick, someone needs to convince him to go back to Clemson because this team is a quarterback graveyard.

 

I'm not buying in to what this current version of the franchise is selling.  I know that's the reason why people on here have been getting so pissy with me.  I feel the same way I did after Shanahan got here and started out by making mistakes left and right and playing dumb, counterproductive power games.  And even that was a better coaching staff and more stable front office than this one.  I went against my instincts that time, talked myself into the rebuild after the RGIII pick, and all that ended up doing was buying an extra year before things went back to ****.  I'm not buying in on this team until the staff and FO actually prove their competence first.

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21 hours ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:

I worry big time about another OSU QB.  They just don’t translate well in the NFL.   Basically any other position they seem to do well but not that one. 

 

This isn't analysis. 99.5% of QB's don't translate well to the NFL. Any given year you get about 0-2 starter caliber QB's out of all the prospects in the entirety of hundreds of college football organizations. There is no "that school just can't produce QB's". If you want to argue that some schools have better hit rates than others, I'd agree, probably based upon whom they recruit and land and then what style of offense they run and how well they teach to a much smaller degree, that's fine, but arguing that some schools are bad at it when nearly all schools produce 0 NFL QB's a decade, and the best might hit on 1 or 2 in a decade, you can see why this is kinda silly. 

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I obviously have no idea how this is all going to pan out but I am excited to watch Fields play this Saturday. I'm not going to let Haskins cloud my judgement based on the fact that they attended the same program and at this point i believe we are a strong contender to get him.

 

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/film-study/2020/02/112237/film-study-digging-into-justin-fields-development-throughout-the-2019-season

 

I like his mobility but like the good mobile QB's I like that he goes through his reads before deciding to run. I think you can see the progression last year from wanting to escape to standing in the pocket and delivering the passes and recognizing the coverages and blitzes. Hopefully this weird season shows more progress and he has good games against ranked competition.

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21 hours ago, philibusters said:

I definitely agree with the idea that Trask is maybe not as good as his stats, but I have issues with putting Felipe Franks ahead of him in terms of SEC QB's.   I have not watch Franks this year, but watched him in previous seasons and he is not as good as Trask in my opinion.

 

Watched two games of Franks so far. Franks isn't even on the radar, like a 7th round dude. I'd take Trask any day. 

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3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The team has to do what they have to do.  Which is why I'm hoping they don't get their hands on Lawrence.  I recognize I have zero control over how the team operates.  I don't have any faith in the competence of the organization, or their ability to turn things around with the current people in place, from ownership to front office to coaching staff.  I'm a football fan as much as a WFT fan and don't want to see this God awful franchise ruin a brilliant prospect like Lawrence.  If we get the #1 pick, someone needs to convince him to go back to Clemson because this team is a quarterback graveyard.

 

I'm not buying in to what this current version of the franchise is selling.  I know that's the reason why people on here have been getting so pissy with me.  I feel the same way I did after Shanahan got here and started out by making mistakes left and right and playing dumb, counterproductive power games.  And even that was a better coaching staff and more stable front office than this one.  I went against my instincts that time, talked myself into the rebuild after the RGIII pick, and all that ended up doing was buying an extra year before things went back to ****.  I'm not buying in on this team until the staff and FO actually prove their competence first.

I don't really disagree w/your indictment of the organization at all. I hold the organization in contempt as well w/only rare exceptions. My only quibbles would be: #1 we still have to take the actions most likely to generate positive results and #2 our history with Quarterbacks is superficially bad, not really in actuality bad. If you look at what we've done in terms of ruining young QB's since Gibbs I ended it's really nondescript.

 

What QB's have we drafted that went on to do stuff elsewhere? I can't think of any other than Cousins. RGIII? I do think we ruined him, playing him when the coach should've known to just take him out for his own good, but Mike is clearly a word I cant write, so that happened, but he's also at fault for his career going sideways, beyond that you have Jason Campbell, and Patrick Ramsey, both of which did zilch elsewhere, I thought Ramsey got a raw deal with the stupid boonell trade, but I also think he showed that he wasn't anything of note with his non-descript career, Shuler was always gonna bust, Frerotte actually did a lot more w/his career than expected. Not sure if there are more, sure Rosenfels, Hamdan, other day 3 types, but none of those were ever likely to do anything. I don't really think we ever David Carr'd a guy other than RGIII, but in that situation, he recovered from the injury but never developed into anything more than a gimmick guy. 

 

I loathe the organization at this point, but I look at those QB's as guys who never were gonna make it anyway. Shuler, Ramsey, Campbell, RGIII, and now Haskins? They don't feel like David Carr's, where they are might've beens if they'd landed in the right place, they just feel more like straight busts to me. The only guy that's slightly different is RGIII just because the profile was ridiculous, and injury was catastrophic, but he also had a lot of issues anyway, so not sure there.

 

I don't see an Andrew Luck where we drafted a guy and flat out ruined what was a chance for a great career or a Carr where it's a might've been. Am I missing anyone? 

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2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

This isn't analysis. 99.5% of QB's don't translate well to the NFL. Any given year you get about 0-2 starter caliber QB's out of all the prospects in the entirety of hundreds of college football organizations. There is no "that school just can't produce QB's". If you want to argue that some schools have better hit rates than others, I'd agree, probably based upon whom they recruit and land and then what style of offense they run and how well they teach to a much smaller degree, that's fine, but arguing that some schools are bad at it when nearly all schools produce 0 NFL QB's a decade, and the best might hit on 1 or 2 in a decade, you can see why this is kinda silly. 


There is a key difference though between OSU and others.  OSU out recruits about 98% of the nation.  You are speaking as though it’s a even playing field.  OSU surrounds its QBs with superior talent so even their poor QBs looked good.  Can you honestly say any of the QBs there have made their teams better? No you can’t.  Their teammates did.  Same at Bama up until Tua honestly (Many Bama QBs had incredible win records but that was because of the dominate teams.).  LSU QBs weren’t very good until Burrow.  Heck the year they went undefeated and loss the title Jefferson was their QB.  That dude was terrible. Their defense was off the charts though
 

I’m not saying we shouldn’t take fields if there but we should think hard as we could be walk right into another Haskins situation.   For all the praise Haskins got people forget in tough situations he had incredible offensive weapons to bail him out.  Also one needs to remember they have very little competition in their conference.   It’s honestly surprising they lose any games each year in conference with a team that stacked. 

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