2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Number 44]

I'm not in favor of drafting a Monds/Mills/Trask type QB in round 2.  That would be a big mistake, IMO.  There will be good probable starters at T, LB, TE, DB, and WR available there.  Why take a guy that fits right in with the solid back-up QBs we already have?  If we draft a QB, it should either be in round 1, if one of the top guys becomes available to us, or on day 3.  We can do a lot on day 2 to improve the team.  A project tier 2 or 3 QB isn't it, IMO.

[Warhead36]

12 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

I'm not in favor of drafting a Monds/Mills/Trask type QB in round 2.  That would be a big mistake, IMO.  There will be good probable starters at T, LB, TE, DB, and WR available there.  Why take a guy that fits right in with the solid back-up QBs we already have?  If we draft a QB, it should either be in round 1, if one of the top guys becomes available to us, or on day 3.  We can do a lot on day 2 to improve the team.  A project tier 2 or 3 QB isn't it, IMO.

Agreed. The track record for QBs taken after round 1 is abysmally low. I'd rather just use those picks to fill up on other roster spots. And who knows maybe we strike gold and get another McLaurin/Gibson type player.

[86 Snyder]

11 hours ago, KDawg said:

Context matters. No one is advocating him over a top 3 tackle for instance. It will always depend on the board.

 

I understand your position is more nuanced than just wanting a RB, but I'm saying there's no scenario where RB in the 1st or 2nd is the best move for us.

 

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I took the argument outside the position need debate since you challenged whether they were even that good.

 

I was one of Antonio Gibson's biggest fans before we took him in the last draft and remain a fan.  I don't think Mckissic is a "very good" back.  He is a good pass catcher.  The running game didn't seem hot when Gibson was out.    Some good teams have two really good backs.  But yeah if I thought McKissic was a very good RB and he was as good as Harris or Etienne or close enough, It would be yawn to me too. 

 

Not sure how taking Harris would be a good move for Miami in the first but not for us if Harris isn't a featured back-stud type like you suggest.    If Harris is who you suggest he is -- he should go in the third round.  Maybe he does?  Will see.    Or if Miami takes him there and he isn't anything great, then that is a lousy pick in the first.  Will see. 

 

I do think its a waste of time argument because I seriously doubt we take him.  So aside from revisting the point later next season if Harris isn't really a special back but benefitted from as you say being surrounded by Alabama "greatness" that just rubbed off him when he played.  Will see.  You never know.   It will be interesting to watch.  To me eyes the dude is a beast.    But I don't guess every player right by a long stretch.  If so, Harris would be a big whiff from me because I am pretty convinced about him. 

 

 

Just to clarify, I called JD a very good scatback, which was my shorthand for saying he's very in good in his current role of catching passes and taking a handful of carries per game to keep the defense honest.  No more, no less.  

 

Harris is an acceptable pick for for Pittsburgh and Miami in my eyes because both of those teams lack a reliable RB threat amd it hampered them tremendously last year.  No,  I don't think he's a true stud prospect, but he's solid enough that the upgrade of adding Harris is a large enough delta to what they have now that I can see why they'd go for it.  If either team already had a Gibson level talent I'd cross them off the list for sure.  Maybe Gibson proves to be injury prone, that's a concern worth thinking about, but he has all the talent you need to keep a running game going.  For now I'll call the foot injury bad luck and not evidence of getting worn down.  If it happens again next year, then you really gotta wonder if he needs to be a 1B type of back.  For now though I think you bank on the talent and keep him 1A and look to upgrade Barber with a vet free agent, particularly given all the holes we have to fill.

 

There's just no scenario where I'm okay taking RB on day 1 or 2.  I know you guys have plenty of players you want before Harris is on the table, but we gotta do better than settling for him.  Move around the board.  Up, down, out, whatever you gotta do.  Keep trying to add picks or elite value to this roster however you can and never forget that we don't have a longterm QB solution yet.  Adding picks should come before any luxury expense like a RB at 19 because at some point you gotta push the chips in on a QB and you need to ammo to do it.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by 86 Snyder

[mistertim]

I have a hard time seeing Devonta Smith falling to 19, but he might be hard to pass up if he did. That being said, I know that people have basically shrugged it off (as has he), but good lord is he a beanpole...so I could see some teams having durability concerns.

 

Personally, I'd be worried every single time he took a big hit that he was broken in half. Could he seriously not put on 10-15 lbs of muscle in the offseason? I'd think that NFL teams would probably ask him to put on at least a little muscle. But would that impact his game a lot?

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

Harris is an acceptable pick for for Pittsburgh and Miami in my eyes because both of those teams lack a reliable RB threat amd it hampered them tremendously last year.  No,  I don't think he's a true stud prospect, but he's solid enough that the upgrade of adding Harris is a large enough delta to what they have now that I can see why they'd go for it.  If either team already had a Gibson level talent I'd cross them off the list for sure.  Maybe Gibson proves to be injury prone, that's a concern worth thinking about, but he has all the talent you need to keep a running game going.  For now I'll call the foot injury bad luck and not evidence of getting worn down.  If it happens again next year, then you really gotta wonder if he needs to be a 1B type of back.  For now though I think you bank on the talent and keep him 1A and look to upgrade Barber with a vet free agent, particularly given all the holes we have to fill.

 

There's just no scenario where I'm okay taking RB on day 1 or 2.  I know you guys have plenty of players you want before Harris is on the table, but we gotta do better than settling for him.  Move around the board.  Up, down, out, whatever you gotta do.  Keep trying to add picks or elite value to this roster however you can and never forget that we don't have a longterm QB solution yet.  Adding picks should come before any luxury expense like a RB at 19 because at some point you gotta push the chips in on a QB and you need to ammo to do it.

 

 

 

 

 

The RB position is inherent as for injuries.  It's the type of spot players get banged up.  I'd put money that Antonio Gibson misses some games next season -- and that isn't because he's injury prone but because of the nature of the spot.  Purely as RBs, I think McKissic and Barber are just guys.  I like McKissic though as a pass catcher.  And when you have just guys behind your lead back, good luck being a threat in the post season if your lead back is banged up with little behind them unless you got a very good to elite QB.  

 

If I recall the hit rate for 2nd rounders is about 50% and third round is 33%.  Forgetting RB, I am not reaching for a player based on position though on the 2nd day.  So I am personally playing to the board not position especially the further I go down the draft.   If a RB is top on my board, I'd take him within reason depending how far the next guy I have is rated. 

 

I defintely want a RB in this draft.  If I had to guess the sweet spot for it, 3rd-4th round:  Carter, Herbert, Sermon, Gainwell, Hubbard range

Edited April 18, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Going Commando]

McKissic is a jag who can't even beat mediocre linebackers to the edge.  If he factors into the thinking for passing over a BPA RB then that is horrible drafting.

 

The reason to draft Najee or Etienne in the first is because they are BPA, even at 19, but especially after a trade down or in scenarios where Darrisaw and the good receivers and corners have been taken. They are top ten players in the class, and you either believe in BPA or you don't.  And thinking that Antonio Gibson is better than them--the best back in Alabama history and the best back in ACC history--is such a blind homer take that it can't be taken seriously.  I understand Gibson's game well.  I was the first person in last year's thread to mention him and discuss him and identify him as a good prospect.  I'm a fan of his. He is in a favorable scheme and situation here to succeed and should be successful if he stays healthy.  He is absolutely not as good a prospect or talent as Najee or Etienne.  He was a five AV player last season after performing above expectations, and those guys can be 13+ AV players.  And we absolutely do need more dynamism and depth and talent in our run game.  This is supposed to be a run heavy system and a 17+ game season and our only good back is a part time player at the position.

[KDawg]

I chalk the “No RB in the first” up to traditional “you don’t take a RB until the 20s” thinking.

[86 Snyder]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The RB position is inherent as for injuries.  It's the type of spot players get banged up.  I'd put money that Antonio Gibson misses some games next season -- and that isn't because he's injury prone but because of the nature of the spot.  Purely as RBs, I think McKissic and Barber are just guys.  I like McKissic though as a pass catcher.  And when you have just guys behind your lead back, good luck being a threat in the post season if your lead back is banged up with little behind them unless you got a very good to elite QB.  

 

If I recall the hit rate for 2nd rounders is about 50% and third round is 33%.  Forgetting RB, I am not reaching for a player based on position though on the 2nd day.  So I am personally playing to the board not position especially the further I go down the draft.   If a RB is top on my board, I'd take him within reason depending how far the next guy I have is rated. 

 

I defintely want a RB in this draft.  If I had to guess the sweet spot for it, 3rd-4th round:  Carter, Herbert, Sermon, Gainwell, Hubbard range

 

Of that group, Sermon is the only one I'd be remotely interested in and even he would be a pass before the 4th.  There's just too many solid vets sitting on the street.  Not minimizing the position but the delta between the guys you mentioned and any of the available vets just isn't big enough to get me excited.

 

Bears repeating but this really isn't a good draft for lead running backs.  You might find a guy or two late that can be a decent role player but if you want a lead back, Harris is the only option and he's barely average when compared to lead backs around the league.  He's already 23 and was competing against much younger, smaller players while surrounded by the best talent in the country.  You can't divorce his performance last year from those facts.  When he's matched up against other grown ass men next year it's going to be much tougher sledding.

[clskinsfan]

I see people are finally climbing aboard the Micah Parsons train. Welcome aboard. Where have ya'll been?

[86 Snyder]

14 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

McKissic is a jag who can't even beat mediocre linebackers to the edge.  If he factors into the thinking for passing over a BPA RB then that is horrible drafting.

 

The reason to draft Najee or Etienne in the first is because they are BPA, even at 19, but especially after a trade down or in scenarios where Darrisaw and the good receivers and corners have been taken. They are top ten players in the class, and you either believe in BPA or you don't.  And thinking that Antonio Gibson is better than them--the best back in Alabama history and the best back in ACC history--is such a blind homer take that it can't be taken seriously.  I understand Gibson's game well.  I was the first person in last year's thread to mention him and discuss him and identify him as a good prospect.  I'm a fan of his. He is in a favorable scheme and situation here to succeed and should be successful if he stays healthy.  He is absolutely not as good a prospect or talent as Najee or Etienne.  He was a five AV player last season after performing above expectations, and those guys can be 13+ AV players.  And we absolutely do need more dynamism and depth and talent in our run game.  This is supposed to be a run heavy system and a 17+ game season and our only good back is a part time player at the position.

 

Calling them top 10 is hilarious.  They only standout against the rest of the class of backs because this class is awful.  You sprinkle them into last years class and they'd be lucky to go late 2nd/early 3rd.  He'll its why Etienne went back to school in the 1st place.

 

Gibson has *better* talent than Etienne.  The only question was whether he could transition to full time RB and he wildly exceeded expectations doing so.  I won't bother comparing him to Harris because they're so different but if Gibson could magically re-enter the draft knowing everything we know now I'm taking him over Etienne in a heartbeat and over old man Harris too.  Same with Akers, Dobbins, Taylor, and Swift too.  

 

ETA I just noticed you called Najee the best back in Alabama history and that should be flagrant enough to warrant a couple days off.  I guess if we are just inventing accolades whenever it suits our purposes I'll just end the discussion now.

Edited April 18, 2021 by 86 Snyder

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Number 44 said:

I'm not in favor of drafting a Monds/Mills/Trask type QB in round 2.  That would be a big mistake, IMO.  There will be good probable starters at T, LB, TE, DB, and WR available there.  Why take a guy that fits right in with the solid back-up QBs we already have?  If we draft a QB, it should either be in round 1, if one of the top guys becomes available to us, or on day 3.  We can do a lot on day 2 to improve the team.  A project tier 2 or 3 QB isn't it, IMO.

Depends what you think of the prospect. There is some history of successful 2nd round QB's in this league. Favre, Brees, Cunningham, Derek Carr, Boomer Esiason and Andy Dalton were all 2nd rounders. 

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

Calling them top 10 is hilarious.  They only standout against the rest of the class of backs because this class is awful.  You sprinkle them into last years class and they'd be lucky to go late 2nd/early 3rd.  He'll its why Etienne went back to school in the 1st place.

 

Gibson has *better* talent than Etienne.  The only question was whether he could transition to full time RB and he wildly exceeded expectations doing so.  I won't bother comparing him to Harris because they're so different but if Gibson could magically re-enter the draft knowing everything we know now I'm taking him over Etienne in a heartbeat and over old man Harris too.  Same with Akers, Dobbins, Taylor, and Swift too.  

 

ETA I just noticed you called Najee the best back in Alabama history and that should be flagrant enough to warrant a couple days off.  I guess if we are just inventing accolades whenever it suits our purposes I'll just end the discussion now.

 

Getting the sense you haven't actually watched either of them play a game before.  I'm not the only one who said Najee is the best back in Alabama history, that's the take of the people who actually follow and cover their program, and he's the kid who rewrote their record books.

 

If Etienne had come out last year, he would have been RB1.  That's where he was generally ranked before he announced his return to Clemson.  The weakness of the depth of this RB class has nothing to do with them, other than it makes the case even more strongly for not passing them over as BPA choices early to hunt for better value late in the class.

 

Etienne is tenth on Lance Zierlein's big board and Najee is sixteenth: https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/

Or do you think he doesn't know what he's talking about either?

[86 Snyder]

1 minute ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Getting the sense you haven't actually watched either of them play a game before.  I'm not the only one who said Najee is the best back in Alabama history, that's the take of the people who actually follow and cover their program, and he's the kid who rewrote their record books.

 

If Etienne had come out last year, he would have been RB1.  That's where he was generally ranked before he announced his return to Clemson.  The weakness of the depth of this RB class has nothing to do with them, other than it makes the case even more strongly for not passing them over as BPA choices early to hunt for better value late in the class.

 

Etienne is tenth on Lance Zierlein's big board and Najee is sixteenth: https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/

Or do you think he doesn't know what he's talking about either?

 

I think anyone ranking them that high on their big board doesn't know what they are talking about.  And if Etienne was RB1 last year, he would have come out.  

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

 

Of that group, Sermon is the only one I'd be remotely interested in and even he would be a pass before the 4th.  There's just too many solid vets sitting on the street.  Not minimizing the position but the delta between the guys you mentioned and any of the available vets just isn't big enough to get me excited.

 

Bears repeating but this really isn't a good draft for lead running backs.  You might find a guy or two late that can be a decent role player but if you want a lead back, Harris is the only option and he's barely average when compared to lead backs around the league.  He's already 23 and was competing against much younger, smaller players while surrounded by the best talent in the country.  You can't divorce his performance last year from those facts.  When he's matched up against other grown ass men next year it's going to be much tougher sledding.

 

OK, I don't feel like arguing anymore about Najee Harris so I'll leave it after this post.  

 

I am compiling stats on a lot of these top prospects in various positions and I was surprised how many were 23 plus years old or close to it.  Najee Harris is not that much in a unique orbit on that front.   Terry turned 24 early on in the same season we took him in the draft.  I'd rather have younger players but its not something I get too hung up on unless there is a red flag attached to it.

 

i get the surrounded with talent from the context of Mac Jones but I can't fault the playmakers for making plays that they are surrounded by other playmakers, too. When Harris broke tackles, busted for 26 TDs, caught the ball, etc -- I wasn't thinking yep but Devonta Smith is on the same team so that makes it way easier to make that catch and leap over the defender, etc.  When Devonta Smith made one of his insane catches or big YAC plays, i wasn't thinking of course he did since Najee is his teammate. 

 

I've seen almost everyone of his games, including a few live.  IMO the dude is special.  He's 230 pounds, yet he has loose hips and is arguably as quick and elusive as 205 pound RB.  His size and speed and agility i agree is a handful for college competition.   But that combination is also unique for the NFL. 

 

Will see.   If i end up wrong about Najee I'll admit it.    But for now to me he's the closest thing I've seen entering the NFL to Derrick Henry in years.  Now off my soapbox.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

BTW I was a big fan of Le'Veon Bell at Michigan St and I banged the table for him in the 2013 draft thread and I'm pretty sure no one else did so or even listened that year.  Najee is better than Le'Veon was in college.  He's a clone of the prime version of Le'Veon in Pittsburgh, and he's not done getting better either.

[86 Snyder]

9 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

 

This EXACTLY.  Add in that we aren't even talking about a Barkley type prospect and the prosecution rests.

 

Warren Sharp really needs to be running a front office btw.  He's light years ahead of half the league.

[Jericho]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Depends what you think of the prospect. There is some history of successful 2nd round QB's in this league. Favre, Brees, Cunningham, Derek Carr, Boomer Esiason and Andy Dalton were all 2nd rounders. 

 

 

 

But you're spanning over 35 years and you found six "good" QBs (while Dalton isn't a bad QB by any means, not sure how many people would be thrilled with a Dalton level QB). Which is part of the point. It's actually kind of rare. Also, pretty much all of the players you listed barely slipped into the second round. Hell, Drew Brees was taken at pick 32, which is now a first round pick. Favre was taken at 33, Dalton at 35, Carr at 36, Cunningham at 37, and Esiason at 38. I get that Washington picks at 51 and It may not seem that far away to get a QB, except based on draft value, the difference between 51 and the top of the second round is the difference between 51 and the top of the fourth round.

 

There's also the practical question of how likely it is in 2021 to find a good QB the second round. The fact Favre went 33rd overall 30 years ago probably isn't super relevant to the NFL of today. The game has changed, scouting has changed, the importance of the QB has changed. If we just look in the last 20 years, the best successes from the second are Dalton and Derek Carr. And frankly that's pretty underwhelming. These are the high water marks. There's a pretty good chance you end up with the next Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White, Jimmy Clausen, Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg, DeShone Kizer, or Brock Osweiler. So maybe there's a 15 % chance you end up with Andy Dalton.  For many people, it's not worth the risk. In part because getting another Andy Dalton really isn't the outcome desired and in part because there's a far, far greater chance you end up with nothing of note. Or at least nothing better than Kyle Allen.

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

I think anyone ranking them that high on their big board doesn't know what they are talking about.  And if Etienne was RB1 last year, he would have come out.  

 

Or Etienne went back to finish his degree and try and win another championship.  He is a different kind of personality who doesn't care about NFL stardom or money.  You can't assume that you understand these guys, particularly if you haven't followed them closely.  And I know you haven't.  It also doesn't change the fact that most places had him as RB1 before he announced his return to Clemson.

[86 Snyder]

@Skinsinparadise the age itself isn't so much the issue for me, it's his age and development as.compared to his competition that's little worrisome.  And it's not just Devonta, etc it's the fact that Bama has blue chip talent everywhere.  Everything is easier for every player there.  Not a knock on Najee but it's something you have to wonder about, especially at RB.  He's got a lot of the deck stacked in his favor.

 

I'll drop it though.  I grant you he's got a chance to be special, much more so than Etienne anyway.

[86 Snyder]

3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Or Etienne went back to finish his degree and try and win another championship.  He is a different kind of personality who doesn't care about NFL stardom or money.  You can't assume that you understand these guys, particularly if you haven't followed them closely.  And I know you haven't.  It also doesn't change the fact that most places had him as RB1 before he announced his return to Clemson.

 

I play very high stakes dynasty leagues so am indeed acutely aware of how these guys profile as prospects.  Spend tons of time on it.  Etienne was largely viewed between RB3-RB6 last year, usually more towards the bottom.  Not a single person was calling him RB1 in those circles.

[The Rook]

22 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Unless a guy has a major question mark you're not going to see a top QB hit FA. Also, teams aren't going to let a top 5 franchise QB walk without having another guy or backup plan to draft one high. 

 

The general idea that I was responding to was if we just build a great team a top flight FA QB will just sort of fall out of the sky, and is nonsensical.

 

I'm not sure I would use the word "nonsensical".  It DID happen for Tampa.

 

With the craziness of the NFL, maybe a question to keep in the back of our mind is: "Would we want a 39 year old Aaron Rodgers in 2023?

Or maybe 2022?  Jordan Love is burning a hole in somebody's pocket while he is riding the bench in Green Bay.

 

I wouldn't use this possibility to not take a QB I really loved in this draft, but Coach did talk about getting the best team for the QB when they get him.

 

Heck, Wilson and Watson may be play again next year - no one really knows.

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

 

 

[JaxJoe]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I like Williams' teammate more -- Anthony Schwartz.  Schwartz isn't a complete receiver, he's raw, not a dude that runs a whole variety of routes but the dude's speed is unreal and he can take it to the house.  

So glad you brought up Schwartz. Definitely needs to learn his routes. In fact, even for college-level, is a poor to moderate route runner but can and should be so much more than the track star he is be ause he shows willingness out there. He needs help in running after the catch, too. But what intrigues me about Schwartz is the fact we now have Fitzmagic who will send a throw to Schwartz who you know will have a couple of steps on the defender. If Alex Smith was still our QB... no way do I ever consider Schwartz. But drafting him in the fourth seems more plausible. 

[Skinsinparadise]