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2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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3 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Allen was the starter for a team that went to the playoffs last year ( where they lost that close game to Houston).  He was never a bust (compared to Rosen or Haskins)

They made the playoffs in 2019 despite Allen. They were very much go there like we did this year.  So, yes Allen was competing for the bust of Top-10 QB.  BTW, neither Rosen was not in the top 10 and neither was Haskins (and he was 2019 anyway). He was competing for that with Sam Darnold.  In fact, Darnold was looking like he might soon breakout. 

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57 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I'm going to drive the Etienne bandwagon here too.  Very good fit in our offense.  Faster than Najee, has the turbo button acceleration and the elite flexibility and agility in his lower half that makes Kamara special.  He gets on you for 15, 20 yards before you can even react.  I slightly prefer Najee to him because I like his instincts and his vision and creativity better, but Etienne is one of the ten best players in the class too: Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Pitts, Chase, Smith, Harris, Etienne, Sewell, Slater.

 

 

I like both but much prefer Harris, especially when comparing to our current RB's.

I don't have him top. Isn't it amazing though that with Parsons issues there is not a defender in most top 10 players...not that one won't be drafted top 10 but there is a possibility that occurs.

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3 hours ago, KDawg said:

Gibson is not a blue chip back. He MAY be a blue chip playmaker. But as a back he is not. He has the tools you want and I loved the pick and still love the player. But again... context matters. Gibson could be a blue chip playmaker... which he can do from a two back set, the slot, or at times a true RB. Najee is a blue chip running back. There’s room for both and it takes tread off of Gibson’s tires.

Completely agree.  Gibson was primarily a receiver in college and from what I can recall was a hell of a return man as well.  In fact I think the biggest question coming into last season was how he would respond to being used primarily as a  running back.  He's built to be a swiss army knife and adding Najee wouldn't hurt our ability to use him - it would open up the playbook and allow us to move him around more pre-snap to create favorable matchups.  There is plenty of room for both Gibson and Najee to excel in this offense.  It's the J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber's of the world who will be scrambling for touches - and while I like JD that would be a good thing.  

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1 hour ago, Darth Tater said:

They made the playoffs in 2019 despite Allen. They were very much go there like we did this year.  So, yes Allen was competing for the bust of Top-10 QB.  BTW, neither Rosen was not in the top 10 and neither was Haskins (and he was 2019 anyway). He was competing for that with Sam Darnold.  In fact, Darnold was looking like he might soon breakout. 

 

Rosen was the #10 pick in his draft (Az gave up a 3rd and a 5th to move up 5 slots to do so).  They bailed after one year for Murray.  Josh Allen went #7.  There's not much of a difference in draft position there.

 

2019-2020 season for Allen (without Diggs):

59% (not good)

20 tds (passing)

9 ints

3100 yards (passing)

 

510 rushing yards

9 tds (rushing)

 

They didn't win despite Allen.  They were a defensive team that relied upon Allen's legs and playmaking ability.  They really had no weapons to speak of (which is why they went out and got Diggs).  Allen wasn't a bust whatsoever in his 2nd year.  His legs and athleticism showed that.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DWinzit said:

I like both but much prefer Harris, especially when comparing to our current RB's.

I don't have him top. Isn't it amazing though that with Parsons issues there is not a defender in most top 10 players...not that one won't be drafted top 10 but there is a possibility that occurs.

 

Parsons could have been the lone defensive player in the top ten, but his character concerns are too big, plus I'm not convinced his sophomore film is enough to get him on this list given the production and accomplishments of the other guys.  He wasn't as good in 2019 as Chase and Sewell were, who were easily the best players at their position in the sport.

 

It's not usually like this, but this group of offensive players is way better at the top than the defensive players.

 

EDIT:  Just to add some context, this is a historic group of offensive prospects at the top of the class.  So incredibly unusual to have two once in a blue moon receivers, the best TE prospect in forever, the best OT prospect in forever, and the best QB prospect in forever all coming up in the same class.  Not only that but the top two running backs are just the best RB in Alabama program history and maybe the best or second best offensive player in ACC history.

 

The balance will probably come back next season as guys like Stingley and Christian Harris and Thibedeaux become eligible, plus Ohio State is bound to have another edge rusher pushing for top five status sooner or later.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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I was somewhat early to the party with Koramoah but also late, I did a write up early during the college season and liking him but not loving him.  But its been @stevemcqueen1 going to town on him as being a great player.

 

I don't know what games I watched earlier but I wasn't blown away.  Now, I am a convert after going through two games.  I loved Jeremy Chinn last year in part because he was a ball of energy, had swiss arm knife elements to his game and just played with so much gusto.  Koramoah reminds me of Chinn.  He's a bit of a different flavor than Chinn.    The dude is so explosive, he'd add some serious speed to this defense. 

 

My pause is where do you play him aside from nickel, WLB?  But I am definitely in on him. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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I agree that Harris and Ettiene would add a significant element to our offense. They are clearly in the BPA possible options still on the board. I am prioritizing an OL (if near BPA) in the 2nd to compliment this pick. If Devonta Smith somehow falls, or Pitts, you have to have them in your BPA category also.

 

My current BPA is still one of the LBs. Rivera is the perfect no nonsense coach to keep Parsons in check and maximize his skills. I get that he has some issues but if Rivera sits down with him and signs off, you draft him. You put Parsons at MLB, our run defense and our control of the middle of the field gets a significant jump. Drafting Zaven Collins means having back to back Bednarik Defensive Player of the Year winners on our defense(with Chase). This is scary. You line him up SLB behind Young or Sweat, you have an edge that terrifies any offense and likely a lot better control of TEs in the pass game. If either of them are on the board, I summon the memory of GameDay threads on this board, LB is a big enough issue that we should be running to the podium. These guys are big athletic game wreckers that compliment our DL. You still draft another LB if BPA round 3 or after. That LB group was that bad. Spots like WR and RB at least have guys with potential to grow there so I am picking these 2 LBs above them. I am still going back to OL in round 2 as a priority if BPA.

 

If all of the above players have been drafted, which is possible, I'm going OL with 19, and looking for one of those other positions in round 2. We need better control of the LOS on offense, and our DLs dominance is somewhat wasted without athletic downhill LBs behind them.

Edited by IrepDC
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y accounting for the position and measuring the percentile instead of the WAR difference between outcome and expectation, we measure draft success in the same way teams might think about it. For instance, due to the high value of wide receivers, Calvin Ridley and Quenton Nelson are projected to have the same WAR above expectation after four years. Still, Ridley’s outcome falls “only” in the 80th percentile for wide receivers drafted at the end of the first round. This reflects that most people would consider Nelson as the better pick, as he became a perennial All-Pro player while Ridley is just a “good” wide receiver.

We can now look at the teams that got the best draft outcomes in terms of consistency. Below, we are ranking teams by the average percentile their draft picks landed in across the full distribution of outcomes.

teams_percentile_w_positions.png

The Indianapolis Colts replace the Chiefs at the top due to an extremely high number of picks that landed in the 75th percentile. Coming back to our example of the Washington Football Team, we note that they were a top-10 draft team over the last four years when we measure consistency instead of overweighting the failure that was the Haskins pick. Their recent draft success is a reason why they are a good quarterback away from becoming an outstanding team.

 

 

 

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I like Trevon Grimes, especially if Trask is on our board.  He went to Grimes so often when he was taking shots.  He trusts him to make the play in coverage.

 

I was watching Brevin Jordan again, reaffirmed that I really like him and think he is awesome value in the third. But also started watching their LT #60.  That kid is a bulldog with first round looking traits.  He is skinny for a LT and got absolutely big boyed by Marvin Wilson several times.  But his speed is fantastic and he's got long arms and he throws everything he has into his pass blocking reps.  So many snaps where he is basically giving up no more than two steps because he's jumped on the guy so well and he is fighting so hard.  Super comfortable mirroring speed on the edge and he stays latched on to those guys.  You are only going to be beating him with power and great hands.  Looks like he needs a lot of work as a run blocker and he definitely doesn't have an NFL body yet.  Might actually be a while before he gets that kind of strength and bulk.  But damn, the athleticism and the aggression and motor suggest this kid could be a first rounder.

 

Dangerous to look ahead like this, but next year's class is probably going to have at least four or five first round OTs in it.  It wouldn't be the end of the world if we miss out on the LT prospects this season, although we'd be playing with fire if we wait too long to strengthen that pipeline.  Especially if Scherff walks.

 

Might not be a bad idea to go all in for a QB this year, especially if we can structure the move around players and lesser picks and keep that first rounder for '22.

 

Lastly, wanted to return to Marvin Wilson.  His situation reminds me of how Derek Nnadi fell in his draft, but ended up being one of the better draft picks the Chiefs have made.  7 AV player in back to back seasons is not bad for a third round pick.  Marvin Wilson is more talented than him, and I think he could be a similar bargain in the third or fourth round.  Possible a two round discount on him.  It'd suck to break up our line, but if you can structure the trade up to get the QB we want around either Allen or Payne, then you could possibly make the jump up the draft board without losing the '22 first and then replenish our IDL talent with prospects like Shelvin, Wilson, or Twyman in the third or fourth round.

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13 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Lastly, wanted to return to Marvin Wilson.  His situation reminds me of how Derek Nnadi fell in his draft, but ended up being one of the better draft picks the Chiefs have made.  7 AV player in back to back seasons is not bad for a third round pick.  Marvin Wilson is more talented than him, and I think he could be a similar bargain in the third or fourth round.  Possible a two round discount on him.  It'd suck to break up our line, but if you can structure the trade up to get the QB we want around either Allen or Payne, then you could possibly make the jump up the draft board without losing the '22 first and then replenish our IDL talent with prospects like Shelvin, Wilson, or Twyman in the third or fourth round.

 

Wilson could be a great value for some team I agree. I also think Marlon Tuipulotu is flying under the radar a bit. 

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Could the draft provide help?

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said of Washington's situation: "Wide receiver is the deepest position in the draft. ... They've got to find someone."

Kiper said as many as 40 wide receivers could receive draftable grades. Because of the unusual season, and lack of great scouting opportunities, teams will disagree on which 40 warrant those grades. A wide receiver a team likes in the fourth round could fall to the sixth or seventh.

That draft depth also could prompt Washington to spend elsewhere in free agency, or it could allow the team to trade back from the No. 19 pick and still get a player who can help. Florida's Kadarius Toney likely will be available when Washington selects in the first round. He is not considered a deep burner, but he does have good speed and makes defenders miss because of elite quickness.

"He's a playmaker," Kiper said.

 

Kiper listed others in the top two rounds who could make an impact, including Elijah Moore (Ole Miss) and TuTu Atwell (Louisville). They are smaller but with excellent speed, particularly Atwell. There's also Western Michigan's D'Wayne Eskridge. He's another small-but-fast target who can align in the slot, but also move outside.

"He's super explosive," said Jim Nagy, the Senior Bowl director as well as an ESPN college draft analyst. "He was playing at a whole different speed than everyone else, but was that just the [Mid-American Conference]? ... But the speed was real."

Nagy also pointed out UCLA's Demetric Felton, a running back in college who stood out in the slot at the Senior Bowl. His versatility is attractive and he could be a younger version of Samuel.

It's too early to know who will be available for Washington, but there will be options if it doesn't land someone in free agency.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington/post/_/id/41059/from-curtis-samuel-to-draft-washington-has-options-to-add-speed-at-wr

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2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

I was watching Brevin Jordan again, reaffirmed that I really like him and think he is awesome value in the third. But also started watching their LT #60.  That kid is a bulldog with first round looking traits.  He is skinny for a LT and got absolutely big boyed by Marvin Wilson several times.  But his speed is fantastic and he's got long arms and he throws everything he has into his pass blocking reps.  So many snaps where he is basically giving up no more than two steps because he's jumped on the guy so well and he is fighting so hard.  Super comfortable mirroring speed on the edge and he stays latched on to those guys.  You are only going to be beating him with power and great hands.  Looks like he needs a lot of work as a run blocker and he definitely doesn't have an NFL body yet.  Might actually be a while before he gets that kind of strength and bulk.  But damn, the athleticism and the aggression and motor suggest this kid could be a first rounder.

 

Zion Nelson. He really should have been a RS Freshman this past season but got thrown to the wolves as a true freshman in 2019 and started 13 games at LT while only weighing MAYBE 260. He's really put the work in over the last 2 years and is around 310-315 by my estimation from when I recently passed him on campus. Super nice kid, definitely easy to root for. Miami was his only FBS offer, he was an App State commit at one time IIRC. it doesn't hurt that he's been going against Rousseau, Phillips and Roche in practice over the last few years.

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29 minutes ago, Redskin21502 said:

Zion Nelson. He really should have been a RS Freshman this past season but got thrown to the wolves as a true freshman in 2019 and started 13 games at LT while only weighing MAYBE 260. He's really put the work in over the last 2 years and is around 310-315 by my estimation from when I recently passed him on campus. Super nice kid, definitely easy to root for. Miami was his only FBS offer, he was an App State commit at one time IIRC. it doesn't hurt that he's been going against Rousseau, Phillips and Roche in practice over the last few years.

 

Thanks for the background info.  Easy to root for those three star guys who have to claw their way onto a D1 roster and then they run with it.  He really jumps out at you on film among that OL because his competitiveness and effort are palpable and you can tell he loves playing the game.  Just a good body language player.  Looks like he's still very much learning the position and how to identify his landmarks and targets in the run game, and reading blitzes.  Gonna take time to build up his body for NFL strength, so he could probably use more time in school and possibly even sit his rookie year in the NFL as a redshirt year.  But he looks like he's got the right mix of physical and intangible traits to be a good NFL player down the road.

 

He's going to be fun to watch next year.  He's at the point in his football career where he's improving rapidly.

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Justin Fields seems to be falling in various mock drafts in a way that is reminiscent of how DeShaun Watson fell in 2017.  My question is, what's a package we could put together if he makes it to 9, 12, or 13?  Would you all rather trade the '22 first or one of our defensive linemen in addition to #19?  Would you all trade Daron Payne or Jonathan Adams to go up and get Fields?

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20 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Justin Fields seems to be falling in various mock drafts in a way that is reminiscent of how DeShaun Watson fell in 2017.  My question is, what's a package we could put together if he makes it to 9, 12, or 13?  Would you all rather trade the '22 first or one of our defensive linemen in addition to #19?  Would you all trade Daron Payne or Jonathan Adams to go up and get Fields?

I’d trade Jonathan Adams because I have no idea who that is.  Ha Ha!  
If I were to trade, I’d trade the 22 first rounder over a d-lineman.

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18 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Justin Fields seems to be falling in various mock drafts in a way that is reminiscent of how DeShaun Watson fell in 2017.  My question is, what's a package we could put together if he makes it to 9, 12, or 13?  Would you all rather trade the '22 first or one of our defensive linemen in addition to #19?  Would you all trade Daron Payne or Jonathan Adams to go up and get Fields?

That's actually not a bad comparison for what could be happening, I do get the feeling he'll eventually slide behind Trey Lance and it will shock a lot of people. I still think Fields is easily worth a top 10 pick. I think I would attempt to trade one of our interior DL to move up, we really can't keep them all so why not try to use one to help get an asset for the team? It would be far better than letting them walk. 

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23 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Justin Fields seems to be falling in various mock drafts in a way that is reminiscent of how DeShaun Watson fell in 2017.  My question is, what's a package we could put together if he makes it to 9, 12, or 13?  Would you all rather trade the '22 first or one of our defensive linemen in addition to #19?  Would you all trade Daron Payne or Jonathan Adams to go up and get Fields?

NO paid a future first to go from 29 to 14 to take Marcus Davenport.  I don’t think it would cost that much to go from 19 to 9.  It would be similar to the Steelers-Denver trade for Devin Bush.  It would cost this year’s 2nd and next year’s third

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