kfrankie

The "Re-Opening" the Economy Thread

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11 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

Almost full restaurants sound like a bad idea?

I think right now yes.  but if we don't see any major outbreaks in the next 30 days, I don't see why we can't do it by 4th of July.  The test will be 14 days after Memorial Day and the start of the majority of these protests. If we don't see anything significant, let's reopen everything.  There is a lot of money in reserve that Americans want to spend on.  

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My point is that the responsible people are going to be. If the rest of the people are willing to take the risk and not properly protect themselves... So. 

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Managing the plateau over summer with no schools, no concerts, no sporting events, no travel, etc is one thing.  You can get the economy moving.  It’s doable.

 

Holiday season might be quite a test.

 

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39 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Managing the plateau over summer with no schools, no concerts, no sporting events, no travel, etc is one thing.  You can get the economy moving.  It’s doable.

 

Holiday season might be quite a test.

 

 

Americans will be traveling.  Disney will be the hottest place this summer if they are open and nothing else.  Beaches, National Parks are already seeing big demand. 

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I think movie theaters can open. Its one of the few places where its quite easy to enforce social distancing. Just don't sell as many tickets. Have attendants outside making sure people have masks on. You can easily clean up theaters between shows(they do that anyway and it'd be easier to clean with reduced capacity). All in all its a much more controlled environment than say an amusement park or pool.

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16 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think movie theaters can open. Its one of the few places where its quite easy to enforce social distancing. Just don't sell as many tickets. Have attendants outside making sure people have masks on. You can easily clean up theaters between shows(they do that anyway and it'd be easier to clean with reduced capacity). All in all its a much more controlled environment than say an amusement park or pool.

I just think people will start taking off the masks after the lights go off. Plus the air conditioning moving that air all around. Hard pass for me on going to the theater.

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21 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think movie theaters can open. Its one of the few places where its quite easy to enforce social distancing. Just don't sell as many tickets. Have attendants outside making sure people have masks on. You can easily clean up theaters between shows(they do that anyway and it'd be easier to clean with reduced capacity). All in all its a much more controlled environment than say an amusement park or pool.

Our theatres are putting in drive-ins in the parking lots.  That seems more efficient for them cost wise.

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Is a market correction going to come? or will it be a nike swoosh? Are people buying stocks since there are no sports or a lot of liquid cash given by the fed?

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1 hour ago, skinfan2k said:

Is a market correction going to come? or will it be a nike swoosh? Are people buying stocks since there are no sports or a lot of liquid cash given by the fed?

 

I'll refer you to the article I posted in the Recession thread:

 

 

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Well on the local level,(Nevada),casinos are opening and in my small town area,boy are they. I understand all kinds of rules and guidelines have been set,but I'm unsure if crowd capacity is one of them. The casinos in town are jammed. Parking lots already around 75% full. And it's only near 6 p.m. on a Thursday. Yikes. 

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7 minutes ago, PCS said:

Well on the local level,(Nevada),casinos are opening and in my small town area,boy are they. I understand all kinds of rules and guidelines have been set,but I'm unsure if crowd capacity is one of them. The casinos in town are jammed. Parking lots already around 75% full. And it's only near 6 p.m. on a Thursday. Yikes. 

 

Well, casinos are places where people go, to gamble with things they shouldn't gamble with.  :) 

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20 minutes ago, PCS said:

Well on the local level,(Nevada),casinos are opening and in my small town area,boy are they. I understand all kinds of rules and guidelines have been set,but I'm unsure if crowd capacity is one of them. The casinos in town are jammed. Parking lots already around 75% full. And it's only near 6 p.m. on a Thursday. Yikes. 

making bank with my MGM and other casino stocks :)

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14 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

The Market has no conscience!!  V recovery is coming! 

The stock market is not the economy, while the market may get back to or near it's earlier level it doesn't represent the actual economy. 

 

Being good for your portfolio doesn't directly correlate with the realities of the economy. I saw that 2.5 million jobs were added last month but that still puts us at something like 13% unemployment which is better than the 14%. Unemployment is still a massive issue for a consumer based economy with almost no tools left to goose it. 

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Rough back of the envelope calculations would tell that 11-15% of the jobs lost since the downturn were restored. Which isn't surprising since businesses in some parts of the country started to reopen at the beginning of May.

 

Even if we return back to 80%-90% of economic activity prior to the shutdown, that is still a deep recession. And it's entirely unclear at what point the post-shutdown recovery actually stalls, which is bound to happen.

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3 minutes ago, GoSkinsGo said:

The stock market is not the economy, while the market may get back to or near it's earlier level it doesn't represent the actual economy. 

 

Being good for your portfolio doesn't directly correlate with the realities of the economy. I saw that 2.5 million jobs were added last month but that still puts us at something like 13% unemployment which is better than the 14%. Unemployment is still a massive issue for a consumer based economy with almost no tools left to goose it. 

With 40 million lost jobs, only 37.5 million jobs to go. If the trend between now and election day is up, with jobs being added each month, that helps Trump a little. 

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1 minute ago, Rdskns2000 said:

With 40 million lost jobs, only 37.5 million jobs to go. If the trend between now and election day is up, with jobs being added each month, that helps Trump a little. 

 

I think it would also and it would be good for the country as a whole. I'm concerned about the long term recovery and how many jobs will actually return versus lost forever. 

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8 minutes ago, GoSkinsGo said:

 

I think it would also and it would be good for the country as a whole. I'm concerned about the long term recovery and how many jobs will actually return versus lost forever. 


the jobs lost forever were going to go at some point anyway.  We hopefully just sped up the market cycle a little, since we were almost at the top of one before the covid crisis. 
 

The 2.5m jobs number is a big deal, because most were forecasting further job market declines. 

But, one data point isn’t a trend against the back drop of many industries that have ongoing-concern issues, several companies which are close to default on loans (which gives banks bad debt which they have to write off which decreases the value of there assets, which makes it harder for them to loan money, which can make it harder for the economy to grow)...

 

We will see. The jobs report isn’t evidence of a v-recovery, but it’s hope for one :D

 

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16 hours ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

Things have really plummeted. Surprised gyms are so low.

 

None of this surprises me. It's been a long time for people to go without things that make up their daily routines...as the virus becomes "less scary" to the general population, many within that population will be ready to start getting back to normal. 

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I have the feeling that it'll bounce up a bit in the next couple reports and then stall. LOTS of the laid off people I know on unemployment now just went back to work or will in the next 2 weeks. But when a retail company with 150 stores shutters, they aren't coming back as before. And a lot of employers are using the current situation to lay off employees and pressure the people "lucky" enough to have a job with more responsibilities and negative salary pressures. 

 

In the wake of the great recession, my one job essentially assumed the responsibilities for three. That never ended. I wonder what's next for some. 

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A lot of service industry jobs will never return. If you're over 50 you might be looking at some tough times getting rehired. 

How do the ~4-5M 2020 college grads who weren't in the work force count in the unemployment stats?

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