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The Quarantine Thread

No Excuses

By No Excuses
in The Tailgate

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techboy

techboy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

You're not changing anything, it has to (statistically) land on black at some point. As long as there is no max bet limit and you have the money to triple your bet after each loss, you will win. Once you win, you start over and repeat the process. I'm not sure if a casino will let you get away with that for too long even if there isn't a max bet limit.

 

That's called the Martingale. It doesn't work. You can't beat math.

 

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

 

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Simmsy

Simmsy

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, techboy said:

 

That's called the Martingale. It doesn't work. You can't beat math.

 

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

 

 

 

I'll have to take your word for it. I understand what the guy is saying, but his math makes no sense to me. The more he uses his math to explain it, the more lost I get.

 

Edit: I also looked at the wiki page, that math is even more confusing.

Edited by Simmsy
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gbear

gbear

Posted
Posted (edited)

Census Pulse survey

According to this Census pulse story this morning, almost 47% of all households reported lost income and/or their jobs last month. 21% reported slight or no confidence in their ability to pay next months mortgage or rent. These are some seriously sobering numbers. I note the low response rate for Census, but still there were over 70k responses.

 

In other interesting news, people with school aged kids reported spending 13 hours a week on school work. I wish we only needed to spend that in our house. I don't know whether to take this as a sign our kids may not be falling behind like we fear or all our children are falling behind

 

Edited by gbear
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Skinsfan1311

Skinsfan1311

Posted
Posted
On 5/27/2020 at 8:05 PM, techboy said:

 

Uh, no. You can't change probability with a betting pattern. This is equivalent to picking up nickels in front of a steam roller.

 

In a good casino, you'll lose at just about everything (except maybe poker if you're good enough to overcome the house cut)... That's why casinos stay in business.

 

There are even a few video poker machines which have a slight player advantage with optimal play, though these are often monopolized by syndicates. 

 

What does "monopolized by syndicates" mean?

 

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techboy

techboy

Posted
Posted
Just now, Skinsfan1311 said:

What does "monopolized by syndicates" mean?

 

 

When I first learned about positive expectation video poker, I read that when these machines were found, groups of people with large bankrolls would just grind them nonstop.

 

The Wizard of Odds site now talks about machines on the outskirts of Vegas in locals' casinos which limit bet sizing to avoid big damage. Presumably this means that there's not much incentive to learn optimal strategy (which can be complicated) and implement it, so they probably still make money on the people that play them.

 

I don't know if the larger payout positive expectation machines exist any more... Probably not. Casinos have gotten better at the math.

 

I guess that small part of my comment was probably out of date. It's all theory for me these days anyway. I just like math, and find the theory fascinating.

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abdcskins

abdcskins

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, techboy said:

 

When I first learned about positive expectation video poker, I read that when these machines were found, groups of people with large bankrolls would just grind them nonstop.

 

The Wizard of Odds site now talks about machines on the outskirts of Vegas in locals' casinos which limit bet sizing to avoid big damage. Presumably this means that there's not much incentive to learn optimal strategy (which can be complicated) and implement it, so they probably still make money on the people that play them.

 

I don't know if the larger payout positive expectation machines exist any more... Probably not. Casinos have gotten better at the math.

 

I guess that small part of my comment was probably out of date. It's all theory for me these days anyway. I just like math, and find the theory fascinating.

 

Somewhat related, I always wonder if there are laws that dictate how often a machine has to payout. For instance, take any random slot machine in Las Vegas. How does anyone know that machine will ever actually hit a jackpot? Or even a large payout? For all anyone knows, none of them are actually set to hit. That's why I consider slot machines the worst possible bet in Vegas that anyone can make - they are all crappy I realize, but you get the point. And I agree with you about poker. I would add sports betting too, although the juice the books charge evens out the odds to their favor. If you are good at picking underdogs on the moneyline you can beat the bookies.

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TradeTheBeal!

TradeTheBeal!

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, abdcskins said:

 

Somewhat related, I always wonder if there are laws that dictate how often a machine has to payout. For instance, take any random slot machine in Las Vegas. How does anyone know that machine will ever actually hit a jackpot? Or even a large payout? For all anyone knows, none of them are actually set to hit. That's why I consider slot machines the worst possible bet in Vegas that anyone can make - they are all crappy I realize, but you get the point. And I agree with you about poker. I would add sports betting too, although the juice the books charge evens out the odds to their favor. If you are good at picking underdogs on the moneyline you can beat the bookies.

 

Highly regulated.

 

https://www.lasvegas4newbies.com/chap10-2.html

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LadySkinsFan

LadySkinsFan

Posted
Posted

I heard from my cousin this morning. My aunt has dementia (late 80s) pretty bad and my uncle has dragged his feet about putting her in a nursing home. Which turned out to be a good thing. My cousin said all the deaths in Lycoming County PA were nursing home residents except for one. 

 

I don't know what the stats are for my county here in Texas. I still keep safe regardless of what other people do.

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techboy

techboy

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, abdcskins said:

 

Somewhat related, I always wonder if there are laws that dictate how often a machine has to payout. For instance, take any random slot machine in Las Vegas. How does anyone know that machine will ever actually hit a jackpot? Or even a large payout? For all anyone knows, none of them are actually set to hit. 

 

As already noted, they're closely regulated, but really there's no reason for them to cheat. Slot machines are cash cows for the casinos, because the house advantage is so high, and when people do win, it's just good advertising so more people want to keep pumping money directly into their bottom line.

 

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Mr. Sinister

Mr. Sinister

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, KAOSkins said:

I'm forced to confront the fact that I was eating out way too often.  The extra couple c notes a month have been nice.  And the food is generally much better.

 

I was the exact opposite. Almost always cooked my own meals (chicken, fish, turkey, occasional beef stew, spaghetti or lasagna), and would get a sub/sandwich for lunch at work, but I would eat out once a week or every 2 weeks, and do it big (steakhouse, Indian, soul food joint, pizza, Wendy's, etc). 

 

Its killing me that I cant really do it all that much now.

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Mooka

Mooka

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, KAOSkins said:

I'm forced to confront the fact that I was eating out way too often.  The extra couple c notes a month have been nice.  And the food is generally much better.

 

I keep thinking im craving food from my favorite spots... but when i do get takeout the food all tastes ridiculously salty/greasy to me now. Not just fast food or pizza but everything. 

 

My tastebuds have really changed cooking all my meals in just a cpl months.

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The 12th Commandment

The 12th Commandment

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

I was the exact opposite. Almost always cooked my own meals (chicken, fish, turkey, occasional beef stew, spaghetti or lasagna), and would get a sub/sandwich for lunch at work, but I would eat out once a week or every 2 weeks, and do it big (steakhouse, Indian, soul food joint, pizza, Wendy's, etc). 

 

Its killing me that I cant really do it all that much now.

I have done nice takeout a couple times now.  The Japanese place did a great job packing up all the little containers separate.  Cooking for yourself is much better as a rule.  But every now and then, even in this mess, you have to treat yourself, get some takeout from someplace you really like and get a bottle of vino.

2 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

I keep thinking im craving food from my favorite spots... but when i do get takeout the food all tastes ridiculously salty/greasy to me now. Not just fast food or pizza but everything. 

 

My tastebuds have really changed cooking all my meals in just a cpl months.

Ex-vegitarians describe the same thing.  More than just your taste buds, your body chemistry changes.  Like we were cattle in the feed lot and they put us back to pasture.

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