KDawg

Is Dominance Predicated on the EDGE?

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1 minute ago, dicksogj said:

 

Ok - 1st of all - lol - not sure why you are addressing me by that name.  Again - that screenname is based on my last name - I really need to change it.

 

 

Well, because it's your screen name. :shrug:

 

(why is that emote so large?)

 

 

Anyhow - if I am reading your reply correctly - the greatest value on this team is on DL (beyond punter) & I don't believe that it is close.  Most other areas involve question marks and/or a real need for improvement.  Now this can be viewed somewhat differently with the switch to the 4-3.  There isn't a huge need for an edge rusher.  However there is a need for improvement in that area given Kerrigan's age & big question marks for other current LBs except perhaps Sweat.  Young would be the perfect compliment in this case & he is a generational player.

 

What I mean by value is: Where do we get the most out of our cost:impact ratio on this team. Could be a single position, a position group, etc. I think DL makes sense as an answer as they are all on rookie contracts. Whereas, say, QB may not be because we have a player being paid a lot of our total cap % to rehab.

 

If they do nothing more than dramatically improve the front 7 this season I will consider the new regime a success to a degree.  The current D has had some outstanding moments, but they are almost always accompanied by poor moments - they need to be more consistent (& I believe that Del Rio will be a huge help in getting them there).   I realize that on D the DBs will still be somewhat of an issue, but there are some things that can be done to improve them this offseason & they can also make it a priority next offseason.  Issues in this area can be overcome to a degree by good play up front.

 

From a resources stand point, how much of a % of the cap would you be comfortable tying up in each position? (This goes for anyone reading, too). General numbers are mine, or a range. Obviously things change based on what you have/need to keep and drafting, etc. This is what I am most interested in. If you were building a team, what is your min-max for each position group you'd pay in terms of cap %. And again, this is general. You can't answer this definitively because situations dictate reality. 

 

Obviously you can't guarantee greatness for either Young or any other highly drafted players who might be involved in a trade down scenario.  I also would not draft a QB high in the draft.  We have no idea whether Haskins will be a bust or a future pro bowler (anyone who states otherwise is just making it up).  Just go with the guy for one more season & take it from there.

 

Take Haskins out of the soup. Take names out of the soup. 

 

Two questions:

 

1) Do you believe our current quarterback is capable of carrying a team on his back?

 

2) Do you believe there is a quarterback in the draft that has more cost:impact value than our current QB?

 

3) Relative to your answer to #1, which position in the draft do you feel has the most value towards us at the #2 pick? (OLB, OT, EDGE, QB, CB)

 

Anyhow - i don't believe that our takes on this matter anyhow - they will be drafting Young & I am excited about that prospect.

 

This thread isn't to debate on who we draft, necessarily. It is a macro view on cost:impact.

 

As I tried to make clear in the first line of the OP, I believe we will draft Chase Young. And I believe we should. 

 

But this is a discussion based on philosophy. And it's our OWN philosophies. Not necessarily what the Redskins should do.

 

It's a deeper thinking thread designed to get people thinking and to give people different points of view on things.

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16 hours ago, Unbias said:

Where did we allocate that rookie contract 'savings' = Smith - IRed, Kerrigan - IRed, Reed - IRed, Richardson - IRed, Norman, Collins and Moses. 

 

The big problem is that we aren't getting enough from our guys on rookie deals. Sure we aren't doing a good job with the savings we create, but overall if you compare our rookie contract value compared to SF or KC and there's a massive gap difference. Their guys are paving the way for a Superbowl while ours either want out (Scherff) or keep getting hurt (Guice). 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Redskins_draft_history

 

Disagree somewhat about the Redskins draft picks especially for the last 3 drafts.  I believe that the Redskins have had pretty decent drafts lately & also you can't truly judge a draft until at least 3 years after the picks are made (some players take longer to develop and/or could be affected by poor coaching).  You cited a handful of cases & I would dispute your claim about Scherff - he has been quoted by several sources as stating that he wants to remain on the Skins - a lot of this is posturing for a better contract - happens with all teams.

 

Let's look at each of the past three drafts.   2017 - Allen is solid & might be a real stud w/ the move to Del Rio,  R.  Anderson appeared to be a bust until the latter half of last season - he might also be a very valuable asset moving fwd.  Rouillier may not be spectacular but he has been a decent C.  Clemons is decent.  Guys like Moreau & Nicholson are somewhat disappointing but have their moments.  They may end up as busts but still TBD.  All in all not the worst draft in the world & includes some players who should be on the team for a very long time.

 

2018 - pretty decent draft.  Payne could be a monster in this new D.  Settle & Dion-Hamilton are solid & also should do better w/ the new setup.  Christian & Apke are TBD but have contributed at times & could be real assets.  Guice - oh well - just appears to be in the Reed mold & always injured - we will see.  A pretty sold draft.

 

2019 - obviously this is still TBD & depends on the future play of Haskins & Sweat to a large degree.  I feel pretty confident that Sweat will thrive in the new defensive setup - we will see.  As for Haskins - who knows.  We will just have to see over the next season or two.  I don't believe that you can make a final judgment on him based on limited play last season (especially since Gruden held him back initially) & he did appear to be making strides at the end of the season.  McClaurin was obviously a steal - great pick.  Harmon also looks like another steal.  Beyond that you have some other guys - B. Love, Moreland, Holcomb, Martin who are TBD.  Hard to judge this class until at least one more season, but it looks promising.

 

I agree that in the past the Redskins were terrible in the draft area.  They would either trade high picks, make bad picks or eventually get rid of highly drafted players over time.  However I think that they have improved dramatically in this area & Kyle Smith has been a huge asset in this regard.  We will see whether this translates into success over the next few seasons.

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Well, because it's your screen name. 

 

(why is that emote so large?)

 

 

 

 

 

LOL - my screen name isn't "dick" & I am pretty sure that you realize that & also realize that name has a certain connotation.  Oh well - I guess that this is your attempt at humor - all in good fun.

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2 minutes ago, dicksogj said:

 

LOL - my screen name isn't "dick" & I am pretty sure that you realize that & also realize that name has a certain connotation.  Oh well - I guess that this is your attempt at humor - all in good fun.

 

What? I don't know you at all, man. I'm not going to call you "Sammy". It would be like you calling me "Simon" or something instead of KDawg.

 

I have no idea what a dicksogj is. The assumption is that Dick is your name.

 

I'm not attempting to be funny. Or derisive. 

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9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

Take Haskins out of the soup. Take names out of the soup. 

 

Two questions:

 

1) Do you believe our current quarterback is capable of carrying a team on his back?

 

2) Do you believe there is a quarterback in the draft that has more cost:impact value than our current QB?

 

3) Relative to your answer to #1, which position in the draft do you feel has the most value towards us at the #2 pick? (OLB, OT, EDGE, QB, CB)

 

 

 

1. Yes but again this is TBD.  He needs to improve & mature but I certainly believe he is capable of this role.  I am not stating that this will happen & again he is TBD - he could be a very good QB for years to come or a bust. We will get a good read on this early next season.

 

2. Personally - no - not IMO.  I am trying to be real here & not be totally hypothetical.  They are getting Burrow - he will be drafted by the Bengals.  That only really leaves Tua as someone they would consider.  He is huge risk/reward guy.  I just believe that people overvalue QB way to much & I am certainly not in favor of constantly drafting QBs high while neglecting other areas of the team.  Others may disagree w/ me - oh well.

 

3. I truly believe that obtaining an elite EDGE player is huge for this team given their issues last season & the switch to Del Rio & the 4-3.  Again - if they do nothing more than dramatically improve the front 7 and the pass rush I will be very, very happy.  If you were talking about say a pretty good EDGE rusher I may view this differently, but you are talking about a once in a blue moon player which IMO makes this a different conversation.  If the new regime is as advertised I have faith that the other areas will be adequately addressed, but everyone needs to understand that this can't all be done in short order.  The current mess was 20 years in the making - what would lead anyone to believe that this can all be fixed in one offseason?

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

What? I don't know you at all, man. I'm not going to call you "Sammy". It would be like you calling me "Simon" or something instead of KDawg.

 

I have no idea what a dicksogj is. The assumption is that Dick is your name.

 

I'm not attempting to be funny. Or derisive. 

 

Peace.  Obviously I have now told you several times that this is not my name.  Oh well - do whatever you like - you obviously feel the need to argue about everything.  NP.

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4 minutes ago, dicksogj said:

 

1. Yes but again this is TBD.  He needs to improve & mature but I certainly believe he is capable of this role.  I am not stating that this will happen & again he is TBD - he could be a very good QB for years to come or a bust. We will get a good read on this early next season.

 

2. Personally - no - not IMO.  I am trying to be real here & not be totally hypothetical.  They are getting Burrow - he will be drafted by the Bengals.  That only really leaves Tua as someone they would consider.  He is huge risk/reward guy.  I just believe that people overvalue QB way to much & I am certainly not in favor of constantly drafting QBs high while neglecting other areas of the team.  Others may disagree w/ me - oh well.

 

3. I truly believe that obtaining an elite EDGE player is huge for this team given their issues last season & the switch to Del Rio & the 4-3.  Again - if they do nothing more than dramatically improve the front 7 and the pass rush I will be very, very happy.  If you were talking about say a pretty good EDGE rusher I may view this differently, but you are talking about a once in a blue moon player which IMO makes this a different conversation.  If the new regime is as advertised I have faith that the other areas will be adequately addressed, but everyone needs to understand that this can't all be done in short order.  The current mess was 20 years in the making - what would lead anyone to believe that this can all be fixed in one offseason?

 

Good reply. This is similar to where I am. Although, if I'm answering my own questions:

 

1) No. I don't. I think he's capable of being an okay quarterback, but not a game changer. He reminds me a lot of Mitch Trubisky in his abilities, less mobile, better accuracy when he's on. The new system can go either way - a tremendous boon with a staff who he believes believes in him... or a bane as it's a new offense and new coaches to learn and adapt to. I am not at a point where I don't believe he CAN'T be the guy, though. So I have hope for him. 

 

2) Yes - I believe there is a better quarterback and it's Tua. I think Tua is the best quarterback in the draft - but i have a caveat here - I don't know that his cost:impact ratio holds a candle to Haskins due to injury concerns. As the second pick in the draft, his contract is heavier than Haskins (though still a bargain) and if he is constantly banged up, he can't make the impact that he is capable of.

 

3) Based on my first two answers, I believe maximal value in terms of cost:impact ratios is at EDGE in this upcoming draft.

Edited by KDawg

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We draft Chase Young thats 5 potentially 6 First round draft picks starting on defense.... 

 

Young 2nd overall

Sweat 26 th overall

Payne 13th overall

Allen 17th overall

Kerrigan 16th overall

Reuben Foster ? 31st overall

 

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On 1/18/2020 at 6:11 PM, KDawg said:

For the record, and to be crystal clear transparent: I don't know if there even is an answer aside from finding good value (READ: Not necessarily cheap, but good use of total resources to achieve a common goal). 

 

I think you should give yourself more credit. The statement in bold exactly what I think the answer is at all positions in football unless you find a T. Brady. And even then, he took a deal so I cannot really say that he is an exception to it. 

 

Its a game of resources, as I believe you so eloquently put it. The answer has more to do with how you manage them than anything else.

 

Whats crazy (to me) is that the argument can be made that after your management of resources, the next most important things are luck, and getting hot at the right time in no particular order lol

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16 minutes ago, JoeJacobyHOForRIOT said:

We draft Chase Young thats 5 potentially 6 First round draft picks starting on defense.... 

 

Young 2nd overall

Sweat 26 th overall

Payne 13th overall

Allen 17th overall

Kerrigan 16th overall

Reuben Foster ? 31st overall

 

 

Foster is just now regaining feeling in his toes. I wouldn't count on him. 

 

Do you believe this is our best cost:impact that we can achieve currently defensively?

 

6 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

I think you should give yourself more credit. The statement in bold exactly what I think the answer is at all positions in football unless you find a T. Brady. And even then, he took a deal so I cannot really say that he is an exception to it. 

 

Its a game of resources, as I believe you so eloquently put it. The answer has more to do with how you manage them than anything else.

 

Whats crazy (to me) is that the argument can be made that after your management of resources, the next most important things are luck, and getting hot at the right time in no particular order lol

 

Appreciate that.

 

And I'll say this: The better run teams will always beat out the poorly run teams in macro. A bad team can beat a good team, sure, but in the long run the well runs will always trump the poor runs. 

 

But in the immediate, luck and momentum (which science and every class I've ever taken on sport psychology says doesn't exist, to which I disagree) will always play a role in the micro aspect of football. Any given Sunday. Or Saturday. Or Friday. 

 

But those are always, always a factor. 

Edited by KDawg

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I've been poking this point with a stick in the other thread, but it probably goes better here.

 

Dominance doesn't automatically mean pass rusher on defense, even if it is the costliest position (along with corner).

 

MLB is probably the QB of the defense and I think that might be where dominance is predicated. We don't see the Urlacher, Lewis, Vilmas too often, but there are a few. Sean Lee is the most important player on the Cowboys defense. Adams takes that role on the Jets.

 

When was the last time a dominant MLB was in FA, or even traded, while in their prime or at least 30 or under? 

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4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I've been poking this point with a stick in the other thread, but it probably goes better here.

 

Dominance doesn't automatically mean pass rusher on defense, even if it is the costliest position (along with corner).

 

MLB is probably the QB of the defense and I think that might be where dominance is predicated. We don't see the Urlacher, Lewis, Vilmas too often, but there are a few. Sean Lee is the most important player on the Cowboys defense. Adams takes that role on the Jets.

 

When was the last time a dominant MLB was in FA, or even traded, while in their prime or at least 30 or under? 

 

Good points.

 

I think you can build the DL easier in the draft and through FA. I also think the DL in its totality is more important than a MLB... Simply because even if you have a stud there, if the OL gets to the second level on a routine basis his impact is lessened.

 

Where I think teams' make a mistake is they can put too many high cost resources in the defensive line, and they neglect the next level while trying to find the perfect DL set up.

 

To be clear, I don't think this is us at this point. There is no MIKE value early in the draft. EDGE clearly is the top value (unless you argue QB). 

 

But it is an interesting concept to think about. 

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50 minutes ago, JoeJacobyHOForRIOT said:

We draft Chase Young thats 5 potentially 6 First round draft picks starting on defense.... 

 

Young 2nd overall

Sweat 26 th overall

Payne 13th overall

Allen 17th overall

Kerrigan 16th overall

Reuben Foster ? 31st overall

 

 

 

And Landon Collins was 33rd overall.

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13 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Good points.

 

I think you can build the DL easier in the draft and through FA. I also think the DL in its totality is more important than a MLB... Simply because even if you have a stud there, if the OL gets to the second level on a routine basis his impact is lessened.

 

Where I think teams' make a mistake is they can put too many high cost resources in the defensive line, and they neglect the next level while trying to find the perfect DL set up.

 

To be clear, I don't think this is us at this point. There is no MIKE value early in the draft. EDGE clearly is the top value (unless you argue QB). 

 

But it is an interesting concept to think about. 

Taking that a step further, I remember when the Ravens switched from a 43 to a 34, Lewis complained that he's now taking on Guards and Centers, instead of TEs and RBs and being neutralized fairly easily and therefor not able to be a key player anymore.

 

D line is important, of course, but I think you can gameplan the effectiveness of the Dline more than someone like the MLB who lives on a bit of an island. 

 

I assume it comes down to playing to your strengths. 

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3 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

And Landon Collins was 33rd overall.

Yeah i forgot about him, I don't really have a opinion or prediction on this other than just being fascinating. Has any other team in league history ever fielded a defensive starting squad composed of so many 1st round picks. Interesting. 

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10 hours ago, dicksogj said:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Redskins_draft_history

 

Disagree somewhat about the Redskins draft picks especially for the last 3 drafts.  I believe that the Redskins have had pretty decent drafts lately & also you can't truly judge a draft until at least 3 years after the picks are made (some players take longer to develop and/or could be affected by poor coaching).  You cited a handful of cases & I would dispute your claim about Scherff - he has been quoted by several sources as stating that he wants to remain on the Skins - a lot of this is posturing for a better contract - happens with all teams...

 

 

I wasn't so much saying that the Redskins have failed at the draft. They have a lot of players who are worth their respective contracts and should probably be extended, but we don't have anyone like Bosa, Kittle, Armstead, Mahomes, Jones or Hill. Those guys are giving you All-pro caliber performances. They allow teams to reallocate cap space to other places knowing they have a all-pro caliber player at certain key spots. 

 

Our hits are good. Definitely above average and like I said worth of keeping around. I'd actually argue that Terry, especially in his first year, is one of those guys that create multiples of player value for the amount he's being paid. I don't see that anywhere else on this team. 

 

Let's look within our division: 

 

Giants - Barkley does. Jones looked like he does for stretches. They also went a while being horrible at drafting, so it explains where they are. 

Eagles - Sanders did for stretches this past year. Goedert looks like he's that guy as well. Wentz obviously was a big part when they won in 17. I'd add Jalen Mills was also important in their SB run and he's was a 7th rounder who started his first year. I'd add in the 2 year stretch were they got Ertz/Johnson/Cox. They have all been all pro material while they were earning their 2nd contracts. 

Cowboys - I'll say maybe Vander Esch? After that you'd have to go back to Elliot (on his rookie deal), Byron Jones and of course Dak. With all those contracts coming up it's why people think their window has closed. Going back further there was a 2 year period where they drafted Martin/Frederick/Lawrence. Those 3 created a lot of value beyond their rookie contracts. 

 

To bring it all back to the Redkins. I'd say some of the guys who have really created value beyond their deals. Ionnidis (5th rounder), Scherff (3 Probowls) and Terry (mentioned) come to mind. Payne and Allen are both good, but neither has made the probowl, right? They are performing well enough to get another contract, but not creating value beyond where they were drafted. Before that the last time we had guys that created that large incremental value would have been Reed (3rd), Cousins (3rd) and before that Kerrigan/Trent?

 

There's a lot of intangibles going on when I talk 'value created beyond their rookie contract' so maybe I'll lose some people. I want to be clear, I like a lot of these players. There's no way I'm saying Payne or Allen were not worth being selected.  Love both of them. I'm just saying the teams that end up being in the Superbowl have some of their draft picks play well beyond their rookie contract and go 2-3 seasons being grossly underpaid. We have done that recently and IMHO have at least one guy on his rookie contract that fits that bill (Terry), but we haven't done it enough to be a Superbowl contender.

Edited by Unbias

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I was hoping someone was going to post that, @volsmet. Been sitting on that... Also been waiting for you to join in the fun.

 

So despite everyone believing that Preston was elite (he's not, he was good though) all season long, and Montez was disappointing to a lot around here for his work this season, the two are extremely close in their numbers, and Montez is a rookie. That speaks volumes for his ability in the long term. And specifically his value over the next four seasons.

Edited by KDawg
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I somehow doubt the Packers had Smith dropped into coverage as much as Sweat, instead of allowing him to just attack the QB.

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6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I somehow doubt the Packers had Smith dropped into coverage as much as Sweat, instead of allowing him to just attack the QB.

 

 

I want to say that i saw somewhere that Preston dropped back with about the same frequency as he did here.... but i dont have the in depth stats to support that right now.

 

 

And for the record...  im not a fan of how often we drop these guys in coverage.  Should be a lot different with Sweat likely havin his hand in the dirt and at DE

Edited by OVCChairman
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6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I somehow doubt the Packers had Smith dropped into coverage as much as Sweat, instead of allowing him to just attack the QB.

 

Au contrare monfrare (I don't speak French so this is likely spelled wrong)

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/12/8/21000909/a-few-statistics-and-facts-about-preston-smith

 



For this, I don’t need my calculator.
  • In his three years with the Redskins, Preston Smith dropped into coverage between 45 and 72 times in 16 games.
  • With the Packers, he has been in coverage on 110 snaps in 12 games.
  • Preston was playing the run about 19.5 snaps per game over his 3 years in Washington; in Green Bay, he’s playing the run 20 snaps per game.

Clearly, one of the big changes in his game is that he is playing coverage more often and rushing less often, but his pressure rate is higher and he’s converting those pressures into sacks far more often.

That’s a good question. How much more often is Smith turning his pressures into sacks?

I decided to express this as sacks/total pressures:

  • 2016 - 14.7%
  • 2017 - 20.5%
  • 2018 - 11.32%
  • 2019 - 26.2%

As we saw earlier, Smith has been more effective at getting pressure than ever before — producing a better pressure rate every season, and now it is clear that he’s converting pressures into sacks at a higher rate than ever before.

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Interesting. I meant compared directly last year Smith to Sweat, but that's still fascinating to know.

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Interesting points on LB

 

Rivera picked Cam in 2011, then got his LB in Kuechly in 2012, then drafted 2 DTs with his first 2 picks in 2013.

 

I really think we pick LB after Young, and if it still isn’t working out by next year LB will be top of the draft wish list in 2021.

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