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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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1 hour ago, Destino said:

I’m not sure I’d want to live if I had to stare into the inside of people’s dirty mouths every working day of my life.  Battle or virus, just let it be done.  

 

Are you kidding me? You know how much dentists charge, even for basic services?

 

I'd stare into some sloth's sugar-ravaged molars a few hours a day to drive home in my 911 turbo.

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1 hour ago, Larry said:

I'd say that my completely unscientific gut does not find it impossible to believe that the impact on the US might be bigger than it is within Wuhan.  (No, I'm still not going to buy simply assuming that it will be ten times worse.)  

 

1 hour ago, bcl05 said:

Not trying to address the spat you two are having, but, here is the primary data:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593v1

 

This suggests a change in R0 (a standard measure of infectivity) from 3.86 to 0.32 (caveat- big error bars) pre and post intervention.  There is a ton of data in there and the article is worth reading.  

 

Going to quote these together because the data in that paper is very interesting indeed and goes with this conversation.

 

A virus with an R0 of 3.86 without intervention means that on average, an infected person will pass it onto 3.86 people (ok so really 3-4 people). For reference, the R0 of the flu is around 1. So COVID-19 will very easily spread all over the world if public health intervention is absent. And we see that in Wuhan, really intense intervention potentially brought it down to .32, which allows for the possibility that the virus can not only be contained, but defeated as well.

 

A virus with an R0 between 3-4 and in which 20% of the cases are severe to critical needs to be contained very, very rapidly before it overwhelms healthcare and diagnostic services. And for a virus with an R0 of ~3-4 without intervention, a moderate outbreak is potentially millions of people infected. And it's not just the total # but how fast that numbers rises too. In China and South Korea, the data tells us that they are now catching people with COVID-19 before it can be transmitted to other people. We are not remotely even close to getting to this point based on how slow testing is here.

 

So will it be 10x worse than Wuhan here? Right now, no one can say this for sure, but we are absolutely facing this risk if we don't ramp up testing and monitoring at magnitudes of order greater than what is happening right now. Because one of the biggest risks we have right now is that the diagnostic capability continues playing catch up with the spread of the virus.

Edited by No Excuses
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So I'm supposed to get married in Chicago first week of April with people flying in from across the country. After looking at how Italy has been faring and the fact that we are probably a few weeks behind them I am concerned about what this means for the wedding and if its even prudent for it to go forward / will it even be allowed to at that point. Have already spent a ton of money on it too. This sucks.

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I would welcome 10 times worse than Wuhan. If it's 10 times worse, we are talking about 800,000 cases vs 80,000. There are 800,000 hospitalizations here in particularly bad flu seasons. 

 

The way some epidemiologists are talking, 80,000,000 cases is more likely, which is such an obscenely high number that I can hardly wrap my mind around it. Part of me wonders how that's even possible when China and South Korea are seeing their numbers flattening in the tens of thousands, but if there's anyone who could screw this up, it's us. 

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5 minutes ago, Bacon said:

The way some epidemiologists are talking, 80,000,000

 

It would take a monumental collapse, something like the entire government failing and society falling into anarchy for us to get to this point. People are already taking some precautions which is bound to lower spread, i.e. reducing travel, working from home, less social gatherings, approaching healthcare providers if they feel sick when they wouldn't have in the past for the flu or common cold etc.

 

Our worst case short-term scenario is in the ~ 1 million range because the worse it gets, the more we will be shutting down potential modes of transmission as well. Schools will close, mandatory quarantines might go into effect.

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10 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

It would take a monumental collapse, something like the entire government failing and society falling into anarchy for us to get to this point. People are already taking some precautions which is bound to lower spread, i.e. reducing travel, working from home, less social gatherings, approaching healthcare providers if they feel sick when they wouldn't have in the past for the flu or common cold etc.

 

Our worst case short-term scenario is in the ~ 1 million range because the worse it gets, the more we will be shutting down potential modes of transmission as well. Schools will close, mandatory quarantines might go into effect.

 

If there are any positives I can pull from our national reaction, it's that many businesses and state governments - anyone NOT affiliated with the White House - are being proactive and aggressive in their response. I have seen many of the same common sense reactions that other nations have had...just not in the federal government. 

 

Many of us know how serious this could be. We need to be less stringent in our testing process, we need the test kits to be on hand instead of in transit and we need our Glorious Leader to stop gaslighting us. 

Edited by Bacon
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21 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Actually tl;dr of the entire post:

 

(Chart not quoted per board rules).  

 

Yes, I absolutely agree that even if containment is doomed to failure, that slowing down the rate of spread, so everybody doesn't get it at once can certainly have a profound impact on how damaging this thing is.  A million people infected in a year is a lot better than a million people infected in a month, even if it's the same number.  

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21 minutes ago, haithman said:

So I'm supposed to get married in Chicago first week of April with people flying in from across the country. After looking at how Italy has been faring and the fact that we are probably a few weeks behind them I am concerned about what this means for the wedding and if its even prudent for it to go forward / will it even be allowed to at that point. Have already spent a ton of money on it too. This sucks.

 

Have a virtual wedding.  

 

I think the Mods have the authority.  

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The r/economy subreddit is hilarious today. Trump has been peddling fake news about the health of our economy by pointing to the stock market and it ****ing shattered at the first sign of adversity. What a joke. 

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36 minutes ago, haithman said:

So I'm supposed to get married in Chicago first week of April with people flying in from across the country. After looking at how Italy has been faring and the fact that we are probably a few weeks behind them I am concerned about what this means for the wedding and if its even prudent for it to go forward / will it even be allowed to at that point. Have already spent a ton of money on it too. This sucks.

 

I dont know your situation, but you are marrying your wife and no one else, so my advice is prioritize that, the rest will take care of itself. 

 

We did ours in a courthouse once we gave up getting her parents here from Nigeria to save money then had free reception at our church since they offered, this isnt getting better anytime soon, but your wife will be there when it does.

Edited by Renegade7
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"The Senate schedule"?  

 

Has the Senate done anything (other than vote unanimously that soliciting a bribe isn't impeachable), in the last six months?   

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