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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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Rachel did a whole segment on that Maine wedding last week. Crazy stuff...one of the musicians at the reception is a music teacher at a school, there's an outbreak in the school now. A couple hundred people have gotten infected from a wedding attended by 60-some people. 

Stupidity is running rampant. 

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1 hour ago, skinsmarydu said:

Rachel did a whole segment on that Maine wedding last week. Crazy stuff...one of the musicians at the reception is a music teacher at a school, there's an outbreak in the school now. A couple hundred people have gotten infected from a wedding attended by 60-some people. 

Stupidity is running rampant. 

 

Recall early on in this thing.  

 

South Korea had a really vigorous testing and contact tracing.  There were only a few dozen cases, they were voluntarily quarantined, and they knew how every one of them got it.  

 

Until "Patient 31".  Who refused her doctors advice, and attended two services at a church, across from the hospital.  

 

Attendees of those two services accounted for 250 cases.  And there were another 40 or so associated with a funeral that was held, 50 miles outside of town, that was attended by several members of the above church.  

 

When their system got overloaded and they couldn't track it any more, "Patient 31" was responsible for more than half of the cases in SK.  

 

1 hour ago, TryTheBeal! said:

I hope, at least, that it was open bar.

 

Obviously not.  The alcohol would have killed the virus and made everybody immune.  

 

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Soooo...my wife's cousin's daughter's boyfriend (yeah I know....attends Liberty University) tested positive today AFTER a family gathering Sunday (which did not include us).

Aunt & Uncle - quarantine 14 days

Cousin's Daughter & boyfriend: quarantine 14 days

Cousin & Wife: 'Not sure what they're going to do."

 

**** them...I told my wife - seriously, **** THEM. 

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Pharma CEO warns that millions worldwide won't get COVID vaccine until 2024

 

The chief executive of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer says it will take about four or five years to produce enough COVID-19 vaccines to inoculate everyone in the world.

 

In a video call Monday with the Financial Times, Adar Poonawalla, CEO of Serum Institute of India (SII), estimated that the feat will require 15 billion doses for a two-doses-per-person vaccine. But he warned that pharmaceutical manufacturers currently do not have the production capacity to come close to meeting that demand.

 

Even if a vaccine were ready by early next year, as India’s health minister Harsh Vardan predicted in remarks Sunday, there won’t be enough doses to vaccinate the entire global population until 2024, Poonawalla said.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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Washington Post Article
 
 
I think on the scary things in this comes at the end of the article when it says roughly 50% of trials that make it to phase 3 fail.  Now it may still seem like the odds are greatly in our favor with roughly 10 drugs in trials now.  However, I am not sure it works that way if the drugs work in similar manners.  They may fail for the same reasons (treating the virus that way may have toxic side effects or not be effective). 
 
Also on the flip side of this, I hope the trials are robust enough a case can be made for passage along the lines of the case for which I presented data for Biogin in continued usage of Tysabri for patients with Multiple Sclerosis.  In that case, I argued it was worth the slight potential for very bad adverse effects from the drug because the odds were worse for me not taking the drug.  Ultimately, this is what has been seen as valid logic for keeping it on the market. 
 
It seems plausible to me we could have a vaccine that kills one in x, but it kills less than the percentage of the population that will die from covid 19 if left unvaccinated.  It would seem to make sense to provisionally approve such a drug, for at least some segments of the population at highest risk, until such a time as a safer and/or more effective product is ready.
 

 

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15 minutes ago, gbear said:

It seems plausible to me we could have a vaccine that kills one in x, but it kills less than the percentage of the population that will die from covid 19 if left unvaccinated.

 

Thus guaranteeing the "Well, if everybody but me gets vaccinated, then I get the benefit without the risk" kind of "special people".  

 

Unintended consequences.  Ripple effects.  

 

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53 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

It’s disappointing that the CDC director is still needing to make the case for masks in September.  Nearly 200k people are dead, millions sick, and and unknown number with serious lingering damage as a result of having contracted the virus.  Just what the hell does it take for people to accept simple precautions?  

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12 minutes ago, Destino said:

Just what the hell does it take for people to accept simple precautions?


it basically seems to boil down to this for most people:

do the people I’ve picked to trust tell me I should or should do it (or think it, or whatever)?

if yes then fine I’m on board

if no then no, I don’t trust you. 
 

(and I think you can find this way more than you might initially think, if you’re looking for it, and I don’t think it only pertains to the group of people we’re talking about or this specific topic....)

 

what do we need? Fox News, the alt-right “media”, and trump to come out emphatically for wearing masks. In a way that cannot be misinterpreted. 
 

so, good luck with that. 
 

even worse the mindset is so ingrained that having a new president isn’t going to change it. These people aren’t going to start trusting the experts and Biden just cause Biden wins the election. 
 

and I imagine many of these people will be anti-vaccine in this case. and I’m not even talking about anti-vaxers it people that may be concerned about this being rushed. I’m talking about the people who don’t think you need to social distance, don’t think you need to wear a mask, don’t think this is “real”, as I don’t think ether mindset is going to change because a vaccine is released. 

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34 minutes ago, Destino said:

It’s disappointing that the CDC director is still needing to make the case for masks in September.  Nearly 200k people are dead, millions sick, and and unknown number with serious lingering damage as a result of having contracted the virus.  Just what the hell does it take for people to accept simple precautions?  

 

It used to be, months ago, that for every death, there were like 5 people in the ICU.  

 

Assume that's not a BAD guestimate as to the "crippled for life" estimate.  

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20 minutes ago, tshile said:

even worse the mindset is so ingrained that having a new president isn’t going to change it. These people aren’t going to start trusting the experts and Biden just cause Biden wins the election. 

 

Well, I could see a scenario in which something kinda like that might happen.  

 

Trump gets blown out in November.  Maybe the GOP loses both houses of Congress.  

 

The temptation if gonna be there, for the GOP to hang every bad thing that's happened in the last four years, the entire laundry list, on Trump.  Try to pull a "Oh, Trump did all that, vote for us in the midterms" spin.  

 

They'll still be the lying, amoral, anti-Americans they are now.  And you're right, their response to any fact that says they're wrong will still be to hit the gas on the l"lie your ass off" machine.  But they'll try to pretend that these particular lies were Trump.  

 

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How much worse off is America from COVID-19 than other rich nations? Much, much worse

 

Mapping America’s response to the coronavirus pandemic compared with other countries hasn’t been a simple task, not least because of the densely obscuring smoke issuing from the Trump White House. But a new analysis points to an inescapable conclusion.

 

How much worse than other rich countries has the U.S. done in fighting COVID-19 and protecting its economy? Much, much worse. Incredibly worse.

 

The analysis comes from Harry J. Holzer, a professor of public policy at Georgetown University and a fellow at the Brookings Institution, which published his report on Wednesday and an earlier version in June.

 

Here’s Holzer’s bottom line: “Both employment and health outcomes for the U.S. during the pandemic have been worse than in almost any other high-income country in the world.”

 

Had the U.S. merely matched the average unemployment rate changes among the richest members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, “at least 8.6 million more Americans would be employed today.” An equivalent record on COVID-19 deaths per capita would have resulted in the saving of 112,540 American lives.

 

About 13.6 million Americans were unemployed in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. About 190,000 people have died in the U.S. from COVID-19, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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8 hours ago, Larry said:

Somebody needs  to produce a meme:  

 

How many people at that wedding:  How many deaths:  

How many people at the latest Trump rally:  How many deaths?  

At the wedding?  7 deaths as of this morning. 167 new cases. 

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29 minutes ago, skinsmarydu said:

At the wedding?  7 deaths as of this morning. 167 new cases. 

 

I don't think you get the meme I'm proposing.  just pulling numbers out of my Trump, I'm thinking along the lines of . . . . 

 

Wedding:             43 people.  167 infections.  7 dead.  

Trump rally:  25,000 people  (90,000 infections?  4,000 deaths?)

 

Edited by Larry
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