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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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Posted (edited)

Is the second wave coming early or we missing the point trying to call it that opening up too early?

 

My job is pre-Phase 1 for my location, it's based on metrics to go up certain levels and down certain levels.

 

Getting to 100k felt like we didn't have to watch our phones to see if it got there anymore.  So what's the next milestone?

 

If the "second wave" does come early, what are we gonna call flu season this year?

Edited by Renegade7
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I read a few days ago that AZ was going to be the new hotspot. You can’t call it a 2nd wave I don’t think just looking at the numbers. They’re going to try to smother it before it gets out of hand though.

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7 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

I need to hit the weights bad.

 

Really bad.  

 

Its been a legit 3 months.  That’s far longer than any stretch in the last 35 years.

 

Not even sure where to start...

 

7 hours ago, Jumbo said:

me either

 

i quit exercising a month ago anyway so no point

 

 

dodgeballscene.jpg

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With regard to Brazil's numbers being unreliable: It's kinda scary to think how bad it may be there. Also, they need to call out US states for lying about their own numbers. We are probably at about 150,000 by now at least. 

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Posted (edited)

The manipulation of statistics is a maneuver of totalitarian regimes. Attempts are made to hide the numbers from # COVID19 to reduce the social control of health policies. The trick will not exempt the responsibility for the eventual genocide.

Bolsonaro denounced for crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court

 

Recovery trial: Brexit and overdose

 

Edited by FrFan
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Is the second wave coming early or we missing the point trying to call it that opening up too early?

 

My job is pre-Phase 1 for my location, it's based on metrics to go up certain levels and down certain levels.

 

Getting to 100k felt like we didn't have to watch our phones to see if it got there anymore.  So what's the next milestone?

 

If the "second wave" does come early, what are we gonna call flu season this year?

 

There isn't going to be a second wave because, at the rate we're going, the first wave isn't going to go away before we have a vaccine. The first has to end before there can be a second and our daily case totals have been stubborn for months.

 

The falling daily death totals are not an accident, however, and I'm bullish on them not reaching the previous peak for a number of reasons:

 

1. Social distancing measures have limited viral loads among the general population to the extent that most infections outside of a nursing home setting do not turn out to be severe. 

 

2. There is increasing scientific research, not merely anecdotes, suggesting that the virus attenuates and weakens over multiple replications:

 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.06.137604v1

 

3. Hospitals in most areas are not being overrun, allowing people to receive the care they need. This is not merely down to social distancing, but also a mix of reason 2 and improved hygiene practices, as well as the wearing of masks to cut down viral loads. 

 

4. Treatment has become more appropriate and targeted as we better understand the effects of the virus. New treatments appear all the time. 

 

5. Nursing home environments have been the hardest hit populations but, sadly, those numbers are limited and are eventually culled. Once COVID-19 rips through the most vulnerable part of the population, there is nowhere for daily death totals to go but down. 

 

6. Vector exhaustion eventually kicks in within more socially mobile groups, making the virus spread more slowly throughout a region. This sounds like a similar process to herd immunity, but it's limited to only people who, for instance, use the same train line every day, or frequent the same bars. We're still a long way from herd immunity. A vaccine will almost certainly be available before we reach that point. 

 

Out of these 6 reasons, some of them could be impacted by reopening, but some of them will not be. It's likely that deaths will tick up a bit in the fall, but there are sound reasons to believe that it won't be comparable to what NYC experienced in early April. 

Edited by Bacon
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Most disturbing part of this is that covid can also damage the organs of asymptomatic carriers without them realizing they have it.

 

 

 

 

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I've got some ladies, regulars in my station, they'll wait for a table if I'm full...

Lil came in & picked up her order the other day, when I bagged it I knew it was hers, so I went halfway up the dining room to say hi...she was sans mask, giving me a little "what for" about why our dining room isn't open. Last thing I would have expected. 

I've worked out a speech of sorts...that we would be "devastated" if even one guest were to become ill after dining here, whether our fault or not. 

She even balked at that. The Southern Dixie Lesbian Mafia has changed. 😡

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Posted (edited)

As I said in the re-opening thread:

 

This study is getting a lot of talk, and not a lot of scrutiny. 

 

The data appears to imply that people who are infected and REMAIN asymptomatic do not contribute significantly to the spread of this virus.  This is a retrospective analysis, with the benefit of hindsight.  This does not say the same thing about people who are presymptomatic, meaning those who are shedding significant amount of virus before the start of symptoms.  There is a lot of data suggesting significant viral shedding, and infectivity, in the 24-48 hours before symptom onset, among those who ultimately develop symptoms.  

 

Since we have no way of knowing who, among the newly infected, will ultimately fall into the symptomatic or asymptomatic category, this study should not, in any way, change our approach. 

 

Edited by bcl05
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1 minute ago, FrFan said:

 

To me, this says we need to invest in fixing their credibility, because leaving every country on an island to figure it out for themselves is worse (results speak for themselves).

 

Global pandemic response should be in some way globally coordinated, we lucky the death rate of this virus isnt higher. This is a warning shot if ever there was one.

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5 hours ago, visionary said:

Most disturbing part of this is that covid can also damage the organs of asymptomatic carriers without them realizing they have it.

 

 

 

 

 

OK, clearly the WHO screwed up when they said this just a couple of days ago:

 

Quote

“From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”

 

Meanwhile:

 

Quote

In an interview with TIME following the press briefing, Van Kerkhove said she did not mean to suggest that asymptomatic people cannot spread COVID-19. “I did not say that asymptomatic cases cannot transmit; they can,” Van Kerkhove says. “The question is, do they? And if they do, how often is that happening?”

 

Van Kerkhove says there’s not yet a clear answer, but the WHO’s analyses suggest symptomatic individuals are responsible for most coronavirus transmission.

 

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The WHO screwed up the communications, but the paper is really rather nuanced and interesting, but is not actionable.  

 

Again, the newly reported research shows that people who are infected and REMAIN ASYMPTOMATIC are less infectious than asymptomatic infected people who go on to develop symptoms later.  There is a lot of investigation looking at people who remain asymptomatic to try and understand why.  

 

So the terminology here is important.  Asymptomatic (in this paper) indicates those patients who remain asymptomatic through the entire course of their infection.  Those people don't seem to be very infectious.  Presymptomatic patients (those who are infected, feel fine today, but will feel sick in a day or two) are clearly highly infectious and a major source of viral spread.  

 

This is one paper, and who knows if its just data noise or a real finding.  Either way, since we have no way of anticipating who amongst the newly infected will end up in which group (symptomatic or not), I don't see how this finding is actionable at all.  

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

The WHO screwed up the communications, but the paper is really rather nuanced and interesting, but is not actionable.  

 

 

 

While I agree with you, screwing up the communications is problematic.  Outside of medical professionals such as yourself, most people aren't going to read the paper.  So if people take away the wrong message, and act on it, then it could lead to more spread.

 

You already saw evidence of how this could be misinterpreted in the Re-opening of the Economy thread.

 

 

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According to the CDC, an internet panel surveyed 502 people last month.

The survey also said that 18% said they used it on their skin while 10% said they sprayed the products on their bodies.

Then there are the 4% of people surveyed who admitted to drinking or gargling bleach and other disinfectant solutions.

 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, PCS said:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

Then there are the 4% of people surveyed who admitted to drinking or gargling bleach and other disinfectant solutions.

 

Thanks Trump!

Edited by China
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20 minutes ago, PCS said:
Bleach use

 

 

My mind can't even process people actually doing that. I don't want to make fun of anyone that has actual mental health issues that did that, but I will make fun of all Trump supporters that did that dumb ****ing ****. 

Edited by Hersh
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Well for some perhaps it was a legitimate mistake:

 

Gin Bottles Containing Hand Sanitizer Sold to Public In Coronavirus Mix-Up

 

A gin distillery in Australia has issued a recall after it accidentally shipped gin bottles containing hand sanitizer, according to the Apollo Bay Distillery outside Melbourne. The gin distillery had previously converted some of its facility to hand sanitizer production to help combat the coronavirus pandemic.

 

“The product is labelled as gin, however it is not gin,” the company said in a statement published to Facebook. “The bottles are not correctly sealed, they can be identified as having no shrink wrap seal.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

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