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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Dan T. said:

He's been to golf courses 251 times since his inauguration, with direct evidence of him playing at least 119 times.  Pro golfers would be jealous of his time on the links. **** him.

He’s smacked more balls these last four years than Lindsey Graham’s chin.

Edited by Sacks 'n' Stuff
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Why we might not get a coronavirus vaccine

 

It would be hard to overstate the importance of developing a vaccine to Sars-CoV-2 – it’s seen as the fast track to a return to normal life. That’s why the health secretary, Matt Han****, said the UK was “throwing everything at it”.

 

But while trials have been launched and manufacturing deals already signed – Oxford University is now recruiting 10,000 volunteers for the next phase of its research – ministers and their advisers have become noticeably more cautious in recent days.


Earlier this week, England’s deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam said the words nobody wanted to hear: “We can’t be sure we will get a vaccine.”

 

But he was right to be circumspect.

 

Vaccines are simple in principle but complex in practice. The ideal vaccine protects against infection, prevents its spread, and does so safely. But none of this is easily achieved, as vaccine timelines show.

 

More than 30 years after scientists isolated HIV, the virus that causes Aids, we have no vaccine. The dengue fever virus was identified in 1943, but the first vaccine was approved only last year, and even then amid concerns it made the infection worse in some people. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps. It took four years.

 

Scientists have worked on coronavirus vaccines before, so are not starting from scratch. Two coronaviruses have caused lethal outbreaks before, namely Sars and Mers, and vaccine research went ahead for both. But none have been licensed, partly because Sars fizzled out and Mers is regional to the Middle East. The lessons learned will help scientists create a vaccine for Sars-CoV-2, but there is still an awful lot to learn about the virus.

 

A chief concern is that coronaviruses do not tend to trigger long-lasting immunity. About a quarter of common colds are caused by human coronaviruses, but the immune response fades so rapidly that people can become reinfected the next year.

 

Researchers at Oxford University recently analysed blood from recovered Covid-19 patients and found that levels of IgG antibodies – those responsible for longer-lasting immunity – rose steeply in the first month of infection but then began to fall again.

 

Last week, scientists at Rockefeller University in New York found that most people who recovered from Covid-19 without going into hospital did not make many killer antibodies against the virus.

 

“That’s what is particularly challenging,” says Stanley Perlman, a veteran coronavirus researcher at the University of Iowa. “If the natural infection doesn’t give you that much immunity except when it’s a severe infection, what will a vaccine do? It could be better, but we don’t know.” If a vaccine only protects for a year, the virus will be with us for some time.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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3 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I can't tell where you stand (tough to read sarcasm)...but I really hope that everyone who won't leave their home for months for this virus treat the next emergency similarly. I am NOT discounting the tragedy of any singular death, but it's bizarre to me how COVID deaths are met with people punching a hole in their hats but we don't seem to react this way when the day-to-day things are happening. Should we all lock down this coming winter to avoid even one flu death? Isn't one too many for anyone to selfishly go skiing, head to work, or take their son to his basketball game? 

Well, day-to-day things are calculated ones. You know at something like 98% rate how many will get infected, seriously ill that will require assistance, and sadly death every year. Societies, politicians, are designing our healthcare system to be able to handle this and not get swarmed and crumble in front of it.

 

If our healthcare system wasn't able to handle all those "day-to-day things" like flu every year, you'd have that situation happening every year. And it may very well happen until this thing is under control. That's why it is totally different. 

 

It's not much about death counts or whatever, it's about making sure your healthcare system can handle it, can absorb the hit and stay upright. Because that's what a country is here for, protect its citizens. If it ever fails for whatever reason then the government have a huge problem. Lock down, quarantine, whatever you call this. That was done to protect the health system first and foremost. It helped saved life, but it allows hospitals and everything that goes with it to keep afloat through the storm. 

 

If a government isn't able to protect its citizen, feed them, it never ends up good for that government. And it seems Bolsonaro will soon learn this the hard way.

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It appears the St Dispatch Editorial Board has uncovered yet another of the Trump's administration's lies. This one is about the Obama administration not leaving any PPE and other materials needed to respond to a pandemic. We already know there was a playbook left. Moscow Mitch even had to admit that. 

 

But it seems that when the administration offered it's 2020 budget proposal, there were $102.9M in cuts because the Trump administration at the time stated the Obama administration left them everything they needed for a pandemic. Here is the key statement: 

 

But the newspaper said a chart provided by the Trump administration with the (2020) budget shows that by 2016 ― Obama’s final year in office ― the nation’s public health emergency preparedness was at between 98% and 100% by every key measure.

“That’s by the Trump administration’s own assessment,” the Post-Dispatch said. “If the cupboard was bare, it’s because Trump swept it clean.”

 

Here is the link: https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/trump-obama-pandemic-budget-cuts-085217775.html

 

In fairness, it is possible that there was plenty of PPE and other resources for known potential pandemics and that the Covid-19 required materials not known. But that's not what trump said. He said they left the shelves empty. That they started with nothing. Clearly a huge lie.

 

I have not been able to confirm this anywhere else but it does make sense. As I said we know there was a playbook. We also know a team had been identified to address a pandemic including a scientist in China's CDC through WHO that was dismantled by trump. What does not make sense is for the Obama admin to go through all that trouble and then do nothing to restock the shelves of physical equipment needed. 

 

If this proves to be true, Biden and Dems everywhere need to hit this hard. Not only did he cut the pandemic response budget he lied about equipment available, yet still did not use his executive powers to get those materials needed until it was already too late. 

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14 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

Well, day-to-day things are calculated ones. You know at something like 98% rate how many will get infected, seriously ill that will require assistance, and sadly death every year. Societies, politicians, are designing our healthcare system to be able to handle this and not get swarmed and crumble in front of it.

 

If our healthcare system wasn't able to handle all those "day-to-day things" like flu every year, you'd have that situation happening every year. And it may very well happen until this thing is under control. That's why it is totally different. 

 

It's not much about death counts or whatever, it's about making sure your healthcare system can handle it, can absorb the hit and stay upright. Because that's what a country is here for, protect its citizens. If it ever fails for whatever reason then the government have a huge problem. Lock down, quarantine, whatever you call this. That was done to protect the health system first and foremost. It helped saved life, but it allows hospitals and everything that goes with it to keep afloat through the storm. 

 

If a government isn't able to protect its citizen, feed them, it never ends up good for that government. And it seems Bolsonaro will soon learn this the hard way.

 

Yes, and we locked down states since early-March (I think) in order to give the health care system a chance to ramp up. Aren't we to a point now where we can let it operate?

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9 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Yes, and we locked down states since early-March (I think) in order to give the health care system a chance to ramp up. Aren't we to a point now where we can let it operate?

 

You think our health care system has "ramped up"?  

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8 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

You think our health care system has "ramped up"?  

I think the locations we were originally considered about have much more awareness and equipment to handle sick people than they did in February and March. And my understanding was THAT was one of the primary reasons for the stay-at-home orders. 

 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Yes, and we locked down states since early-March (I think) in order to give the health care system a chance to ramp up. Aren't we to a point now where we can let it operate?

 

We?  It was done on a state by state basis.  Often in direct opposition to the President’s Twitter account.

 

You really think Arkansas and Alabama have spent the last 6 weeks legitimately “ramping up” for a worst case scenario?  Cause I would be very skeptical of that assertion.

Edited by TryTheBeal!
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smart people not bothering to really do critical thinking on a matter is very very common

 

a few years ago i ran out of much of my stock of patience for people who are too lazy-brained to routinely challenge their own arguments thoroughly before they toss them out in disagreeing with or questioning others....usually it results in "forcing" (but in reality you have to volunteer)) what is usually a chain of "explanations" that accomplish zip and shouldn't need to be done

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

I think the locations we were originally considered about have much more awareness and equipment to handle sick people than they did in February and March. And my understanding was THAT was one of the primary reasons for the stay-at-home orders. 

 

 

So your argument is that NYC (which locked down in defiance of the GOP, and is still locked down), has somehow increased their ability to handle things.  And therefore Georgia and Arkansas and Texas and Florida should start trying to host spring break parties and RNC conventions?  

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27 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Yes, and we locked down states since early-March (I think) in order to give the health care system a chance to ramp up. Aren't we to a point now where we can let it operate?

 

Are we? Do you have any data to show that "we" are ready? "We" meaning each state individually since we do not have a comprehensive detailed approach from the federal government as a template - well they gave guidelines but then said to ignore them - so there is that. 

 

I personally have not seen any evidence that the time closed has been used to reopen in the safest manner possible. 

 

1. Do we have enough testing? 

2. Do we have clear guidelines as to how to evaluate the tests as to identify areas of outbreak quickly enough for containment? 

3. What is the containment plan once testing shows there is an outbreak? 

 

These are the bare minimum questions that need to be addressed. I have not seen answers from anyone. Right now the approach seems to be well looks like the worst is over so let's reopen and just hope for the best. That is reckless at the least if not genocide at it's worst. 

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6 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

smart people not bothering to really do critical thinking on a matter is very very common

 

a few years ago i ran out of much of my stock of patience for people who are too lazy-brained to routinely challenge their own arguments thoroughly before they toss them out in disagreeing with or questioning others....usually it results in "forcing" (but in reality you have to volunteer)) what is usually a chain of "explanations" that accomplish zip and shouldn't need to be done

 

I feel like thats a large part of our problem (understanding that a much larger part being left out of this intentionally by me) 

 

Lots of smart people haven't learned or been taught to challenge their own ideas. It actually seems the opposite  - that they were taught to defend their ideas to prove how smart they are. There are enough smart people in this country to change it but with everyone looking for alternative facts to defend themselves it just clouds things too much for the rest of us dummies to know whats really happening out here. 

 

Thats a tangent but its funny you bring it up. I was just talking to my mother about how she taught me to challenge myself and listen to people and being able to do so lets me fake intelligence lol

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Sorry everyone...I'll back out. I understand it's a scary situation in some ways. But I also believe that we have overreacted in many ways too. Do I have all the information to KNOW if Alabama or Florida has stockpiled ventilators? Of course not. 

 

I just can't completely understand how the only correct answer is to stay closed, shut down schools, etc. for months on end when we have medical capacity to treat those who might fall ill. And no, I'm not some jerk who doesn't care if people die...I just have to believe there's a better option out there. 

 

But like I said, I'll see myself out of this discussion because I'm clearly in the minority. 

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20 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I can't tell where you stand (tough to read sarcasm)...but I really hope that everyone who won't leave their home for months for this virus treat the next emergency similarly. I am NOT discounting the tragedy of any singular death, but it's bizarre to me how COVID deaths are met with people punching a hole in their hats but we don't seem to react this way when the day-to-day things are happening. Should we all lock down this coming winter to avoid even one flu death? Isn't one too many for anyone to selfishly go skiing, head to work, or take their son to his basketball game? 


when the flu starts killing ~100k in 2.5 months, yes we should start locking down like this. 

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Posted (edited)

As of right now, COVID-19 is 60x more deadly than the flu was last year, and that's with 2 months of stay-at-home orders in place, social distancing, and people wearing masks.

 

 

Edited by Califan007
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1 minute ago, Califan007 said:

As of right now, COVID-19 is 60x more deadly than the flu was last year, and that's with 2 months of stay-at-home orders in place, social distancing, and people wearing masks.

 

 

And you’re comparing ~3 months of covid to 12 months of the flu (which we have vaccines for, tamaflu, and known “seasons” to prepare)

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35 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

I just can't completely understand how the only correct answer is to stay closed, shut down schools, etc. for months on end when we have medical capacity to treat those who might fall ill. And no, I'm not some jerk who doesn't care if people die...I just have to believe there's a better option out there. 

I don't really see many people here or anywhere really that believe that is the only answer.  The primary issue is that all of this is a huge cluster**** as a result of the administration.  Of course there are others on the hook for this as well, but crap rolls downhill.  If the president treated this like the public health crisis with economic impacts it is vs. an economic crisis amidst a public health crisis from the start, I'm certain we would be in a better place right now with less in-fighting and more common sense prevailing.

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We have to maintain and foster economic activity to some degree.  State tax revenue funds our police, our fire depts, our utility infrastructure and many, many other essential municipal services.

 

As we do this, we have to acknowledge the terrible outcomes that this disease can manifest if left unchecked.  So, schools/packed pubs/concerts and especially churches (they pay no taxes) must remain closed or highly regulated.

 

And we will do this tap-dance until there is an effective treatment/vaccine or until the virus mutates in a way that gives us a break.  There are no easy answers or solutions...none.  No amount of inflexible political bluster will make this reality go away.

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Just now, Llevron said:

I dont understand why people want to compare this to the flu. 

The fact of the matter is many, many people don't know of anyone that has been really sick from covid, much less died.  The trump clan doesn't believe the news and thinks all the doctors and scientists are in the bag for the left to destroy the economy.  This will not hit home until people start to experience covid close to home, where their family members, friends and neighbors come down with it and need to be hospitalized.  With things starting to re-open. the politicization of masks, and so on, that time is sure to come within the next 30 days most likely.

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