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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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Fairfax County only saw 44 new cases of Covid today, only 2 hospitalizations and 1 death. I don't really have faith that weekend numbers indicate anything specific but I hope we keep trending this way.

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Posted (edited)

Have I missed really big news?  

 

Way back when, I thought the mortality for this disease was like 1.5%.  Percentage of people who got infected, who died.  

 

And here, I was under the impression that lately, we'd been testing a lot more people.  And discovering that the number infected was much larger than the old numbers.  (Which we all knew was the case, but now it's nice to have confirmation.)  And that therefore, the morbidity is actually lower than the old number.  (Since we now had a much larger "infected" number, for around the same number of deaths.)  

 

So I went to Worldometer, to see what the new mortality for the US is.  To see how much it had gone down.  

 

And now it's 5.9%????

 

(99K deaths / 1.7M cases.)

 

Is that real?  I thought that only 1 in 20 (5%) even needed hospitalization.  Is this thing really killing 6% of those infected?  (And that's without even factoring in the fact that a chunk of the people being counted as "infected" haven't died yet.)

 

Have the numbers changed that much, and in that direction, and I didn't notice?

Edited by Larry
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40 minutes ago, Larry said:

Have the numbers changed that much, and in that direction, and I didn't notice?

Are the numbers accurate ? How many people got tested ? I believe many cases haven't been reported too. If few people are tested, the fatality rate immediately seems very high.

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2 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Are the numbers accurate ? How many people got tested ? I believe many cases haven't been reported too. If few people are tested, the fatality rate immediately seems very high.

 

It certainly seems logical to me that more testing would lead to a larger "infected" number, but not so much a larger "death" number.  Net result - smaller mortality rates.  

 

But I thought I'd read that that effect had already happened (at least some).  That the mortality numbers were already lower than the early numbers.  

 

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15 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

bodes well for the all idiots hitting the pools and beaches this weekend

 

No clue why people are so fine with getting this. I'm more certain than ever that I had it, and I was miserable (and I'm not an at risk person). These people are insane

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

No clue why people are so fine with getting this.

 

The fact that they're getting lied to for political purposes is probably a big factor.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

The fact that they're getting lied to for political purposes is probably a big factor.  

 

A lot of people know the truth and don't want to accept it.

 

A lot of folks are gambling if something does go south, their body will win.

 

A lot of folks in denial on whether they will be prioritized with an overrun health care system.

 

If Trump gets it, he'll get whatever treatment we beat out of those little green men at Roswell, so that's probably big reason he's not worried about getting it himself. His own ward at a military hospital if necessary, Borris coming out fine made it worse (not that id rather him die, but that might of snapped Trump out of it if he did).

Edited by Renegade7
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2 hours ago, Larry said:

 

And now it's 5.9%????

 

(99K deaths / 1.7M cases.)

 

Is that real?  I thought that only 1 in 20 (5%) even needed hospitalization.  Is this thing really killing 6% of those infected?  (And that's without even factoring in the fact that a chunk of the people being counted as "infected" haven't died yet.)

 

Have the numbers changed that much, and in that direction, and I didn't notice?

Yeah, that's how it is. Well, countries with good medical care systems have got the death rate around or under 1%

 

I believe your number is slightly backward. 20% of infected would need hospitalization, 5% would need to be in the ICU.

55 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

If Trump gets it, he'll get whatever treatment we beat out of those little green men at Roswell, so that's probably big reason he's not worried about getting it himself. His own ward at a military hospital if necessary, Borris coming out fine made it worse (not that id rather him die, but that might of snapped Trump out of it if he did).

It's all for show. Everyone around him has to wear a mask off camera. HIs staff gets tested daily. If he thought this thing is ain't no thang, that **** wouldn't happen.

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3 hours ago, Mr. Sinister said:

He ain't getting reelected.

 

 

3 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

DeWine is a good dude, so yeah...He’s probably gonna get “RINO-ed”

 

 

Won't matter...right now he's popular af:

 

"Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is at 80 percent overall, including 92 percent among Democratic leaners and 74 percent among Republican leaners."

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/19/49-50-governors-have-better-coronavirus-numbers-than-trump/

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I’ll do the math on that video...

 

Lets say 80% are young and very low risk.  Other 20% are 45+ and/or have assorted comorbidities.  Let’s say 1500 people in that shot.

 

IF, big IF, there are 5 asymptomatic carriers there...cause these folks aren’t completely brain dead.  Nobody is showing up there with a 101 fever, hacking all over the place.  Factor in some breezy sunshine and warm temps.  Then those five will infect say 100 people.  Of that 100, you’ll get 90 that fight it off, 10 that go to the hospital and 2 that die.

 

Now that’s not good...at all.  But, it’s not an apocalyptic event as a special occasion/holiday deal...especially if all the attendees spend the next 8-10 days masked up.

 

The issue is doing this kind of thing all day, every day all summer long.  That 2% is gonna add up quick.  

 

If I had to guess, I’d say that the math of the “new normal” is gonna put a damper on pool season pretty quick.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

IF, big IF, there are 5 asymptomatic carriers there...cause these folks aren’t completely brain dead.  Nobody is showing up there with a 101 fever, hacking all over the place.

 

I'll take that bet.  

 

3 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

especially if all the attendees spend the next 8-10 days masked up.

 

Odds that a single person who goes to that event, spends the next 10 days self-quarantining?

 

4 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

If I had to guess, I’d say that the math of the “new normal” is gonna put a damper on pool season pretty quick.

 

 

They didn't learn from the first 100K dead.  Odds that they learn from the second?  

Edited by Larry
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

I'll take that bet.  

 

Danger is my middle name.

 

1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

Odds that a single person who goes to that event, spends the next 10 days self-quarantining?

 

Zero.  But they don’t have to Self-quarantine.  Just wear your mask, dig in at home/work and chill.  Especially if you start feeling symptoms.  “Super Spreaders” are fairly rare, I think.

 

1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

They didn't learn from the first 100K dead.  Odds that they learn from the second?  

 

I’m assuming that the Ozarks pool is in Arkansas, or some such.  So, that 100K hasn’t really touched them at all.  Next 100K could be very revelatory for Ozarks Party Guy.

 

Speaking of Zero, the broader point is this.  The chances that 100,000 horny, 20-something Arkansas-ians?? are gonna spend all Summer social distancing because Dr. Fauci says so is, in fact, absolutely Zero.

 

They’re going to have to learn the hard way.  We all know it’s true.

Edited by TryTheBeal!
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24 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

They’re going to have to learn the hard way.  We all know it’s true.

 

You need a brain and to use it to learn something.

Some people just never learn.

 

Never.

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17 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said:

It's really not that big of a deal unless you are an at risk person. In which case you should quarantine yourself.

 

There's a kinda informal rule in Tailgate.  Sarcasm is supposed to be in Comic Sans font.  

 

Otherwise somebody might think you're really this . . . something.  

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1 hour ago, TryTheBeal! said:

I’ll do the math on that video...

 

Lets say 80% are young and very low risk.  Other 20% are 45+ and/or have assorted comorbidities.  Let’s say 1500 people in that shot.

 

IF, big IF, there are 5 asymptomatic carriers there...cause these folks aren’t completely brain dead.  Nobody is showing up there with a 101 fever, hacking all over the place.  Factor in some breezy sunshine and warm temps.  Then those five will infect say 100 people.  Of that 100, you’ll get 90 that fight it off, 10 that go to the hospital and 2 that die.

 

Now that’s not good...at all.  But, it’s not an apocalyptic event as a special occasion/holiday deal...especially if all the attendees spend the next 8-10 days masked up.

 

The issue is doing this kind of thing all day, every day all summer long.  That 2% is gonna add up quick.  

 

If I had to guess, I’d say that the math of the “new normal” is gonna put a damper on pool season pretty quick.

You left out how many people the 100 will infect. Or what age they will be. And if they aren't wearing a mask there (or even being there), I'm thinking they aren't wearing a mask anywhere. Those people don't believe they are going to get sick.

 

To be fair, 5 asymptomatic cases might be high, but the idea that some idiot who has a cold is going to miss out on drinking and chasing the opposite sex on one of the three big summer holiday weekends is optimistic.

 

I used to live in KC. Lake of the Ozarks is going to pull a lot of people from KC and St Louis. There's a very low incidence in the local area but I suspect that will change after this weekend.

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