China

BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, China said:

 

Of course the problem with that is that you have to have about 70% infection to gain herd immunity.  With a 1.5% fatality rate that means about 3.5 million people in the US would die.  This is a problem with our education system: people don't understand basic concepts in math and science.


it would be an interesting question for those advocating no distancing and herd immunity how many deaths they would accept as an ‘acceptable’ trade off.

 

Based on how limited testing has been here and fatality rates in countries where more comprehensive testing has taken place, I could believe that more than 10 million have been infected here (rather than the 1 million positive tests we see reported) and the fatality rate for the actual infected population then is around 0.5%, but that still gives more than a million deaths if it is mostly unchecked.

 

Edited by Corcaigh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The hell..."Tribes" is racist? That's a new one to me lol. If a Nation has land in reservation or trust status the state doesnt have much or any power over it, technically its Federal land. This is why Oklahoma Casinos are starting to open and no one can stop them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is nothing more than a complete and total failure of the Trump admin at this point. The time they needed to erect public health infrastructure and put contact tracing into place is gone and the economy is in shambles. The economy will continue to be in shambles because people will not have the confidence to return to normal behavior since the virus outbreak wasn’t contained. 
 

Developing nation states are managing this better than us. 
 

 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, ShredSkins said:

The hell..."Tribes" is racist? That's a new one to me lol. If a Nation has land in reservation or trust status the state doesnt have much or any power over it, technically its Federal land. This is why Oklahoma Casinos are starting to open and no one can stop them.

 

<mod edit ginormous off-topic lure>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every single country here is led by authoritarian conservative leaders.

 


Stupid people do stupid things and then blame others. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 
 
4
 Advanced issues found
 
🙅
1
30 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

This is nothing more than a complete and total failure of the Trump admin at this point. The time they needed to erect public health infrastructure and put contact tracing into place is gone and the economy is in shambles. The economy will continue to be in shambles because people will not have the confidence to return to normal behavior since the virus outbreak wasn’t contained. 
 

Developing nation states are managing this better than us. 
 

 

I still think that trump is actively trying to kill Americans. Nothing that he has done indicates that he wants to protect us, only kill us.

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

 

<mod edit ginormous off-topic lure>

 

 

Didn't consider the "lure" aspect lol...

 

 

giphy.gif

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, Trump is not sitting in a White House dungeon, playing a pipe organ while chortling over the latest death statistics.  

 

(Although I wouldn't be completely shocked if, say, Paul Ryan wasn't looking at "if Covid kills off half of the nursing home population of the country, imagine how much that will cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.")

 

Yes, I think it's a complete fact that his reaction to all this is "Why is this happening to me?"  That his concern at every single point in this process has been 

 

1)  How to keep it from hurting his reelection.

2)  And opportunities for corruption.  

 

The only way "reducing deaths" is even on his list at all, is if he thinks it might contribute to #1.  

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Larry said:

No, Trump is not sitting in a White House dungeon, playing a pipe organ while chortling over the latest death statistics.  

 

(Although I wouldn't be completely shocked if, say, Paul Ryan wasn't looking at "if Covid kills off half of the nursing home population of the country, imagine how much that will cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.")

 

Yes, I think it's a complete fact that his reaction to all this is "Why is this happening to me?"  That his concern at every single point in this process has been 

 

1)  How to keep it from hurting his reelection.

2)  And opportunities for corruption.  

 

The only way "reducing deaths" is even on his list at all, is if he thinks it might contribute to #1.  

 

 

I also think it's just a headshaking level of ignorance, both willful and innate. He doesn't understand and purposefully doesn't want to know.

 

That, plus Trump appears to have a conspiracy theorist's mindset anyway...no matter how many valid and proven facts you present a conspiracy theorist, they will rationalize it away in order to continue believing what they believe and stay the course.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Corcaigh said:


it would be an interesting question for those advocating no distancing and herd immunity how many deaths they would accept as an ‘acceptable’ trade off.

 

Based on how limited testing has been here and fatality rates in countries where more comprehensive testing has taken place, I could believe that more than 10 million have been infected here (rather than the 1 million positive tests we see reported) and the fatality rate for the actual infected population then is around 0.5%, but that still gives more than a million deaths.

If you are going to raise the number of cases based on lack of testing (which I think is valid), why wouldn't you increase the amount of related deaths also?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, zskins said:

 

Totally not true. Let's say it is 105 degrees outside. I cough and some droplets land on a hot surface. Within minutes the virus dies. Hopefully no one has touched that surface area and swiped with mouth with it though before the virus has died.

 

But one should still wear a mask and some gloves to be on the safe side. ;)

 

 

Did you read the article? : /

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-summer-temperature-warm-hot-spread-study-pandemic-a9506201.html?utm_term=Autofeed&amp;utm_medium=Social&amp;utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1588971997

 

Quote

Dr Peter Juni, of the University of Toronto, said in a press release that the team found little or no link between infection spread and temperature or latitude, and only a weak association with humidity.

 

Note to self: links to Reddit are assumed fake even if they are to actual news articles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

If you are going to raise the number of cases based on lack of testing (which I think is valid), why wouldn't you increase the amount of related deaths also?

 

Yes, I do think that there was a bit of lack of testing causing the death numbers to be artificially low.  

 

Example:  That Seattle nursing home that was one of the first outbreaks?  They had 26 deaths in a month.  But back then, the rule was that you had to be admitted to a hospital, or you couldn't be tested.  Only 13 of their patients got sent to the hospital.  The other went from "no symptoms" to "dead" so quick they didn't go to the hospital.  Therefore, not tested.  Therefore, not counted in the "official death count".  

 

But I don't think that's the case any more.  As I understand it, nowdays, doctors can list a death as being Covid, without actually having a confirmed test.  Just his medical opinion, based on the patient.  

 

Therefore, my opinion is that, if we were to test 10 times as many people,we might have 10 times as many "officially infected:, but we're not going to have 10 times as many deaths.  Maybe there'd be some that wouldn't have counted, without a test.  But not 10 times as many.  

Edited by Larry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

If you are going to raise the number of cases based on lack of testing (which I think is valid), why wouldn't you increase the amount of related deaths also?

 

The death numbers may be under-counted somewhat but in most cases I suspect if someone is critically ill they are ending up in hospital and getting tested. Anecdotally I know at least twenty people who were sick to varying degrees in January/February/ early March, had multiple symptoms but put it down to a strain of the flu even though they had a vaccination, or really bad allergies. They never were ill enough to go to hospital or given a COVID-19 test.

 

 

Edited by Corcaigh
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Which politician has run the numbers? If COVID-19 disproportionately kills the elderly, how much of a saving to social security and medicare would be achieved if the virus went unchecked?

 

This reminds me of this scene discussing the impact of smoking from brilliant UK TV series Yes Minister (which dealt with politicians and civil servants).

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

Therefore, my opinion is that, if we were to test 10 times as many people,we might have 10 times as many "officially infected:, but we're not going to have 10 times as many deaths.  Maybe there'd be some that wouldn't have counted, without a test.  But not 10 times as many.  

 

This is how I feel as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

If you are going to raise the number of cases based on lack of testing (which I think is valid), why wouldn't you increase the amount of related deaths also?


We can get a gauge on fatalities based on excess mortality data. We do pretty good record keeping on deaths. 
 

The spread of infection based on serological surveys seems to be 10-20x officially counted cases. So if the US has 1.2 million recorded cases right now, we probably have really had between 10-20 million infected already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, maybe another day then Home Depot. So many people out today here in MD.

IMG_20200509_135300.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep. That's a weekend at the big box stores. If one goes on the weekend,it's recommended to go first thing in the a.m. or wait for the mornings on the weekdays before things really get busy. Depending on area,probably a limit of 100 to 150 people in the store at a time.  I don't know if it's going to be national,regional,or district wide,but be aware that Home Depots are instituting mandatory wearing of masks by everyone in store starting between today and Monday. Just a heads up. :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, PCS said:

Yep. That's a weekend at the big box stores. If one goes on the weekend,it's recommended to go first thing in the a.m. or wait for the mornings on the weekdays before things really get busy. Depending on area,probably a limit of 100 to 150 people in the store at a time.  I don't know if it's going to be national,regional,or district wide,but be aware that Home Depots are instituting mandatory wearing of masks by everyone in store starting between today and Monday. Just a heads up. :)

 

Couple of weeks back they were only letting in 100 people at a time. They had a person on the exit taking a count of how many people have exited. It wasn't much of a line. I got in pretty quick and was wearing the gloves and the mask as always. Today the line was wrapping around the building... longest i have seen so far. I will try to hit it early tomorrow morning as the weather is nice and i need to get some stuff for the yard. 

 

Edited by zskins

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.