China

BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

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But lost in the hype over the fast new vaccines is the reality that technologies such as the one being developed by Moderna are still unproven. No one, in fact, knows whether they will work.

Moderna makes “mRNA vaccines”—basically, it embeds the genetic instructions for a component of a virus into a nanoparticle, which can then be injected into a person. Although new methods like Moderna’s are lightning fast to prepare, they have never led to a licensed vaccine for sale.

What’s more, despite the fast start, any vaccine needs to prove that it’s safe and that it protects people from infection. Those steps are what lock in the inconvenient 18-month time line Fauci cited. While a safety test might take only three months, the vaccine would then need to be given to hundreds or thousands of people at the core of an outbreak to see if recipients are protected. That could take a year no matter what technology is employed.

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“You wouldn’t have a vaccine. You would have a vaccine to go into testing,” interjected Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Disease, who has advised six presidents, starting with Ronald Reagan during the HIV epidemic.

 “How long would that take?” Trump wanted to know.

“Like I have been telling you, a year to a year-and-a-half,” Fauci said. Trump said he liked the sound of two months a lot better.

oh boy

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The South Korea 10-minute testing kit looks like an antibody test. So it will only detect people who have started producing antibodies. That doesn’t capture a lot of early stage cases but it will still be a critical tool to see how widespread the virus was in a given population since it will also catch people who may have been asymptotic throughout the viral infection.

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India is looking more and more like the next hotspot.  Also take a good look at Indonesia and Malaysia.  Indonesia's death count at 10.  That's a big country with 100+ million people.

 

Now the question becomes, can we even open after a year?  I think we will be teleworking for a long while.

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Well, if a lot of jobs permanently transition to tele, that might not be a tragedy.  

 

Might.  "Tele" also equals "easily outsourced".  

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10 hours ago, CRobi21 said:

Also hearing rumors of a law enforced shutdown in MD for 2 weeks starting early next week. Mom or Tues. Only grocery store visits and Doctor appts will be permitted for people to be outside their homes..

 

From a "friend of the familys daughter who works in govt." We shall see.

Heard this same exact tihng ... March 10th.  

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2 minutes ago, Larry said:

Well, if a lot of jobs permanently transition to tele, that might not be a tragedy.  

 

Might.  "Tele" also equals "easily outsourced".  

 

Well, I think some habits will change for the foreseeable future.  I think restaurants are going to suffer.  I am wondering how Uber will hold on.  They are going bankrupt if you ask me.

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, redskins59 said:

India is looking more and more like the next hotspot.  Also take a good look at Indonesia and Malaysia.  Indonesia's death count at 10.  That's a big country with 100+ million people.

 

Now the question becomes, can we even open after a year?  I think we will be teleworking for a long while.

 

At some point long before a year is up the economy has to reopen for business. They have maybe a months tops.  Even then the lasting damage is going to be severe. After that, you won’t be teleworking, you won’t be working. The economy will collapse long before then. Hopefully there is enough trump bucks to go around (/s]..

 

I see they have stopped testing everyone... first step in reducing panic.

Edited by CousinsCowgirl84

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

You won’t be teleworking, you won’t be working. The economy will collapse long before then. Hopefully there is enough trump bucks to go around... 

 

I would think that my job is safer than anybody else's.  But even then, I am not sure.  I work  as a computational biologist.  The thing here is that a lot of lab folks (post-docs) have been told to telework.  If they can't do their experments, all they can do is just train.  In my case, I still have something to do.

 

I would think that even if there is a depression, the government would not cut NIH funding.  The problem we have today is a medical issue.

Edited by redskins59
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Posted (edited)

In order to pay you the government has to collect taxes from a functioning economy. I would suggest medial research and testing is a luxury and not a necessity in the case of a faltering government, which would likely be the case in a situation where every thing is closed a year from now... 

Edited by CousinsCowgirl84

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Y'know, used to be, I didn't believe in Satan.  He was on a list with vampires and ghosts and the Blob.  He was like Klingons - a boogyman who could always be counted upon to do the opposite of whatever Captain Kirk wanted, for no reason other than the fact that they're Bad Guys, and that's what Bad Guys do.  

 

I'm still not a religious person.  But damn, I sure do see Satan, everywhere I look.  

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4 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

In order to pay you the government has to collect taxes from a functioning economy. I would suggest medial research and testing is a luxury and not a necessity in the case of a faltering government, which would likely be the case in a situation where every thing is closed a year from now... 

 

I doubt medical funding of any kind will be cut, specially when we have a medical issue going on in the world.  The lab workers are still going to work, but they have been told to rotate for now.  

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We need to institute a global travel ban if this pandemic keeps growing in other parts of the world. Halt incoming traffic from all over the world indefinitely and the essential personnel who do come in need to be tested and screened at the airport. Quarantined until they are cleared. Only way to beat this back and open the economy if Africa, India, Southeast Asia are the next outbreak zones. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

We need to institute a global travel ban if this pandemic keeps growing in other parts of the world. Halt incoming traffic from all over the world indefinitely and the essential personnel who do come in need to be tested and screened at the airport. Quarantined until they are cleared. Only way to beat this back and open the economy if Africa, India, Southeast Asia are the next outbreak zones. 

 

We already know - it's going to affect the entire world.  

 

C'mon what's the odds of BOTH:

1)  Completely eliminating the virus from the US.

2)  And establishing a barrier around the entire country, that the virus can't get through?

 

Seems likely that it's going to become simply a part of the world's normal infectious "background noise".  Yeah, maybe someday it will become more like measles.  But that's not the way I'd bet right now.  

 

(Now, maybe things like travel bans make sense, when we're talking about places where the disease is surging, right now.  Just because a travel ban/screening won't be perfect, doesn't mean you just let people walk through customs after being in a country where 20% of the population's infected, right now.)

Edited by Larry

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31 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I see they have stopped testing everyone... i seem to remember suggesting there is no point in testing people if it doesn’t change the medical outcome.   I am glad the people in charge caught up.

 

To me that's a white flag policy borne out of the reality of testing shortage.  The sooner we can massively test everyone for active infection and exisitng antibodies, the sooner we can get back on our feet.  It's a reasonable policy now due to extreme shortage, but if they did that in a situation where testing was plentiful, it would be massively irresponsible.  Especially so where social distancing is voluntary and many people are flouting the recommendation.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, redskins59 said:

 

I doubt medical funding of any kind will be cut, specially when we have a medical issue going on in the world.  The lab workers are still going to work, but they have been told to rotate for now.  

 

I doubt it will as well, because we aren’t going to be sitting at our house a year from now.  But, if we are, that means a lot has gone terribly wrong.  Then i think we are struggling to meet the basic needs... food, security, basic medical care... in that scenario, the one you laid out, i doubt you are working.

Edited by CousinsCowgirl84

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Just now, Larry said:

 

We already know - it's going to affect the entire world.  

 

Seems likely that it's going to become simply a part of the world's normal infectious "background noise".  Yeah, maybe someday it will become more like measles.  But that's not the way I'd bet right now.  


We need to buy as much time as possible until anti-viral drugs and hopefully a vaccine are available. I think this can eventually be beat back like SARS-classic but it will take a Herculean scientific effort, a healthy dose of luck and likely some extreme policy measures like global travel bans. 

 

I’m mostly theorizing now but I doubt this virus will mutate new functions or radically change its nature. It’s currently transmitted  at a fairly stable rate and it’s not a mutation prone strain to begin with. There isn’t much selection pressure for it to change its infectiousness or lethality. That gives us time to develop a vaccine which if rolled out at speed, can make a huge difference.

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3 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

I doubt it will as well, because we aren’t going to be sitting at are house a year from now.  But, if we are, that means a lot has gone terribly wrong.  Then i think we are struggling to meet the basic needs... food, security, basic medical care... 

And this is where the "How do you see society playing out" thread will get interesting.  A lot of people will wish they had been more pro-2nd amendment. 

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11 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

I doubt it will as well, because we aren’t going to be sitting at our house a year from now.  But, if we are, that means a lot has gone terribly wrong.  Then i think we are struggling to meet the basic needs... food, security, basic medical care... 

ARE YOU NEW HERE? THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR DECADES...EVERYTHING IS GOING WRONG RIGHT NOW!!!

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14 hours ago, CRobi21 said:

 

Washington Co. MD here.

I work at Brook Lane bruv, it's been chaos all week. I keep waiting for things to get exponentially worse around these parts any moment. 

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, No Excuses said:


We need to buy as much time as possible until anti-viral drugs and hopefully a vaccine are available. I think this can eventually be beat back like SARS-classic but it will take a Herculean scientific effort, a healthy dose of luck and likely some extreme policy measures like global travel bans. 

 

SARS only reached single digits in European countries.  We're beyond that now.

 

This things is now global. 

 

Central and South America are next too.  Mexico has gone up from 48 to 241 cases in one day, and they don't have the resources or structure to track people.  It is in Brazil too, and it will travel.  It would take the rest of the world dumping a whole lot of resources into those countries to keep it from spreading, while the rest of the world is bracing for a depression.

Edited by PeterMP

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