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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Seeing a pattern of US not taking global pandemics seriously until at least one US case happens.  This almost assures whenever the big one happens it's going to be bad.


This has all happened pretty quickly. Pandemics aren’t easy to control and the success of keeping Ebola at bay contradicts what you’re saying. 

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2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Seeing a pattern of US not taking global pandemics seriously until at least one US case happens.  This almost assures whenever the big one happens it's going to be bad.

The only countries that have any hope of saving themselves from a massive pandemic would have a great health care system, relatively little inflowing traffic from abroad, and small easily sealed borders and leaders who act quickly to close off both.  The US isn’t any of that.  

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4 minutes ago, Destino said:

The only countries that have any hope of saving themselves from a massive pandemic would have a great health care system, relatively little inflowing traffic from abroad, and small easily sealed borders and leaders who act quickly to close off both.  The US isn’t any of that.  

Name a country that is?

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1 hour ago, No Excuses said:


This has all happened pretty quickly. Pandemics aren’t easy to control and the success of keeping Ebola at bay contradicts what you’re saying. 

 

Ebola is back, this time in the Congo, and isnt airbone.  It's now the second largest Ebola outbreak in history right after the recent one in West Africa. We waited until West Africa admitted it was going to get beyond their control and people that went to help came back to US with it before we devoted neccesary resources to keep it from taking over the continent. This one from China is possibly airborne with a fairly low fatality rate.  We are showing we wouldnt stand a chance with an airborne virus with a high fatality rate.

Edited by Renegade7
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31 minutes ago, Destino said:

The only countries that have any hope of saving themselves from a massive pandemic would have a great health care system, relatively little inflowing traffic from abroad, and small easily sealed borders and leaders who act quickly to close off both.  The US isn’t any of that.  

There are some baseline things we can do on a global standpoint to stand a fighting chance or at least say we did what we could. I dont know how honest this conversation is kept because I never hear about how more people died from the Spanish Flu then World War 1 that was happening at the same time about 100 years ago.  That's yesterday compared to the black plague. 

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37 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

We are showing we wouldnt stand a chance with an airborne virus with a high fatality rate.

 

The containment of Ebola is a major success of modern science and international action. The outbreaks are happening in one of the most volatile regions of the world, where this easily could have been a much worse crises. It's largely stayed out of major African cities and has not spread beyond the continent. Having an effective vaccine is a pretty good success story too.

 

No amount of preparation will successfully contain an airborne virus with a high fatality rate. If such a virus develops in a densely populated city, it would be nearly impossible to contain it before there are mass casualties, no matter how well prepared and funded government agencies are. There are some things you just can't fight against with our current technology. 

 

Now there are some things that can be done, like (a) maybe fund BARDA at higher levels or (b) allowing scientists to create deadly synthetic virus in labs so we know potential defense mechanisms against them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomedical_Advanced_Research_and_Development_Authority 

 

Both options have downsides. (a) likely won't be able to mount a rapid response against a catastrophic pandemic and (b) is a hail mary with serious biocontainment risks.

Edited by No Excuses
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5 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

 

The containment of Ebola is a major success of modern science and international action. The outbreaks are happening in one of the most volatile regions of the world, where this easily could have been a much worse crises. It's largely stayed out of major African cities and has not spread beyond the continent. Having an effective vaccine is a pretty good success story too.

 

In context of human history, sure coulda been worse. But 11,000 people died because of countries not wanting help until they admitted they couldnt handle it and US didnt force the issue until it got to that point.  If we going to make an arguement about modern technology being a factor, let's not let non-technical means be an additional reason to accept the situation would be impossible. 

 

Viruses evolve, we take a huge risk in the way we deal global pandemics by making non-technical excuses for why we would be screwed if it turned into something worse. I dont get what you mean by non major African cities, it nearly overran three different countries capitals.

 

5 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

No amount of preparation will successfully contain an airborne virus with a high fatality rate. If such a virus develops in a densely populated city, it would be nearly impossible to contain it before there are mass casualties, no matter how well prepared and funded government agencies are. There are some things you just can't fight against with our current technology. 

 

Serious question: is this being treated as something not worth trying because of how impossible it seems?  When talking about the extinction of the species, is what it is shouldnt be an acceptable answer, not saying you saying that, but that's like saying the goal shouldnt be to eradicate cancer because it's impossible. 

 

5 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Now there are some things that can be done, like (a) maybe fund BARDA at higher levels or (b) allowing scientists to create deadly synthetic virus in labs so we know potential defense mechanisms against them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomedical_Advanced_Research_and_Development_Authority 

 

Both options have downsides. (a) likely won't be able to mount a rapid response against a catastrophic pandemic and (b) is a hail mary with serious biocontainment risks.

 

Fair, I like the conversation versus some insinuating it's a waste of time, we screwed anyway. Not that you are saying that, but that's where I'm at with issues like that, some risks shouldnt be accepted regardless of how hard it would be to mitigate.  Go down swinging.

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22 hours ago, Destino said:

Media's really running with this one, but it doesn't seem to be all that terrifying.  Am I missing something?

That is exactly what they are doing. This will get sensationalized over the following days and weeks.  

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I've read that each year the new strains of the Flu vurus originate in China a good 4-6 months before they go worldwide.  They are mostly offshoots of an animal flu (due to the close living quarters) and its spread can be tracked back to that origin point.

 

Anything SARS like coming out of China must be paid attention too.

Edited by The Evil Genius
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33 minutes ago, visionary said:

If they aren't actually trying to deal with it long term or take care of people there...a lot of people may be dying.

Read up on the Spanish Flu. Very interesting in how that caronavirus developed and spread versus the normal spread (and why it became so deadly). Interesting note there are multiple strains of the same virus. The deadlier the strain the less likely it is to spread widely - Spanish flu was the exception: 

 

from wiki "....... This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.[76] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus.  ........"

Edited by nonniey
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10 minutes ago, visionary said:

If they aren't actually trying to deal with it long term or take care of people there...a lot of people may be dying.

Agreed, knowing China, entirely possible they lying about death rate.  They are more likely to respond to leaks then clarifying what's actually happening in effort to maintain aroua of control or deniability.

 

If I had to guess where a future global pandemic would come from, it'd be Africa first because they cant contain it on their own and too much of that **** comes from Africa anyway followed by China for refusing to admit how bad it is until they cant hide it anymore. World War Z started in China (the book, not that film with the same title)

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Just now, Renegade7 said:

Agreed, knowing China, entirely possible they lying about death rate.  They are more likely to respond to leaks then clarifying what's actually happening in effort to maintain aroua of control or deniability.

 

If I had to guess where a future global pandemic would come from, it'd be Africa first because they cant contain it on their own and too much of that **** comes from Africa anyway followed by China for refusing to admit how bad it is until they cant hide it anymore. World War Z started in China (the book, not that film with the same title)

OMG this is the zombie virus??????  Fortunately I planned for it and tonight I'll be surrounding my house with treadmills.

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6 minutes ago, nonniey said:

OMG this is the zombie virus??????  Fortunately I planned for it and tonight I'll be surrounding my house with treadmills.

 

I'll be honest, if its fast zombies, I think we lose despite best efforts, but slow zombies we still lose because of arrogance and not being able to agree on anything. World War Z happened to be a zombie book, it was really a critic on why we wouldnt be able to handle something we should be able to handle. DOD has  documents that came out on how theyd deal with slow Zombies, I think it only acknowledges fast zombies versus having a plan because they dont have one theyd want to admit to (ride it out)

Edited by Renegade7
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1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I'll be honest, if its fast zombies, I think we lose despite best efforts, but slow zombies we still lose because of arrogance and not being able to agree on anything. World War Z happened to be a zombie book, it was really a critic on why wouldnt be able to handle something we should be able to handle. DOD has public documents that came out on how theyd deal with slow Zombies, I think it only acknowledges fast zombies versus having a plan because they dont have one theyd want to admit to (ride it out)

If it is the fast zombies I'll just turn up the speed on the treadmills.

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Wonderful.....  Had to have come from some sort of weirdo messing with exotic animals.  So, China is probably both the worst place and the best place for something like this to break out.  (1) The government will likely cover-up/squelch any evidence of transmission throughout the country, which will lead to the spread of the disease to other regions, and (2) Once the government pinpoints a breakout, they'll quarantine the region in way that ensures maximum protection (i.e. through methods we can't do here without getting in serious trouble).

 

https://www.studyfinds.org/chinese-coronavirus-outbreak-traced-back-to-snakes-study-finds/

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