Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins

BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, twa said:

but false positives (especially )with symptoms would tie up medical facilities,supplies, testing capacity and personnel when you are already expected to be overloaded.

 

Not if they are being told go self-isolate for two weeks or until they either need medical attention or confirmed false positive with the test US was developing.

 

If they need a ventilator they'd get one coronavirus or not.  Arguments can be made most of the spread is being done by folks that are asymptomatic.

Edited by Renegade7
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Not if they are being told go self-isolate for two weeks or until they either need medical attention or confirmed false positive with the test US was developing.

 

 

 

if you told people they were positive medical problems with many of them would almost certainly increase.

 

add

a person tested positive(false) with symptoms or other health issues would tie up isolation ,supplies/capabilities at hospitals and even result in medical personel being quarantined unnecessarily.

 

Edited by twa
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bcl05 said:

This failure to produce adequate testing can be directly tied to the widespread economic/social shutdown and the recession to come.  If we had accurate, fast, available, widespread testing very early in this crisis, we could have tracked all infected patients and their contacts.  South Korea did this and are back to playing baseball.

 

1.  I'm not saying that nobody in South Korea is playing baseball, but the at least at their main professional is not playing and isn't planning on playing until at least April.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_KBO_League_season

http://eng.koreabaseball.com/

 

2.  They're still generally limiting mass gatherings, including threatening to fine churches.

 

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/17/South-Korea-focuses-on-church-outbreaks-as-new-coronavirus-infections-decline/4171584436995/

 

3.  South Korea has taken other much larger steps to prevent the viruses spread.  E.g. Their military has literally been used to clean buildings.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-toll-idUSKBN215054

 

4.  I'm very worried that things are going to start to get better (the number of cases are going to decline like they are in S. Korea) and everybody is going to "celebrate" and that's going to make things worse.  This is something that we are going to be dealing with for an extended period of time.  S. Korea started dealing with this back in January, done more testing, taken other more extreme measures, and they still are not close to being back to normal.

 

This is not my area of expertise, but:

 

5.  I just generally don't see this as a case where containment is feasible.  This is now a world wide problem and it appears that people can act as non-symptomatic carriers.  It seems to me we are beyond a contain, isolate, and let it die off situation.  IMO, the only way this ends is for most people to become resistant to it.   IMO just looking at some numbers, I don't see how you get rid of this without huge numbers of people being immune. 

 

7.  IMO getting to the point where a large number of people are immune is going to be difficult and take a while to be done safely. ~50% of the US gets vaccinated for the flu every year and still millions of people get the flu every flu season.  My understanding is if the same happens over the same period of time for this disease because its worse in terms of baseline issues for most people and symptoms persist for longer, that'll put a huge strain on our healthcare system.  It seems to me that we need to get to the point where >70% of the population is resistant to this (through either vaccination or having already had it) before things can safely get back to truly normal.  If 50% of the population is resistant and you try to go back to normal, it'll spread pretty quickly through the other 50% of the population to the point that millions of people will get it in equivalent of a flu season, which will overwhelm our healthcare system.

 

(This is one of those things where I've been searching and looking to see if somebody has addressed this, but I can't find anything yet.  For this disease, in real terms, what does a flattened curve look like.)

Edited by PeterMP
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, twa said:

 

if you told people they were positive medical problems with many of them would almost certainly increase.

 

Huh?  We have government officials already self-isolating earlier this month with no confirmation they tested positive.  We coulda at least got these tests for the health care works and folks already in the hospitals.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Huh?  We have government officials already self-isolating earlier this month with no confirmation they tested positive.  We coulda at least got these tests for the health care works and folks already in the hospitals.

 

I should have said false positive.

 

how many health workers would have been needlessly removed/isolated with a high false positive rate?

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to add (and just as a push, everybody should contact their congress person today) to me, these cases are clearly a point where, the key is to get out in front of these things.

 

When an issue comes up, we should have a team and plan in place to help the effected country.  I'm not sure China would have accepted our help, but if this was a regular priority for us, then there would be more person-to-person contact between Chinese officials/experts and US officials/experts in this area, and the sharing of information and assistance would be more likely.  The other thing is we should be doing a lot more in understanding what is out there (in general in terms of infectious diseases) and how those organisms/viruses work.  In reality, if this was a priority, we could have developed molecules that are effective against a much more wide spread sampling of these viral proteases, meaning it would be more likely we'd be further along to having a drug that we know works against this virus or a vaccine.   Other than it hasn't been made a priority for us, there's no reason why we haven't created and studied hundreds of variants of the proteins associated with these viruses (just the proteins, not the whole virus.  I'm not for engineering novel viruses to see what they do.)  The NIH budget should be much more shifted to studying infectious diseases and the relevant biochemistry.

 

The NIH has spent I don't know how much on studying heart disease and developing things like stents, which for most people in most cases have questionable value, when the key for most people really hasn't changed since the 1970s.  Exercise and eat right.

 

(Note, if the NIH does do the what I've suggested, I will likely personally benefit.)

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, twa said:

 

I should have said false positive.

 

how many health workers would have been needlessly removed/isolated with a high false positive rate?

 

Who's to say they would've been removed versus help decide on having isolated wings jus for possible cases?  They going to inevitably get it and have to work anyway, the problem folks are trying to point out is how much damage is being done by lack of information to make efficient decisions.  We are lurching right now because of how far behind we are.

Edited by Renegade7
Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, twa said:

but false positives (especially )with symptoms would tie up medical facilities,supplies, testing capacity and personnel when you are already expected to be overloaded.

 

1.  The issue for the kit would have been a false positive for another corona virus.  In the end, they said use the kit as is if you have it because they weren't worried about people having another coronavirus.

 

2.  When it was realized that the kit had an issue, they were already behind.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Fenti can't on the one hand saying it's better to be overly cautious then defend not using WHO tests because of possible false positives.  The idea that spread was inevitable is missing the point, we are trying NOT to be Italy right now. Some countries are doing better or worse then others, where are we going to land now?

Edited by Renegade7
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Who's to say they would've been removed versus help decide on having isolated wings jus for possible cases?  They going to inevitably get it and have to work anyway, the problem folks are trying to point out is how much damage is being done by not lack of information go make efficient decisions.  We are lurching right now because of how far behind we are.

 

the standard protocol is isolating both the patient and the unprotected medical personnel possibly infected, thus adding to the cascade that overwhelms hospitals and supplies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, twa said:

 

the standard protocol is isolating both the patient and the unprotected medical personnel possibly infected, thus adding to the cascade that overwhelms hospitals and supplies.

 

 

This is not a standard situation, the spread is exploding because of folks spreading it that don't know they have it whether they get symptoms or not.  Are you arguing that not knowing is somehow better despite the hard decisions that would've had to be made? Harder then the decisions that they are having to make now?

Edited by Renegade7
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, twa said:

 

the standard protocol is isolating both the patient and the unprotected medical personnel possibly infected, thus adding to the cascade that overwhelms hospitals and supplies.

 

 

Which they would have changed if it became a problem because the kit had a large false positive rate.

 

(In reality, if you have a kit that has a high false positive rate and you have lots of them, you'd just run multiple tests on everybody.)

 

But again, you're talking about an issue that was never an actual issue.  The kit never had an issue for detecting this specific corona virus.  The kit included a a more general test for any corona virus, which the FDA and CDC just said ignore. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

1.  The issue for the kit would have been a false positive for another corona virus.  In the end, they said use the kit as is if you have it because they weren't worried about people having another coronavirus.

 

2.  When it was realized that the kit had an issue, they were already behind.

 

my understanding is the us kits either worked or returned a inconclusive result.

 

I agree the testing rollout was deplorable.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, twa said:

 

my understanding is the us kits either worked or returned a inconclusive result.

 

I agree the testing rollout was deplorable.

 

Then your understanding is wrong.  The kits included reagents to test for this specific coronavirus which worked fine.  The kit also included reagents to test essentially for any coronavirus that didn't work.  In the end, the FDA and CDC said just ignore the part of the kit that tested for any coronavirus.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Am I the only one getting frustrated with how many rich people doing just fine are getting these tests no problem?

 

I'm not.  I mean the rich have always had better to access to pretty much everything.  That's sure as **** not gonna change now, especially with health on the line.  Sucks, but it's to be expected.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

This is not a standard situation, the spread is exploding because of folks spreading it that don't know they have it whether they get symptoms or not.  Are you arguing that not knowing is somehow better despite the hard decisions that would've had to be made? Harder then the decisions that they are having to make now?

 

what I am saying is a high false positive rate contributes significantly to health systems being swamped.

the US tried to reduce the number and instead ended up with a testing shortage,

Link to post
Share on other sites

I will say I am a little concerned gov. Hogan just reactivated people with expired medical licenses.  I have warned my wife that I could see her drafted because nurses may end up in extreme demand.  As her old coworkers tell her of the difficulty they are having getting nurses for exposed/positive pediatric cases, I can see a case for her being drafted.  For our family, it would be a nightmare for me.  I am watching her try to homeschool our 4 special needs kids, while rationing supplies, and run our house.  It is high stress enough.

 

Still I look at my usual utilitarian belief set and see how her working if things go like Italy, could save so many more lives than ours.  I think Hogan made the right call.  I just hope it isn't the first step that ends with my wife leaving us for the duration.  Even if it is, I would still support it as probably the right call.  It would just suck for us. 

  • Sad 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Which they would have changed if it became a problem because the kit had a large false positive rate.

 

 

 

I am speaking of the rate on the tests China and others have used with reported false positive rates of 50% or so....not the us ones.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, twa said:

 

what I am saying is a high false positive rate contributes significantly to health systems being swamped.

the US tried to reduce the number and instead ended up with a testing shortage,

 

Your thinking too much about mass distribution and getting entire country tested.  We had folks coming to the hospital with obvious symptoms that couldn't confirm it's what they had because their doctors couldn't even get tested. My understanding, and I'm open to being proven wrong, is that many health care facilities wanted a test in the meantime so they could make the call on what to do, even if it wasn't the best test, because of how rapidly the situation was evolving.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, No Excuses said:

A false positive would not contribute to health systems being swamped if the symptoms don’t require hospitalization. People aren’t going to be put on ventilators if they don’t need it. 

 

what of those already hospitalized or needing it for other issues?

 

you aren't going to test them?

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

. My understanding, and I'm open to being proven wrong, is that many health care facilities wanted a test in the meantime so they could make the call on what to do, even if it wasn't the best test, because of how rapidly the situation was evolving.  

 

Yes and I've said repeatedly that restricting alt testing was a mistake.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, twa said:

what of those already hospitalized or needing it for other issues?

 

you aren't going to test them?


If someone requires ICU care due to their symptoms, they will get it regardless of testing or not. The point of testing isn’t to send people into emergency care situations. The only real concern would be drugs but since there are no anti-viral drugs involved here that can be falsely prescribed, it’s a non-issue.
 

As usual you are making **** up. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Jumbo locked this topic
  • Jumbo unlocked this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...