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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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32 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

People are acting like US cases will explode in a week....

 

Depends on your definition of "explode".  Think all the countries are reporting "doubles every 6 days".  

 

31 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

You might be right. I wonder if people will be as angry about it without someone in particular to blame. 

 

I don't anticipate any shortage of blame.  

 

Some of it will be deserved.  

Edited by Larry
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27 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

Seattle, Northern CA, Southern CA, New York corridor are the hot spots. 

 

To be expected with each of those areas having major international airports. I would expect to see Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Miami, DC to be the next areas reporting huge increases in cases. 

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But can't test them because we are so ****ing far behind.... It's probably spreading like wildfire.....could be millions but I believe contact tracing is out the freaking window...... But hopefully the containment measures states are taking slows the infection spread down.... Better than doing nothing and let it spread like wildfire...... Example, Italy

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Remember how those TV evangelical charlatans (Falwell, Bakker, Robertson, ad nauseum), after disasters like hurricanes or 9/11, would declare that the disaster was brought upon the U.S. by God as punishment for the gays, for abortion, for godlessness, for gun control, or for any other right-wing hot button issue of the day? 

 

I remember that well.  

 

Now I conclude that this virus has been brought upon the U.S. by God as punishment for Donald Trump.

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32 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:


Those are hotspots. They aren’t *the* hot spots. 
 

Our case count increase is *locked in* for the next month at minimum. We’re at 5k today. It will 10k in 4 days, 20k in 8, 40k in 12, 80k in 16, and 160k in 20, 320k in 24, 640k in 28, and 1.3m in 32. Roughly a month to 1m cases, based on the doubling rate we’ve seen the past two weeks. That kind of increase would crush our healthcare system. We’d have a 10% fatality rate like Italy. 
 

Note: I don’t think we’ll maintain a 4 day doubling rate. But that scenario is still feasible in 6-8 weeks, and it’s still going to be horrific. 

 

Why don't you think we'll maintain the 4-day doubling? Is it because even the smaller measures will have some impact? 

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34 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:


Those are hotspots. They aren’t *the* hot spots. 
 

Our case count increase is *locked in* for the next month at minimum. We’re at 5k today. It will 10k in 4 days, 20k in 8, 40k in 12, 80k in 16, and 160k in 20, 320k in 24, 640k in 28, and 1.3m in 32. Roughly a month to 1m cases, based on the doubling rate we’ve seen the past two weeks. That kind of increase would crush our healthcare system. We’d have a 10% fatality rate like Italy. 
 

Note: I don’t think we’ll maintain a 4 day doubling rate. But that scenario is still feasible in 6-8 weeks, and it’s still going to be horrific. 

Let's watch this, but I don't believe that doubling rate.  Again... much we don't know about spreading of this virus (because we aren't testing aggressively enough) , I am skeptical.  

 

You are saying incubation period is a month?

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LabCorp is flooded with over 1,000,000 samples to test. Samples are being sent to other facilities. This is what my doctor's office in southern Maryland told me. I was told  testing results (for positive/negative) have gone from 2-4 days to now 6 days at the earliest.

Edited by Metalhead
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I guess my point this morning is:  by avoiding the virus crisis, we are fast-forwarding into a financial/economic crisis. 

 

I saw a poster on a different forum say something like:  "this is why you should have 6 months in emergency funds saved up".  Yeah.... who can really afford that if you have spent 20 years of your adult life struggling to be under a roof and food on the table for your family?  Because you have massive college debts?

 

Given that many studies in the past year have said a majority of folks live paycheck to paycheck and can't pay $1000 emergency situation... 

 

All the politicians want to say is, "dont worry, you will be made whole..." I am sorry, but it doesn't work that way when rent is due.  And all the people missing rent and mortgages is going to have second and third order effects. 

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A coronavirus patient refused to quarantine, so deputies are surrounding his house to force him to

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/us/kentucky-refused-quarantine-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

 

(CNN)A Kentucky novel coronavirus patient checked himself out of the hospital against medical advice. So to prevent him from spreading the virus, officials are surrounding his house to keep him there.

 

The 53-year-old man in Nelson County refused to quarantine himself after testing positive for Covid-19, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said.

 

Nelson County officials "forced an isolation" on the man, one of the first 20 confirmed Covid-19 cases in the state.

"It's a step I hoped that I'd never have to take," Beshear said in a conference on Saturday. "But I can't allow one person who we know has this virus to refuse to protect their neighbors."

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2 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

 

I guess my point this morning is:  by avoiding the virus crisis, we are fast-forwarding into a financial/economic crisis. 

 

You cannot begin to address the financial crisis until the virus crisis is under control. 
 

All you can do until then is give people money to pay bills and suspend as many bills as possible, and keep medical, grocery stores, and gas stations open. 
 

The desire of so many to focus on the economy when the issue is that people cannot go into public is so mind numbing. 
 

people still don’t get it. I don’t care what rates you cut or how much cash you inject. The economy cannot be addressed until the virus is controlled and operating procedures for the foreseeable future are established (namely when and how people can go into public)

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4 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

I guess my point this morning is:  by avoiding the virus crisis, we are fast-forwarding into a financial/economic crisis. 

 

I saw a poster on a different forum say something like:  "this is why you should have 6 months in emergency funds saved up".  Yeah.... who can really afford that if you have spent 20 years of your adult life struggling to be under a roof and food on the table for your family?  Because you have massive college debts?

 

Given that many studies in the past year have said a majority of folks live paycheck to paycheck and can't pay $1000 emergency situation... 

 

All the politicians want to say is, "dont worry, you will be made whole..." I am sorry, but it doesn't work that way when rent is due.  And all the people missing rent and mortgages is going to have second and third order effects. 

 

Well I'm sure we'll learn a lesson from this just like from 2008.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Metalhead said:

LabCorp is flooded with over 1,000,000 samples to test. Samples are being sent to other facilities. This is what my doctor's office in southern Maryland told me. I was told  testing results (for positive/negative) have gone from 2-4 days to now 6 days at the earliest.

 

What's the timeframe before the samples expire?  Read they can and in some places they are, can anyone confirm that?

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3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

What's the timeframe before the samples expire?  Read they can and in some places they are, can anyone confirm that?

I do not know :(I was told samples are frozen for one full day then sent to the lab.

 

Edit - Or at least that is how medical facilities down here operate with LabCorp.

Edited by Metalhead
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25 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

 

To be expected with each of those areas having major international airports. I would expect to see Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Miami, DC to be the next areas reporting huge increases in cases. 

 

and areas around cruise ports/foreign tourist areas

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1 minute ago, twa said:

 

and areas around cruise ports/foreign tourist areas

And any areas consisting of people with foreign backgrounds. Those communities have a high % if people that travel overseas because they have family they go visit for whatever reason (fun, catching up, sometimes it’s that someone is sick and they just want to see them, whatever)

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Why don't you think we'll maintain the 4-day doubling? Is it because even the smaller measures will have some impact? 


or there’s been a faster influx of new cases recently as people have been more aware the virus is here. But certainly possible the current rate is sustained for awhile. 

 

24 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

Let's watch this, but I don't believe that doubling rate.  Again... much we don't know about spreading of this virus (because we aren't testing aggressively enough) , I am skeptical.  

 

You are saying incubation period is a month?


To answer both of your questions: 

 

The cases that are showing up today are people who were infected a month ago, started showing some symptoms two to three weeks ago, started showing serious symptoms a week ago, and finally got tested 4 days ago.
 

The rate of new serious cases is absolutely locked in for the next month because all those cases have already been infected. 

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Virginia basically shutting down most work places. Businesses don’t have to close but must follow the no more than 10 people ban. Wonder how that’ll work since most work places have more than 10 employees.

https://www.wusa9.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-details-every-positive-case-in-virginia/65-e7afd4c2-7dc7-4f4d-b317-1772458fee17

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1 minute ago, tshile said:

And any areas consisting of people with foreign backgrounds. Those communities have a high % if people that travel overseas because they have family they go visit for whatever reason (fun, catching up, sometimes it’s that someone is sick and they just want to see them, whatever)

 

 

 

 

My area hits all the risk factors ,even the mexicans are fleeing 

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^^^ is that most likely scenario of worst case scenerios?

 

 

I’m still open for business... I don’t have more than 10 employees... if had the ability to close and it was recommended, I probably would at this point.

 

 the store where my company is working today... they are a national auto shop...

Edited by CousinsCowgirl84
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