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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

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10 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

So, to take the average then...some of you are expecting 200,000ish cases (meaning roughly 2,000-6,000 dead) in the US? Maybe I'm stupid or naive (or both) but I don't really see it ever getting close to that. I sure hope I'm right. 

I’ve seen pretty big time medical experts predicting 75-150 million Americans will get it.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

So, to take the average then...some of you are expecting 200,000ish cases (meaning roughly 2,000-6,000 dead) in the US? Maybe I'm stupid or naive (or both) but I don't really see it ever getting close to that. I sure hope I'm right. 

 

I hope you're right too.  I don't know if expect is the right term.  Left unchecked, it definitely get there and much worse.  Obviously we are not leaving it unchecked and if the current measures are not enough, there will always be more draconian cards to play.

 

It also makes a huge difference as to when we see those cases.  Even 200k, if spread out over a long term is manageable.  If we have 200k in a matter of two weeks....

 

That's why we all have to be overly conservative in our response.  Overshooting the response is so much preferable to realizing later it should've been much more aggressive.

Edited by bearrock
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31 minutes ago, bearrock said:

I would really hope that US CDC has already been in contact and this information gets disseminated soon.

😂

 

they’re in contact. I don’t believe it’s nearly as productive as anyone would hope it would be. 
 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

So, to take the average then...some of you are expecting 200,000ish cases (meaning roughly 2,000-6,000 dead) in the US? Maybe I'm stupid or naive (or both) but I don't really see it ever getting close to that. I sure hope I'm right. 

 

Just pointing out, the CDC estimates that last season (2018-19), the flu killed 30,000 Americans.  (And that wasn't a bad ear.  They estimate 60K for 17-18).  

 

Just saying, it's possible for the US to have 10 times that many deaths, and it's not even news.  

 

(No, I am not saying "it's not even as bad as the flu".)  

 

3 minutes ago, bearrock said:

That's why we all have to overly conservative in our response.  Overshooting the response is so much preferable to realizing later it should've been much more aggressive.

 

I think the way I'm going to present things is that, when you're dealing with an infection that doubles every 6 days, then taking an inadequate step, and waiting a month to see how it works, can do a whole lot of damage.  

Edited by Larry
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Compounding this on my end is the start of allergy season, and I'm wondering how many are in my boat.  No fever or anything, but the constant sneezing, the lump in the throat from post-nasal drip, which results in coughing, etc.  I can't go out anywhere without getting side-eye.

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China more or less controlled the virus to Wuhan, though of course it leaked to other countries.  Not much in Beijing, for example.  In our case, it appears that it has spread to almost all states.  How are we going to control that?

I would think at least a million cases in total when all is said and done.  I hope I am completely wrong.  They can't test everybody right now due to testing issues.

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6 minutes ago, Forehead said:

Compounding this on my end is the start of allergy season, and I'm wondering how many are in my boat.  No fever or anything, but the constant sneezing, the lump in the throat from post-nasal drip, which results in coughing, etc.  I can't go out anywhere without getting side-eye.

 

Somebody posted this image a week or so ago, but I think it's worth a repost if people missed it.  

 

5e6a58e684159f61963287a2?width=700&forma

 

It's from this article, which has a whole bunch of useful basic information.  

 

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54 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Heard a comment from a medical expert on this subject, maybe a week ago.  

 

He pointed out that issuing advice to people to stay home for a week if they feel sick is good advice.  (And better advice than what the WH was shoving out.)  But that a lot of people won't comply with those instructions, for economic reasons.  

 

And, he pointed out, many of the people who are most likely to not comply, are in those positions where they really really need to.  "These are the people serving your food.  Caring for your elderly.  Changing the sheets in your hotel room."  

I’m a job creator. I don’t see how this affects me at all. Oh, wait. 

 

15 minutes ago, twa said:

 

do you recall the bird flu numbers?

 

it will easily be that

 

add 

sorry H1N1

 

As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died

Though not entirely prepared for it, we had a functioning public health response at that time. This time around we’ve allowed this guy to run things.

 

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8 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

I’m a job creator. I don’t see how this affects me at all. Oh, wait. 

 

Just keep repeating.  "The real threat is to my portfolio."  

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Quote

Though not entirely prepared for it, we had a functioning public health response at that time.

 

remind me how many died before it was a emergency?

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8 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Just keep repeating.  "The real threat is to my portfolio."  

 

Never mind that the average citizen's 401k is a smoldering ruin, there's a great buying opportunity for someone. Just like for Trump in the housing crisis.

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6 minutes ago, twa said:

 

remind me how many died before it was a emergency?

 

You feel like answering your own question, and sharing your number for that question?

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, twa said:

 

remind me how many died before it was a emergency?

From: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-h1n1-swine-flu-pandemic-spin/

Quote
Obama’s Emergency Declarations

In one tweet, Trump quoted Fox Business Network’s Lou Dobbs as misleadingly claiming that it “took 6 months for President Obama to declare a National Emergency” for the H1N1 “swine flu” outbreak that “killed 12,000 Americans.” It’s true that Obama didn’t declare a national emergency for six months, but that ignores several other steps the administration took, including declaring a public health emergency the same month that the novel H1N1 infections were first reported.

At the time of the tweet, Trump had not yet declared a national emergency for COVID-19.

(Dobbs’ actual quote was slightly different. He said on his March 12 show that it “took six months for President Obama to then declare a national emergency, one that ultimately killed more than 12,000 Americans and infected 60 million more.”)

On April 15, 2009, the first infection was identified in California, according to the CDC, and less than two weeks later, on April 26, 2009, the Obama administration declared a public health emergency. The day before, on April 25, the World Health Organization had declared a public health emergency

 

Thanks for playing. Try a little harder next time.🙂 Nobody said the H1N1 response was perfect but if you have any proof of the sorts of things that have happened this time, e.g. hampering testing to cover up the numbers, routing info through loyalist politicians instead of public health professionals, etc. please feel free to share them. Like Tя☭mp and his administration, the response has been garbage.

Edited by The Sisko
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30 minutes ago, Forehead said:

Compounding this on my end is the start of allergy season, and I'm wondering how many are in my boat.  No fever or anything, but the constant sneezing, the lump in the throat from post-nasal drip, which results in coughing, etc.  I can't go out anywhere without getting side-eye.

I’m about 30 miles outside of Austin and yesterday the first cases (2 of them) were reported there.  Also yesterday, my brother-in-law and I started having almost the same exact symptoms - slightly sore throat, a bit of a cough, maybe a little sinus stuff (more him than me), a tiny bit of aches.  
Now, aside from specific allergies (mowing the lawn, cats, dust), I’m really only affected by cedar (Jan. and Feb.).  My bro has developed some seasonal allergies.  So no idea what’s going on with us - could be allergies, aches could be because I ran two days ago.  
So, bringing this home, I’m probably fine.  No cases in my county, so I feel like I’m probably not carrying.  Yet, the lack of testing makes me wonder if I should trust the lack of cases nearby.  The lack of testing makes me think that going to the doctor is just a waste of time, and frankly, I feel like I’m probably far more likely to contract it if I do go to the doctor.  
 

The uncertainty, stemming from the lack of testing/preparation really ticks me off.  I want to be responsible, but feel like 1) I can’t, and 2) I might pay for trying to be.  That’s a massive and frustrating failure, IMO.  

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

So, to take the average then...some of you are expecting 200,000ish cases (meaning roughly 2,000-6,000 dead) in the US? Maybe I'm stupid or naive (or both) but I don't really see it ever getting close to that. I sure hope I'm right. 


it’s a curve that’s based on time and how drastic of measures are taken at what time. 
 

the longer you wait to take drastic measures the more sick you have, the more dead you have, and the curve is exponential. 
 

taking one number and using it as some absolute summary of the situation then discussing whether that number is truly good/bad/whatever and comparing it to some other number of some virus that we’ve had decades of dealing with and vaccines and immunities for, is completely missing the big picture of what is going on and what is needed. 
 

drastic measures are needed to:

- actually figure out how bad it currently is

- stop it from getting worse

- adjusting healthcare to response adequately to the reality (a reality we still don’t know because we are not testing nearly enough people)

 

my states health department sent a memo out yesterday that basically said: we’ve completely lost track of how this is spreading because we don’t have the manpower to investigate the number of instances and track it, so we’ve completely lost containment and insight to what is going on. 
 

Johns Hopkins just stopped public access to their system but I believe the number of deaths in VA was 47 yesterday and the number of cases being investigated was between 2-6k. I’m pulling from memory 

 

and we’ve already lost control of the numbers. 
 

We have over 8 million people in this state and at the point of <50 deaths we’ve lost control of the situation. 
 

if you’re arguing potential total numbers and comparing it to other viruses and the flu, stop. Doing that means you don’t get it. 
 

this is a public health crisis and we’re in the infancy of it. The deaths ramp up in week 2 and they ramp up quick. 
 

week 2 for my area is end of next week. 
 

 

Edited by tshile
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Here’s another way to think about it:

 

not a single country with a major outbreak has regained control without incredibly drastic measures like quarantine. 
 

so what’s your bet, that we’re going to figure it out? Or that we’re going to have to implement drastic measures like national quarantine?

 

if you don’t think we have some magic answer and choose drastic measures.... well... when are they coming? Cause we’re not going to get better until they happen... until then.... it just gets worse. 

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So thursday I found out I'm a diabetic, yesterday the government started garnishing my wages for defaulted student loans(I graduated in 06..wtf why now?) And I live in Oklahoma who is barely testing anyone. Also work in a Casino with no paid time off left because of a recent shoulder problem. I'm not liking my chances here.

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1 hour ago, Forehead said:

Compounding this on my end is the start of allergy season, and I'm wondering how many are in my boat.  No fever or anything, but the constant sneezing, the lump in the throat from post-nasal drip, which results in coughing, etc.  I can't go out anywhere without getting side-eye.

I've got the same annual allergy crap. Post-nasal drip, raw throat, slight cough if I talk too much, overall dried-out and itchy feeling. Instantly sneeze if I open a window or go outside. It all adds to the current freak-out factor.

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Little piece I found about COVID-19 and seasonal allergies 

 

https://www.cleveland.com/metro/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-affect-allergy-sufferers.html

 

Quote

How will coronavirus affect allergy sufferers?

Posted Mar 12, 2020

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Not much is known about how allergy sufferers could be affected by the new coronavirus.

But with spring allergy season is just around the corner, one expert says allergy sufferers could be more prone to catch diseases like the coronavirus if it’s circulating in their community.

Think about it: Coronavirus can spread by touching an infected surface — a cellphone, a door handle, a stair railing — and then touching your eyes, nose or mouth.

 

Quote

Generally, people with allergy symptoms feel worse when they come down with any respiratory illnesses, the Cleveland Clinic said in a statement.

 

*Click Link For More* 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, tshile said:

not a single country with a major outbreak has regained control without incredibly drastic measures like quarantine. 

 

I agree with you, but want to make sure I'm right.  Is it true that so far, China is the only country who's curve isn't geometrically upward?  

 

That's the only one I've seen.  But I'm aware that I could have missed one.  

 

23 minutes ago, tshile said:

if you don’t think we have some magic answer and choose drastic measures.... well... when are they coming? Cause we’re not going to get better until they happen... until then.... it just gets worse. 

 

And that leads me to a second question.  

 

Assuming that:  

 

1)  Drastic measures work.  (China seems to have proven that ne.)  

2)  Nothing else will.  (I think that one's good, so far.)

 

Is there such a thing as pulling the emergency brake too soon?  If we had locked down the whole country when we had 3 deaths, would the whole thing be over now?  Or would it simply have been a wasted suffering, and done nothing?  

 

Do you have to wait till the plague gets to a certain point, before implementing said drastic measures?  Is it possible to do them too soon?  

 

Or is this an unanswerable question?  

 

tumblr_lmp7yzd0of1qchzcgo1_640.png

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48 minutes ago, tshile said:


Johns Hopkins just stopped public access to their system but I believe the number of deaths in VA was 47 yesterday and the number of cases being investigated was between 2-6k.

 

 

 

 

As of yesterday, Virginia Department of Health is reporting 30 presumptive and confirmed cases in VA.

 

http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/novel-coronavirus/

 

Do you mean nationwide?

 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Corcaigh said:

 

As of yesterday, Virginia Department of Health is reporting 30 presumptive and confirmed cases in VA.

 

http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/surveillance-and-investigation/novel-coronavirus/

 

Do you mean nationwide?

 

 

I think I was thinking of Washington state. Thanks!

 

so we lost control with even fewer numbers 

Edited by tshile

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Why are va schools closed and my Schools open?

 

Where are your schools?

 

There are known community infections taking place in VA.

 

Given that there has been no testing the local authorities are rightly taking an approach to see what can be limited at this stage.

 

It's limited data but the change in slope on the US curve from the last data point is pretty ****ing terrifying.

 

 

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Edited by Corcaigh
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2 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Just pointing out, the CDC estimates that last season (2018-19), the flu killed 30,000 Americans.  (And that wasn't a bad ear.  They estimate 60K for 17-18).  

 

Just saying, it's possible for the US to have 10 times that many deaths, and it's not even news.  

 

(No, I am not saying "it's not even as bad as the flu".)  

 

 

I think the way I'm going to present things is that, when you're dealing with an infection that doubles every 6 days, then taking an inadequate step, and waiting a month to see how it works, can do a whole lot of damage.  

 

Right, that's what I'm still trying to wrap my head around. Shutting down schools and sports for a month or more? We never react this way to anything and this one isn't nearly as deadly. Having said that, I'm guessing it's mostly due to us knowing very little about it. 

 

Still, it's surreal to see this reaction.

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