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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

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49 minutes ago, tshile said:

Flu is contagious 24 hours before being symptomatic

 

they believe this is up to 20 days. 14 is seemingly verified but maybe 20 now. 
 

which is really what the big issue is. That’s a long time to carry without symptoms and being contagious. 
 

 


Is that verified? I’d seen reports about it but nothing from WHO/CDC, etc. Was curious if it was legit... 14 day incubation period while contagious is superbug stuff. 

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28 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:


Is that verified? I’d seen reports about it but nothing from WHO/CDC, etc. Was curious if it was legit... 14 day incubation period while contagious is superbug stuff. 

 

I trust @tshile when he says stuff like that, especially after following this thread and some of his responses.

 

Superbugs are resistant to antibiotics, this is a virus.  Give time for a vaccine and watch the death to infection ratio with flu as a baseline.

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7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I trust @tshile when he says stuff like that, especially after following this thread and some of his responses.

 

Superbugs are resistant to antibiotics, this is a virus.  Give time for a vaccine and watch the death to infection ratio with flu as a baseline.


I wasn’t saying I thought he was wrong. I was just curious if he’d seen somewhere that it had been verified by an official health organization. I’ve been looking around for confirmation of the incubation period for a few days without luck. 

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9 hours ago, skinsfan_1215 said:


Is that verified? I’d seen reports about it but nothing from WHO/CDC, etc. Was curious if it was legit... 14 day incubation period while contagious is superbug stuff. 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html

 

up to 14 days before being symptomatic. 
the 20 number was recently thrown out but I don’t believe there’s enough to back it. I doubt you’ll find that number anywhere at least not at the moment. 
 

this is where China being more open would help...

 

my understanding is the contagiousness is what is alarming. The virus is essentially a cold, but it’s very contagious with a long incubation period and that’s driving a lot of the concern. 
 

you can spread it around a lot if you can walk around a city for 2 weeks before you know you have it...

 

I believe you’ll also see two weeks mentioned as the quarantine period 

Edited by tshile

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@tshile that link explains the incubation period but doesn’t confirm that it’s contagious during that time. Clicking on “transmission” on that same link, CDC acknowledges reports of transmission from asymptomatic people, but says it’s still unconfirmed. 
 

I read another link that said average incubation period was 5.8 days in a study they did of patients. A roughly 6 day incubation period with transmission possible a day or two prior to symptoms would be much less scary than a two week incubation with transmission possible the entire time. 

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Well I just confirmed with someone that’s been knee deep in this for the last week and a half that the guidance they’ve been given from the cdc and health department is you’re contagious for up to 14 days after contact, and incubation is up to 14 days. 
 

maybe that information is wrong. Maybe it’s not published publicly. But that’s what I’ve got. 

 

i think there’s quite a few things that aren’t public. And I’m willing to bet more that isn’t making its way to healthcare people yet. 
 

that’s about all I can say. I probably shouldn’t have said anything since his is quite far outside my knowledge area... we have a handful of posters here that would know a hell of a lot more about it. They’re being quiet outside of some general stuff so...

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Yeah I have no doubt that’s the “worst case” info public health officials are operating with right now, with the goal of stopping the spread. I was mostly curious if you had seen anything I’d missed that publicly confirmed it. 
 

We’re only about a month into this outbreak so I’d imagine there’s still a lot being studied about it. But worth keeping in mind that the worst case scenario isn’t necessarily the reality with the virus. I’m pretty sure we just don’t know yet.  
 

fwiw 14 day incubation with 10 days contagious vs 7 days incubation with 2 contagious could be the difference between 100,000,000 people infected worldwide and 100,000 people infected mostly in China. There’s a massive difference in our ability to contain the spread between those two scenarios. 

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23 minutes ago, tshile said:

Well I just confirmed with someone that’s been knee deep in this for the last week and a half that the guidance they’ve been given from the cdc and health department is you’re contagious for up to 14 days after contact, and incubation is up to 14 days. 
 

maybe that information is wrong. Maybe it’s not published publicly. But that’s what I’ve got. 


It’s based on statements from China and a recent study from Germany.

 

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/scientists-zero-in-on-the-novel-coronavirus-incubation-period--67045

 

Quote

Last weekend, Ma Xiaowei, director of China’s National Health Commission, announcedthat researchers believe the viral incubation period—the time it takes for an infected person to develop symptoms—could last up to 14 days for infections of the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV. Xiaowei also said it appeared that at least some patients could transmit the virus during that time. Then yesterday (January 30), physicians described a case in The New England Journal of Medicine of a patient in Germany who apparently caught the virus from a business partner visiting from Shanghai while she was asymptomatic.


These revelations raise the possibility that people could be spread the virus long before they know they have it.

 

Edited by No Excuses
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^yeah, same info I’ve seen. Nothing official from CDC or WHO at this point. Again, huge difference in ability to contain between 6 and 14 day incubation, and 2 days asymptomatic transmission vs 10 days. We’ll see what ends up coming out. 

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6 minutes ago, visionary said:

 

 

 

 

Fecal-oral route?

 

HUMANCENTiPAD.jpg

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4 hours ago, visionary said:
 

 

 

These statistics give a little more info - certainly not enough to definitively paint a picture.  Using the assumption the suspected cases are actual cases it looks like about 5% become severe of which 15% die (a .007% death rate over all)?  So a death rate twice that of the flu for severe cases but less than half as many severe cases than the flu? This could be way off if the assumptions are wrong.

Edited by nonniey
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China reports bird flu outbreak near epicenter of coronavirus

 

China has detected an outbreak of the bird flu near the epicenter of the deadly coronavirus, according to a report.

 

The bird flu outbreak was reported Saturday in Hunan, which borders the province of Hubei where the coronavirus broke out last month, according to the South China Morning Post.

 

“The outbreak occurred in a farm in the Shuangqing district of Shaoyang city,” officials said. “The farm has 7,850 chickens, and 4,500 of the chickens have died from the contagion.”

 

The fatal illness — known as H5N1 virus — causes “a highly infectious, severe respiratory disease in birds,” according to the World Health Organization.

 

The flu can be transmitted to humans, but there have been no reports of anyone with the illness, the outlet said.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Can anyone confirm this?

 

 

 

 

The two HIV drugs are protease inhibitors.  Protease inhibitors are known to be effective against other coronaviruses.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27027316

 

So possible, but the HIV ones are pretty specific to HIV so that particular claim I'd be dubious of (though they also both have been used to treat other virus infections).  But there also a lot of known viral protease inhibitors out there.  It would be somewhat surprising if something didn't work.

 

The problem is going to be the rate at which the virus mutates.  Drugs like this are generally used against and work well against viruses that don't spread (and therefore reproduce) rapidly, like HIV.  But we also probably could create new protease inhibitors pretty quickly.

Edited by PeterMP
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I seen a video of China building a entire fleet of hospitals in nine days.... it had me thinking, if we ever have to go to war with them,  we will never ever win. Americans no longer have that kind of drive.

 

We demand 16/hr to flip a burger. We create endless regulations which make lawyers rich.  We study every aspect of every major project we undertake for decades. We allow every special interest group to sue over any little thing to delay projects further, even after getting regulatory approval. 
 

It would take at least nine years to build In America what China has built in nine days. America would be dead by then..


 

 

Edited by CousinsCowgirl84
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