BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Fresh8686]

 

13 minutes ago, tshile said:

I played Pandemic a lot a long time ago. I think it’s now called plague Inc

 

This was how you killed the world easily every time. Highly infectious virus with no symptoms or a long delay between contagiousness and symptoms showing. 
 

I don’t have any reason to believe the conspiracy theory that this was a BioWare fare weapon that escaped the lab. But damn if it doesn’t check all the boxes

 

 

 

 

In that Joe Rogan video with Michael Osterholm, he shot down that conspiracy theory and said this is more attributable to the wet markets in China. 

 

[EmirOfShmo]

The double every 6 days I saw used March 7 when the US had 500 cases. So 1,000 would be Friday March 13th. We hit 1,000 cases today, 2 days early.

[twa]

 

I was wondering how long till they got some sense.

[gbear]

Looking at the worldometer link from a few pages back, it mentioned doubling of patients every 7.4 days.  That was before interventions to try and minimize spread like Israel, South Korea and China have done.  Note, the U.S. is still not doing those things either.  Also, I note the post a couple up pointing out we doubled faster than that from March 7 - 13 ignores the increase, even if pitiful, in number of tests performed.

 

One thing that keeps striking me about numbers quoted on mortality rates is the denominator used.  So often, the denominator used is the total of infected patients.  We know this is a bad number, especially here in the U.S. where we aren't testing much at all.  However, what gets me about the number is many of these patients haven't recovered, so they may still die.  Yet if we really want to panic, we can look at only the resolved cases.  In the U.S., we have had 31 deaths and 15 recovered out of 1015 cases.  I am not saying a 2/3 mortality rate is a more accurate number because I don't think it is.  I just also think the 3.1% rate may be a best case for us right now.

Edited March 11, 2020 by gbear

[Llevron]

im not freaking out

im not freaking out 

im not freaking out 

im not freaking out 

im not freaking out 

 

[Fresh8686]

 

[Larry]

22 minutes ago, EmirOfShmo said:

The double every 6 days I saw used March 7 when the US had 500 cases. So 1,000 would be Friday March 13th. We hit 1,000 cases today, 2 days early.

 

Yeah, but I would expect huge increases in the "confirmed positive" numbers, as we ramp up testing people.  Not because the actual number infected has grown that much, but just because we know about ones that we didn't know before.  

[GOSKINS_08]

Dc is trying to cancel all events through April first. That’ll be interesting for the Wizards and Capitals.

[EmirOfShmo]

1 minute ago, GOSKINS_08 said:

Dc is trying to cancel all events through April first. That’ll be interesting for the Wizards and Capitals.

...and Nationals!

[GOSKINS_08]

Just now, EmirOfShmo said:

...and Nationals!

Yup. Looks like the warriors will be the first team to play in an empty stadium tomorrow.

[Larry]

22 minutes ago, gbear said:

One thing that keeps striking me about numbers quoted on mortality rates is the denominator used.  So often, the denominator used is the total of infected patients.  We know this is a bad number, especially here in the U.S. where we aren't testing much at all.  However, what gets me about the number is many of these patients haven't recovered, so they may still die.  Yet if we really want to panic, we can look at only the resolved cases.  In the U.S., we have had 31 deaths and 15 recovered out of 1015 cases.  I am not saying a 2/3 mortality rate is a more accurate number because I don't think it is.  I just also think the 3.1% rate may be a best case for us right now.

 

In terms if the disparity caused by not testing, there's other factors, too.  

 

Part of me says that if we test 10 times as many people, we're going to have 10 times as many positives.  

 

But, if we test 10 times as many people, we're not going to have 10 times as many dead people.  

 

However, having said that?  

 

I look at that nursing home in WA.  (A place which, I think, represents a big chunk of the official death count for the whole country, right now.)  

 

Since Feb 19 (and going from memory), they've had 26 deaths.  But only 13 of them tested positive for the virus.  

 

The other 13 went from "no symptoms" to "dead" so quickly, that the nursing home didn't have time to send them to the hospital.  And the nursing home didn't have the ability to test, only the hospital did.  

 

Which means that there's 13 dead people right there, that aren't listed in the "people who died from the virus" statistic.  

 

So, it looks like the lack of testing in the US is not only depressing the "number of infections" statistic.  It's also depressing the "number killed" one.  At least in that one case.  

 

[Xameil]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I'm not sure I want to have this conversation with you right now.

 

The Executive branch doesnt want accurate numbers, had cut funding for federal organizations that could get exactly what you are saying, went rogue instead of using WHO test kits (which failed miserably), and sent out an order to take down warning posters from immigration courts.  

 

This isnt "only so much you can do" territory at all. 

Not exactly sure I get what your issue with my post is except that I blame every leader and not just one of them...

 

And of course calling out the World Health Organization..

[SoCalSkins]

 

 

Italy is basically putting age limit on icu. If you have underlying disease you don’t get treatment either. Morphine you up and let you die. There is not enough room to do anything else. Crazy

[FanboyOf91]

 

[bcl05]

That Atlantic article is a must-read.  Italy is not some backwater with a primitive health care system.  It is very analogous to ours, and we could be facing a similar catastrophe.  

[Larry]

2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

and sent out an order to take down warning posters from immigration courts.  

 

 

As unpleasant as it is, defending this administration (I'll wash my hands after typing this), it looks like that order had a lifespan measured in hours.  

[ixcuincle]

 

43 minutes ago, GOSKINS_08 said:

Dc is trying to cancel all events through April first. That’ll be interesting for the Wizards and Capitals.

I have season tickets to the caps and Nats. I attend nearly every caps game. This sucks. 

[The Sisko]

1 hour ago, twa said:

 

you just basicaly described what I said.....how long can you do without essential services and support systems?

When I read it the first time it came across differently to me but re-reading it, I think I see you were sort of saying exactly that. My bad.

1 hour ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

FFS, even imbeciles are laughing at how stoopid he is.

[Dan T.]

18 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

As unpleasant as it is, defending this administration (I'll wash my hands after typing this), it looks like that order had a lifespan measured in hours.  

 

The administration started reversing the decision ONLY AFTER THEY WERE EXPOSED. Just four hours after the Miami Herald published a story on the ban, a DOJ spokesman called the Herald to say “the signs shouldn’t have been removed. It’s now being rectified.” 

 

I don't give any credit for changing only after getting caught.
 

Especially since the order was given by Christopher A. Santoro, the country’s acting chief immigration judge.  His mass email ordering the posters removed said the order was being given "per our leadership."  "Chief immigration judge" sounds pretty high up the chain of command, so if it came from above him, that's pretty high levels of the administration.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Dan T.

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/amichaistein1/status/1237809991190548480?s=21

[twa]

15 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

That Atlantic article is a must-read.  Italy is not some backwater with a primitive health care system.  It is very analogous to ours, and we could be facing a similar catastrophe.  

 

we could, of course Italy has half the ICU capacity we have per capita I think......having time to prepare should help as well

 

 

[bcl05]

4 minutes ago, twa said:

 

we could, of course Italy has half the ICU capacity we have per capita I think......having time to prepare should help as well

 

 

 

Having a bit of time to prepare doesn't allow us to double the number of ventilators or O2 masks or hospital beds.  It does allow us to do the types of social distancing and limitation of contact that might blunt the curve and allow it to stay within our capacity.  This is happening, to a degree, but I'm worried if that it may be too little too late.  Too early to say.   Fingers crossed.

 

If only we had started this on day 1, instead of weeks later, we really could have made a much bigger difference.  

Edited March 11, 2020 by bcl05

[FanboyOf91]

It's like watching people build sandcastles on the beach as police cars blare out tsunami warnings on loudspeaker.

[Dan T.]

Rumor floating that the producer and exporter of Corona Beer has offered to donate 2 million test kits to the World Health Organization if they will change the name of COVID-19 to the "Bud Light virus."

[visionary]