Jump to content
Washington Football Team Logo
Extremeskins

4-3 Starting Lineup


Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

What statistical analysis doesn't rely on hindsight for data points?

 

The point is that, in today's league, the quick passing game is so prevalent that it lessens the impact of a good pass rush.  That's why coverage is so important.  At the end of the day, the value of a good QB is the most important factor by far.  But it's interesting to see how people decide to rank the next most important positions, and it makes sense that they would be the positions that most directly affect the passing game, especially in a league that has mastered the quick passing attack.


The quick passing game is nice until you run into 2nd and 13 or 3rd and 7. A huge piece of the win/loss pie is 3rd downs and when a pass rush and QB need to be at their best. 
 

What’s the number you’d assign to a pass rush 10 years ago compared to now? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

What statistical analysis doesn't rely on hindsight for data points?

 

The point is that, in today's league, the quick passing game is so prevalent that it lessens the impact of a good pass rush.  That's why coverage is so important.  At the end of the day, the value of a good QB is the most important factor by far.  But it's interesting to see how people decide to rank the next most important positions, and it makes sense that they would be the positions that most directly affect the passing game, especially in a league that has mastered the quick passing attack.

 

Given how most modern offenses and defenses operate with the quick passing game, you'd think the ILB and Safety positions would be super important rather then CB or Edge. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, wit33 said:


The quick passing game is nice until you run into 2nd and 13 or 3rd and 7. A huge piece of the win/loss pie is 3rd downs and when a pass rush and QB need to be at their best. 

 

Yes, that's very true.  And no one is saying pass rush isn't important.  But those situations are a very low percentage of plays a defense will face in a given season.  What about all the other plays?  The same is true for sacks.  Even the worst offenses will only be sacked on 10% of their drop backs, while most teams hover around the 4-7% rate.  In the overwhelming majority of plays, the pass rush doesn't get home, and it's up to the coverage to force a negative play.

 

Here's a quote from one of the data studies: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush-revisited

 

Quote

 

While this study might seem like giving more weight to pass-rush than our initial study – some caution is in order. First, the strength of a team’s pass rush is (theoretically) known a priori through game planning, so an opponent usually has the balance of the week’s preparation to scheme quicker throws, and quicker throws are every bit as valuable (if not more valuable) than longer-developing throws, especially when they are intentional. This is why, when one digs into the data deeper to see how to play success is predicted by opponent pass rushing and coverage, coverage abates play success at a much higher rate than pass rush, with or without adjusting for contextual variables.

 

Thus, the takeaway from this piece is a pushback against any notion that pass rush doesn’t affect offenses. It certainly affects offenses, forcing them to throw more quickly than coverage forces them to hang onto the ball. The issue for pass rush, however, is that quick passes are often effective, and so in terms of moving the needle defensively, it’s important to be able to cover well. 

 

 

 

 

I was one of the main posters begging for us to draft Chase Young for over a year now.  And I do believe one great pass rusher can be more important than one great coverage player.  But comparing the units as a whole, I'd much rather have a great coverage unit over a great pass rush unit... and teams like the Patriots and Ravens have clearly felt the same.

 

 

38 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

Given how most modern offenses and defenses operate with the quick passing game, you'd think the ILB and Safety positions would be super important rather then CB or Edge. 

 

You can look here and see that the most targeted position is CB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm

 

Quick slants, hitches, and mesh concepts are more prevalent than ever.

 

 

Edited by HTTRDynasty
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

7 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Yes, that's very true.  And no one is saying pass rush isn't important.  But those situations are a very low percentage of plays a defense will face in a given season.  What about all the other plays?  The same is true for sacks.  Even the worst offenses will only be sacked on 10% of their drop backs, while most teams hover around the 4-7% rate.  In the overwhelming majority of plays, the pass rush doesn't get home, and it's up to the coverage to force a negative play

 

 

 

This is why pressure rate is so much more important than sack rate. And pressures and sacks really help limit offensive options and simplify defensive scheming.  Against a great pass rush, offenses have to alter those schemes. Keep a back in. Keep a TE in. Etc. And when defenses know the ball is going to be coming out, they can aggressively play all of the short stuff. Why do you think Richard Sherman had such a resurgent year? It had been since 2014 since he'd had a similarly effective season?

 

 

image.thumb.png.e7157745a8050705e1a6c80422586da7.png

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-49ers-richard-sherman-pff-best-coverage-defender-2019

 

7 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I was one of the main posters begging for us to draft Chase Young for over a year now.  And I do believe one great pass rusher can be more important than one great coverage player.  But comparing the units as a whole, I'd much rather have a great coverage unit over a great pass rush unit... and teams like the Patriots and Ravens have clearly felt the same.

 

You can look here and see that the most targeted position is CB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm

 

Quick slants, hitches, and mesh concepts are more prevalent than ever.

 

 

Coverage is obviously super important. And yes, studies have shown that coverage may be more important than pressure. But, you are leaving out that coverage grades for individual players vary much more from year to year for defensive backs than they do for pass rushers. When making a decision about drafting or signing one player, that can tilt things. 
 

Your comment about quick slants and hitches and mesh concepts is an important one. To field a successful coverage unit in Today's NFL, you have to have multiple versatile coverage defenders, not just a couple of good corners. It's super helpful to have good boundary corners, obviously, but having some guys that can play safety and corner really allows you to line up against different personnel groupings and to disguise coverages. And your LB's have to be good in coverage. 


I really think that to field an elite defense, we need spend another year or two investing heavily in the secondary. 

 

Edited by Anselmheifer
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Teams run short passing game to beat zone.  The NFL game is more zone heavy than ever now, the counter to that is a short, methodical passing game and misdirection set up by the run.

 

I honestly think they will eventually legislate man-beaters like pick routes out of the game in order to bring man coverage back into primacy again.  It's a pretty obvious exploit to scheme in downfield blocking on pass plays, which was never part of the game before.  Kind of surprised it hasn't been banned already.

 

Coverage is important, not necessarily more important or impactful than the rush, where getting a sack is a drive-ender like 80% of the time.  Get five sacks in a game--doable with a great rush--and that's four stops and + four possessions for your offense.  But pass defense is also only like 55 to 60 % of your defense as a whole at the very most, and in run defense, DLs are about a thousand percent more important than DBs.  They're playing a major role on every snap when DBs are spectators half the time.  That's why teams with great DLs always play great defense.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Watching old games where Del Rio was the HC or DC this morning. I'm super excited to see our defense. I wasn't a huge fan of GGGG. I've always loved JDR Defenses. I'm Gibbs II excited or more TBH. Especially with the Gibbs kids on offense.  :ols:

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

This is why pressure rate is so much more important than sack rate.

 

I wouldn't say that.  Pressure rate is more predictive year-to-year than sack rate, but it's not more important.  FiveThirtyEight recently wrote a good article about this:

 

 
Quote

 

Pressure has a modest effect on drive outcomes

Drive results on series with and without pressure on the quarterback, regular-season games 2017-19

  DEFENSIVE PRESSURE NO PRESSURE  
  DRIVES FREQUENCY DRIVES FREQUENCY DIFF
Punt 3,907 41.4% 2,867 35.7% +5.7
Made field goal 1,570 16.6 900 11.2 +5.4
Turnover on downs 518 5.5 206 2.6 +2.9
Missed field goal 274 2.9 163 2.0 +0.9
Fumble 432 4.6 350 4.4 +0.2
Interception 664 7.0 599 7.5 -0.5
Touchdown pass 1,257 13.3 1,125 14.0 -0.7
Touchdown run 551 5.8 745 9.3 -3.5

Excludes series that ended at halftime or the end of the game itself as well as rare events like safeties and blocked field goals or punts.

SOURCES: ESPN STATS & INFORMATION GROUP, NFL NEXT GEN STATS

 

But pressure doesn’t appear to have a massive impact on interceptions and fumbles, two key measures of defensive success and plays that are often pivotal in winning or losing football games. Overall, these pressure numbers don’t fully explain why teams would spring for elite pass rushers to the extent they do in the draft. More punts and fewer touchdowns are certainly great results for a defense, but the absolute effect of pressure is rather modest: pressure plays in 2019 were worth 0.41 expected points added for the defense.

 

The types of pressure are fairly diverse, so perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising. A play where a QB takes a hard hit in the pocket while throwing downfield is likely to lead to a better result for the defense than a play that causes a mobile QB to scramble, yet both are counted as pressures.

 

The same, however, can’t be said for sacks. Sacks are always bad for the offense — they only vary in degree. In fact, when a drive includes at least one sack of the opposing QB, defenses went on to force a punt over 18 percentage points more often than on drives with no sacks.

 

Sacks have a much more dramatic effect

Drive results on series with and without sacks of the quarterback, regular-season games 2017-19

  SACK NO SACK  
  DRIVES FREQUENCY DRIVES FREQUENCY DIFF
Punt 1,843 53.4% 4,931 35.2% +18.2
Fumble 304 8.8 478 3.4 +5.4
Turnover on downs 202 5.9 522 3.7 +2.2
Made field goal 520 15.1 1,950 13.9 +1.2
Missed field goal 91 2.6 346 2.5 +0.1
Interception 107 3.1 1,156 8.2 -5.1
Touchdown run 78 2.3 1,218 8.7 -6.4
Touchdown pass 170 4.9 2,212 15.8 -10.9

Excludes series that ended at halftime or the end of the game itself as well as rare events like safeties and blocked field goals or punts.

SOURCE: ESPN STATS & INFORMATION GROUP, NFL NEXT GEN STATS

 

If offenses are punting more often on series when they take a sack, it makes sense that scoring drives on those series are also less frequent. From 2017 to 2019, drives culminating in touchdown passes occurred 10.9 percentage points less frequently when the QB was sacked, and fumbles occurred 5.4 percentage points more frequently.

 

There is a saying in the NFL that disruption is production, meaning that even if a defensive pressure play doesn’t end in a sack, that player’s contribution is still beneficial. We can see from the data that this is certainly true — pressure plays have value. But pressures are worth only a little over a quarter of the value of a sack. Overall, sacks are strongly positive plays for the defense, accounting for 1.47 EPA per play — over a full point better than the average pressure play. 

 

 

 

So pressure only has a very modest impact on ending drives, and a negligent impact on causing turnovers.  Meanwhile, sacks have a much greater impact but are much less frequent - only about once every 34 plays (or 3%).


 

 

11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Against a great pass rush, offenses have to alter those schemes. Keep a back in. Keep a TE in. Etc. And when defenses know the ball is going to be coming out, they can aggressively play all of the short stuff. 

 

Yes, the relationship between coverage and pass rush is clearly symbiotic - no one has ever disputed that.  The key point is that great pass rush forces a QB to get rid of the ball faster, which is often beneficial to the offense, whereas great coverage forces a QB to hold onto the ball longer, which often results in a negative outcome for the offense.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Why do you think Richard Sherman had such a resurgent year? It had been since 2014 since he'd had a similarly effective season?

 

Sherman was ranked 5th in 2015 - not much of a drop-off at all.  He had an 86.7 grade from PFF in the regular season that year after posting an 89.9 grade in the regular season the year prior.  His two post-season games dragged his grade down.  Still, even with those two games included, he was ranked 5th, which is a negligible drop-off.

 

2016 (from Wiki):

After the season, it was revealed that Sherman was battling a sprained MCL in his right knee, an injury that hampered him during the second half of the year. The Seahawks were suspected to have failed to disclose this injury, which prompted the NFL to investigate. If the injury was not disclosed in time, the Seahawks could have faced a heavy fine as well as a forfeiting a second-round pick in the 2017 Draft. Ultimately, the Seahawks were not penalized.

 

2017 (from Wiki):

Sherman was bothered in 2017 by his Achilles, which he initially injured in Week 5 during a 16–10 win against the Los Angeles Rams. In the following weeks, he tried to avoid making any severe cuts. On October 29, 2017, Sherman made four combined tackles, two pass deflections, and intercepted two passes by quarterback Deshaun Watson during a 41–38 victory against the Houston Texans. During Week 10 in a 22–16 win at Arizona, he left the game in the third quarter after rupturing his Achilles, and was ruled out for the season.

 

2018:

Was a shell of himself, recovering from a torn Achilles at 30-years old.

 

Did Sherman benefit from a very effective pass rush last year?  Absolutely.  But let's not pretend that was the primary reason for his resurgence.  The dude has been battling through significant injuries the past several years and finally had his first fully healthy season.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Coverage is obviously super important. And yes, studies have shown that coverage may be more important than pressure. But, you are leaving out that coverage grades for individual players vary much more from year to year for defensive backs than they do for pass rushers. When making a decision about drafting or signing one player, that can tilt things. 

 

Yes, this is very true, and I have brought this up multiple times as well, especially in the 2020 draft thread when arguing in favor of Chase Young.  Coverage grades are very unstable unless you are talking about elite players like Revis and an uninjured Sherman.  Which is why I said this yesterday:

 

18 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I do believe one great pass rusher can be more important than one great coverage player. 

 

There is extreme value in knowing what you're going to get from year-to-year, and the stability of a pass rusher elevates their individual importance over a coverage player when we're speaking multiple years; however, when we're talking about coverage units as a whole, or talking about a single player for a single year, I still think coverage is more important.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Your comment about quick slants and hitches and mesh concepts is an important one. To field a successful coverage unit in Today's NFL, you have to have multiple versatile coverage defenders, not just a couple of good corners. It's super helpful to have good boundary corners, obviously, but having some guys that can play safety and corner really allows you to line up against different personnel groupings and to disguise coverages. And your LB's have to be good in coverage. 


I really think that to field an elite defense, we need spend another year or two investing heavily in the secondary. 

 

 

Agreed.

 

 

Edited by HTTRDynasty
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

What LB position did Reuben Foster play at Alabama and San Francisco? If he's off the PUP, and healthy, he's our best linebacker. I think maybe Foster at MIKE, Holcomb at WILL, Thomas Davis at SAM? I suppose you could flip Holcomb and Foster. KPL and SDH both look like WILL's to me. That's a lot of Will depth. 

 

I still think Ryan Anderson isn't a SAM. He can't cover. Look at that recent conditioning race and tell me you don't think Payne might be better in coverage. Anderson is a DE in this scheme. I don't know where else to look at SAM. Maybe Brailford? I think we have a decent short term, but no long term solution there

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Who are the outside linebackers? Seems the D-Line is set. Safety is pretty set. Corner is.... okay.... wish there was a “shutdown” guy. And if Reuben is there, middle LB looks good. But, who are our OLB guys? This D could be insane, like all time, with two more pieces. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

What LB position did Reuben Foster play at Alabama and San Francisco? If he's off the PUP, and healthy, he's our best linebacker. I think maybe Foster at MIKE, Holcomb at WILL, Thomas Davis at SAM? I suppose you could flip Holcomb and Foster. KPL and SDH both look like WILL's to me. That's a lot of Will depth. 

 

I still think Ryan Anderson isn't a SAM. He can't cover. Look at that recent conditioning race and tell me you don't think Payne might be better in coverage. Anderson is a DE in this scheme. I don't know where else to look at SAM. Maybe Brailford? I think we have a decent short term, but no long term solution there

 

 

49 minutes ago, Wayne_Millner said:

Who are the outside linebackers? Seems the D-Line is set. Safety is pretty set. Corner is.... okay.... wish there was a “shutdown” guy. And if Reuben is there, middle LB looks good. But, who are our OLB guys? This D could be insane, like all time, with two more pieces. 

It's late and I'm tired and can't remember if it's JDR or RR that plays the 43 under or over, but either way, essentially one of your backers is at the line of scrimmage helping with contain and covering the flat and short zone most often. Anderson is great at that spot. SDH is great in coverage and fast. I don't think the starters roles are going to be that important either, since they're already talking about using different personnel packages throughout the games.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Wayne_Millner said:

Who are the outside linebackers? Seems the D-Line is set. Safety is pretty set. Corner is.... okay.... wish there was a “shutdown” guy. And if Reuben is there, middle LB looks good. But, who are our OLB guys? This D could be insane, like all time, with two more pieces. 

 

Kevin Pierre Louis is definitely a 4-3 OLB. Most likely a WILL at his size (6' 230). He's outstanding in coverage and a good pass rusher, but he's a bit of a liability against the run. I could see him playing more of a hybrid S/LB nickel package role. On passing downs I could also see him as a regular WILL or even a pass rushing SAM in an under front as @Koolblue13 noted above.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

is it me or did this defense get a lot faster? 

 

And deeper. We have a legit starter at every single position. Not all pros, like some people seem to need, but legit starters and even more importantly, depth at most of them too. I don't know if I've ever this excited about a defense of ours. We even have situational gadget type guys like Hudson and JHC (although he's sitting out). Our SAMs are probably Anderson and Holcomb and in some packages, Anderson can go to the line and bring in Holcomb behind him, I mean it's endless what we can do on defense. Our 3rd and long defense, up front, is insanely fast. If Apke can take a step forward, we can play a nasty cover 3 with him playing center field and Davis and Collins blitzing or watching the middle. We probably have 15-20 starters on our defensive roster, which is amazing because I can't remember having 10.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

And deeper. We have a legit starter at every single position. Not all pros, like some people seem to need, but legit starters and even more importantly, depth at most of them too. I don't know if I've ever this excited about a defense of ours. We even have situational gadget type guys like Hudson and JHC (although he's sitting out). Our SAMs are probably Anderson and Holcomb and in some packages, Anderson can go to the line and bring in Holcomb behind him, I mean it's endless what we can do on defense. Our 3rd and long defense, up front, is insanely fast. If Apke can take a step forward, we can play a nasty cover 3 with him playing center field and Davis and Collins blitzing or watching the middle. We probably have 15-20 starters on our defensive roster, which is amazing because I can't remember having 10.

 

 

 

This is such an accurate statement.  I see arguments about some guys being 'JAGs' and the suggestion that it's not good enough... but nobody can field 22 starting all pros.  Austin Reiter started 16 games at C for the Chiefs last year and won a SB.   Not sayin Reiter won them a SB or anything.. but clearly he's good enough, and effective enough, to be a part of a very VERY successful offense.  

 

 

 

Transactions

 
  • Transaction, fine, and suspension data since 2015

December 5, 2018: Kansas City Chiefs signed C Austin Reiter to a contract extension.

September 3, 2018: Kansas City Chiefs acquired C Austin Reiter off waivers from the Cleveland Browns.

September 2, 2018: Cleveland Browns waived C Austin Reiter.

April 16, 2018: Cleveland Browns re-signed C Austin Reiter.

October 10, 2016: Cleveland Browns placed C Austin Reiter on IR.

September 20, 2016: Cleveland Browns signed C Austin Reiter.

September 15, 2016: Washington Redskins added C Austin Reiter to the practice squad.

September 14, 2016: Washington Redskins cut C Austin Reiter.

September 13, 2016: Washington Redskins waived C Austin Reiter.

September 29, 2015: Washington Redskins added C Austin Reiter to the practice squad.

September 6, 2015: Washington Redskins cut C Austin Reiter.

September 5, 2015: Washington Redskins waived C Austin Reiter.

May 11, 2015: Washington Redskins signed C Austin Reiter to a four-year contract.

 

 

Kory Lichtensteiger and Spencer Long started in front of Reiter in 2016.  

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/8/2020 at 1:14 PM, wit33 said:


The quick passing game is nice until you run into 2nd and 13 or 3rd and 7. A huge piece of the win/loss pie is 3rd downs and when a pass rush and QB need to be at their best. 

 

Which is why successful passing on 1st down is so key. In terms of picking up a 1st down the most successful three play sequence is pass-run-run. 

 

League wide there has been a gradual switch so that now more passes are called on 1st down than runs - league average last year was well over 50% pass on 1st down. We were at 42% (and factor in how much we were behind in games and had to pass later on - we passed 62% of the time on 1st down in the 4th quarter of games). One thing I would love to see this year is more 1st down passing early in games.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Which is why successful passing on 1st down is so key. In terms of picking up a 1st down the most successful three play sequence is pass-run-run. 

 

League wide there has been a gradual switch so that now more passes are called on 1st down than runs - league average last year was well over 50% pass on 1st down. We were at 42% (and factor in how much we were behind in games and had to pass later on - we passed 62% of the time on 1st down in the 4th quarter of games). One thing I would love to see this year is more 1st down passing early in games.

2nd and short is really the golden spot, regardless of how you get there. Quick short passes are definitely the most direct way there.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

Which is why successful passing on 1st down is so key. In terms of picking up a 1st down the most successful three play sequence is pass-run-run. 

 

League wide there has been a gradual switch so that now more passes are called on 1st down than runs - league average last year was well over 50% pass on 1st down. We were at 42% (and factor in how much we were behind in games and had to pass later on - we passed 62% of the time on 1st down in the 4th quarter of games). One thing I would love to see this year is more 1st down passing early in games.


My guess is bad teams will rank higher in 1st down throw percentage and good teams lower. There’s an argument that running the ball at a higher rate now is the way to go due to the NFL making a shift defensively the last 5 years to combat spread attacks. Examples would be the Niners, Titans, Seahawks, and  Ravens all being run dominant teams experiencing great success. 
 

I don’t care to subscribe to any way of moving the ball on first down. Exploit the weaknesses of the opponent on that day, dominate situationally, and capitalize on your team’s strength areas. 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Words can't express how excited I am to watch these two tear it up this year. Sweat looks like he's about 275 now. 

 

I don't know, to me he looks smaller than Chase.  A little taller, but noticeably more thin.  He was at a good playing weight last year, I don't think he bulked up, nor should he have.  What I want to see him do is play through his blocks better.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...