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1 hour ago, GothSkinsFan said:

Hard to tell with Payne but it does not look like he crossed the line before the whistle.  It looks like he anticipated the "snap" and was in motion, overcoming inertia, when the whistle blew.  I so want to see Sweat run with the ball (if he has hands).  With his size and speed, wow.  Also, it looks like Sweat was able to stop at the line on the return whereas Chase took an extra step so when Sweat turned around for his final "lap", he was a step ahead of Chase.  (IOW, Sweat didn't overrun the play.)

 

Yeah I noticed that too. Payne was looking over at the guy with the whistle and time his jump so he was already moving when the whistle blew. On one hand, it sort of pours water on the "Payne has the getoff of a Ferrari" angle, but on the other hand that sort of anticipation without a "false start" is really impressive.

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It's interesting that Football Outsiders has us with the 4th lowest pressure rate last year, yet Pro Football Reference has us with the 3rd highest.  I wonder where the disconnect is there.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/defenses-and-pressure-2019

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm

 

Football Outsiders:

 

Defenses and Pass Pressure, 2019
Tm Plays Pressure
Rate
Yds
w/Pressure
DVOA
w/Pressure
Yds, no
Pressure
DVOA, no
Pressure
Yds
Dif.
DVOA
Dif.
NE 612 37.1% 3.1 -79.9% 6.4 -3.5% -3.3 -76.3%
NO 688 36.2% 3.5 -54.2% 7.6 36.8% -4.0 -90.9%
BAL 605 35.0% 2.8 -84.3% 7.4 22.1% -4.6 -106.4%
GB 610 34.8% 3.5 -65.2% 7.9 29.3% -4.4 -94.5%
PIT 604 34.4% 2.8 -83.8% 7.2 19.9% -4.4 -103.7%
DAL 644 33.9% 3.8 -43.1% 7.2 41.7% -3.4 -84.8%
TB 745 32.9% 2.7 -85.1% 8.0 40.5% -5.2 -125.6%
LAR 633 32.7% 3.9 -59.2% 7.0 25.5% -3.1 -84.8%
CLE 584 32.2% 3.2 -65.1% 8.2 45.4% -4.9 -110.6%
JAX 594 31.8% 3.0 -72.2% 8.7 53.1% -5.6 -125.3%
CIN 563 31.4% 3.1 -52.0% 9.5 63.7% -6.4 -115.8%
BUF 621 31.1% 1.9 -79.5% 6.8 16.3% -4.8 -95.9%
SF 607 30.8% 2.1 -105.1% 6.3 12.1% -4.2 -117.2%
PHI 641 30.6% 3.8 -52.7% 7.5 33.2% -3.7 -85.8%
ARI 676 30.5% 3.5 -71.1% 8.7 63.3% -5.2 -134.4%
NYJ 655 30.4% 5.1 -41.9% 7.1 33.3% -2.0 -75.2%
MIN 664 30.4% 2.8 -86.4% 7.4 28.1% -4.6 -114.6%
IND 628 30.1% 3.9 -64.2% 8.0 41.7% -4.1 -106.0%
KC 659 30.0% 3.1 -77.3% 7.3 25.9% -4.3 -103.2%
OAK 602 29.6% 4.1 -45.8% 9.0 64.2% -4.9 -110.0%
CHI 624 29.6% 2.7 -82.3% 7.4 30.2% -4.8 -112.5%
NYG 630 28.6% 4.6 -20.8% 8.4 53.4% -3.8 -74.2%
CAR 625 28.6% 3.8 -61.8% 7.5 26.9% -3.7 -88.7%
DEN 601 28.3% 3.7 -57.5% 7.5 30.0% -3.9 -87.5%
HOU 647 28.3% 4.4 -56.1% 8.3 49.9% -3.9 -105.9%
LAC 532 28.2% 4.3 -36.8% 7.5 31.3% -3.2 -68.1%
ATL 593 27.0% 3.3 -73.6% 8.3 51.1% -5.0 -124.7%
DET 667 26.8% 3.8 -48.6% 8.5 54.4% -4.6 -102.9%
WAS 613 26.1% 4.0 -43.8% 7.6 39.9% -3.6 -83.6%
TEN 682 25.1% 2.9 -66.0% 7.9 38.0% -5.0 -104.0%
MIA 585 24.1% 4.9 -26.6% 8.4 64.5% -3.6 -91.0%
SEA 657 24.0% 4.6 -66.8% 7.7 30.2% -3.2 -97.0%
NFL AVERAGE 30.3% 3.5 -63.5% 7.8 37.6% -4.3 -101.1%

 

 

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On 8/5/2020 at 8:20 PM, Koolblue13 said:

Payne is definitely the dark horse to blow up big time this year and that will just **** every OCs plan up big time.

 

Yeah that was another take away for me from Del Rio's interview answers.  They're going to let him off the chain and give him the freedom to make plays and he's such a ****ing cannon ball freak athlete that he's going to be getting into the backfield.  This feels like a really obvious change to make given we knew all along how explosive and athletic DaRon was.  But you can't scheme up roles for these guys in a vacuum.  They're part of a system, DaRon is a good two-gapper one tech, and considering who we have had at linebacker the past two seasons... you don't feel comfortable putting a lot of onus on them to read and react and make tough off script fits.  They were all journeymen and rookies.  No continuity or heavy investment in the group at all.  They simply don't have the experience/athleticism/communication/chemistry to have everyone going off instincts and still playing good D.  So you kind of had to play it safe with Payne as we're just hoping to get the damn run fitted as drawn up, especially considering we were like the worst run defense in the league when we drafted him.  We just weren't competitive enough on D the previous two years.

 

Really feels like things are different now.  Now the LBer group is more experienced and talented.  Holcomb has a year.  Bostic and Collins both have another year with this group.  Davis is a cut above the typical vet pick up we usually bring in.  KPL and SDH are pretty good and Foster is a different animal--a true playmaker at the position.  You've got two former linebackers for the top two coaches on the staff and they're really good at what they do.  These guys know each other better and Davis and the coaches are going to get the gang communicating with each other so much better.  That is one of our biggest keys to improvement.  That's really going to set the table for the defensive linemen to make plays because they can trust their linebackers to read what they're seeing and have their backs.  And the DL rotation is so damn good now, even with the switch to 4-3. You can keep DaRon at like ~55 snaps (assuming the offense is mediocre) and keep those legs fresh so he can just go out and attack, attack, attack.

 

Payne is another bellwether for the performance of the defense as a whole.  If he blows up then the defense is going to be ferocious.

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But you can't scheme up roles for these guys in a vacuum.  They're part of a system, DaRon is a good two-gapper one tech, and considering who we have had at linebacker the past two seasons... you don't feel comfortable putting a lot of onus on them to read and react and make tough off script fits.  They were all journeymen and rookies.  No continuity or heavy investment in the group at all.  They simply don't have the experience/athleticism/communication/chemistry to have everyone going off instincts and still playing good D.  So you kind of had to play it safe with Payne as we're just hoping to get the damn run fitted as drawn up, especially considering we were like the worst run defense in the league when we drafted him.  We just weren't competitive enough on D the previous two years." @stevemcqueen1

 

This part right here. Hes been here buying in, playing to the last whistle and just showing no quit in him and he's still a teamer. 

 

Now that we do have the coaches and they will definitely let him off the chain, I just can't see him not wrecking everything they do to defend us. Our D is going to be very good and very fun to watch. 

 

Even if our offense is mediocre it should still be a solid running/high percentage pass offense that will chew clock. Im also really high on Turner and our possible weapon groups on offense, even if few are stars.

 

I think we are going to be not just much better than most people think, but a hell of a lot of fun to watch.

 

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15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Even if our offense is mediocre it should still be a solid running/high percentage pass offense that will chew clock. Im also really high on Turner and our possible weapon groups on offense, even if few are stars.

 

They may not put a lot of points on the board, but you're right, they should be able to grind out first downs and run clock.  Haskins takes care of the football too.  We're going to be old school and lean on the defense to carry us to whatever wins we can get.

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24 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

They may not put a lot of points on the board, but you're right, they should be able to grind out first downs and run clock.  Haskins takes care of the football too.  We're going to be old school and lean on the defense to carry us to whatever wins we can get.


Sounds like a team Alex Smith would lead to a 10-11 win season. Hmmm...


Full disclosure, I’m on the Haskins hype train. 

 

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5 minutes ago, wit33 said:

Sounds like a team Alex Smith would lead to a 10-11 win season. Hmmm...


Full disclosure, I’m on the Haskins hype train.

 

That would be some mixed emotions.  It's impossible not to like and admire Alex Smith and want to see him make it back to playing in the NFL, and you'd love to see wins.  But I'm certainly not wanting to see his football comeback come at the expense of a Haskins injury or illness or struggle.  And I would feel stressed out vicariously just watching him play.  He's got a good life, has had a good career, made a ton of money, dodged a terrible and life-altering bullet... if I were him I would get as much of my money as I can without playing again and get out.  Call it a day and go have fun working for the Pac-12 network or Fox or something.

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43 minutes ago, wit33 said:


Sounds like a team Alex Smith would lead to a 10-11 win season. Hmmm...


Full disclosure, I’m on the Haskins hype train. 

 

There is a great video in the Turner hire thread about the last 5 games of the Panthers after Ron was fired and he was in full control and calling plays and it's a really fun offense to watch. I don't know how much was because of Allen at QB or because they could lean so heavily on CMC, but other than CMC we may have better players everwhere else. Especially QB. It's not going to be a high scoring air raid offense like and it's not going to be a hope for high teens because of some lucky dry plays type of offense like Smith ran. We should see the offense occasionally be sneaky good and maybe get some teams on their heels and be able to stay in a lot of games, but our defense is definitely going to be the shining jewel of this team. Better than it being the punter I suppose.

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8 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Well, I see there a lot of high expectations for the defense this year.  I guess we'll be a good test case for the hotly debated topic: coverage vs. pass rush.  I hope the pass rush truthers are right.

I dont think our secondary is as bad as its being sold. Davis is a good center fielder type true FS, better than anyone we've had in a decade. Collins is a beast and will absolutely excel. CB is similar to WR for me with a lot of young talent, but a question mark. The pass rush will definitely help them out. We could use more depth for sure.

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13 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Yeah that was another take away for me from Del Rio's interview answers.  They're going to let him off the chain and give him the freedom to make plays and he's such a ****ing cannon ball freak athlete that he's going to be getting into the backfield.  This feels like a really obvious change to make given we knew all along how explosive and athletic DaRon was.  But you can't scheme up roles for these guys in a vacuum. 

 

Payne is another bellwether for the performance of the defense as a whole.  If he blows up then the defense is going to be ferocious.

 

You and I are in agreement about Payne. That video was DaRon, Kerrigan, Ryan Anderson, Wes Martin, Jonathan Allen, and Matt Ioannidis. Payne did look like he got a bit of a head start. But, that's beside the point. He's just moving at a different speed from every other player in that heat of the race. He didn't get a head start and then get caught from behind. He gained ground with every step and just looked more explosive in every movement. It's like the NFL Combine drill I can't find the video right now, but DaRon looked and moved like a linebacker. Fast feet. Flexible hips. Twitchy. 

 

There are other things I'll say about the Daron Payne race. First, Wes Martin literally looks like a refrigerator. Literally. Second, Jonathan Allen literally looks like he's running in sand. I hope that video isn't reflective of the kind of shape he's in. Third, what business does DaRon Payne have moving so much better than two OLB's, Kerrigan and Ryan Anderson? Those are 4.8 guys and Payne weighs 311 and just dusts them. Faster in every turn and straight away. 

I know he can do it, because he's strong, but Payne is entirely miscast as a 2 gap DT. We should line him up as a one gapping 3 tech and just have him blow **** up. 

 

13 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

  But you can't scheme up roles for these guys in a vacuum.  They're part of a system, DaRon is a good two-gapper one tech, and considering who we have had at linebacker the past two seasons... you don't feel comfortable putting a lot of onus on them to read and react and make tough off script fits.  They were all journeymen and rookies.  No continuity or heavy investment in the group at all.  They simply don't have the experience/athleticism/communication/chemistry to have everyone going off instincts and still playing good D.  So you kind of had to play it safe with Payne as we're just hoping to get the damn run fitted as drawn up, especially considering we were like the worst run defense in the league when we drafted him.  We just weren't competitive enough on D the previous two years.

 

 

I don't know how much I agree with this. Our LB's did suck last year, but did they look any better from playing behind a 2 gap 3-4 scheme? A good coach plays to the strengths of his team. We had some DL talent last year. It might have been the only place on the team where we had known talent. And we employed a scheme that wasted that talent while also not looking good on the back end or at LB. I would have had the DL attack last year. At least the secondary would have looked a little better potentially. and the LB's were going to struggle either way. 

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2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I dont think our secondary is as bad as its being sold. Davis is a good center fielder type true FS, better than anyone we've had in a decade. Collins is a beast and will absolutely excel. CB is similar to WR for me with a lot of young talent, but a question mark. The pass rush will definitely help them out. We could use more depth for sure.


I wish I was as confident. Davis should be an upgrade over Montae, but if he was such a promising long-term prospect, I don’t see Pittsburgh trading away a 1st to find his replacement (after which their defense took a massive leap forward).  Davis should be a pretty good true center-fielder when the ball is in the air, but his missed tackles worry me and I don’t know much about his man coverage. 
 

Collins is going to have to defend TE’s and occasionally line up deep. The opposing offense will be consistently attacking him in those situations, as he’s proven over and over that coverage is his weakness.  
 

If this coaching staff forces Fuller to play Nickel CB, and only Nickel CB, as I’ve been hearing, that’s a waste that will be felt when Darby is giving up big plays in base. I’m holding out hope they’re not that stupid though and will let Fuller play outside in base. 
 

All the other guys are unknowns at this point - as you alluded to - which has me bracing for the worst, and telling myself “just enjoy the front 4 this year”. I have hope they’ll build up the secondary next offseason, but I think this year is gonna be a lot more ugly on defense than most fans seem to expect. 

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1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:


I wish I was as confident. Davis should be an upgrade over Montae, but if he was such a promising long-term prospect, I don’t see Pittsburgh trading away a 1st to find his replacement (after which their defense took a massive leap forward).  Davis should be a pretty good true center-fielder when the ball is in the air, but his missed tackles worry me and I don’t know much about his man coverage. 
 

 

Monte was trash. He was more of a SS that wasn't good at SS, so was dumped at free, which is how we've handled the situation forever.

 

Pitt didn't just trade a 1rst to replace him. Pitt used a 1rst to get a generational FS and top 10 player in the league because their FS was injured for the year and they wanted to win. That's a huge difference. They basically attacked addressing the position like it was QB. And it transformed their defense.

 

I think you're underselling Collins against TEs and RBs and playing the middle of the field. 

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11 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Well, I see there a lot of high expectations for the defense this year.  I guess we'll be a good test case for the hotly debated topic: coverage vs. pass rush.  I hope the pass rush truthers are right.

 

They're all wrong.

 

Football goes 3 ways: Offense/Defense/Teams

 

Your push rush is worthless if the opponent isn't dropping back taking risks trying to score. 

 

Your defense is entirely worthless if Special Teams blows it on 4th down too. 

 

And vice versa.

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20 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Monte was trash. He was more of a SS that wasn't good at SS, so was dumped at free, which is how we've handled the situation forever.

 

Pitt didn't just trade a 1rst to replace him. Pitt used a 1rst to get a generational FS and top 10 player in the league because their FS was injured for the year and they wanted to win. That's a huge difference. They basically attacked addressing the position like it was QB. And it transformed their defense.

 

I think you're underselling Collins against TEs and RBs and playing the middle of the field. 


When was Monte ever billed as an SS?  He was a FS in college and with his 4.4 40, I don’t think anyone thought he’d be anything other than a FS in the league. He was trash though. Which is why I said Davis should be an upgrade...

 

If Pittsburgh had faith that Davis would be their starting FS for the next decade, they wouldn’t have traded for Minkah, period. Teams don’t throw away 1st round picks when they already have someone they consider a long-term starter at the position. 
 

I love Collins in the box against the run, but it’s no secret he struggles in coverage. He’s better in deep shells than given credit for but it’s still not a strength; where he really struggles is against TE’s. 
 

10 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

They're all wrong.

 

Football goes 3 ways: Offense/Defense/Teams

 

Your push rush is worthless if the opponent isn't dropping back taking risks trying to score. 

 

Your defense is entirely worthless if Special Teams blows it on 4th down too. 

 

And vice versa.


Everyone already acknowledges that all phases of the game matter. We’re talking about which are more important to team success, which is crucial when you’re building a team with finite resources. 
 

There are recent studies that show pass coverage is more important than pass rushing and also that pass blocking is more important than pass rushing. 
 

 

Edited by HTTRDynasty
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30 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

If you allow a terrible defense to just attack with it's only strength and it misses, it's a total loss. We were putting bandages on wounds last season, because we couldn't do the surgery. Now we should be able to.

 

We were 6th worse in points and yards. It WAS a total loss. It's like being a boxer with a big right hand, no jab and no defense. We were facing superior teams and we never even threw the right. If we could have found any one area to be good, it would have made scheming the rest easier. 


Also, I can't believe that we have to argue that Manusky's schemes were a terrible match for this team, and the NFL in general. He's now a quality control coach at a lower tier college program. Those schemes sucked. 

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It’s not all about speed, but the defense adding Davis, Darby (both 4.4 guys), and Fuller (more of a twitch guy, but still borderline 4.4 to 4.5 guy) to go along with Fabian and Collins has me excited about the group overall having the physical ability to compete consistently.
 

Don’t need greatness at every spot, just guys that can compete and make the “windows” for an offense consistently small that require an offense to be good, great, and at times elite to move the ball. 
 

 

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2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Everyone already acknowledges that all phases of the game matter. We’re talking about which are more important to team success, which is crucial when you’re building a team with finite resources. 
 

There are recent studies that show pass coverage is more important than pass rushing and also that pass blocking is more important than pass rushing. 

 

That sounds like reactionary analysis with hindsight. Its a passing league heavily favoring the passing game and the QB position. Obviously any study will simply say you need a great QB and you need to protect said QB. Those studies are compiling stats after the fact; Its not a predictive analysis. 

 

You can't just create a pass rush by simply drafting a pass rusher. This team has had pass rushers. That we needed a Chase Young that would single-handily turn the corner for the defense was a fantasy conjured in our minds from watching years of mediocrity. As we all saw, Preston Smith appeared average on our team, and then looked like a completely different player in GB. Imagine we just signed Preston Smith from GB to fix this team's pass rushing problems instead of drafting Chase.  (it obviously wouldn't) We all laughed when they said GB upgraded their defense by signing Preston. 

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Some years its the Giants front four or the Cheifs high power offense, the Broncos pass rush or the balanced Steelers. Maybe its the patriots deep secondary or a run game like the titans.

 

There's no one way to get to the SB. No one way to win. Theres several winning coaching trees and new things happening all the time. 

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19 minutes ago, Mooka said:

 

That sounds like reactionary analysis with hindsight. Its a passing league heavily favoring the passing game and the QB position. Obviously any study will simply say you need a great QB and you need to protect said QB. Those studies are compiling stats after the fact; Its not a predictive analysis. 

 

You can't just create a pass rush by simply drafting a pass rusher. This team has had pass rushers. That we needed a Chase Young that would single-handily turn the corner for the defense was a fantasy conjured in our minds from watching years of mediocrity. As we all saw, Preston Smith appeared average on our team, and then looked like a completely different player in GB. Imagine we just signed Preston Smith from GB to fix this team's pass rushing problems instead of drafting Chase.  (it obviously wouldn't) We all laughed when they said GB upgraded their defense by signing Preston. 

 

What statistical analysis doesn't rely on hindsight for data points?

 

The point is that, in today's league, the quick passing game is so prevalent that it lessens the impact of a good pass rush.  That's why coverage is so important.  At the end of the day, the value of a good QB is the most important factor by far.  But it's interesting to see how people decide to rank the next most important positions, and it makes sense that they would be the positions that most directly affect the passing game, especially in a league that has mastered the quick passing attack.

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