JoggingGod

In what way is Kyle Smith GM material

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@Skinsinparadise and @Alcoholic Zebra   one of the things about Gruden we liked was his ability to scout, but i don't know where Kyle and the scouts had these guys rated. For all we know the scouts were the ones who went to the games, provided him with film and did the writeups and basically gave him a set of index cards and said "how would you rank these". Or more to this thread, we don't know that Kyle was against or not in favor of any of these guys. Did he want Perine or was that on the scouts? What were his failures? I give Kyle Smith credit because in large part he's in charge of the draft. And Quinn is a good example of a guy who we know Gruden likes (per the Doug Williams story), but Smith/Williams said "no wait, there are better guys right now". Are there examples of other guys he wanted that we didn't get and how did they turn out? We know how he felt about Haskins, but how was he on guys like Finley and Rudolph? I think hI remember reading about him and those two guys but how strong was it? 

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2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

@Skinsinparadise and @Alcoholic Zebra   one of the things about Gruden we liked was his ability to scout, but i don't know where Kyle and the scouts had these guys rated. For all we know the scouts were the ones who went to the games, provided him with film and did the writeups and basically gave him a set of index cards and said "how would you rank these". Or more to this thread, we don't know that Kyle was against or not in favor of any of these guys. Did he want Perine or was that on the scouts? What were his failures? I give Kyle Smith credit because in large part he's in charge of the draft. And Quinn is a good example of a guy who we know Gruden likes (per the Doug Williams story), but Smith/Williams said "no wait, there are better guys right now". Are there examples of other guys he wanted that we didn't get and how did they turn out? We know how he felt about Haskins, but how was he on guys like Finley and Rudolph? I think hI remember reading about him and those two guys but how strong was it? 

 

My thought on Jay is it doesn't matter.  He's had some successes, some failures.  He was though unusually regarded as a good evaluator for a coach.  Cooley wouyld often joke with him about it. 

 

But for what its worth, recalling pre-draft-post draft discussions from beat guys some of which Jay in different interviews confirmed.  

 

Jay liked: 

Dalvin Cook.

Reuben Foster 

Kyler Murray (this surprised me considering he succeeds in a different style offense)

Daniel Jones (which makes me cringe but he might end up right) 

Trey Quinn

Matt Ionnaidis

Cole Holcomb

 

I'll think about if others hit me.  

 

I think also we need to let the sample size expand some to jump to conclusions.  Moreau wasn't a playmaker at UCLA, that was a knock on him actually.  He had a bunch of INTs in a couple of games.  Is this the new Moreau?  Maybe.  Or it could be just a blip via two games.  Maybe years back when Chris Horton had 5 picks or something like that in a short stint and then he basically disappeared?  

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As far as what's been out draft wise from what I can recall, it's been those 3 players along with talking Dunbar into converting to CB.  Dunbar said publicly when Jay left that he owes him his career.

 

I don't think that's right.  I'm googling Dunbar's story and I'm getting conflicting reports.  I think both indicate it was a collective coaching effort.  Jay would get credit as the Head Coach, but I don't think it should be implied that anyone alone can take credit for pushing a player that wasn't even on the roster bubble as a WR, into a role where they might make the team because of injuries.

 

Story 1, we had a slew of CB injuries including some surprise ones that morning.  Several coaches went around asking if anyone could play CB for that day.  Dunbar said he played in highschool.

 

Story 2, special teams coaches loved how he jammed gunners in drills, and told defensive coaches they should give him a look.

 

I found the story about when he got promoted from the Practice Squad during his rookie season.  The team only had 3 healthy corners.  Chris Culliver, Will Blackmon, and Bashaud Breeland.

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@SkinsinparadiseAs much as our D has played better and Moreau has made some plays, these backup qbs have missed some throws and receivers have dropped some surprising ones too.  This secondary still needs work IMO.  
 

Back to the thread, the bottom line for me is that the team should have a scouting book on each of their scouts/decision-makers.  It really shouldn’t be hard for them to evaluate these guys in a way we never can.  
 

Again though, give me a GM that has a vision for the future (short and long term), can set his ego aside and trust his scouts and coaches and make decisions accordingly.  That kind of facilitator is what I want more than a guy that’s predominantly known for being a good scout.  

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Shanny on the radio touting Kyle Smith big time.  But said you have to let him do his thing and get out of the way.  He made it clear as heck that he wonders if they would get out of his way.  He also likes Schaffer in the FO for the role he performs.

 

He said Kyle was with him for 2 years and was blown away.   He works his tail off.  He thinks he's special at what he does.  I've heard him before make inferences that he's sort of like a Sean McVay type but as a GM. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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On 11/3/2019 at 8:07 PM, Burgundy Yoda said:

I'll give you Dunny. One game isn't enough of a sample size for Apke in my opinion, he's looked terrible in way more games than he's looked good. The others haven't played enough either imo. 

 

I just think we're trash at developing players. There may be a few that breakthrough here and there but the majority of our players never seem to take that next step. It's so rare for one of our players to go from good to great it seems like. 

 

 

 

In fairness, we've seen players go elsewhere and thrive.  The players we have been picking have not been bad, we just don't use them.  We can't blame Kyle Smith for that...

 

The last few drafts have been very good imho, and he's been in his position as director of college scouting for 2 years now.  

 

  Misc       Passing Rushing Receiving      
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2019 1 Dwayne Haskins 15 QB 2019 0 0 0 0 6 72 133 801 2 6 16 76 0           Ohio St.
2019 1 Montez Sweat 26 DE 2019 0 0 1 0 12                         5.0 Mississippi St.
2019 3 Terry McLaurin 76 WR 2019 0 0 1 0 11                 42 646 5     Ohio St.
2019 4 Bryce Love 112 RB   0 0 0                               Stanford
2019 4 Wes Martin 131 G 2019 0 0 0 0 5                           Indiana
2019 5 Ross Pierschbacher 153 G 2019 0 0 0 0 5                           Alabama
2019 5 Cole Holcomb 173 LB 2019 0 0 1 0 12                         1.0 North Carolina
2019 6 Kelvin Harmon 206 WR 2019 0 0 1 0 12                 19 222 0     North Carolina St.
2019 7 Jimmy Moreland 227 CB 2019 0 0 0 0 12                           James Madison
2019 7 Jordan Brailford 253 DE   0 0 0                               Oklahoma St.
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2018 1 Da'Ron Payne 13 DT 2019 0 0 2 8 27                         6.0 Alabama
2018 2 Derrius Guice 59 RB 2019 0 0 0 0 4           37 203 2 7 79 1     LSU
2018 3 Geron Christian 74 T 2019 0 0 0 0 14                           Louisville
2018 4 Troy Apke 109 S 2019 0 0 0 0 14                       1   Penn St.
2018 5 Tim Settle 163 DT 2019 0 0 0 1 27                         1.0 Virginia Tech
2018 6 Shaun Dion Hamilton 197 LB 2019 0 0 0 3 28                       1 2.5 Alabama
2018 7 Greg Stroman 241 CB 2019 0 0 0 2 16                       1   Virginia Tech
2018 7 Trey Quinn 256 WR 2019 0 0 1 1 15           1 0 0 35 273 2     SMU
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2017 1 Jonathan Allen 17 DE 2019 0 0 2 10 32                         14.0 Alabama
2017 2 Ryan Anderson 49 OLB 2019 0 0 0 2 39                         3.0 Alabama
2017 3 Fabian Moreau 81 CB 2019 0 0 2 5 42                       4   UCLA
2017 4 Samaje Perine 114 RB 2019 0 0 1 5 27           183 635 1 25 187 1     Oklahoma
2017 4 Montae Nicholson 123 S 2019 0 0 1 6 32                       3   Michigan St.
2017 5 Jeremy Sprinkle 154 TE 2019 0 0 1 0 39                 26 250 3     Arkansas
2017 6 Chase Roullier 199 C 2019 0 0 2 10 39                           Wyoming
2017 6 Robert Davis 209 WR 2019 0 0 0 0 4                 1 11 0     Georgia St.
2017 7 Josh Harvey-Clemons 230 S 2019 0 0 0 2 34                         1.5 Louisville
2017 7 Joshua Holsey 235 DB 2018 0 0 0 1 13                           Auburn

 

 

Looking at that, The only players who are not currently contributing to this team is Wes Martin / Ross Pierschbacher (rookie back ups due to Flowers developing at guard), Jordan Bailford (7th round), Samaje Perine (No longer on team), and Joshua Holsey (7th round).  Also Robert Davis just absolutely cannot stay healthy, but has shown promise when he plays.  Can't kill Smith for not being able to see an injury future. 

 

Most of the rest of those players are contributing in some capacity... something that we have not seen prior to him taking that position.  I don't know if he's ready to be a GM yet, but I think he's got an eye for football.  

 

My only fear is that if he was to get elevated, he perpetuates a broken system, because he's been here for so long.  I wouldn't mind bringing in a GM, or even elevating Eric Schaeffer, and making Kyle Smith director of Player Personnel.  Give him a couple years to keep evaluating talent and building a roster.  

Edited by OVCChairman
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On 11/3/2019 at 8:48 PM, Thinking Skins said:

The problem with Kyle is that he's improved our drafts from being in the D/F range to being in probably a C+/B- range. We are good at getting depth guys and having a full 53 that's not overly lapping in gaps, but not forming a strong unit or a strong team. Our DL was supposed to be dominant but its just OK. Before Kyle we'd get a first rounder who was generally a good pick and then almost nothing, save a special teamer here or there. Now we're getting constant contributions from 6th and 7th rounders but its not like its stuff that's going to take us to the playoffs. Its stuff that says, "oh he's a good center who in a re-draft may be a 4th rounder". 

 

And the thing real bad thing is that we've been in such a draft drought that we're calling these mediocre drafts as great.

 

I still think he's the best guy for the job, but he's not the best guy in the league or anything like that. 

 

Hmm - the last 3 drafts have provided what could be a decent nucleus for this team if they keep drafting well, have decent coaches & some semblance of good health.

 

I don't agree with your take that the D line is "just OK".  Sure they have made some mistakes, but they have been brilliant at times.  They appeared to improve once there were changes with the LBs & DBs.  Just not having Norman in the lineup makes the rest of the defense that much better.  They need to get more consistent, but they should be fine & this unit was primarily built in the last 3 drafts.  Ditto for some of the other DBs & players like Sweat who may just need nothing more than a good offseason to establish himself.  These are very young guys - not all of them are going to be great in their rookie years.

 

The last draft could also supply the bulk of the Skins WR corps with McClaurin & Harmon.  With any type of health Guice could be a beast & who knows Love may also contribute.  Haskins is still TBD in spite of the noise from naysayers.  Let's see how he looks after this offseason.  They obviously need help w/ O line & TE in the drafts, but that can be addressed moving fwd.

 

I don't necessarily have any real issues with recent drafts.  My major issue with Allen are all of these big splashes over the recent past (T. Williams situation, Cousins situation, long term signing of A. Smith, Norman signing, not syncing up w/ Gruden on Haskins pick, etc).  The drafts on their own have not been too bad & like most teams there will always be some bad with the good - nobody drafts perfectly. We will see.

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26 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

In fairness, we've seen players go elsewhere and thrive.  The players we have been picking have not been bad, we just don't use them.  We can't blame Kyle Smith for that...

The last few drafts have been very good imho, and he's been in his position as director of college scouting for 2 years now.  

My only fear is that if he was to get elevated, he perpetuates a broken system, because he's been here for so long.  I wouldn't mind bringing in a GM, or even elevating Eric Schaeffer, and making Kyle Smith director of Player Personnel.  Give him a couple years to keep evaluating talent and building a roster.  

 

On the other hand, the inside guys of quality already know what needs to be fixed.  Snyder needs to keep the football guys and get rid of the name-sakes from the Skins glory years.  Promoting Kyle Smith to Director of Player Personnel would be a natural progression.  But if he's great at that role then it will be difficult to retain him because other teams will want him as GM.  Schaeffer is the contracts guy and I believe highly respected but I'm not sure whether he has any experience building a roster.  

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4 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

 

On the other hand, the inside guys of quality already know what needs to be fixed.  Snyder needs to keep the football guys and get rid of the name-sakes from the Skins glory years.  Promoting Kyle Smith to Director of Player Personnel would be a natural progression.  But if he's great at that role then it will be difficult to retain him because other teams will want him as GM.  Schaeffer is the contracts guy and I believe highly respected but I'm not sure whether he has any experience building a roster.  

 

Absolutely.... Do you think Smith leapfrogs Schaffer? 

Edited by OVCChairman

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6 minutes ago, dicksogj said:

I don't necessarily have any real issues with recent drafts.  My major issue with Allen are all of these big splashes over the recent past (T. Williams situation, Cousins situation, long term signing of A. Smith, Norman signing, not syncing up w/ Gruden on Haskins pick, etc).  The drafts on their own have not been too bad & like most teams there will always be some bad with the good - nobody drafts perfectly. We will see.

 

All of the issues you identified are examples of the long term issue for the team.  The bone-headed decisions happen over and over because the Skins have lacked a quality GM and no one has been able to keep Snyder (or those trying to please him) from acting on ill thought out whims.  The last two drafts have been great IMO.  Take a look at NE or any of the other top teams and you will see that they often miss on 50% of the picks.    

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6 minutes ago, dicksogj said:

 

Hmm - the last 3 drafts have provided what could be a decent nucleus for this team if they keep drafting well, have decent coaches & some semblance of good health.

 

I don't agree with your take that the D line is "just OK".  Sure they have made some mistakes, but they have been brilliant at times.  They appeared to improve once there were changes with the LBs & DBs.  Just not having Norman in the lineup makes the rest of the defense that much better.  They need to get more consistent, but they should be fine & this unit was primarily built in the last 3 drafts.  Ditto for some of the other DBs & players like Sweat who may just need nothing more than a good offseason to establish himself.  These are very young guys - not all of them are going to be great in their rookie years.

 

The last draft could also supply the bulk of the Skins WR corps with McClaurin & Harmon.  With any type of health Guice could be a beast & who knows Love may also contribute.  Haskins is still TBD in spite of the noise from naysayers.  Let's see how he looks after this offseason.  They obviously need help w/ O line & TE in the drafts, but that can be addressed moving fwd.

 

I don't necessarily have any real issues with recent drafts.  My major issue with Allen are all of these big splashes over the recent past (T. Williams situation, Cousins situation, long term signing of A. Smith, Norman signing, not syncing up w/ Gruden on Haskins pick, etc).  The drafts on their own have not been too bad & like most teams there will always be some bad with the good - nobody drafts perfectly. We will see.

 

In fairness the Norman signing was on GMSM, if you want to blame for Norman being still around at this stage of his contract then fair enough blame BA but I don't believe he signed him.

 

Also I think it is hard to truly judge Alex Smith as just 'after timing' because of the hole we ended up in with his injury which was extreme. Our other options in free agency would have been Keenum, Bradford or a Bridgewater with injury concerns (at that stage), or alternatively Colt McCoy until injured.

 

We could have been picking the 5th QB of the draft which wouldn't have been ideal & I dare say he may not have done as well if landed here at that time 

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2 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

Absolutely.... Do you think Smith leapfrogs Schaffer? 

 

Good question.  I don't think the Skins should make any decisions based on the desire to excite the fans.  But Smith would do that IMO.  Of course, it's possible a completely different GM would keep them both in their current positions.  

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5 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

 

Good question.  I don't think the Skins should make any decisions based on the desire to excite the fans.  But Smith would do that IMO.  Of course, it's possible a completely different GM would keep them both in their current positions.  

 


The sad thing is I think they make ALL decisions to 'excite fans.'  The problem is that they're misguided in those decisions.  I think they believe bringing in an expensive GM who sells tickets is the excitement they believe the fans want.  The hot shot, big name coach.  The 'pedigree' guy.  Someone they can print on tickets and paint a picture of on the side of the stadium.  


When in reality, the excitement from the fans would have been greater if we were developing our talent, on the field as well as at Redskins park.  Promoting Smith to GM could excite fans the 'right' way... but they don't see it that way.  They likely write Smith off as a young scout who has worked for them for 9 years.  Similar to how management tends to take their own guys for granted, and often looks at what other guys are doing and trying to emulate that.  

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Just now, RandyHolt said:

He is a GM candidate because he is not Bruce Allen. 

 

That is good enough for me.

 

Well, Bruce Allen wasn't Vinny Cerrato 10 years ago...

 

I like Kyle Smith's eye for talent. I think his drafts have been excellent--both in terms of talent and value. It's up the the coaching staff to develop the players...
Promote him before we lose him.

 

Unfortunately, it's still Snyder doing the picking so...

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6 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

Well, Bruce Allen wasn't Vinny Cerrato 10 years ago...

 

I like Kyle Smith's eye for talent. I think his drafts have been excellent--both in terms of talent and value. It's up the the coaching staff to develop the players...
Promote him before we lose him.

 

Unfortunately, it's still Snyder doing the picking so...

 

I suspect Synder is interfering at the 11th hour, with our top pick.  A year of researching and scouting, only to see the entire draft plan thrown into disarray.  It's likely not fair to grade Kyle under such dysfunctional meddling.

Edited by RandyHolt

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1 minute ago, RandyHolt said:

 

I suspect Synder is interfering at the 11th hour, with our top pick.  A year of researching and scouting, only to see the entire draft plan thrown into disarray.

 

Entirely possible. Nothing is out of the realm of possibility here

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Both the Caps and Nats won championships after promoting guys within their organizations to GM roles.

 

Just sayin...

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4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Both the Caps and Nats won championships after promoting guys within their organizations to GM roles.

 

Just sayin...

 

With competent, invested, sane owners.

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I would say that for the overwhelming majority of us, we would have had a hard time telling ourselves what made any competent GM seem like "GM material" before they were first hired...so I'm not sure that should be considered a detriment against Kyle Smith. I do know that he's been given more responsibilities and has been promoted and our drafts seem to have noticeably improved right along with it. With his father being a former successful GM, he also has a pedigree and lineage that could offer him some valuable insights into the position. And I like seeing competence in the organization given a chance and rewarded. So if Smith is named GM, I'd be happy.

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1 hour ago, dicksogj said:

I don't agree with your take that the D line is "just OK".  Sure they have made some mistakes, but they have been brilliant at times.  They appeared to improve once there were changes with the LBs & DBs.  Just not having Norman in the lineup makes the rest of the defense that much better.  They need to get more consistent, but they should be fine & this unit was primarily built in the last 3 drafts.  Ditto for some of the other DBs & players like Sweat who may just need nothing more than a good offseason to establish himself.  These are very young guys - not all of them are going to be great in their rookie years.

 

 

I definitely agree with you for the most part. I think our DL has the potential to be dominant. In all honesty I was saying that it should be so good that it didn't matter who was in at DC, and that's kinda how its been since the benching of Norman. But where was this line before the benching. I think individually we have good talent, but they are not gamechangers, and a guy like Allen is somebody we thought would be a gamechanger. 

 

And I wouldn't even discount Sweat this year. Compare his rookie year to Preston Smith's and they're about equal. Remember Preston only had 8 sacks his rookie year and 5 came in the last 3 games. We're seeing Sweat emerge right now (I'm still reading through some articles that are addressing his play last game and lately). I don't remember hearing Smith being a bust before those last 3 games. 

 

I'm definitely in the Smith camp. I remember when we named Doug Williams, the thing that inspired me from the press conference was that Doug immediately named Smith. I think he's probably a really talented young mind and the fact that he's in house makes it even more likely that we can bring him in as our GM. That said, I think its natural to ask questions about the type of players he goes after and how that fits into our philosophy as a team? For example, I love Ron Rivera as a coach but I wonder about him here because his defenses have always been zone dependent and (aside from Norman) we've always drafted corners who are better in man. I don't know if zone is "easier" than man, and thus if our guys can play in a Rivera scheme but is that something that needs to be addressed and how well would Smith do at finding players who are more versatile or fit better into a different scheme? 

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1 hour ago, PlayAction said:

On the other hand, the inside guys of quality already know what needs to be fixed.  Snyder needs to keep the football guys and get rid of the name-sakes from the Skins glory years.  Promoting Kyle Smith to Director of Player Personnel would be a natural progression.  But if he's great at that role then it will be difficult to retain him because other teams will want him as GM.  Schaeffer is the contracts guy and I believe highly respected but I'm not sure whether he has any experience building a roster.  

 

I don't get the love for Schaeffer. I know he can do contracts, but maybe I'm naive, but how difficult is that? We don't hear people getting so excited about great contracts. But scouts and gms are the ones who get praised for the great drafts and such. I think I'd put Santos above Schaeffer in terms of my GM list. And if promoting Schaeffer caused us to lose Smith and go back to bad drafts - a lot of which which Schaeffer was here for, I think I would go back to my feeling of despair for the front office. Its like, right now the shining star is Kyle Smith. Everybody else can kick rocks for all i care. But Kyle Smith needs to have a freakin monument in his honor for the turnaround he's done in this team, especially working under Bruce. 

 

And this is in addition to what I said earlier about Kyle's drafts being good not great. The fact that we went from Casserly's drafts to Vinny's non-drafts to Gibbs's drafting special teams players to Shanny getting picks but no players, to a guy who's getting contributors who are actually a part of my hope for next season. (and I think this late season surge is different than the late season surge in 2011 where we had contributions from so many guys who we knew wouldn't be on our team the next year). 

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3 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

I don't get the love for Schaeffer. I know he can do contracts, but maybe I'm naive, but how difficult is that? We don't hear people getting so excited about great contracts. But scouts and gms are the ones who get praised for the great drafts and such. I think I'd put Santos above Schaeffer in terms of my GM list. And if promoting Schaeffer caused us to lose Smith and go back to bad drafts - a lot of which which Schaeffer was here for, I think I would go back to my feeling of despair for the front office. Its like, right now the shining star is Kyle Smith. Everybody else can kick rocks for all i care. But Kyle Smith needs to have a freakin monument in his honor for the turnaround he's done in this team, especially working under Bruce. 

 

And this is in addition to what I said earlier about Kyle's drafts being good not great. The fact that we went from Casserly's drafts to Vinny's non-drafts to Gibbs's drafting special teams players to Shanny getting picks but no players, to a guy who's getting contributors who are actually a part of my hope for next season. (and I think this late season surge is different than the late season surge in 2011 where we had contributions from so many guys who we knew wouldn't be on our team the next year). 

 

 

I think Schaffer's allure is the fact that we've managed a cap and been at least relevant (for the most part) despite some handicapping penalties.  I think he's a great cap guy who has been forced to work within a system that sets the team up to fail.  When Bruce is going to Schaffer and basically forcing him to work the numbers to get Smith here.  Schaffer gets the numbers, he's just been asked to make them work in questionable situations.  

 

I agree with you that Smith is the priority.  I commented earlier about elevating Schaffer to GM and Smith to Pro Personnel, simply based on the natural progression.  At the end of the day I would choose Smith over Schaffer, but that's just me.  

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Schaffer, as a salary cap guy / lawyer, is more of a commodity than someone who can assess personnel like Smith. In that sense, if you have to choose one, you choose Smith. You could also go with a paradigm where Schaffer is President and Smith is GM so both guys get title bumps

 

I also have to say that this 2019 draft, even if Haskins doesn't pan out, could shape up to be one of the best drafts this team has had in the Snyder tenure. You already have 2 hits in McLaurin and Holcomb. These two will be bedrocks for a while, assuming health. On that, how often has this team found bedrocks after rd. 1? On top of this, this team likely hits on Sweat and Harmon with year 2 upside coming from guys like Wes Martin and Bryce Love once they get opportunities

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2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

I think I'd put Santos above Schaeffer in terms of my GM list. And if promoting Schaeffer caused us to lose Smith and go back to bad drafts - a lot of which which Schaeffer was here for, I think I would go back to my feeling of despair for the front office. Its like, right now the shining star is Kyle Smith. Everybody else can kick rocks for all i care. But Kyle Smith needs to have a freakin monument in his honor for the turnaround he's done in this team, especially working under Bruce. 

 

I don't think Schaeffer has been involved in any of the drafts so I agree with your concerns.  I am not sure about Santos.  The Skins have been notoriously bad at free agent signings.  Not the cheap guys obtained mid-year but the big name free agents that are supposed to be the "fix".  Those big signings may not be his fault.  Still, I'm not willing to take the chance.  I would rather have Smith.  

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