Metskins Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 If he was so well regarded, some other team that actually knows about football talent would have scooped him up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itoolu Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Anyone who stays with this organization for more than a couple of years are just yes men/losers, simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carex Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 14 minutes ago, Itoolu said: Anyone who stays with this organization for more than a couple of years are just yes men/losers, simple as that. I just so LOOOVVVVEEEEE that line of thinking that makes it impossible for the Redskins to actually improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commander -JB- Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Kyle Smith won’t be promoted with the Redskins because of the Dan Snyder/Bruce Allen marriage. He will most likely be poached by another team and have a successful career elsewhere. Just like McVay. Just like Kyle Shanahan. Just like John Schneider years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 The problem with Kyle is that he's improved our drafts from being in the D/F range to being in probably a C+/B- range. We are good at getting depth guys and having a full 53 that's not overly lapping in gaps, but not forming a strong unit or a strong team. Our DL was supposed to be dominant but its just OK. Before Kyle we'd get a first rounder who was generally a good pick and then almost nothing, save a special teamer here or there. Now we're getting constant contributions from 6th and 7th rounders but its not like its stuff that's going to take us to the playoffs. Its stuff that says, "oh he's a good center who in a re-draft may be a 4th rounder". And the thing real bad thing is that we've been in such a draft drought that we're calling these mediocre drafts as great. I still think he's the best guy for the job, but he's not the best guy in the league or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 4 hours ago, posse87 said: I don’t need a bunch of big names. I’d be satisfied with Kyle being promoted to GM with Shaffer managing contracts and the cap and promoting O’Connell to HC and a strong experienced DC. And give them 3-5 years to work together Promoting O'Connell to HC seems super premature to me. He hasn't even proven himself to be a competent OC (and we're not even sure how much play calling he's actually doing at the moment), and we're now ready to elevate him to HC? I think we got starry eyed after McVay turned out to be a wunderkind and hated that he left so some just assume/hope the next young OC will be along the same lines but that's a huge leap. McVay was OC for 3 years and called plays for 2 (and proved himself to be outstanding at it) before he was offered a HC job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE HAMMER'IN HOG Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 In the same way that any other GM's on the Redskins throughout the years; they scout, they evaluate, then they draw up a draft board...then Snyder show's up and say's; "I'm taking this guy, this guy, and this guy, your evaluation skills are meaningless to me!!!" 😝 His preference? Players with cool nicknames, and those who have overstayed their welcome in the NFL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 3 hours ago, carex said: for years people criticized us for not trying to get comp picks. To get comp picks we have to let people go We didn't get comp picks because the grass was always greener in the other yard. Yes we'd let our players go but would always sign even more free agents. And to add insult to injury we not only didn't get the Comp picks but the FAs we signed were generally inferior to FAs we let go (and to pile on - we even paid more for the inferior talent). 2 hours ago, mistertim said: Promoting O'Connell to HC seems super premature to me. He hasn't even proven himself to be a competent OC (and we're not even sure how much play calling he's actually doing at the moment), and we're now ready to elevate him to HC? I think we got starry eyed after McVay turned out to be a wunderkind and hated that he left so some just assume/hope the next young OC will be along the same lines but that's a huge leap. McVay was OC for 3 years and called plays for 2 (and proved himself to be outstanding at it) before he was offered a HC job. If we're sticking with Allen may as well stick with Callahan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 3 hours ago, carex said: I just so LOOOVVVVEEEEE that line of thinking that makes it impossible for the Redskins to actually improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bunny Kelly Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 9 hours ago, carex said: Lorenzo Alexander left long before Jay, he was lost because of the cap penalty, and Roberts wasn't great with us. Seriously we signed Desean jackson the same offseason and people's response to Andre was basically "we would have been in so much trouble if the Eagles hadn't let Jackson go." Also Andre is on like his fourth team since he left us for years people criticized us for not trying to get comp picks. To get comp picks we have to let people go Individually I couldn't complain with the FO letting any of them walk, my point was on the coaching staff not getting more out of them. Nsekhe was maybe looking for more money but as swing tackle we could have given him a shot against Moses who has been ropey since before Nsekhe left. Roberts was fairly brutal for us so that one is certainly on the FO for signing him but the coaching staff got nothing out of him & he has since gone on to make the pro bowl with special teams. Murphy a 2nd round pick bar one season we really didn't get enough out of. Fair enough on Zo, hard not to throw him in when we have so many other ex skins on their team! To be honest I don't know how they these players have done individually but the Bills are 6-2 trying to run the ball & play solid D, Jay's mantra for years And finally to bring in it back on topic of the thread, it is so hard to judge the talent evaluation if the players are not being set up to succeed by the decent coaching that gets the best out of the players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
posse87 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 9 hours ago, mistertim said: Promoting O'Connell to HC seems super premature to me. He hasn't even proven himself to be a competent OC (and we're not even sure how much play calling he's actually doing at the moment), and we're now ready to elevate him to HC? I think we got starry eyed after McVay turned out to be a wunderkind and hated that he left so some just assume/hope the next young OC will be along the same lines but that's a huge leap. McVay was OC for 3 years and called plays for 2 (and proved himself to be outstanding at it) before he was offered a HC job. I'm fine with letting him walk too or keeping him as OC for the next coach. I pretty much feel indifference about the team at this point. They need to earn my fandom back. I just don't believe any good coaching candidates will want this job, particularly if Bruce is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 16 hours ago, Thinking Skins said: The problem with Kyle is that he's improved our drafts from being in the D/F range to being in probably a C+/B- range. We are good at getting depth guys and having a full 53 that's not overly lapping in gaps, but not forming a strong unit or a strong team. Our DL was supposed to be dominant but its just OK. Before Kyle we'd get a first rounder who was generally a good pick and then almost nothing, save a special teamer here or there. Now we're getting constant contributions from 6th and 7th rounders but its not like its stuff that's going to take us to the playoffs. Its stuff that says, "oh he's a good center who in a re-draft may be a 4th rounder". And the thing real bad thing is that we've been in such a draft drought that we're calling these mediocre drafts as great. I still think he's the best guy for the job, but he's not the best guy in the league or anything like that. I am close to this point but I'd grade him higher. I'd say B to B plus. Kyle hasn't broken the barrier (no one under Dan has perhaps save Shanny when he took Trent ironically) of finding super stars. But I do think some overestimate how many players you are supposed to generate from each draft. From time to time I like to post the article below. The odds for success per round is much lower than I think some perceive it to be. I mention this because from time to time I read people killing them for how can they blow a third round pick and stuff like that? Well, the odds are most teams blow more third round picks than they succeed. As Kiper and others have said it you get 2-3 starters out of a draft, you've done good. You'll have more busts than successes. https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://theriotreport.com/scout-camp-2018-about-the-author/ Of the 223 first round picks over the past seven years, 120 have averaged an AV of 5 or more for their careers so far; that’s good for a 53% success rate. The numbers are also extremely consistent year-to-year. 2013 unsurprisingly had the lowest success rate, but that was still 47% and no year managed to get as high as 60%. Even 2011, the draft class that has become famous for being loaded with talent, had its fair share of busts; let’s not forget that Jake Locker was drafted eighth overall. Now, there are some who will argue that teams often reach for a quarterback in the first round, and that swinging for a signal caller is what drags these numbers down to some extent; however, the numbers just don’t bear this argument out, first round quarterbacks actually have a success rate of 60%, they are in fact dragging the numbers up. Interestingly, this success rate continues to be low even at the very top of the draft. While there does appear to be a dropoff at the end of the draft, even in the top 10, the numbers are very poor. What I mean to show from this, however, is not that everything is impossible and that we should all give up, but rather that the conventions and techniques that have been used in most of scouting in recent years are far from perfect, and that maybe, just maybe, it might be worth trying something else. We overestimate how likely it is for a young player to become a contributor to a professional team because it is easy to think of examples of professional players. Scouts should be aware of the base rates, for example how likely it is for a drafted player to play in the league for at least 5 years. The numbers of players in a particular draft class that a scout predicts will be valuable NFL contributors should be close to the base rate, allowing for some variation.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 In Smith’s defense the past two... maybe three drafts have been rated really highly and you can see flashes of that talent. That said, the talent is tough to grade because the coaching is really THAT BAD. I think the coaching and play calling pulls everything down at least a letter grade. We we do have holes and there were obvious areas the team chose not too address, but the draft side has lifted its weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Burgold said: In Smith’s defense the past two... maybe three drafts have been rated really highly and you can see flashes of that talent. That said, the talent is tough to grade because the coaching is really THAT BAD. I think the coaching and play calling pulls everything down at least a letter grade. We we do have holes and there were obvious areas the team chose not too address, but the draft side has lifted its weight. Jay is the problem seems to be a theme with you. If so if anything you should feel optimistic. He's gone. Things should now be OK, then, no? Unless am misreading you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Hypothetical quote from Bruce Allen: "Why do we need to promote Kyle Smith to general manager? We already have a general manager. His name is Doug Will-ams. Perhaps you've heard of him. He won a Super Bowl for this team in 1982...or 1991, I'm not sure. When you're THISCLOSE, you don't want screw things up by making any changes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: Jay is the problem seems to be a theme with you. If so if anything you should feel optimistic. He's gone. Things should now be OK, then, no? Unless am misreading you. I feel more hopeful yeah, but we still are suffering a legacy effect for at least the remainder of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Burgold said: I feel more hopeful yeah, but we still are suffering a legacy effect for at least the remainder of this season. I don't feel the same on that front but to each their own on that. But if I felt Jay was that level of a buffoon then these mostly 8-8 type seasons were the equivalent of 11-5 with a coach that I'd deem competent I presume? If I felt that way I'd be lionizing Kyle Smith and the whole FO for killing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said: I don't feel the same on that front but to each their own on that. But if I felt Jay was that level of a buffoon then these mostly 8-8 type seasons were the equivalent of 11-5 with a coach that I'd deem competent I presume? If I felt that way I'd be lionizing Kyle Smith and the whole FO for killing it. And I'm cool with that. For most of his tenure here, I thought Jay was a C+ coach. That is, a bit better than average, but good enough to build the team up from awful to average, but without the wherewithal to take the next step from average to good or great. Last season partly due to the injuries and partly because of another awful d coordinator hire, I thought he began really falling apart. Now, one can argue he managed a herculean coaching fete to make that team competitive given its handicaps/injuries and I really can't/won't argue it, but I thought he lost something too. This season, I think he knew he was going to be fired, saw the writing on the wall, and while he didn't coach to be fired did run through the motions. More, all his worst tendencies became really pronounced (IE system over personnel, play calling, time management, sloppy discipline, letting his players run rough shod over him, etc.) So this year, I think he was awful. I saw it coming. I'm not happy about being right, but he was terrible. If you want to argue that the team isn't better without him, I'd argue that they are a little better both offensively and defensively, but I also would probably concede the point. Then again, this is Jay's staff and they are mostly running Jay's program with a bit more attention to the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stone Cold Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 19 hours ago, Metskins said: If he was so well regarded, some other team that actually knows about football talent would have scooped him up. Usually, the teams that know about football aren’t hiring...so there’s that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Burgold said: And I'm cool with that. For most of his tenure here, I thought Jay was a C+ coach. That is, a bit better than average, but good enough to build the team up from awful to average, but without the wherewithal to take the next step from average to good or great. Last season partly due to the injuries and partly because of another awful d coordinator hire, I thought he began really falling apart. Now, one can argue he managed a herculean coaching fete to make that team competitive given its handicaps/injuries and I really can't/won't argue it, but I thought he lost something too. This season, I think he knew he was going to be fired, saw the writing on the wall, and while he didn't coach to be fired did run through the motions. More, all his worst tendencies became really pronounced (IE system over personnel, play calling, time management, sloppy discipline, letting his players run rough shod over him, etc.) So this year, I think he was awful. I saw it coming. I'm not happy about being right, but he was terrible. If you want to argue that the team isn't better without him, I'd argue that they are a little better both offensively and defensively, but I also would probably concede the point. Then again, this is Jay's staff and they are mostly running Jay's program with a bit more attention to the run. That's actually a mostly positive portrayal of Jay. Above average = good. As for what you didn't like: last season things indeed fell apart as soon as the injuries kicked in but it's not easy to win with your 3rd-4th string QB -- tough enough with your 2nd. I think the first half of that season was a bit overhyped in retrospect. But if players stayed healthy I'd think they'd at least repeat their 8-8 type streak and maybe even have snuck into the playoffs. As for this season - I think part of that was about the roster being overestimated. The whole Bruce we are close narrative, etc. I think Jay bought into it, too. People who covered the team said they all had high expectations and were shocked by the bad start. And I presume it was demoralizing when you think you are really good and find out you aren't. The thing is though all of those teams IMO they played during Jay's run this season were distinctly better than our team maybe with the exception of the Giants. But Keenum was horrendous in the Giants game. I just don't think you can win in this league with Jag Qbs. Shanny is a brilliant offensive mind and he didn't win here either with Jag Qb play -- its not that different now than the Rex-Beck era. Only hope is Haskins emerges. I definitely wouldn't agree they've been better with Callahan as to the offense. Callahan's offense thus far has been beyond just bad -- its been historically bad. But yeah the defense has improved i think mainly for being more well rested -- thanks for the heavy emphasis on the run, etc. I've never been married to Jay or for that matter any coach here. Do I think there are better HC's out there? Yes. But as long as we got this same FO, i don't think we are going to get the best out of any of these HCs or even attract high end coaches anymore. Will see. I know some get bitter when some make that point and rally around how much they don't like the coach in question and we can't blame the FO for their weaknesses. And heck I get that (I've done it, too) but how about all the other coaches who coached here? Jay isn't the first HC who hasn't succeeded here. And heck even if I put it on the coaches, then who is hiring these supposed duds again and again and again? My point is regardless of the narrative it falls back to the FO/owner. That's partly why I am a hire a real FO guy to run the team and let that dude hire whichever HC they like kind of guy. Bringing this back to Kyle. I'll start with he's a real personnel guy. So he has me at hello. That in itself would bring a radical change. Bruce is a business guy/politician. On occasion, non-personnel guys are good at overseeing personnel but those dudes are typically exceptionally competent. Bruce IMO isn't that. According to some who cover the team the 2nd best personnel guy in the building after Kyle was Jay. A personnel guy from another team actually said to ESPN that Jay was the best at it in the building. Jay was for example the guy who spotted Ioannidis and Holcomb, etc. So it should be interesting to see how it goes with Jay gone. I get some say Kyle is overrated. He might be. But I think he's the best thing we got going in that FO and I'd roll the dice in heartbeat with him over the status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Oh, I'm on the hire a "real front office guy" train, too. As for my focus on Jay, I think there are a couple of additional factors in play. One, I attended something called Viable Paradise and wound up missing the two games before Buffalo. So, my impression of Callahan was the win against Miami and yesterday. Both those games were superior to all the Jay games (this year). Two... and this is the more important one... I need some Redskins' hope. If I can pin my misery on Jay then there's a light at the end of the tunnel. That's not saying I want Bruce to stay. I want him gone as much or more than I wanted Jay gone. It's just that the idea that we drafted well, have talent in the cupboard that might entice a new coach with potential to come on board, and that there is something not broken in Redskinsland is useful to my fandom's sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bunny Kelly Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Jay may have been a good personal guy & helped with the draft but he didn't appear to be a good coach, the impressions left from his practices didn't sound like they were working too hard to 'coach them up' We know Jay loved to look at tape & maybe he could read the game well but that quality is maybe more suitedto Front Office or TV work not improving what players you are given & getting the most out of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE HAMMER'IN HOG Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Jay's offense was productive when McVay was running it, once he left and Jay assumed play calling again...it was all down hill! Jay IMO is a lot like Norv, he has a system, and runs that system no matter what the personel, or according to the opposing defenses strengths, once teams get a read on it they have a pretty good idea where the routes are going, along with the play calling tendencies, and Jay couldn't adjust, and I don't see anything different from the current coaches!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Bunny Kelly said: Jay may have been a good personal guy & helped with the draft but he didn't appear to be a good coach, the impressions left from his practices didn't sound like they were working too hard to 'coach them up' I don't live and die with Jay so I'll start with that. I've watched though about 10 training camp practices and a Friday practice before game day. Jay is very active in those practices especially as a teacher. He's running all over the field and even participating in those exercises. Whether he runs good practices or not, I got no idea because I have no reference to compare. But he's definitely an energetic presence in practice and distinctly more so than the assistant coaches. Callahan is a different cat. I've watched him work with the O line. He's actually more quiet and less demonstrative than Jay from what I observed. His mantra seems to be "more" is better and he kept his position guys there longer. Callahan's results thus far to me are lacking. Small sample so I'll give him a break though. It's nice to have all the rhetoric of them being meaner, faster, stronger but to me it still has to result in something. More importantly, the new sheriff in town rhetoric doesn't move me anymore. Really EVERY new coach on both sides of the ball comes with rhetoric that they will improve on the predecessor. It's natural. If I am taking over a job from a dude that just was fired, am not telling my boss, hey I am doing it all the same way but instead I'll stress about how I'll do it different. And different = better at least at the time. But the results don't necessarily follow. It's almost comical how each defensive coordinator we hired said at the time of the hire that they will be more aggressive and bring a feistier attitude than the predecessor. Then we all bemoan how conservative said coordinator is over time and clamor for the next guy who claims how more aggressive he'd be. Rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dicksogj Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 On 11/3/2019 at 7:39 PM, carex said: Lorenzo Alexander left long before Jay, he was lost because of the cap penalty, and Roberts wasn't great with us. Seriously we signed Desean jackson the same offseason and people's response to Andre was basically "we would have been in so much trouble if the Eagles hadn't let Jackson go." Also Andre is on like his fourth team since he left us https://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_career.html Roberts has basically done nothing for the Bills this season. He had a few decent years returning punts & kicks prior to that. He has basically been invisible as a WR since his first year with the Redskins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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