GhostofSparta

The Official 2020 Draft Positioning Thread: We're #2!

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15 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

You don't take WR's that high, especially when you are working with multiple deep WR drafts, and that's what we have in '19-'20-'21. It's just not a sufficient return on the investment. Grab your QB, DT, Edge, OT, or shut down corner, sure, but it doesn't make sense to be taking a WR that high, especially in such a deep draft at the position, again. Lots of options at WR, plenty will be available in round 2 (if we acquire a 2nd) and in the 3rd as well as in 2021. 

Larry Fitzgerald? Calvin Johnson? Julio Jones? I get it though but if you have that kind of talent there and he is far better ranked than the other prospects I wouldn't lock myself into not taking him. In this draft you have Young and Jeudy then a large drop off. 

Edited by nonniey
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12 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Larry Fitzgerald? Calvin Johnson? Julio Jones? I get it though but if you have that kind of talent there and he is far better ranked than the other prospects I wouldn't lock myself into not taking him. In this draft you have Young and Jeudy then a large drop off. 

While there are plenty of other holes on the roster, a stud #1 receiver that keeps defenses from doubling Terry M is an appealing prospect. In the Olden Days, the trio of Monk (#1), Clark (#1) and Sanders (#2) presented opponents with a largely unsolvable problem.

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34 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Larry Fitzgerald? Calvin Johnson? Julio Jones? I get it though but if you have that kind of talent there and he is far better ranked than the other prospects I wouldn't lock myself into not taking him. In this draft you have Young and Jeudy then a large drop off. 

 

Not so sure Jeudy is that far ahead of some of his WR peers, especially when you factor in his thin frame, which leads to injury concerns.  If we don’t get Young or a trade down, I’d be fine picking Thomas or Okudah and getting a WR later. 

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2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Not so sure Jeudy is that far ahead of some of his WR peers, especially when you factor in his thin frame, which leads to injury concerns.  If we don’t get Young or a trade down, I’d be fine picking Thomas or Okudah and getting a WR later. 

That's exactly my thought. This draft is packed with talent at WR. Picking it high is wasteful. If Young isnt the pick, trade back. If we cant trade back, I'd be fine with LT or CB.

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15 hours ago, nonniey said:

Larry Fitzgerald? Calvin Johnson? Julio Jones? I get it though but if you have that kind of talent there and he is far better ranked than the other prospects I wouldn't lock myself into not taking him. In this draft you have Young and Jeudy then a large drop off. 

 

You think Jerry Jeudy is Fitz? Johnson or Jones? Three of the best four or five WR's of the past 25 years or so? That strikes me as absurd. It's not that I think he sucks. I don't. I think he should develop into a top 10-20 WR if everything goes right for his generation of prospects. But when you can get a Chris Godwin, or a DJ Moore outside of the top 80 and top 20 of their respective drafts, and you can, why on earth are you using top 5 draft capital on a WR? I ignored Mike Williams (who I liked well enough), and John Ross, and Corey Davis and went hard after cheaper guys like Godwin and DJ Moore in my drafts. Sometimes the analytics doesn't help (McClaurin and the target problem), but generally it does quite a bit, and you can consistently get great value at WR outside of the top 20 in nearly every draft, just take your guy before round 5, because the hit rate after that drops dramatically (after round 4). 

 

Your probably gonna get a very nice starting WR in Jeudy. But this draft like last years is quite deep at WR. Why pull the trigger so early?

 

Take a look at some of the WR's my go to people unearthed the past three drafts pre-combine and after-combine (just going by my fav guy Matt Kelley's evals):

 

2017:

Godwin (84th-My personal favorite)

Juju (62nd)

Golladay (96th)

Samuel (40th)

 

2018:

DJ Moore (24th: My person favorite)

Sutton (40th)

C. Kirk (47th)

A. Miller (51st)

DJ Chark (61st: I missed on him badly, but traded for him this past offseason/September before the breakout)

Gallup (81st)

 

2019:

M. Brown (25th-I was not a fan)

N. Harry (32nd)

D. Samuel (36th)

AJ Brown (51st-My personal favorite)

MeCole Hardman (56th)

Andy Isabella (62nd-another personal fav)

DK Metcalf (65th-very skeptical of his route tree and injury history but he had top 20 talent if he could learn the position and stay healthy)

Diontae Johnson (66th)

Terry McLaurin (76th-Steal and a pick I absolutely hated)

Darius Clayton (171st)

 

 

When you peruse that list, why would you ever take a WR top 5? It's virtually impossible to find elite QB's, DT's and edge rushers outside the top of the draft. Pretty hard to find corners though you can sometimes. Finding elite OT's that late is also nearly impossible though the hit rate for startable if not elite offensive lineman is surprisingly high throughout day 2 and early day 3. 

 

To my mind, a deep WR draft, again, we should use our early draft capital for the things that cost a fortune typically in terms of FA money or draft capital cost to get that nice discount at an expensive position: DL/EDGE/OL/QB/Shut Down corner. Go after a WR w/the pick you get for Trent Williams or w/the early 3rd rounder. 

 

Potential WR prospects include the aforementioned Jeudy AND:

Lamb

Ruggs

Reagor

Higgins

Shenault (whose stock has tanked)

Wallace

Edwards

Tyler Johnson

T. Terry

D. Smith

Pittman

Collin Johnson

 

There's just a ton of guys this year and next. I don't see the point in forcing the pick w/such depth at the position and w/such an excellent track record in recent years in that 20ish-90ish area in the draft. You get a talented player on a cheaper deal, carrying less risk.

 

Recent early 1st round WR's have had a checkered past:

 

'17: 

Corey Davis: Breaking My heart.

 

Mike Williams: Weirdest player ever. Super inefficient.

 

John Ross: Injury issues from college plague him in the pros now as well.

 

'16 Apocalypse: 

Coleman: Bust

Fuller: Hit when he's healthy, he's never healthy.

Treadwell: Bust

Doctson: Bust

 

'15:

Amari Cooper-Hit

K. White: Ultrabust 

Dev Parker: Disaster

B. Perriman: Megabust

Agholor: Bust

Dorsett: Bust

Devin Smith: Bust

DGB: Bust

Devin Funchess: Bust

 

Happily the '18 and '19 WR classes were much better at the top than the '15, '16 and '17 classes, but still, the recent track record is damn ugly w/teams using big time draft equity on WR's early. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 hours ago, Kelvin Bryant said:

While there are plenty of other holes on the roster, a stud #1 receiver that keeps defenses from doubling Terry M is an appealing prospect. In the Olden Days, the trio of Monk (#1), Clark (#1) and Sanders (#2) presented opponents with a largely unsolvable problem.

Worth noting the draft capital spent on 2 of those three was virtually nothing and Monk while a first rounder was taken in the mid-1st if memory serves further bolstering my claim that WR's can be had on day 2 at much less cost in terms of draft capital, and little to no difference in the bust rate risk. 

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15 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Is this accurate even though we won we moved up a spot to #3?

 

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

 

It looks like every team we beat so far is still behind us in the draft

I haven't updated it since last Tuesday. The Dolphins fell behind us based on Thursday's games, but I'm going to update now, then once more Tuesday after all the games have been played and the SoS are finalized for the week.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Strength of Schedule is what matters in draft position. 

I see, more so then head to head? I thought that mattered, too...

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Strength of Schedule is what matters in draft position. 

 

Back when I used to do the draft position thread (and earned my awesome title) this was what made me pull my hair out.  No matter how often I explained the steps that determined draft order (i even had it in the OP), multiple people kept asking this stuff over and over.

Edited by Forehead
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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. H2H is second to SOS

 

Actually, this only applies if the teams are in different divisions, I'm losing hair again :)

 

Head to head is tiebreaker number 4.  #1 is SOS, worst to best.  #2 is division record, #3 is conference record.  It is why if you're gunning for draft position but your team absolutely has to win a game, beating the AFC hurts you the least.

Edited by Forehead
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@Forehead, my God man, how the hell did you do this so many years? I almost feel like I need to edit the Title and put at the very beginning that SoS is the most important thing after record.

 

Anyway, updated after the 1 PM games. I'll update once more after the 4 PM games are done.

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On 11/28/2019 at 1:28 AM, The Consigliere said:

To my mind, a deep WR draft, again, we should use our early draft capital for the things that cost a fortune typically in terms of FA money or draft capital cost to get that nice discount at an expensive position: DL/EDGE/OL/QB/Shut Down corner. Go after a WR w/the pick you get for Trent Williams or w/the early 3rd rounder. 

There's just a ton of guys this year and next. I don't see the point in forcing the pick w/such depth at the position and w/such an excellent track record in recent years in that 20ish-90ish area in the draft. You get a talented player on a cheaper deal, carrying less risk.

 

I hope the Skins get a new GM that thinks like you so that they maximize the value for the team.  Skins are getting a lot of film on their young WRs.  Hopefully a new GM can get a good read on what each of them can do and which ones are in the "just a guy" category.  Most rookie WRs are not expected to produce much in year 1 so the existing WR core is likely to have to carry the Skins another year if they don't pick up an immediate star.  A good TE would help everyone out but the Skins may have to fill that need in free agency and their free agent track record is atrocious.  

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3 minutes ago, GhostofSparta said:

@Forehead, my God man, how the hell did you do this so many years? I almost feel like I need to edit the Title and put at the very beginning that SoS is the most important thing after record.

 

Anyway, updated after the 1 PM games. I'll update once more after the 4 PM games are done.

 

Even I got it partially wrong when I just replied to CLskins fan above, it branches in different ways depending on the teams being compared.  But SOS is always tiebreaker #1 after record, worst SOS gets the higher pick.  The theory being that you had an equal record against a worse group of teams, so you must be worse than the team you're competing with for the pick.

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On 11/28/2019 at 1:28 AM, The Consigliere said:

 

You think Jerry Jeudy is Fitz? Johnson or Jones? Three of the best four or five WR's of the past 25 years or so? That strikes me as absurd. It's not that I think he sucks. I don't. I think he should develop into a top 10-20 WR if everything goes right for his generation of prospects. But when you can get a Chris Godwin, or a DJ Moore outside of the top 80 and top 20 of their respective drafts, and you can, why on earth are you using top 5 draft capital on a WR? I ignored Mike Williams (who I liked well enough), and John Ross, and Corey Davis and went hard after cheaper guys like Godwin and DJ Moore in my drafts. Sometimes the analytics doesn't help (McClaurin and the target problem), but generally it does quite a bit, and you can consistently get great value at WR outside of the top 20 in nearly every draft, just take your guy before round 5, because the hit rate after that drops dramatically (after round 4). 

 

Your probably gonna get a very nice starting WR in Jeudy. But this draft like last years is quite deep at WR. Why pull the trigger so early?

 

Jeudy has been locked in as the number 1 wr for two years, and has an elite ability very few others have. DJ Moore and Chris Godwin are very good, but are not game changers. Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green... Those are elite players that change the game. The DJ Moore's of the league can be found in the 3rd round ( like McLaurin), but they rarely take over a game like the elite guys do.

 

Fantasy numbers mean nothing with regards to real success

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Is it even safe to assume cincy will take a qb?

 

skins need to lose out and cincy needs two more wins. 
 

Chase Young is the player that could change this team for years to come. 
 

who am i kidding the skins will find a way to **** it up. 

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14 minutes ago, illone said:

Is it even safe to assume cincy will take a qb?

 

skins need to lose out and cincy needs two more wins. 
 

Chase Young is the player that could change this team for years to come. 
 

who am i kidding the skins will find a way to **** it up. 


even if they don’t, our goal should be to get into the top 2. That way we either get our choice of the best non-QB player if Cincy goes QB #1 or we get the best QB in the draft (whoever that may be) and can trade down to a QB desperate team 

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16 hours ago, illone said:

Is it even safe to assume cincy will take a qb?

 

skins need to lose out and cincy needs two more wins. 
 

Chase Young is the player that could change this team for years to come. 
 

who am i kidding the skins will find a way to **** it up. 

Will??? I think we're past that. Giants have to win 2 more and we must lose out for them to pick behind us - and they will take Young.

Edited by nonniey

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