FAREWELL to the NFL Dwayne Haskins QB Ohio State

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

One thing about the article above is that it points out the sacks that Haskins is taking and compares them to Keenum who took 12 sacks in 8 games, whereas Haskins has taken 22 in just 6 games. Which defenses are better, particularly rushing the pass? I haven't done that analysis. And I've also read somewhere (need to look it up) that Haskins has 0 sacks in the last 2 minutes. Interesting and I wonder if he can improve on this. 

 

 

Haskins seems to move around in pocket to wait for things to open up more than Keenum did at least to my naked eye.  It could be part of the reason why he was sacked more.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I looked up these stats in nextgenstats https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2019/#average-time-to-throw and see that Haskins is right behind Kirk Cousins in terms of time to throw. Cousins is only sacked at a 5.8% rate, whereas Haskins is sacked at a 14.2% rate. 

 

Interesting. 

 

 

Here's hoping that when Haskins is 31-32 yrs old he's at least where Cousins is in terms of sacks....

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I looked up these stats in nextgenstats https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2019/#average-time-to-throw and see that Haskins is right behind Kirk Cousins in terms of time to throw. Cousins is only sacked at a 5.8% rate, whereas Haskins is sacked at a 14.2% rate. 

 

Interesting. 

 

Minshew has a scak % of 6.4, 
Driskel has a 9.5% 
Brissett hat a 5.5

So there seems to be little correlation between this stat and number of times a QB gets sacked. I think there is something there though because some of his best throws came from escaping pressure. 

 

 

Here's PFF as for time to throw

 

 

 

 

PFF ratings.  One thing you can see Haskins is really good at it avoiding fumbles.  He has the 2nd highest score on that front.   One of my criticisms of Daniel Jones in college was fumbles and he's got an abysmal score on that front.  Kirk and RG3 were mega fumble prone. 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

@Skinsinparadise, that's interesting. Their numbers are similar for Haskins but really different for Cousins. The 4 similar to Haskins at nextgenstats were Minshew, Driskel, Brissett and Cousins. 

 

I also wonder about how this is trending and how it is on deep balls vs short ones, and on third down. 

[Skinsinparadise]

as for PFF some swear the most by their adjusted completion numbers.  They try at least to judge catchable balls versus pure completion.   Haskins numbers aren't hot but he is on the upswing from PFF last week.   Keenum's numbers weren't that bad so I guess the receiving corp didn't help him much.   It's pretty wild to see Brady that low.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

@Thinking Skins  as for your point from PFF about Haskins under pressure.  That was interesting for me to look at it.  That was one of my beefs with Haskins at Ohio State but haven't really digested it yet in the NFL.  PFF definitely spells this now as a weakness.   He doesn't just take sacks but his completion rate is low compared to most in those scenarios including versus some of his fellow rookies. 

 

 

[wit33]

@Skinsinparadise

 

Random thought...

 

Watching Brady as I have on a number of prime time games this year reminds me of Alex Smith last year. Managing the game at an elite level and all the great intangibles, but the offense isn’t clicking at all. Haven’t liked the Pats as SB contenders at all this year, even during there crazy defensive run versus terrible teams. 

[Skinsinparadise]

39 minutes ago, wit33 said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

Random thought...

 

Watching Brady as I have on a number of prime time games this year reminds me of Alex Smith last year. Managing the game at an elite level and all the great intangibles, but the offense isn’t clicking at all. Haven’t liked the Pats as SB contenders at all this year, even during there crazy defensive run versus terrible teams. 

 

I have watched him some too.  He doesn't seem to be himself.  Age might be catching up finally.  Just checked QBR which is another metric some like to use, he's pedestrian on that front.    In 2018 he was ranked 6.  The top 5 shows the power of QBs with mobility, a point that I agree with you on.   We both liked Murray and he's gotten off to a nice start. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

2019 Regular Season NFL Leaders

RK	PLAYER	PTS ADDED	PASS	RUN	PENALTY	TOTAL EPA	QB PLAYS	RAW QBR	TOTAL QBR
1	Lamar Jackson, BAL	49.9	42.6	32.3	1.2	82.9	494	80.7	81.6
2	Patrick Mahomes, KC	40.6	54.2	11.4	3.4	73.2	422	79.6	76.6
3	Dak Prescott, DAL	39.8	59.0	8.8	2.8	77.6	521	74.7	72.9
4	Russell Wilson, SEA	32.8	43.9	11.0	1.1	72.0	497	71.8	72.1
5	Deshaun Watson, HOU	36.0	48.5	15.1	1.1	80.4	516	72.8	71.9
6	Matthew Stafford, DET	24.9	44.5	1.6	1.9	56.1	353	73.1	68.5
7	Carson Wentz, PHI	21.8	41.5	5.3	6.4	65.0	541	63.9	64.3
8	Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA	11.9	23.5	4.8	2.1	39.8	413	60.0	64.1
9	Drew Brees, NO	13.6	29.8	0.5	0.0	34.8	261	67.6	61.0
10	Kirk Cousins, MIN	14.7	39.3	-2.1	4.6	50.4	435	61.7	60.5
RK	PLAYER	PTS ADDED	PASS	RUN	PENALTY	TOTAL EPA	QB PLAYS	RAW QBR	TOTAL QBR
11	Kyler Murray, ARI	17.2	28.1	16.4	2.4	61.9	556	60.8	59.6
12	Jimmy Garoppolo, SF	13.6	37.9	-1.6	5.0	51.7	447	60.6	58.4
13	Derek Carr, OAK	11.2	39.3	-2.1	0.6	44.6	428	59.2	56.3
14	Aaron Rodgers, GB	11.4	33.1	6.9	2.0	54.0	515	57.8	55.9
15	Matt Ryan, ATL	10.4	25.7	5.3	4.2	50.2	544	56.7	54.5
16	Ryan Tannehill, TEN	3.0	1.6	7.3	2.4	22.2	240	54.5	52.9
17	Tom Brady, NE	3.3	31.5	2.7	2.7	45.6	543	52.1	52.5
18	Jameis Winston, TB	4.0	27.4	6.7	2.5	52.3	592	52.4	52.0
19	Baker Mayfield, CLE	-5.6	17.0	4.6	2.8	38.2	505	46.1	51.8
20	Daniel Jones, NYG	4.3	11.8	12.7	3.2	43.0	473	53.2	51.4

[PartyPosse]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I have watched him some too.  He doesn't seem to be himself.  Age might be catching up finally.  Just checked QBR which is another metric some like to use, he's pedestrian on that front.    In 2018 he was ranked 6.  The top 5 shows the power of QBs with mobility, a point that I agree with you on.   We both liked Murray and he's gotten off to a nice start. 

This reminds me of a few years back when all of his receivers were injured and he was throwing to basically Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin. 

 

This year reminds me of that except he doesn't have Gronk. Gordon didn't work out, nor did Antonio Brown. Jakobi Meyers and Dorsett ain't gonna make it easy for a QB, nor is throwing it to a 62 year old Ben Watson.

[Thinking Skins]

 

[skinny21]

^ It’s strange that Sprinkle can pluck passes off the turf, but struggles with ones put in his hands.  He should take a page from McLaurin’s book - 200 passes a day from the jugg machine this offseason.  
 

And what the heck is #25 doing to our running back?  How does that get missed?

[HigSkin]

It's pretty scary when Gruden said at the beginning of the year, the offense runs thru the TE's (ref JReed) and we only have Sprinkle left.  Really puts Haskin's and his options at odds so it seriously needs to be addressed in the off-season.

 

So true...

 

 

[Warhead36]

I think Gruden wanted to trade up for Daniel Jones.

[Skin'emAlive]

Nothing is wrong with Brady. The first half of his career the Pats offense centered around wr’s ( Welker, Moss, Branch, Brown). The second half has predicated on elite two-way TEs in Hernandez, Gronkowski, and to a lesser extent James Devlin. They no longer have any of those. Last year they tried to build around the run game, but without TE’s, it doesn’t work.
 

This year they Started the season with Brown, Gordon, Thomas, and Edelman, and now are down to one option. They need an overhaul at the skill positions. Brady is fine. 

[Bunny Kelly]

Did Jay actually want any QB? I may have preferred Jones over Haskins but I don't think he wanted a rookie at all, he wanted a playmaker to go with Colt

[HTTRDynasty]

35 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think Gruden wanted to trade up for Daniel Jones.

 

Even worse

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

It's pretty scary when Gruden said at the beginning of the year, the offense runs thru the TE's (ref JReed) and we only have Sprinkle left.  Really puts Haskin's and his options at odds so it seriously needs to be addressed in the off-season.

 

So true...

 

 

 

I don't understand what your post and this tweet have in common?

 

I also don't understand the tweet. It seems fairly contradictory... Or is this guy defending Snyder?

[Thinking Skins]

 

[Fergasun]

FWIW, Haskins is last overall in Football Outsiders DVOA.  The divergence between pure statistical DVOA and PFF lead me to think that PFF is  being more rosy in their assessment of his performance.  

 

Looking at other QBs with just as bad ratings-- Goff is the only comparison.  He sucked this much as a rookie.  Luck was also bad as a rookie, but not this bad. 

 

The other names are pretty bad... Cody Kesller, Mark Sanchez, Deshone Kizer, TJ Yates, Blaine Gabbert... 

 

 

[Bunny Kelly]

26 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I don't understand what your post and this tweet have in common?

 

I also don't understand the tweet. It seems fairly contradictory... Or is this guy defending Snyder?

 

The tweet is defending Dan as a by-product of having a go at Jay

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I think Gruden wanted to trade up for Daniel Jones.

 

I followed all the gossip trade stuff pretty closely.  Not once did I hear them wanting to trade up for Jones.   Jones came up in the context of them (Redskins scouts too not just Jay) liking him better than Haskins.  The gossip though pointed strongly to Jay not wanting a QB period in the first round, Jones included.  There was some talk that they loved Kyler Murray and some talk about moving up for him but nothing that serious.  Hoffman was the leader of the band as for the draft talk, seemed plugged in with some of the scouts there.

[wit33]

21 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Great post. 
 

I believe pushing the ball down the field for a pocket QB in today’s game is a must, due to other more mobile QBs having the advantage of using their legs. Now, we’ve seen Haskins manipulate the pocket and use his legs effectively as well and I rank this skill set as high as I do accuracy for a QB, but he will never be a WATSON, Wilson, Jackson (league of his own) type. 
 

Point being, the pocket QB must make down field throws consistently to create big plays and theoretically having the advantage over the more athletic QB. No longer can the pocket QB be efficient to win consistently and at a high level, they must threaten teams down the field. 

[Thinking Skins]

25 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I believe pushing the ball down the field for a pocket QB in today’s game is a must, due to other more mobile QBs having the advantage of using their legs. Now, we’ve seen Haskins manipulate the pocket and use his legs effectively as well and I rank this skill set as high as I do accuracy for a QB, but he will never be a WATSON, Wilson, Jackson (league of his own) type. 

 

This ties into something I've been thinking about lately. Its more about Harmon than Haskins, but I imagined Harmon being more of a Garcon type who could take a short pass  or a pass across the middle and get some yac and really help out Haskins on some shorter routes. I'm still compiling my stats on the play by play, but it seems like most of Haskins shots to the WRs is on deep stuff (not really saying deep balls, jut > 15 yards) with the exception of the Sims stuff before this past week. 

 

I agree that he needs to push the ball downfield, but I'd say the weakness in his game (and he acknowledged this yesterday) is that he's overagressive. He passes up too much short safe stuff for a deep ball. The most obvious one was passing an open Sims in the red zone for an open Harmon. Harmon was a good end zone option and he should have come down with it, but Sims was wide open. 

[Thinking Skins]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

^ It’s strange that Sprinkle can pluck passes off the turf, but struggles with ones put in his hands.  He should take a page from McLaurin’s book - 200 passes a day from the jugg machine this offseason.  
 

And what the heck is #25 doing to our running back?  How does that get missed?

 

Sprinkle is really an enigma. He ran a 4.69 or 4.70 40 yard dash. That's not exceptional but its nothing to laugh at. Plus he is getting open and separation on his routes. Its like he has talent to be an all around TE. We're seeing why he was drafted. Even the play you mention he was almost amazing. But the problem is in his hands. I wonder if his problem is that he was always told to worry about blocking and so he only focused on that in the offseason. I'd like him to get on the jugs as soon as possible. If you look at his stats, they're still trending up right now and I'm not ready to give up on him. He's just got to continue to get better. 

[Skinsinparadise]

53 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

This ties into something I've been thinking about lately. Its more about Harmon than Haskins, but I imagined Harmon being more of a Garcon type who could take a short pass  or a pass across the middle and get some yac and really help out Haskins on some shorter routes. I'm still compiling my stats on the play by play, but it seems like most of Haskins shots to the WRs is on deep stuff (not really saying deep balls, jut > 15 yards) with the exception of the Sims stuff before this past week. 

 

I agree that he needs to push the ball downfield, but I'd say the weakness in his game (and he acknowledged this yesterday) is that he's overagressive. He passes up too much short safe stuff for a deep ball. The most obvious one was passing an open Sims in the red zone for an open Harmon. Harmon was a good end zone option and he should have come down with it, but Sims was wide open. 

 

My 2 cents on those points.  In Ohio State from what I observed he was deadly accurate with mesh routes, and general throws in the between the numbers, 5-15 yard range give or take.  I gather you are a bigger Sprinkle guy than me.  But I don't think much of him.  Quinn hasn't had much of a season either.  My point is I don't think he has the ideal weapons that fit his strength.  If Sims develops as a slot guy, I think it will help. And a real TE threat would help, too.  A healthy Jordan Reed IMO would have been a godsend for Haskins.  Ditto a slot guy like Crowder.  I liked him better throwing inside than outside in Ohio State.

 

I don't think Haskins as I mentioned is good throwing short out routes and IMO isn't that hot with out routes period.  But he reminds me of Kirk in that he throws well in between the numbers save for his throws can sail on the intermediate stuff.   His deep ball at Ohio State was somewhat hit and miss even though he has a rocket arm.

 

I rarely disagree with Cooley about players but I do disagree on Harmon.  Cooley doesn't see him as a legitimate #2 for several reasons but mainly his lack of speed.  Harmon isn't a burner, he runs a 4.6 but if you watch him at NC State, he was a serious deep threat.  The dude was all over the field.  He can do the YAC Garcon drill.  But Harmon could also make big plays.    Harmon's 40 was similar to Michael Thomas.  Thomas is a legitimate deep threat.  My point is Harmon can be likewise explosive.  Some hang on his 40 time.  I did, too until I sat down and watched 5 of his games and was wowed about how the dude was a consistent big play threat.  He might not be a burner but he can separate, has great hands, and can track the deep ball well.

 

Not saying to turn Harmon into D. Jax.  But saying that dude is a well rounded receiver.   Haskins ironically seems to have better chemistry right now with Harmon than McLaurin.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/pff-michael-thomas-nfl-best-170015543.html

Second round selection Michael Thomas has quietly been one of the NFL’s premier deep threats in the NFL this season and has helped form one of the NFL’s biggest scoring juggernauts of 2016.