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Burgold

Where do you think Jay Gruden and Greg Manusky rank?

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On 9/5/2019 at 1:08 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

Jay has his weaknesses as a play caller but play design including getting guys open IMO is his strength. 

 

I think that this sums up Jay perfectly in just one sentence. I realise that O'Connell is essentially unproven so far, but I would like to see him take over play calling, leaving Gruden to concentrate on his strengths.

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8 hours ago, London Kev said:

 

I think that this sums up Jay perfectly in just one sentence. I realise that O'Connell is essentially unproven so far, but I would like to see him take over play calling, leaving Gruden to concentrate on his strengths.

 

I am not a fan of any HC calling plays anymore so I'd like to see O'Connell do it.

 

Not of this part is directed at you.   Having said that, I think some of Jay's critics (not you) can be a bit over the top.  Though I've made the point about sequencing.  My main beef is really the first down runs.  If you dissect Jay's play calling which I've done on other threads -- he's actually good on certain situations and downs.  But the first down beef is borne out by the numbers.  If I recall he runs the 4th most among NFL teams on first down and they are the least successful or maybe 2nd worst if I recall at yards per play as to running on first down.

 

But digesting the rest of it, there is nothing that hit me that glaring.  There were nuances on some sets and downs but nothing that I recall where they were terribly off the averages of the NFL as for tendencies except for how the TE is used in personnel sets. 

 

I do think the one dimensional TE's kills him.  And in Jay's defense the same principle applies to any team.  The TE is the safety of the offense.  That is, it's the ultimate chess piece to throw teams off.  And the worst thing to have on that front are TE's who are just pass catchers for the most part and ones that are primarily blockers.  It's one of the biggest telegraph things in personnel as to tipping off run versus pass.  Belichick has talked about it.  So has Jay this off season.

 

I don't know how many people watch the coaches show every week?  But watching it you can see that Jay is no buffoon about running an offense.  Cooley sometimes plays chess questions with him on the fly asking this versus that.  And you can see how Jay's mind works as for how he gets people open.  Zimmer was miked up once talking about how Jay's offense is a pain in the butt to stop.

 

Jay is a smart coach and offensive mind IMO.    I've outlined in different posts what I think are his strengths and weaknesses  To me though he has some serious strengths on that soup.  And at a minimum, he's no clown when it comes to understanding offenses.  

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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38 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But digesting the rest of it, there is nothing that hit me that glaring.  There were nuances on some sets and downs but nothing that I recall where they were terribly off the averages of the NFL as for tendencies except for how the TE is used in personnel sets. 

 

I do think the one dimensional TE's kills him.  And in Jay's defense the same principle applies to any team.  The TE is the safety of the offense.  That is, it's the ultimate chess piece to throw teams off.  And the worst thing to have on that front are TE's who are just pass catchers for the most part and ones that are primarily blockers.  It's one of the biggest telegraph things in personnel as to tipping off run versus pass.  Belichick has talked about it.  So has Jay this off season. 

 

Yeah, I was going to mention the personel / play calling tendencies (and half time adjustments), but didn't want to appear as if I was down on Jay.

 

One of the reasons I was calling for us to draft Hockenson was because of that very thing. I think he would have provided some versatility at TE that we're obviously currently lacking, This is not directly Gruden's fault, but it is indirectly (if he really does have a say in bringing in new players).

 

I like Jay and hope he can turn us around, but another 7-9 season will probably give me cause to reconsider. I think that If he continues to call plays then he won't ever achieve double-figure wins. If he concentrates on coaching and play design, then I think he can be more successful. As you say, will see.

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2 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Gruden will be a poor playcaller until he figures this out:

 

 

 

I've read Sharp's book year after year.  On Jay his thing isn't that he's a hot mess as a play caller (not saying you are saying otherwise).  It's almost squarely on the running on first down.   The biggest culprit of the same thing is Bill O'Brien.  

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've read Sharp's book year after year.  On Jay his thing isn't that he's a hot mess as a play caller (not saying you are saying otherwise).  It's almost squarely on the running on first down.   The biggest culprit of the same thing is Bill O'Brien.  

 

Yep. It's almost more infuriating than if he just didn't have a mind for play design and playcalling at all--because he's SO CLOSE to getting it. But it's obvious he just isn't capable of having this particular breakthrough for whatever reason. 

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7 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

Yep. It's almost more infuriating than if he just didn't have a mind for play design and playcalling at all--because he's SO CLOSE to getting it. But it's obvious he just isn't capable of having this particular breakthrough for whatever reason. 

 

As for him not being capable of it.  Not sure that's true.  I don't know one way or another but I could have sworn I saw it mentioned somewhere about them shaking up their first down offense this season.  I guess we will see.   Tomorrow is a great test of it.  No Jordan Reed.  Facing a killer defense.  I'd presume there will be a heavy desire to run.   And if it were me I would run but not so much on first down. 

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As for him not being capable of it.  Not sure that's true.  I don't know one way or another but I could have sworn I saw it mentioned somewhere about them shaking up their first down offense this season.  I guess we will see.   Tomorrow is a great test of it.  No Jordan Reed.  Facing a killer defense.  I'd presume there will be a heavy desire to run.   And if it were me I would run but not so much on first down. 

The best weapon is to do the opposite of expectations, specifically at the onset.  The issues from last year were the predictable play calling and personnel packages giving the tell of the play expectations.  They'd be just as effective setting up play action and screens on 1st down vs running into a stacked box.

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Im more worried about Manusky and his 10 yard cushions that he gives offenses.

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23 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

The best weapon is to do the opposite of expectations, specifically at the onset.  The issues from last year were the predictable play calling and personnel packages giving the tell of the play expectations.  They'd be just as effective setting up play action and screens on 1st down vs running into a stacked box.

 

Sure, I get that but if you go through it all using Sharp's numbers, Jay is predictable with his runs on first down but that's not one of a whole bunch of issues.  He's close to the average on most counts as for what he calls on what down.   He mixes it up but for whatever reason not so much on first down.   You see some nuances one way or another.  He passes more than most on 3rd down.  They run slightly more than most with the QB snapping from center, etc. 

 

The TEs on this team in my view are the worst combination you can get as to playing to the opposite of expectations.  Reed and Davis are two of the worst blockers in the league but both can catch.  Sprinkle is more of a blocker than a catch guy but just an average blocker at least using PFF metrics.   Sprinkle looked good catching the ball when I watched practices in camp so maybe he turns the corner this year.  They are desperate IMO to have a TE who isn't completely one dimensional. 

 

The problems seem very central to first down. And it's not just running too much.   But they led the league in offensive penalties.    We keep hearing how Callahan is this guru.  But gosh does the O line get penalties left and right. So when you are in 2nd and 9 because of a bad run or 1 and 15 because of another Moses false start it can take a toll. 

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9 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Gruden will be a poor playcaller until he figures this out:

 

 

 

It looks like second down is the problem. 2nd and 6/5 isn’t that bad. 

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4 hours ago, Leonard Washington said:

It looks like second down is the problem. 2nd and 6/5 isn’t that bad. 

 

Yup 4.8 avg is rather good on 1st down. Minimum you should aim for is 3.4.

 

And 57% of runs on 1st downs, showns a run heavy offense but also some kind of balance.

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6 hours ago, Leonard Washington said:

It looks like second down is the problem. 2nd and 6/5 isn’t that bad. 

 

2nd down.  They might miss Jordan Reed.  He was their best playmaker on 2nd 4-7 yard plays.  88% successful when they threw to him in that setting.

 

On 2nd

55% success on 2nd and short.  Which is less than their success on first on short, 66%. Medium range and long range their success rate was about the same for both downs.  Their best success was short distance on both 3rd and 4th down. (67%, 71%)

 

The thing is Jay didn't have poor success on first down.  He just had relatively poor success on first down when he ran the ball.   That's another reason why I'd like to see them throw the ball more on first down because when they do it, they do it well. 

 

Just 

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After hearing the news AP will be on the inactive list week one, I’m firmly in the fire Gruden camp. What a dam moron

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32 minutes ago, Skinarchy said:

After hearing the news AP will be on the inactive list week one, I’m firmly in the fire Gruden camp. What a dam moron

This is a huge risk.  There are also rumors players are unhappy about the move. 

 

One thing Jay has always done well is not lose the team under difficult circumstances.

 

If the Skins can’t run the ball and AP is in street clothes, “that’s going to be a tough look for my guy. “

 

(quoted is a reference to the Binge_Mode podcast.  If you don’t binge_mode, what the he’ll are you waiting for?)

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Sitting Adrian is the straw for me with Gruden.  I think he will regret it . Hopefully, I am wrong.

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1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

This is a huge risk.  There are also rumors players are unhappy about the move. 

 

 

Meh, the same players for the most part won 7 games last year. I couldn't care less what their feelings are. Go out and ball.

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9 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Meh, the same players for the most part won 7 games last year. I couldn't care less what their feelings are. Go out and ball.

My point was that if they don't feel like they are being put in a position to win, and quit on Jay, that's going to be bad for Jay.

 

I honestly don't care about what their feelings are either.  However, Jay has, so far, done a good job NOT losing the team during some trying circumstances.  If they get blown out, can't run the ball, etc., with one of the top 3 playmakers on the team in street clothes, the wheels could come off for Jay quickly.  

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4 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

My point was that if they don't feel like they are being put in a position to win, and quit on Jay, that's going to be bad for Jay.

 

I honestly don't care about what their feelings are either.  However, Jay has, so far, done a good job NOT losing the team during some trying circumstances.  If they get blown out, can't run the ball, etc., with one of the top 3 playmakers on the team in street clothes, the wheels could come off for Jay quickly.  

He did a good job not losing the offensive players, but the defense quit on him. The defense actually remained pretty healthy minus the loss of Jimoh. It was the offense that got shredded.


Down the stretch, the D looked nothing like it did at the beginning of the year, becoming the softest of cheeses. Either Manusky was totally figured out or the D laid down.

1 hour ago, Skinarchy said:

After hearing the news AP will be on the inactive list week one, I’m firmly in the fire Gruden camp. What a dam moron

Jay inactivated Peterson because he seems scared to death of controversy and being second guessed. That's also why he never gave Haskins any starter snaps.

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7 minutes ago, Burgold said:

He did a good job not losing the offensive players, but the defense quit on him. The defense actually remained pretty healthy minus the loss of Jimoh. It was the offense that got shredded.


Down the stretch, the D looked nothing like it did at the beginning of the year, becoming the softest of cheeses. Either Manusky was totally figured out or the D laid down.

I am going to back up Jay here, I don't think they quit on him.  I think they quite on Manusky to an extent because they got figured out.  I don't think Manusky is even remotely an x's and o's genius, and one of the reasons you saw good offenses boat-race them is because they knew exactly what was coming.  And they had the talent to exploit it.  By the end of the year, everybody basically knew what was coming and almost everybody could exploit it.

 

The one exception was the Giant game.  But that had as much to do with faith in Sanchez as anything.  Signing Sanchez was a bad move, but eh, when you are down to signing Sanchez, you're in a tough spot regardless.  

 

I also think one of the main culprits was Swearinger, and Jay actually stepped up and did what he had to do there.  I was for the cutting of Swearinger, because you just can't have players calling out the coaches.  Showed some hutzpah from Jay, and I was for that. (Even though I think Swearinger might have been right, you can't handle it that way.)

 

Please note, I am backing up Jay.  I have the reputation as the biggest critic on the board. So I think it's notable.  

 

I stand by what I said, I don't think he's lost the team.  I think he's done a very good job keeping the team together.  

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