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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”


PleaseBlitz

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13 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Nice thread title change.

 

Hey, Bill Maher, be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.

 

Are you suggesting that we are not in a recession right now?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/gdp-coronavirus/

 

Quote

The fallout from the deadly coronavirus caused the U.S. economy to contract 4.8 percent from January through March, the deepest decline since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

 

The U.S. economy almost certainly plunged into a recession in the first quarter with consumer and business spending nose-diving as much of the nation went into lockdown to stem the spread of the global pandemic.

 

Spending by Americans tumbled 7.6 percent and business investment shrank 8.6 percent, according to the Commerce Department report, which gives the first comprehensive look at how painful the economic fallout from the pandemic has been. Although Americans flooded grocery stores to buy food and supplies, it was not nearly enough to offset lost spending on dining out, car sales, entertainment and more.

 

The worst is yet to come, many analysts say. The second quarter is likely to show a decline of more than 30 percent — a level not seen since the Great Depression — as much of the economy entered a deep lockdown to try to encourage people to stay home to stop the spread of the virus.

 

“There’s really no question about it. We are in a recession, and it’s going to be a sharp recession,” said economist Alicia Modestino, associate director of the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy.

 

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12 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Are you suggesting that we are not in a recession right now?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/gdp-coronavirus/

 

 

 

No, that he said he wanted a recession to help get rid of Trump.  Congratulations, wish granted.

 

We just don't have the data to show an official recession, I read that Post article this morning, but we are already careening towards Depression territory (if we aren't already there).

 

There's no way I can look at a graphic map like I posted earlier and not see we're just waiting for official data points to make official what we already know:

 

Quote

“Welp, We’re All F@%$ed

 

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@Renegade7

 

I don't necessarily disagree with Bill Maher, tho he is an asshole.  

 

And, of course, someone will say we aren't in an "official" recession.  Which is kind of like saying the game isn't "officially" over when the Patriots take a 50 point lead over the Skins, but there is still time on the clock.  The outcome is obvious and inevitable, but time simply hasn't moved far enough along yet to meet the "official" parameter.  

Edited by PleaseBlitz
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Just now, PleaseBlitz said:

@Renegade7

 

Not sure who you are referring to with your first sentence.  

 

They know who they are, I don't typically like to make statements without quoting who in referring to if in referring to specific individuals (I think it's bad form), but it would take too long and go back months to find them all.

 

Is what it is, I don't remember you hoping for that, if that's what you are asking, so no I'm not talking about you, I would tell you so we could have that conversation and not beat around the bush.

 

Just now, PleaseBlitz said:

And, of course, someone will say we aren't in an "official" recession.  Which is kind of like saying the game isn't "officially" over when the Patriots take a 50 point lead over the Skins, but there is still time on the clock.  The outcome is obvious and inevitable, but time simply hasn't moved far enough along yet to meet the "official" parameter.  

 

Couldn't agree more.  The Executive branch is using the excuse of lack of data for their lack luster decision making process, in many ways because they know it's bad.

 

Economics and statistics are not my strength, but whole-heartedly agree with you we are in "does a bear **** in the woods" territory right now.

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6 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

They know who they are, I don't typically like to make statements without quoting who in referring to if in referring to specific individuals (I think it's bad form), but it would take too long and go back months to find them all.

 

Is what it is, I don't remember you hoping for that, if that's what you are asking, so no I'm not talking about you, I would tell you so we could have that conversation and not beat around the bush.

 

I edited my post b/c I thought you may actually be referring to Bill Maher.  We are overdue for a downturn, although not of this magnitude.  I figure if it is going to happen anyways, might as well hope for it to be timed in a way to get Trump out of office so at least some (huge) benefit comes along with the pain.  Economic prosperity doesn't do me any good when the vast majority of the gains go to the extremely rich and we run trillion dollar deficits with nothing to show for them.  

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3 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I edited my post b/c I thought you may actually be referring to Bill Maher.  We are overdue for a downturn, although not of this magnitude.  I figure if it is going to happen anyways, might as well hope for it to be timed in a way to get Trump out of office so at least some (huge) benefit comes along with the pain.  Economic prosperity doesn't do me any good when the vast majority of the gains go to the extremely rich and we run trillion dollar deficits with nothing to show for them.  

 

I couldn't with a straight face hope for a recession because I ended up homeless not once but twice from the last one.

 

This is why I'm not openly hoping Trump gets coronavirus, I know what it's like to get shrapnel in my chest from a bomb not meant for me.

Edited by Renegade7
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1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I couldn't with a straight face hope for a recession because I ended up homeless not once but twice from the last one.

 

This is why I'm not openly hoping Trump gets coronavirus, I know what it's like to get shrapnel in my chest from a bomb not meant for me.

 

Last one I lost my job of 7 years, waited tables to make ends meet and had to drop $250,000 (and 3 years of my life) on grad school.  Another recession is going to happen, they always do.  It's not about hoping one happens or doesn't happen, it's just a question of timing and magnitude.  Can you imagine if the timing is such that Trump gets reelected and we have 4 more years of Trump and a terrible economy?  

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1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Last one I lost my job of 7 years, waited tables to make ends meet and had to drop $250,000 (and 3 years of my life) on grad school. 

 

I can dig it

 

1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Another recession is going to happen, they always do. It's not about hoping one happens or doesn't happen, it's just a question of timing and magnitude.  Can you imagine if the timing is such that Trump gets reelected and we have 4 more years of Trump and a terrible economy?  

 

We already have a terrible economy, though. I'm convinced Dems could've won this election without a recession before November, that was one way to get rid of Trump, as are more drastic measures. 

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Just now, Renegade7 said:

We already have a terrible economy, though. I'm convinced Dems could've won this election without a recession before November, that was one way to get rid of Trump, as are more drastic measures. 

 

Oh I agree.  I think, but am not sure, that Trump would have lost just because it is more clear now than it was 4 years ago that he is not capable of doing the job and cannot learn, and also that this opponent is not going to win anyways so people should just not vote.  I think without current events, it would be pretty close because the economy was perceived to be very strong and Trump has raised gobs of money and he has a gift for using lies to muddy the waters around his obvious failings.  

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4 minutes ago, VeroViper said:

And meanwhile the stock market continues to climb back up. Anybody think we can expect another big dip around the corner?

All logic says yes but the stock market has been completely irrational throughout this pandemic. I am trading as if we are in the early stages of a worsening recession.

Edited by Sacks 'n' Stuff
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5 minutes ago, VeroViper said:

And meanwhile the stock market continues to climb back up. Anybody think we can expect another big dip around the corner?

Hopefully, Americans will see this and realize that the stock market doesn't mean jack for everyday people.

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41 minutes ago, VeroViper said:

And meanwhile the stock market continues to climb back up. Anybody think we can expect another big dip around the corner?

 

There will definitely be a big dump at some point. But because the market is irrational for long periods of time, you can't tell which corner it's around. And as has been pointed out before, attempting to time the market is pure speculation and most people lose out if they miss just a handful of up days.

 

The S&P is higher today than it was a year ago. I struggle to make any sense of that.

 

All you can do is think about your investment horizon, when you need what portion of the investment, and pick your allocation between stocks and bonds and other fixed income to reflect that.

 

And diversify with the lowest cost funds you can find. 

 

 

Edited by Corcaigh
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10 hours ago, Simmsy said:

Hopefully, Americans will see this and realize that the stock market doesn't mean jack for everyday people.

 

I'm afraid this is short-sighted populist thinking.

 

Most people no longer get pensions. They rely on their 401k and IRA for retirement. That means stocks if you want to retire before 90.

 

I'm a teacher, and I DO have a pension. So do many cops, firemen, and other government employees.

 

Governments don't like to impose taxes, so those promised pensions are funded to a large extent by expected (and to my mind, borderline unrealistic) future returns in the pension funds. Like 8% or more. That means stocks.

 

Even if you're not a government employee, reneging on promised benefits to teachers and police officers is bad PR. We're "heroes". If the stock market goes poorly, in order to meet those pension obligations, YOU will probably have to pay more taxes or have your local government take on more debt. Illinois' pension funds are criminally underfunded, for example. There's going to be a lot of pain there.

 

Yes, the wealthy benefit a lot from the stock market. But so do a lot of "everyday people".

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7 hours ago, techboy said:

 

I'm afraid this is short-sighted populist thinking.

 

Most people no longer get pensions. They rely on their 401k and IRA for retirement. That means stocks if you want to retire before 90.

 

I'm a teacher, and I DO have a pension. So do many cops, firemen, and other government employees.

 

Governments don't like to impose taxes, so those promised pensions are funded to a large extent by expected (and to my mind, borderline unrealistic) future returns in the pension funds. Like 8% or more. That means stocks.

 

Even if you're not a government employee, reneging on promised benefits to teachers and police officers is bad PR. We're "heroes". If the stock market goes poorly, in order to meet those pension obligations, YOU will probably have to pay more taxes or have your local government take on more debt. Illinois' pension funds are criminally underfunded, for example. There's going to be a lot of pain there.

 

Yes, the wealthy benefit a lot from the stock market. But so do a lot of "everyday people".

So, we're screwed.

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3 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Mazda/Hyundai gonna come in April 20 about 35% off compared to April 19.  Last 10 days of March were down 80%.

 

So...could’ve been a whole lot worse, really.

 

It may be that the people who are really getting ****ed in this economy aren't in the market for a new car anyway.

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1 minute ago, Corcaigh said:

 

It may be that the people who are really getting ****ed in this economy aren't in the market for a new car anyway.

 

The lower-earning folks always bear the brunt of any economic contraction.

 

I can say my sub-$20k inventory is moving at 5 times the pace of my $35k+ Units.  Which is much, much higher than normal.

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14 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

The lower-earning folks always bear the brunt of any economic contraction.

 

I can say my sub-$20k inventory is moving at 5 times the pace of my $35k+ Units.  Which is much, much higher than normal.


Do you have any indication that this is predominantly through use of some type of stimulus and ultimately inducing people to become more indebted?

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17 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

The lower-earning folks always bear the brunt of any economic contraction.

 

I can say my sub-$20k inventory is moving at 5 times the pace of my $35k+ Units.  Which is much, much higher than normal.

 

Where/when can I get a deal on a Kia Telluride?

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8 minutes ago, stoshuaj said:


Do you have any indication that this is predominantly through use of some type of stimulus and ultimately inducing people to become more indebted?

 

I think it’s due to people who could afford a $50K car deciding to purchase a $25k car as a strategy to avoid excess debt.

10 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Where/when can I get a deal on a Kia Telluride?

 

The Hyundai Pallisade is the same car.  They were red hot for 6 months.  We had a waiting list.

 

Ive got a dozen of em on the ground now.

 

Would expect a big bump in factory incentives for May.

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