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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”


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Fears grow of an eviction apocalypse

 

Most states paused evictions when the coronavirus hit — but those holds are expiring at about the same time that more generous unemployment benefits are set to dry up.

 

Why it matters: The one-two punch could easily exacerbate the housing crisis for Americans already bearing the worst of COVID-19's effects.

 

One fifth of adults polled in May said they had slight or no confidence they would be able to pay their rent or mortgage due in June, according to a weekly Census survey measuring COVID-19’s impact on Americans.


An Urban Institute analysis of Census data found nearly 25% of black renters deferred or did not pay their rent last month, compared with 14% of white renters.


In Michigan, courts are bracing for "a coming deluge" of as many as 75,000 landlord/tenant filings. (The state's moratorium expired this week.)


The big picture: The pandemic — which forced an economic collapse — is adding new burdens on top of the country's longstanding housing problems.

 

"There was a supply and affordability problem before, and the opportunity for it to get a lot worse presents itself, unless there's really good support coming from the federal, state and local level," Paula Cino of the National Multifamily Housing Council, a trade group for the apartment industry, tells Axios.


What they're saying: The result could be even higher rates of homelessness — leaving more people out on the streets in the midst of a global pandemic.

 

"Prior to the pandemic, our homeless shelter system in the U.S. was stretched thin, and also not set up for social distancing," Alieza Durana, a policy analyst at Princeton University's Eviction Lab, which is tracking states' measures, tells Axios.


"The run-of-the-mill devastation that normally occurs in the wake of an eviction is further amplified by the conditions of this pandemic and economic crisis itself."

 

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Somebody asked why the rate was reported as 13 percent rather than 16 percent.  The three percent difference comes from the large number of people furloughed who classified themselves as absent from work.  According to the methodology used for calculating unemployment, they counted as employed.  Had they been classified correctly, they would have been considered unemployed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics realized the error in classification after the number was released.  Their policy is not to correct past data (hard enough to get the next one out in time), so the 13 percent is the official number until the next number is released. 

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I'm all for individuals capitalizing but this is going to massively increase the wealth gap in this country. I do some volunteering for a group called RESULTS and we are asking Congress next week for $100 billion in rental assistance. In the meantime the Fed is throwing trillions to prop up billion dollar companies. 

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12 hours ago, Hersh said:

The amount of market manipulation taking place this year...I don't want to hear about free markets ever again. 

 

This year?  Washington has been inflating a bubble with deficit spending since a few months after Trump took office.  

 

8 hours ago, Hersh said:

I'm all for individuals capitalizing but this is going to massively increase the wealth gap in this country.

 

It's just a coincidence.  

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1 hour ago, Larry said:

 

This year?  Washington has been inflating a bubble with deficit spending since a few months after Trump took office.  

 

 

It's just a coincidence.  

Yes they have but this is far beyond anything we've seen. We are at $4+ trillion from the Fed in the last 3 months. Saw someone predict they'd go another $3-4 trillion more. 

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47 minutes ago, Springfield said:

So there’s gonna be a massive corporate real estate bust coming up soon when it turns out we don’t need all these office buildings.

 

Turn them into condos...affordable housing problem solved :P 

Edited by Barry.Randolphe
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17 hours ago, Springfield said:

So there’s gonna be a massive corporate real estate bust coming up soon when it turns out we don’t need all these office buildings.

 

There already is in the suburbs. My office park in Rockville was mostly empty pre-COVID. Parking lots are rented to car dealerships to store their additional stock. Our company re-negotiated rent in order to stay. 

 

BUT next door are 650K townhomes. So it won't be a surprise when the wrecking ball comes. 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/02/june-2020-jobs-report/?arc404=true

 

Quote

The economy added 4.8 million jobs last month, based on a survey taken mid-month, sending the unemployment rate down to 11.1 percent — a sign of how many businesses were scrambling to emerge from the depths of the recession.

 

The stock market rose sharply on the news, with the Dow Jones industrial average up around 400 points, or 1.5 percent.

 

But new data also released Thursday by the Labor Department showed that 1.4 million people filed unemployment claims for the first time last week as many businesses reversed themselves and closed again during the surge in coronavirus cases. This trend has not fallen off in recent weeks.

 

This marked the 15th straight week of unemployment claims that exceeded 1 million, a sign that the economic recovery has not taken hold for many Americans.

 

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2 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

The living room is on fire but brownies just came out the oven.

 

I'll never take the stock market seriously again, this is as detached from reality as I've ever seen it.

Really?  Worse than this?

 

image.png.478496d1ff9a976427be1684825c0885.png

 

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