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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

PleaseBlitz

By PleaseBlitz
in The Tailgate

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LadySkinsFan

LadySkinsFan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

 

You’re lucky. You’re already getting your benefits so you won’t have to worry about the upcoming push from the Grand Oligarch’s Party to balance the budget by cutting SS and Medicare. They know current recipients vote, so as usual, they’ll push the cuts out to when I’ll be looking to get mine. ****ers.😡 They’ve long wanted to get rid of it and they’re going to get their chance to start the incremental process because of this, never mind that their tax cuts for the wealthy are the real problem.

 

 

 

I am lucky to have already retired. I'm concerned about my daughter, who's 42, and my friends who are 5-10 years younger than me, it's going to be bad if the GOP (check my signature for my new definition of this) isn't put in it's place this year and the next few elections. 

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China

China

Posted
Posted

The Auto Loan Crisis Isn't Here Yet But It Still Seems To Be Coming

 

Back in March, as it became clearer and clearer that the economy was about to drive itself into a ditch, many people quite reasonably assumed that we would also begin to see a huge wave of auto loan defaults. But two months later, according to new data, that mostly hasn’t happened—yet.

 

That’s according to the credit reporting firm Transunion, which said Wednesday that the percentage of borrowers who were 60 days or more past due stayed relatively stable from March to April. That number was 1.33 percent in April, compared to 1.37 percent in March and 1.11 percent in April 2019.

 

From that data they reach a somewhat bizarre conclusion, summed up by Automotive News:

 

Quote

Serious delinquency rates for auto loans were within a normal range from March to April indicating federal aid, tax returns and lenders’ offerings of payment deferrals largely kept consumers above water — so far — during the COVID-19 crisis, credit bureau TransUnion said Wednesday.

 

I say bizarre because Transunion’s own report includes a different statistic that suggests things aren’t fine after all. That stat measures the percentage of borrowers who are “in hardship,” which Auto News defines as those whose payments have been deferred, accounts have been frozen, or have a “frozen past due payment in their account.” That percentage, for auto loans, was 3.54 percent in April, compared to 0.64 percent in March and 0.51 percent in April 2019.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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sportjunkie07

sportjunkie07

Posted
Posted

We're in for a rough one not just the USA but the world overall. 

 

The Fed is out of options and their only choice now is to print print print (or in today's case just type in extra zeros). I don't think it works.

 

Shutting down the economy is and will be eventually be seen as a terrible idea. The excessive money printing is a terrible idea as well but we don't have any other options. 

 

The rich will flood to assets as the common man tries to survive, save, and pay off debts. 

 

The fault will be blamed on covid (or China) when in reality is was just a catalyst exposing poor financial policy. 

 

My prediction is a period of deflation followed by stagflation and hyperinflation.  

 

I'm hoping there is an ingenious way to come out of all this just fine but I view that as unlikely. 

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ClaytoAli

ClaytoAli

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, sportjunkie07 said:

We're in for a rough one not just the USA but the world overall. 

 

The Fed is out of options and their only choice now is to print print print (or in today's case just type in extra zeros). I don't think it works.

 

Shutting down the economy is and will be eventually be seen as a terrible idea. The excessive money printing is a terrible idea as well but we don't have any other options. 

 

The rich will flood to assets as the common man tries to survive, save, and pay off debts. 

 

The fault will be blamed on covid (or China) when in reality is was just a catalyst exposing poor financial policy. 

 

My prediction is a period of deflation followed by stagflation and hyperinflation.  

 

I'm hoping there is an ingenious way to come out of all this just fine but I view that as unlikely. 


Go bankrupt!

 

Complete US debt write down, businesses and individuals. 

 

Reimbursed by tax payers at a scaled tax increase from 2% to 6% based on income level over the next 16 years.
 

Craft some policy to baseline inflation for the first 3-5 yrs with some currency manipulation to adjust for global inflation.

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hail2skins

hail2skins

Posted
Posted

Saw this article on Market Watch today regarding the stock market:

 

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/did-the-coronavirus-keep-the-stock-market-from-taking-an-even-bigger-hit-2020-05-21?mod=home-page

 

What bothers me is: don't the conditions that persisted pre-coronavirus still exist?  I think there's a consensus that the markets are still overvalued.  I'm not sure that the Dow will make it back down to the 18.5K level it hit before the 6K rebound since, but I can see it going back down to around 20K before it gets back to its February highs of 29.5K. 

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RedskinsFan44

RedskinsFan44

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, hail2skins said:

Saw this article on Market Watch today regarding the stock market:

 

https://www.marke****ch.com/story/did-the-coronavirus-keep-the-stock-market-from-taking-an-even-bigger-hit-2020-05-21?mod=home-page

 

What bothers me is: don't the conditions that persisted pre-coronavirus still exist?  I think there's a consensus that the markets are still overvalued.  I'm not sure that the Dow will make it back down to the 18.5K level it hit before the 6K rebound since, but I can see it going back down to around 20K before it gets back to its February highs of 29.5K. 

When people realize that this has changed consumer spending looong term watch out.

 

Add: https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonOverstreet/status/1263453317650251776

 

Edited by RedskinsFan44
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LD0506

LD0506

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, skinsmarydu said:

Took this pic from my TV...for once, Georgia is bucking idiocy. I'm really impressed. 

 

 

Here's the thing, the vast majority of people everywhere are on the same page with this in spite of the nonstop media coverage of a small % that have their screaming attention whoring tantrums in front of the cameras. It is so easy to just point a finger and judge, "Oh those people in _________(fill in the blank), what a buncha dumbasses" but the reality is far different.

 

I hear it here in conversations, frequently friends reference Georgia's reopening or Florida's governor or Michigan protests but it is HERE. It is everywhere. A small vocal insufferable minority of spoiled ass adolescents are vying for attention. I try to draw parallels for what we saw in local news to what the headlines blare, the exact same dynamic is working throughout the country. And they are being led by nose by those that want to keep up the turmoil and will profit by it. 

 

Try and remind yourself that in the reddest of red states there is a large fraction of blue, held in thrall by the powers that be, but that think and feel just like you or I do. 

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HOF44

HOF44

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, China said:

 

So does that mean there will be some good deals available for buying low mileage used rental cars?

Nope but it means a bunch of vendors are gonna get stiffed and their defined. pension plan will be raided and they will emerge from bankruptcy with huge executive bonuses all around.  

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TradeTheBeal!

TradeTheBeal!

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, China said:

 

So does that mean there will be some good deals available for buying low mileage used rental cars?

 

Almost certainly, at some point Hertz will dump some fleet. They’ve already started moving some of there newish luxury stuff on their website.

 

Soon, an extinction-level cataclysm of Kia Souls and Nissan Sentras will rain down upon us.

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China

China

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

Almost certainly, at some point Hertz will dump some fleet. They’ve already started moving some of there newish luxury stuff on their website.

 

Soon, an extinction-level cataclysm of Kia Souls and Nissan Sentras will rain down upon us.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of the cars in the picture that accompanied the article you posted:

 

hertz-610x407.jpeg

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sportjunkie07

sportjunkie07

Posted
Posted

Seems we have to spend our way out of economic crisis nowadays. 
 

Maybe we go the route of massive nationalization of economic sectors. 
 

One major problem with our economy is that we are passing the buck down the line. We did it 2001, we did it in 08’ and we are doing it again now.

 

economic recessions are natural. It allows the most efficient business to develop and the poorly managed ones to fail. We haven’t allowed this and you will see in the upcoming months the result. Everyone is going to want to be bailed out.

 

just like in 08 I feel the same way. Let them all die. It will only get worse if we push it down the line or we’ll end up with a comatose Japanese economy for 30 years.

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ExoDus84

ExoDus84

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Soon, an extinction-level cataclysm of Kia Souls and Nissan Sentras will rain down upon us.

 

I'm not sure the world is ready for the combined 85 horsepower of all those beasts tearing up public roads. 

51 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I just wish the economy would make up it’s mind so I know if I should buy a new truck or not.

 

You can lease a Tacoma for $200 per month if you look around. Though if you don't absolutely need a new vehicle right now, probably best to wait. 

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Corcaigh

Corcaigh

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/22/2020 at 12:40 AM, techboy said:

Dilbert Comic on beating the market

 

Because I'm a software technologist there have been times in booming markets where my doctor or dentist or someone at a barbecue will ask for tech company stock tips and be unconvinced when I say there are no individual bets I would make.

 

This graphic from industry pundit Geoffrey Moore lists companies that all crushed it for many years and subsequently went out of business, were acquired for a fraction of the worth they had been trading at, or missed an enormous opportunity that a smaller and less well-funded competitor seized. Every single one of them was a 'sure bet' at a time in their history. You can tell your age by working up from the bottom of the list and when you no longer recognize names is when you entered the industry, or started following technology companies.

 

next wave.png

Edited by Corcaigh
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TheGreatBuzz

TheGreatBuzz

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

Oh, look at Mr. Baller over here, throwing money around. Sorry to have underestimated you, Your Majesty.

Didn't mean it that way.  Just that I need a dually to move my "home" around and thats what you have to expect to spend.  But for me it is factored in as an expense similar to what others would factor in to a mortgage.  If you didn't know, the wife and I are full-time RV'ers.  The image of trying to tow my trailer with a Tacoma made me laugh.

1 minute ago, Corcaigh said:

You can tell your age by working up from the bottom of the list and when you no longer recognize names is when you entered the industry, or started following technology companies.

Do the different colors have a meaning or just for asthetic value?

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ExoDus84

ExoDus84

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Didn't mean it that way.  Just that I need a dually to move my "home" around and thats what you have to expect to spend.  But for me it is factored in as an expense similar to what others would factor in to a mortgage.  If you didn't know, the wife and I are full-time RV'ers.  The image of trying to tow my trailer with a Tacoma made me laugh.

 

I'm was just messing with you. I really just wanted to use that fantastic gif, and your post seemed like the perfect culprit. 🤣

Edited by ExoDus84
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