LadySkinsFan Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 I expect the beginning of the recession to start right around tax time, with summer spending down. It will continue through summer into fall and electioneering speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, tshile said: wish we could run a parallel world without trade wars to see how much that is impacting the economy. What would things be like without it? Would just be interesting to know. It's the problem with economics. (And lots of other "sciences".) Without a time machine, it's impossible to isolate one variable. What would things be like now, without the GOP's deficit spending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: Adam Smith's murderous ghost will be paying you a visit tonight. #EconJokes is this a joke about people being rational? cause all i need to do is show his murderous ghost twitter and he'll be on his way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) Bumping this thread to see if folks want to put updates specific to what's looking like inevitable now. Oil price war and Dow stopped trading for 15 minutes because it dropped 7% right out the gate. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/09/coronavirus-live-updates/ Edited March 9, 2020 by Renegade7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) The oil price dropping is an issue. As well as supplies chain shocks. hard to see into the future, which is why the market is selling off. I think most likely this will blow over by summer and stocks and the economy will recover due to pent up demand. a less likely scenario is that fear from the disease spreads even more. Like, if for example, a major counties leader contracts the virus, the oil price wars or economic stresses of the economic slowdown result in military conflicts in the Middle East spreading. and then of course something in between. The downside outlook I feel is much much less likely than the positive one (which I think is most likely), but it’s down side is much greater than the most likely scenario’s upside. Edited March 9, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) Ya, I'm still in "recession yes, depression no" coming mode right now... Edited March 9, 2020 by Renegade7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: Ya, I'm still in "recession yes, depression no" mode right now... Woo Hoo. We need the recession to start by June and last at least until November. That will help Biden and the Dems. Edited March 9, 2020 by Rdskns2000 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearrock Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Rdskns2000 said: Woo Hoo. We need the recession to start by June and last at least until November. That will Biden and the Dems. I am a random internet passerby and I disapprove of this message. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said: Woo Hoo. We need the recession to start by June and last at least until November. That will help Biden and the Dems. You trippin, the election will take care of itself, we talking about a possible pandemic/economic collapse knuckle sandwhich here that could set a historical tone for all of us. This is not a drill or a joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: Ya, I'm still in "recession yes, depression no" coming mode right now... Wish I was as confident. We've known for a while that we're overdue for a drop. But this one is coming at the same time as what might be the worst public health crisis of my lifetime. And at a time when our normal tools for dealing with an economic crisis have been emptied for political benefit. Not an optimistic combination. 6 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said: Woo Hoo. We need the recession to start by June and last at least until November. That will help Biden and the Dems. Let's just agree that there's enough threads in Tailgate to discuss politics and the election*, and keep this discussion on economics. * And it's arguable whether cheering for harm to the country because you think it will help your political party gain power is a desirable position, even in those threads. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said: Woo Hoo. We need the recession to start by June and last at least until November. That will help Biden and the Dems. I think this gives Trump an out. The economy is close to the top of the cycle anyway. If we are still hearing about corona June we are in a bad place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Larry said: Wish I was as confident. We've known for a while that we're overdue for a drop. But this one is coming at the same time as what might be the worst public health crisis of my lifetime. And at a time when our normal tools for dealing with an economic crisis have been emptied for political benefit. Not an optimistic combination. This is one of my biggest problems with this current situation, and been complaining about it since the Trump tax cuts. We running trillion dollar deficits and low interest rates before the recession, you supposed to do that during the recession. Running out of bullets before the war even starts, you every right to be concerned even pessimistic, but for some folks they had to see it to believe it. Can we borrow money from China during a global depression? Serious question. Edited March 9, 2020 by Renegade7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renegade7 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Jus came from work cafeteria for ginger ale, first time in a while seen cnn and fox with same headline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, Renegade7 said: Jus came from work cafeteria for ginger ale, first time in a while seen cnn and fox with same headline Recall long ago, Rush Limbaugh doing a comedy bit, where he was speculating on, if it was known that the world was going to end tomorrow, what would the headlines in various newspapers be? I remember a few: NY Post: We're done! WaPo: World ends tomorrow. Poor, minorities hurt worse. WSJ: World predicted to end tomorrow. Markets to close early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry.Randolphe Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 We should have expected this....Trump is running the WH like a business...and he typically leaves businesses bankrupt and in shambles 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Renegade7 said: Jus came from work cafeteria for ginger ale, first time in a while seen cnn and fox with same headline Fake news 😛 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fergasun Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Coronavirus is the black swan event of 2020. We typically go through these cycles every 10 years. 2000s stock bubble, 2008 housing crises. A little later than expected.... Globally these are neither fun nor funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportjunkie07 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) The global economy needed a correction. It's kinda good in a way. It's works out for the dems too; they won't win if the economy is booming in november, that's part of the reason all the leftist websites are pushing the coronavirus as if it is a big deal. Newsflash: it's not. I expect things to correct by late summer. Edited March 9, 2020 by sportjunkie07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chachie Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 22 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said: It's works out for the dems too; they won't win if the economy is booming in november, that's part of the reason all the leftist websites are pushing the coronavirus as if it is a big deal. Newsflash: it's not. I expect things to correct by late summer. It's not a big deal YET. It's in its infancy right now and it is capable of mutation. I'm confident in our nation's medical community to eventually squash it but all this talk by the "rightist" websites laughing at it certainly won't go an inch toward making that happen. Folks on the conservative side of things love to shame people with phrases like "panic" and "politically-motivated." I haven't seen a single citizen in panic. I've seen messages of prevention and caution. I've seen portals that monitor, portals that criticize our governmental responses. I'd much rather follow those lines of thought than sit back and antagonize anyone expressing concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 The signs of a bigger recession in the future are there, but the same could have been said towards the end of Bush's 1st term, he had the Wars in the middle east that was boosting GDP. Trump's strategy seems to pumping artificial short term stimulants in to keep the economy moving along just well enough so he can use the economy as a selling point for re-election. Although, I don't care if you are pro-Trump or not, any suggestion that the economy is "doing the best it ever has" is straight up delusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Guess it depends on how you define the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExoDus84 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: The signs of a bigger recession in the future are there, but the same could have been said towards the end of Bush's 1st term, he had the Wars in the middle east that was boosting GDP. Trump's strategy seems to pumping artificial short term stimulants in to keep the economy moving along just well enough so he can use the economy as a selling point for re-election. Although, I don't care if you are pro-Trump or not, any suggestion that the economy is "doing the best it ever has" is straight up delusion. Good point, but then... 36 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: Guess it depends on how you define the economy. oh! NoCalMike's points were just completely obliterated. Damn! In all seriousness, the equities bubble was going to pop eventually. The huge problem now is the market has been propped up by tax cuts and damn near zero interest rates for a while now. Where do we go from here if there's indeed a recession? We're heading into war with no bullets. We're LEAVING a bull market with a trillion dollar deficit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barry.Randolphe Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I just threw an extra $500 into my Roth.....figured I'd throw some more in if the market continues to tank even more, but couldn't pass up the opportunity today to get some discounted shares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) Quote oh! NoCalMike's points were just completely obliterated. Damn! what lol? people who are complaining about the deficit spending because the economy is doing well and deficit spending only be used in weak economies are saying the economy is not strong. trump didn’t invent deficit spending... if needed, there is always qualitative easing and direct stimulus. (Cash for clunkers) However if supply chains are disrupted, no economic stimulus is going to save the economy... Edited March 9, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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