PleaseBlitz Posted August 22, 2019 Author Share Posted August 22, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, tshile said: I read more than one, but I'm glad your feathers are ruffled. It's deserved. If being a jerk doesn't work at first, just double down. Yep, I'm the one that came in being a jerk. I also love your sliding in that you read more than one. Do you also have many fine leather bound books? Edited August 22, 2019 by PleaseBlitz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 On the other hand... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
First Colony Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 54 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said: as a car dealer guy, I can say that 2019 looks a lot like 2007 to me. Can you expand on this? Are y'all giving easy credit and that's why it looks like 2007? I'm just trying to understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 50 minutes ago, First Colony said: Can you expand on this? Are y'all giving easy credit and that's why it looks like 2007? I'm just trying to understand. Sure. Credit has been pretty loose for a couple years now (high aprs, high LTV %, long terms), but has just recently started to contract...banks are nervy and bloated with “bad paper”. Also, inventories are old, factories are slashing dealer money and staffing/pay plans are trending down. To be fair, I’m mostly at Mazda and Hyundai and both brands are having self-inflicted struggles for reasons outside of the overall health of the US economy. A few brands are doing quite well at the moment. But...the trend is real. Most of us are a little nervous 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said: Also, inventories are old, factories are slashing dealer money and staffing/pay plans are trending down. But...the trend is real. Most of us are a little nervous Housing market is weird too. Y/Y sales may be a tick higher but you’ve gotta remember than a year ago we were dealing with a sudden spike to interest rates that kind of shocked the market. Right now prices are inflated because rates are low again and more importantly inventory is horrible. Just not a lot of people looking to sell right now, I think a lot due to uncertainty around the market and a potential recession. But even then, houses that would have sold in days two years ago are sitting for weeks or even months depending on the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Thinking about a refi before rates go back up too. I just bought in 2016, sooooooo, doubt it helps me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Auto sales/financing have been in a bubble for awhile. The stock market was due for a correction. I'm always looking for the next recession, but the pension crisis seems more ominous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yohan Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said: Also, inventories are old, factories are slashing dealer money and staffing/pay plans are trending down. When you say this, is that the increase in the Rebates i have noticed this past month? I have been looking possibly purchase a new vehicle, and have be looking and testing for about 3 or so weeks, and seen rebates rise over this time...especially Nissan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmsy Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 I'm not going to pretend I'm an economist, I know some, but not more than any other "arm chair economist". However, everyone has been point to signs about the oncoming recession: the stock market, housing market, yield curve, the fact that people are defaulting on their car loans, etc. It was going to come because of Trump or not, maybe he exacerbated the deal, but it was coming sooner or later. I have also heard the NOVA has a somewhat isolated economy, so those of us in the area might be ok or more ok than others. I just started a job doing metal roofing, it is starting to slow down. Has anyone else in the area noticed any slow down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Yohan said: When you say this, is that the increase in the Rebates i have noticed this past month? I have been looking possibly purchase a new vehicle, and have be looking and testing for about 3 or so weeks, and seen rebates rise over this time...especially Nissan. Rebates are more of a model-to-model basis type of deal and it’s not at all unusual for a factory to juice it up for the last 10 days of the month. ”Dealer Money” would generally refer to quarterly sales volume bonuses and advertising assistance related to dealers meeting objectives during the vehicle ordering phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted August 22, 2019 Author Share Posted August 22, 2019 37 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said: Credit has been pretty loose for a couple years now (high aprs, high LTV %, long terms), but has just recently started to contract...banks are nervy and bloated with “bad paper”. Also, inventories are old, factories are slashing dealer money and staffing/pay plans are trending down. High aprs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 (edited) Simply put job growth has slowed under Trump. It isn't opinion. It isn't "someone is fixing the numbers to make Trump look bad" It doesn't mean the economy is great or terrible or whatever each specific cables news network wants to say. The job growth rate is slowing, and it shouldn't be a surprise after 10 straight years of growth. This was likely inevitable regardless of who was elected President after Trump. The current economy is not so much reflective of anything Trump has done and more the final stages of Obama's policies. Trump's policies are largely going to be felt going forward. I read a Forbes article that said Trump's economy is basically the same as Obama's economy, the same flaws are still there and still not being addressed. The question is how will Trump respond to the slow down. Will he just ignore it because after all "greatest economy ever and all?" So far it seems like all he has been discussing is more tax cuts for the wealth that might offer a very short term jolt (with an election year coming up surprise-surprise). Edited August 22, 2019 by NoCalMike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said: High aprs? Whoops! Make that “low aprs”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted August 22, 2019 Author Share Posted August 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: Simply put job growth has slowed under Trump. It isn't opinion. It isn't "someone is fixing the numbers to make Trump look bad" It doesn't mean the economy is great or terrible or whatever each specific cables news network wants to say. The job growth rate is slowing, and it shouldn't be a surprise after 10 straight years of growth. This was likely inevitable regardless of who was elected President after Trump. The current economy is not so much reflective of anything Trump has done and more the final stages of what Obama's policies. Trump's policies are largely going to be felt going forward. The question is how will Trump respond to the slow down. Will he just ignore it because after all "greatest economy ever and all?" So far it seems like all he has been discussing is more tax cuts for the wealth that might offer a very short term jolt (with an election year coming up surprise-surprise). Right, we've had an extremely long cycle of growth, and that is inevitably going to end soon. All of the various actors can speed it up, slow it down, or make it deeper or smoother, but it's coming. I really want to keep politics out of this, but a move that we've seen in the past was during the W administration when everyone got sent a $600 check, remember that? The W Economic Stimulus Act or whatever (and everyone just used it to pay down their credit cards (or maybe that was just me)). I can definitely see Trump, who does not give a **** about budgets or deficits, doing that in an election year. Just shower everyone in deficit spending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, Simmsy said: I'm not going to pretend I'm an economist, I know some, but not more than any other "arm chair economist". However, everyone has been point to signs about the oncoming recession: the stock market, housing market, yield curve, the fact that people are defaulting on their car loans, etc. It was going to come because of Trump or not, maybe he exacerbated the deal, but it was coming sooner or later. I don't know that the housing market fits showing signs of a pending recession.... that's not what I'm reading. And someone posted the main indicators on page 1 and the *only* one showing negative outlook is the inverted yield curve... 14 minutes ago, Simmsy said: I have also heard the NOVA has a somewhat isolated economy, so those of us in the area might be ok or more ok than others. I just started a job doing metal roofing, it is starting to slow down. Has anyone else in the area noticed any slow down? I'm not in construction per se, but have spent the last 1.5 years on a construction project and the construction industry is booming, there's too much work and not enough workers. One big issue has been the rise in cost for materials. Like framing lumber. But the builder I was working with the other day said the only result for them is charging more money, they surely cannot keep up with the demand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCalMike Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: Right, we've had an extremely long cycle of growth, and that is inevitably going to end soon. All of the various actors can speed it up, slow it down, or make it deeper or smoother, but it's coming. I really want to keep politics out of this, but a move that we've seen in the past was during the W administration when everyone got sent a $600 check, remember that? The W Economic Stimulus Act or whatever (and everyone just used it to pay down their credit cards (or maybe that was just me)). I can definitely see Trump, who does not give a **** about budgets or deficits, doing that in an election year. Just shower everyone in deficit spending. I believe that stimulus was actually a tax cut wasn't it? Because the amount you got was based on your household. (More for families with kids). I am preferential to an actual stimulus package similar to what Obama did, put people to actual work, doing jobs. Starve off the recession as much as possible until the slowdown levels off and things start rebounding. That Obama stimulus package really happened too late the last time around as it should have happened sometime in Bush's 2nd term if they were looking to tackle the problem head on once the jobs started bleeding like a stuck pig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, NoCalMike said: I am preferential to an actual stimulus package similar to what Obama did, put people to actual work, doing jobs. Starve off the recession as much as possible until the slowdown levels off and things start rebounding. Same. Government should spend more when private industry isn't. Get some infrastructure stuff done, keep one of the most vulnerable sectors of the economy during a recession working (construction and related services.) Keep things moving. And back off when things get better We didn't back off. We did a huge tax cut that was pitched as "it will pay for itself (if we maintain solid 4%+ growth in GDP" There's also another school of thought that gov't should just spend spend spend and incur debt because it means larger % of the money supply is moving around in private hands. Something like that. I know some smart people who think that's the right school of thought but I'm not the appropriate person to pitch it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted August 22, 2019 Author Share Posted August 22, 2019 1 minute ago, NoCalMike said: I believe that stimulus was actually a tax cut wasn't it? Because the amount you got was based on your household. (More for families with kids). I don't remember, I was very stupid when I was 26. I remember getting an actual check though. 1 minute ago, NoCalMike said: I am preferential to an actual stimulus package similar to what Obama did, put people to actual work, doing jobs. Starve off the recession as much as possible until the slowdown levels off and things start rebounding. That Obama stimulus package really happened too late the last time around as it should have happened sometime in Bush's 2nd term if they were looking to tackle the problem head on once the jobs started bleeding like a stuck pig. Yea, the gigantic plan to rebuild our country's infrastructure that so many people are talking about, which will put people to work, doing jobs, and we'll get something tangible out of it. I haven't seen any actual plan from anyone yet, other than HOW BIG IT WILL BE. Obam's plan was only $275b in federal contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said: I really want to keep politics out of this, but a move that we've seen in the past was during the W administration when everyone got sent a $600 check, remember that? I believe the criticism from economists was it wasn't big enough (Although I think it was more like "... if you're going to do it, send a bigger check, otherwise you're wasting your time " not really a full endorsement of the idea) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportjunkie07 Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Why not just bail out the economy again if we run into a recession? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 1 minute ago, sportjunkie07 said: Why not just bail out the economy again if we run into a recession? Generally speaking that’s what they try to do. Except last time a large portion of the GOP was pushing austerian policies - “tighten the belt” - cut spending cut funding etc. Europe did that and it was not a good result. Eventually that catches up to you. The cost of bailing out is government debt. So I guess it depends on your school of thought on government debt. That’s why I favor bailouts in the form of infrastructure spending. If you’re going to go into debt, especially debt you never make a move to pay back (see last several years), you might as well get something out of it. Like a safer bridge or dam, rail or better roads that ease congestion... automobile manufacturers seem to be downsizing and sending jobs to other countries. Was that the best use of bailout money? Was Wall Street? Are we seeing long term dividends on those investments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 (edited) You’ll enjoy this, @tshile. It’s a good quick read. https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/jan/22/barack-obama/obama-says-automakers-have-paid-back-all-loans-it-/ Edited August 22, 2019 by TryTheBeal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 53 minutes ago, tshile said: Same. Government should spend more when private industry isn't. Get some infrastructure stuff done, keep one of the most vulnerable sectors of the economy during a recession working (construction and related services.) Keep things moving. And back off when things get better We didn't back off. We did a huge tax cut that was pitched as "it will pay for itself (if we maintain solid 4%+ growth in GDP" There's also another school of thought that gov't should just spend spend spend and incur debt because it means larger % of the money supply is moving around in private hands. Something like that. I know some smart people who think that's the right school of thought but I'm not the appropriate person to pitch it... I generally agree with this. Most, If not all, government spending benefits the economy. Spending creates jobs, oversight creates jobs, regulations create jobs. My industry, for example: In Nova we have a fairly robust emissions inspection program, mandated ultimately by the federal government because we are a non attainment zone. What this does for a shop like mine is multi fold. One, we employ an emissions (and safety) inspector. All he does is inspect cars. We get a portion of the inspection cost. Two, most people who don’t pass inspection generally have their cars repaired at our shop which of course benefits our other technicians and office support personnel. Three, VA’s emission inspection program is fairly simple in that if your “check engine” light is on then the car fails (except for roadside testing which is a different subject). What that means is that drivers are more attentive and willing to spend money on those pesky warning lights. This of course benefits the shop and all the people working there as well. Essentially, if suddenly drivers didn’t have to worry about emissions tests in Nova, my shop would take a big hit. Massive. I imagine there is this trickle down effect to most regulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportjunkie07 Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, tshile said: Generally speaking that’s what they try to do. Except last time a large portion of the GOP was pushing austerian policies - “tighten the belt” - cut spending cut funding etc. Europe did that and it was not a good result. Eventually that catches up to you. The cost of bailing out is government debt. So I guess it depends on your school of thought on government debt. That’s why I favor bailouts in the form of infrastructure spending. If you’re going to go into debt, especially debt you never make a move to pay back (see last several years), you might as well get something out of it. Like a safer bridge or dam, rail or better roads that ease congestion... automobile manufacturers seem to be downsizing and sending jobs to other countries. Was that the best use of bailout money? Was Wall Street? Are we seeing long term dividends on those investments? It was sarcastic but I agree. Those bailouts treated the syptoms but not the underlying problem and we should have let those companies die imo. If we are going to be pumping money into the economy it needs to be to better infrastructure and education. That is the only way we beat dirt cheap labor in a globalized world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said: It was sarcastic but I agree. Sorry went over my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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