The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[PleaseBlitz]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

This is huge reason why i believe these numbers aren't telling the full story and cherry picking is lying to ourselves.

I dont think it’s cherry picking. They have a set methodology. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to count someone as unemployed if they don’t WANT to be employed, usually. In our current, somewhat hopeless situation, probably a lot of people have just given up, sadly. 

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I dont think it’s cherry picking. They have a set methodology. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to count someone as unemployed if they don’t WANT to be employed, usually. In our current, somewhat hopeless situation, probably a lot of people have just given up, sadly. 

 

I feel you, cherry pricking feels harsh. Then that should be a different statstic to represent that reality, not that unemploymwnt is going down because the economy is improving (because its not).

 

Is the stock market more in denial then reality? I can never tell anymore, almost went over 30k, then dropped 800 the other day. Basically we'd of been had a second round of stimulus checks if the stock market felt it needed it, its soooooo messed up.

[China]

Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthy

 

The story for much of the past generation has been a familiar one for the U.S. economy, where the benefits of expansion flow mostly to the top and those at the bottom fall further behind.

Some experts think the coronavirus pandemic is only going to make matters worse.

 

Worries of a K-shaped recovery are growing in the alphabet-obsessed economics profession. That would entail continued growth, but split sharply between industries and economic groups. 

 

It’s a scenario where big-box retail and Wall Street banks benefit and mom-and-pop shops and restaurants and other service profession workers lag. Though not readily visible in GDP numbers for the next several quarters that will look gaudy in historical terms, the uneven benefits of the recovery pose longer-term risks for the national economic health.

 

“The K-shaped recovery is just a reiteration of what we called the bifurcation of the economy during the Great Financial Crisis. It really is about the growing inequality since the early 1980s across the country and the economy,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “When we talk K, the upper path of the K is clearly financial markets, the lower path is the real economy, and the two are separated.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

[tshile]

7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Then that should be a different statstic to represent that reality

It is. There’s levels of unemployment stats

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

 

the generally accepted unemployment statistics here requires that they be looking for work. And that’s the one that makes the news. But they measure it at different levels

[Renegade7]

5 hours ago, tshile said:

It is. There’s levels of unemployment stats

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

 

the generally accepted unemployment statistics here requires that they be looking for work. And that’s the one that makes the news. But they measure it at different levels

 

Thanks for posting that, this is the one I dont like from department of labor:

 

• U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.

This rate based on latest labor department release doesn't smell right, especially when put up to 2019 numbers.

 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

 

I'm not in the Nancy Drew mood right now, but something is telling me to look further into this, considering what has happened to retail, resturants, and tourism, that number should be much higher. Who are they polling?

 

Maybe like @PleaseBlitz said about October...

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

14 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I feel you, cherry pricking feels harsh. Then that should be a different statstic to represent that reality, not that unemploymwnt is going down because the economy is improving (because its not).

 

Is the stock market more in denial then reality? I can never tell anymore, almost went over 30k, then dropped 800 the other day. Basically we'd of been had a second round of stimulus checks if the stock market felt it needed it, its soooooo messed up.

The economy certainly is improving. If you compare gdp from end of March beginning of April to now, there would likely be a large increase..... gdp is forecast to grow at its highest rate in many years Q3.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2020/08/06/us-gdp-growth-record-rebound-q3-2020-election/amp/

 

considering how far we fell because of government mandated closures it shouldnt be surprising that the economy improves after those restrictions are eased.
 

I agree about the worries about a K shaped recovery though. Larger companies have access to technology and scale that make it easier for them to deal with a post pandemic world, compared to small mom and pop type places, and I agree with PleaseBlitz that October probably is not a good month for us, especially if it seems like the pandemic is looking like is rolling through round 3 of an uptick in cases, which we all expect...

 

 

As far as the stock market, I think that is mostly due to a lack of other attractive liquid options for investing.  October really could be a terrible month for the stock market, especially if it becomes clearer that Biden is going to win...  

 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[tshile]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

I'm not in the Nancy Drew mood right now, but something is telling me to look further into this, considering what has happened to retail, resturants, and tourism, that number should be much higher. Who are they polling?

 

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

This rate based on latest labor department release doesn't smell right, especially when put up to 2019 numbers.

So now I’m out of my element here but my guess is that when you take a rigorous standard designed to reflect “normal” or “expected” economic conditions (including crisis and downturns) and use it in a pandemic where things are forced to be shut down, and we have things like PPP or other aid that requires employers to technically keep people on their payrolls, and then add in the Trump factor (no level of manipulation or lying is out of the question) you get a result like this. 
 

and yeah, like you said about October, if you take what little we already know about pending job cuts, extrapolate that out to the entire economy, and then add it to the official numbers, it probably starts to look closer to what you’re expecting to see. 
 

the news from United is 16k layoffs expected when ppp runs out, plus they’ve got 20k on “temporary leave” and 7k have left on their own. So those numbers aren’t really in there. And that’s just one company. Now they’re in the hardest hit industry so it’s the worse end the spectrum but... those are real numbers. Those are people that are “employed” only because the government is paying for them to be so, and as soon as they stop united will dump them. 
 

so yeah... the numbers are all screwed up across the board and we’re seeing it in many things (like the covid stats where some numbers aren’t necessarily new people infected but are instead just a “positive test” which could be for someone who’s already had a positive test and is being counted twice, or people who are dying from covid but because we don’t know enough they’re not in the numbers, etc)

 

it’s not that you can’t navigate it and draw meaning from them. But it requires some extra work. And the media is not known for doing extra work; quite the opposite. So we’ll get lots of conflicting narratives and such for a while. 
 

 

23 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

gdp is forecast to grow at its highest rate in many years Q3.

😂

your propensity to cling to terrible arguments is never surprising. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

26 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

 

😂

your propensity to cling to terrible arguments is never surprising. 

You are factually wrong here. The economy is improving. That’s a fact.  Just as the economy shrunk at the fasted last on record in Q2, it is forecast to increase at the fastest pace on record Q3.

Unemployment is decreasing, there is no need to cook the books. The economy is growing.

 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

You are factually wrong here.

What have I said that is factually wrong?

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 minute ago, tshile said:

What have I said that is factually wrong?

that I made a bad argument as to why unemployment is decreasing. GDP growth decreased and Unemployment increased due to an artificial shock. Now that that shock as leased, they are bouncing back.
 

Too soon to say how fully they recover.

Edited September 5, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[CousinsCowgirl84]

@tshilesomeone the troll smiley was banned. Im not sure if that is true or not, but I think bcl said it, and it is poor taste anyway so I try to avoid it going forth, just sayin

Edited September 5, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[skinsmarydu]

17 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

that I made a bad argument as to why unemployment is decreasing. GDP growth decreased and Unemployment increased due to an artificial shock. Now that that shock as leased, they are bouncing back.
 

Too soon to say how fully they recover.

Now a GLOBAL PANDEMIC is an "artificial shock".

Your critical thinking is totally wack. (Or you just speak the language of stupid, which I clearly don't understand.)

[Renegade7]

8 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

@tshilesomeone the troll smiley was banned. Just sayin

 

You trolling yourself with this artifical shock nonsense. Have you been outside lately?

 

You've got to stop with this "everything is fine" shtick you refuse to let go of.  You say you worried about a K shape recovery the talk about how then economy is recovering. Its not, the wealth gap is getting split wide open right now, whos recovery? 

 

 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Renegade7

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Just now, skinsmarydu said:

Now a GLOBAL PANDEMIC is an "artificial shock".

Your critical thinking is totally wack. (Or you just speak the language of stupid, which I clearly don't understand.)

no, the global pandemic will have a real impact on the economy that isn’t as elastic as gdp decreasing 33 percent one quarter and gdp increasing 20 percent the next quarter. 
 

That elasticity is due to the artificial shock of closing and opening economies and says nothing about the real state of the economy, which I think is difficult to know right now.

 

The decline in gdp would have been much slower (and perhaps deeper and longer) if we didn’t shut down. I’m not arguing against the shutdown. 

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

 

You've got to stop with this "everything is fine" shtick you refuse to let go of.  You say you worried about a K shape recovery the talk about how the economy is recovering. Its not, the wealth gap is getting split wide open right now, whos recovery? 

 

 

you are conflating jobs are increasing and a recovering economy with everything is fine. I never said everything was fine.

[Renegade7]

7 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

you are conflating jobs are increasing and a recovering economy with everything is fine. I never said everything was fine.

 

Then why bother even saying this, to keep conversation honest?

 

Quote

The economy certainly is improving. If you compare gdp from end of March beginning of April to now, there would likely be a large increase..... gdp is forecast to grow at its highest rate in many years Q3.

 

This article you referenced grinds my gears because its the same one Trump is going to spit out until his face changes color to show he's doing better then anyone ever in growing the economy.  Stop helping this schmuck. 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Renegade7

[skinsmarydu]

Ok, first of all, (and I can't believe I have to type this)...printing money has absolutely no bearing on the true economy. 

We've put that policy on steroids since '16. Started propping up the economy to the tune of a half a billion a month since at least a year ago. 

 

You've said you're in the industry? 

I laugh. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

23 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Then why bother even saying this, to keep conversation honest?

because you said you thought the employment numbers were being cooked. There is no need to cook them. 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Stop helping this schmuck. 

 

We should be truthful, not post only what hurts trump.

20 minutes ago, skinsmarydu said:

Ok, first of all, (and I can't believe I have to type this)...printing money has absolutely no bearing on the true economy. 

 

Not sure if this was directed at me, but if it was, we agree with each other.

[techboy]

44 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

@tshilesomeone the troll smiley was banned. Im not sure if that is true or not, but I think bcl said it, and it is poor taste anyway so I try to avoid it going forth, just sayin

 

I recently pointed out that @Jumbospecifically has warned (and worse) regarding trolling via smiley. 

 

At the time I directed it to someone else, but since we're on the topic, you do the same thing with the confused reaction, so I'm not sure Id be drawing attention to myself if I were you. 

 

The mods have pretty clearly set up a system where there is no "disagree" emoji, probably in an attempt to maintain a positive atmosphere.

 

Unless you're really that easily confused, of course. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

10 minutes ago, techboy said:

 

Unless you're really that easily confused, of course. 

I think I gave 1-2 confused smileys in the past week because I  was confused about the response but all in all I agree with you, we should all avoid leaving snarky smileys.

Edited September 5, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Renegade7]

14 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

because you said you thought the employment numbers were being cooked. There is no need to cook them. 

 

 

I never said cooked, that the stats usually presented in a way to make it look worse or better based point being made without using them to really address reality on the ground. 

 

Its really really bad and we can't get executive branch to take it seriously at all because it will show their hand they know how bad it is. Thats why whatever this is will be presented like the 1950s boom. Thats not what this is at all.

 

Quote

 

We should be truthful, not post only what hurts trump.

 

Did you read your own article? The next closest is 1950, and predicated on belief congress will still sign a relief bill.  Its disingenuous to present it the way you are, reality is they can't sign another bill when folks are convinced we can stay the course to get through this. COVID killed summer, it'll be too late when it kills Christmas, too.

Edited September 5, 2020 by Renegade7

[CousinsCowgirl84]

7 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I nevwr said cooked, that the stats usually presented in a way to make it look worse or better based point being made without using them to really address reality on the ground. 
 

 

well I’m not sure what the difference is between cooked and what you said is. 12 percent unemployment is still bad, but it’s better than 18 percent 

 

Quote

 

Did you read your own article? The next closest is 1950, and predicated on belief congress will still sign a relief bill.  Its disingenuous to present it the way you are, reality is they can't sign a bill when folks are convinced we can stay the course to get through this. COVID killed summer, it'll be too late when it kills Christmas, too.

I presented it as evidence the economy is recovering. The numbers are what they are.

Edited September 5, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[techboy]

I see no reason to think that the BLS is compromised by politics. This came up several months ago, and multiple reliable sources were firm that the numbers are generated by apolitical career officials, and the political appointee only sees them shortly before release, meaning there's no time to do anything shady.

 

Further, part of the problem is that in an attempt to maintain that rigid impartiality, they stick to the exact same process every time even when circumstances are unusual and make the results seem weird.

 

Some people then question the numbers, but the seemingly common sense alternative, to allow for changing the process to account for extraordinary outside events, is what would actually allow for manipulation and counterintuitively be what makes the numbers truly suspect.

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

well I’m not sure what the difference is between cooked and what you said is.
 

 

Because you hate statistics, same as me.

 

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I presented it as evidence the economy is recovering. The numbers are what they are.

 

I will note this post for when Q3 numbers are released then. GDP is one number in the economy conversation, your article preaches my point about messaging and what it will look like right before the election.

 

 

[techboy]

Also, the headline unemployment rate has always excluded people who have given up looking, for the good reasons @PleaseBlitzmentiobed. The other numbers that incorporate those people have also always been collected, calculated, and publicly available.

 

Generally, the incumbent references one number and the challenger references the other. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine which Trump thought was the better measure in 2015.

[Renegade7]

2 minutes ago, techboy said:

I see no reason to think that the BLS is compromised by politics. This came up several months ago, and multiple reliable sources were firm that the numbers are generated by apolitical career officials, and the political appointee only sees them shortly before release, meaning there's no time to do anything shady.

 

Further, part of the problem is that in an attempt to maintain that rigid impartiality, they stick to the exact same process every time even when circumstances are unusual and make the results seem weird.

 

Some people then question the numbers, but the seemingly common sense alternative, to allow for changing the process to account for extraordinary outside events, is what would actually allow for manipulation and counterintuitively be what makes the numbers truly suspect.

 

This is fair, i maintain the bigger problem is what's done with the data after its presented. Right now, nothing, because folks are expecting a bounce back and stock market is booming. 

 

Meantime people are suffering and states are fighting to make sure they don't run out of UI money from the close to million people adding on every week.  

 

At rate we are going there won't be another relief bill before the election. So many models are based on idea they will. Not that they wont.