The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[dfitzo53]

1 hour ago, PleaseBlitz said:

It’s the rock bottom interest rates and a lack of supply. 

Right, yeah.

[China]

 

[visionary]

 

[dfitzo53]

Not that I'm celebrating the news, but I'm honestly surprised department stores have hung on this long.

[Mr. Sinister]

2 hours ago, dfitzo53 said:

Not that I'm celebrating the news, but I'm honestly surprised department stores have hung on this long.

 

Same, especially the way online retail was hammering everybody even before all this

[Koala]

On 3/9/2020 at 11:05 AM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

I think this gives Trump an out. The economy is close to the top of the cycle anyway.  If we are still hearing about corona June we are in a bad place.

 

Its August, there's no end in sight, we are not in a bad place -- we are approaching the outer circles of Hell.  Its kinda fun reading old posts from early 2020, when were still so innocent, and free.  

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, Koala said:

 

Its August, there's no end in sight, we are not in a bad place -- we are approaching the outer circles of Hell.  Its kinda fun reading old posts from early 2020, when were still so innocent, and free.  

Indeed.... all he has to do was put fauci as the point guy then keep tweeting about pelosi... but he couldn’t even manage that....

[Llevron]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Indeed.... all he has to do was put fauci as the point guy then keep tweeting about pelosi... but he couldn’t even manage that....

 

He is his own worst enemy unless you start to consider the idea that hes doing it intentionally. 

 

 

Also, me and the fiance are first home shopping like everyone else and their mother right now and we got quoted a 2.25 interest rate! What kind of madness is this? And that was two weeks ago. I wanna see what i can get now. 

 

 

[Mr. Sinister]

He's doing it intentionally 

[JSSkinz]

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

Also, me and the fiance are first home shopping like everyone else and their mother right now and we got quoted a 2.25 interest rate! What kind of madness is this? And that was two weeks ago. I wanna see what i can get now. 

I would think about waiting unless you are in a dire need to buy a home.

 

There's a good chance the bottom will drop out of the market in the next 12 - 18 months, your buying at peak price right now.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[Llevron]

20 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

I would think about waiting unless you are in a dire need to buy a home.

 

There's a good chance the bottom will drop out of the market in the next 12 - 18 months, your buying at peak price right now.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

So what happens if the bottom falls out? Will that make the house itself cheaper or is that just making the interest rate better for me? 

[tshile]

3 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

So what happens if the bottom falls out? Will that make the house itself cheaper or is that just making the interest rate better for me? 

Price of the house cheaper. 
 

although rates might also go down further if that’s what the fed decides to do

 

Right now there’s a rush for single family housing. 
 

on the flip side market timing is tricky and doesn’t always work out. 

[JSSkinz]

Just now, Llevron said:

 

So what happens if the bottom falls out? Will that make the house itself cheaper or is that just making the interest rate better for me? 

Rates will be low for a while, especially with the current situation but if the pre-foreclosures start hitting the market and become the main supply as they did in 2008 - 2011 you could save $30k - $50k on your purchase.

 

You might even be able to buy a bank owned home at 65% to 70% LTV, it's very possible there is going to be opportunity for those who are patient.

 

I'm not saying this is definitely happening but you're going to beat yourself up if you buy at peak and realize you could have waited a year and saved a huge chunk of money.

 

 

[Llevron]

I appreciate the info fellas. I know that trying to time this stuff is next to impossible but I still understand where you are coming from given out current situation. She and I are still in a shopping phase and haven't fallen in love with anything. And im picky as hell. So staying put is probably an inevitability regardless. 

 

Also single family homes like you said are spending like 4 days on the market right now so its entirely possible I wont even play this game until it slows down significantly. It would suck to spend 10s of thousands of extra dollars. 

[tshile]

It also depends on where you live and what you’re looking for. 
 

im Nova being in the 300-500k range means houses move day 1 on the market and that won’t really change much. Prices might not even fall much here. 
 

no ones got a crystal ball it’s a gamble either way. 

[tshile]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Also single family homes like you said are spending like 4 days on the market right now so its entirely possible I wont even play this game until it slows down significantly. It would suck to spend 10s of thousands of extra dollars. 

It’s been doing it for a long time. I don’t know how waiting for it to slow down will help. When things crashed in 2008 first time home buyers were still in bidding wars. Investors scoop those properties up around here. It took us a long time to find our first house back then. 

in 2016 we sold. House was on the marker 3 days with 5 contracts and we coulda sold day one if we wanted to (that contract got it eventually)

 

make sure you find someone who actually pays attention to the market over a long period of time. I’ve been in/out since 2007 and it never really slowed down ever. When the economy collapses investors start buying up the cheaper end of things. 
 

im not saying definitely buy now. Just saying it’s a little more complicated than “it’s the peak wait a year”

 

around here, with that logic, you may be waiting forever. Or at least what feels like it. 

[PleaseBlitz]

Useful housing market forecasts:  https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-commentary

 

Bottom line, they don't expect things to change much any time soon for purchase transactions.  

[Llevron]

6 minutes ago, tshile said:

It’s been doing it for a long time. I don’t know how waiting for it to slow down will help. When things crashed in 2008 first time home buyers were still in bidding wars. Investors scoop those properties up around here. It took us a long time to find our first house back then. 

in 2016 we sold. House was on the marker 3 days with 5 contracts and we coulda sold day one if we wanted to (that contract got it eventually)

 

make sure you find someone who actually pays attention to the market over a long period of time. I’ve been in/out since 2007 and it never really slowed down ever. When the economy collapses investors start buying up the cheaper end of things. 
 

im not saying definitely buy now. Just saying it’s a little more complicated than “it’s the peak wait a year”

 

around here, with that logic, you may be waiting forever. Or at least what feels like it. 

 

6 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Useful housing market forecasts:  https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-and-commentary

 

Bottom line, they don't expect things to change much any time soon for purchase transactions.  

 

This is exactly the info I need. Thanks much. 

 

So long story short (asking for clarification) in your opinions, if we find something we love then we buy it. Assuming the dollars make cents. Waiting around, though possibly beneficial, would basically grantee that I miss out on the one I want for possibly little to no benefit. Thought there is a chance, timing it is so hard its almost not worth it if it does happen. 

 

See, doing this for the first time, I have never seen how fast the process works, and like you said @tshile being in the 300-500 range has been having these things moves in days. I always assumed it would take longer that. I thought until now that was a product of low interest rates and how people have been waiting for this to happen again. 

[PleaseBlitz]

If you find the house that you and fiance want to live in for the foreseeable future, and the monthly payments (a function of the price of the house and interest rates) are in your comfort zone, you should buy that house.  

[tshile]

Yeah buy the house that is what you want, what you can afford, makes sense for your plans long term, etc

 

if you are working solely on investment quality you’re going to wind up upset cause for every 1 of you out there there’s 10 others with capital looking for investments. It’s hard to be happy when that’s how the game stacks up. 
 

get something that aligns with the first paragraph and you’ll make money when you sell it, whenever and whatever it is, and you’ll have enjoyed your house while living there. 

12 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I thought until now that was a product of low interest rates and how people have been waiting for this to happen again. 

Housing in this area is like roads and people are like cars. 
 

too many cars not enough road. Too many people not enough housing. Same thing going on. 

[Llevron]

Yea this is very much appreciated you guys. The next time the fiance asks me why I talk about things other than football on a football website ima make her read these replies, hopefully from her new home, and tell her to apologize to you.  

 

Then she will laugh at me. 

[The Sisko]

On 7/30/2020 at 3:05 PM, Fred Jones said:

Will this change anything?

 

The rich and wealthy (not going to define them today) has been steadily paying less and less taxes and hiding more and more money off shore.  Republicans have been brainwashing and brainwashing since the early 70's after the greatest economic expansion in history also had the highest tax rates.

 

Someone has to start paying for the exploding deficit and future budgets.  The GOP hypocrites.  Some guy named Adam Smith, worshipped by Republicans, once theorized that businesses and individuals will generally make rational and prosperous decisions when given means and power to do so.  Yeah, take a look at Trump and the GOP today.  Power, greed and control or Authoritarian government.

 

So, will Warren win out and raise taxes on the rich and wealthy, will they increase the size of the IRS to go after all the rich people like Trump avoiding paying taxes?

The only way this works IMO is by simplifying the tax code so that increased taxes on the wealthy can't be avoided by paying more money to accountants to find loopholes. Simplifying the tax code would play well with most people in this country and as long as the increase in taxes is targeted in such a manner as to only affect the truly upper middle class and wealthy. The key to being able to deny the usual Grand Oligarch's Party charges of "The biggest tax increase since the Pleistocene era" would be to trot out any one of the thousands of tax breaks that benefit wealthy individuals and corporations and point out that's what they're defending. Another way of targeting is to use a trick from the Grand Oligarch's Party's playbook and simply add "fees" instead of taxes so the Dems can retain plausible deniability. I think even the most ardent of the non-wealthy conservatives would be hard pressed to care a whole lot about increased fees on hedge fund/high frequency trading over a certain threshold, transactions over a certain amount into or out of the country, private jet flights/business and 1st class seats, incorporating certain types of businesses that are typically used for shell companies, etc. Use the multitude of exotic ways these devils employ to dodge taxes and/or to avoid the everyday nuisances us unwashed masses put up with to pull revenue out of them. The goal would be to decrease loopholes and increase the cost of tax avoidance to the point it becomes less lucrative. If they think "Joe the plumber" is going to give a good goddamn about that, they're delusional. The other key to it will be working with the global community to put a stop to the international game of whack a mole caused in part by some countries engaging in a race to the bottom on tax rates. [Insert NWO/UN/Bilderbergers, etc. conspiracy theories here] Unfortunately for us and anyone really trying to implement the kind of schlock conspiracies the typical Tя☭mp/GOP cult member believes in, the Dems aren't that creative. They'll just do more of the same and get pilloried by the Republiklans and thrown out by the voters in the next midterm.🙄

 

58 minutes ago, Llevron said:

Yea this is very much appreciated you guys. The next time the fiance asks me why I talk about things other than football on a football website ima make her read these replies, hopefully from her new home, and tell her to apologize to you.  

 

Then she will laugh at me. 

She's going to do that all the time anyway. The jewelry salespeople have a strict code of silence but contempt and decreased libido are the surprise in the cereal box that come along with the ring. Get used to it. 😃

Edited August 3, 2020 by The Sisko

[NoCalMike]

I remember trying to buy after the crash and almost every house we were interested in, we were outbid immediately by investors who had more available cash on hand to throw down.  It got the point of frustration and we gave up.   Five years ago, we had a family friend who was in real estate and he was able to get us inside tracks on homes before they hit the websites and we were able to lock in a big which was accepted.  Without that inside track help I am not sure how we would have avoided a similar situation.

 

Sometimes the ability to make mortgage payments is not the issue with owning, it is all the money that goes towards the process of getting into the house in the first place.

[TheDoyler23]

1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

Rates will be low for a while, especially with the current situation but if the pre-foreclosures start hitting the market and become the main supply as they did in 2008 - 2011 you could save $30k - $50k on your purchase.

 

You might even be able to buy a bank owned home at 65% to 70% LTV, it's very possible there is going to be opportunity for those who are patient.

 

I'm not saying this is definitely happening but you're going to beat yourself up if you buy at peak and realize you could have waited a year and saved a huge chunk of money.

 

 

 

 

There may be some opportunities for sure, but demand is high right now (despite record unemployment) and people aren't tremendously under water in equity like in 2008 when the bottom fell out. Some people may be waiting till next year and push demand as buying in a pandemic doesn't suit them. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[skinsmarydu]

13 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Sometimes the ability to make mortgage payments is not the issue with owning, it is all the money that goes towards the process of getting into the house in the first place.

And upkeep. Gutters, yardwork, etc.