2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Admittedly I have not gone back and simply watched Christian, and the line has improved over the last few weeks.  It's also a small sample size against a couple of bad football teams.  Believe me, i'm not poopooing Christian because nothing would make me happier than to see him be starting quality.  It would open up our options to other areas with those resources.  I hope you're right, so don't take this as an anti-Geron Christian campaign.  What I don't want to see is us neglect a unit because they 'can be good enough.'  Not when we can use a 1st rounder on an LT that could set us up for the next decade.  On top of that, moving Christian to RT and supplanting an underachieving Moses, thus saving money and allowing us to use that to upgrade some other positions.  

 

I feel ya.  I suppose my stance is more in the line of, it's possible for the line to be decent without pouring resources into it.  The line is playing well lately.  I've been impressed by what the interior has done, and I wish I could compare better to his performance against the Lions and Jets, but I feel like Christian's run blocking improved.  He was using more power and driving guys when that was his assignment.  Not as much as Scherff and Flowers, but those guys were drafted Top 10 for a reason.

 

I think if we're able to retain Scherff and Flowers.  Move Christian to a starting spot.  Increase depth via the draft.  Our o-line would be pretty good next season.  But I realize that's a big IF.  A lot can happen once free agency starts.

 

[PartyPosse]

I’m always scared to death to draft a LT with a top 10 pick. Too many Robert Gallery types and not enough Trents.

[skinny21]

@Alcoholic Zebra I agree that Christian’s run blocking looked pretty good - he helped create some creases that lead to nice gains.

His pass blocking looked quite bad to me though, and that wasn’t against very talented rushers... He got bull rushed into Haskins, run around more than once and struggled picking up blitzers.  The best I can say about his pass pro is he held up his man one time and Scherff came over and walloped the guy.  I would definitely hope to add a tackle or two to at least compete with him.  

Moses looked surprisingly nimble to me and I feel like he did a far better job in pass pro.  Of course I’ve always felt he was a better protector than run blocker.  
 

 

BTW, on the AP touchdown, I noticed we had Bergstrom, Sprinkle and Hentges all lined up next to each other on the right side of the line.  Interesting look.  

[Master Blaster]

27 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I’m always scared to death to draft a LT with a top 10 pick. Too many Robert Gallery types and not enough Trents.

 

If my memory serves me correct, OL has one of the highest hit rates for high picks. 

There's only so many 300lbs humans alive that can move well enough to play in the NFL, and that's easily measured and observed on tape.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[nonniey]

It is entirely possible that we'll drop out of the top 7 picks if we win 1 more game (Giants?). If so what other players would we be looking at in the 8-10 range?

[HTTRDynasty]

35 minutes ago, nonniey said:

It is entirely possible that we'll drop out of the top 7 picks if we win 1 more game (Giants?). If so what other players would we be looking at in the 8-10 range?

 

Our primary targets would probably be Wirfs and Lamb.  I’d be crossing my fingers for Simmons to slide, but I doubt he would.  I know some would want Delpit...

[PlayAction]

Is Haskins suited to the WCO or is a new coach likely to change the offensive style?  The knock on Haskins has been his accuracy (a key requirement for a WCO QB).  It's interesting that Trey Quinn's production has vanished under Haskins (his throws are not on the mark).  If Haskins is better slinging it on intermediate and long routes how does that affect the personnel on Offense?  For example, WRs must have a wide catch radius; demonstrated ability to track the ball in flight; and good at fighting for possession on contested catches.  I'm thinking the Skins wind up dropping a lot of the WCO approach and go old school with a strong running game combined with the deep ball.     

[PartyPosse]

5 hours ago, Master Blaster said:

 

If my memory serves me correct, OL has one of the highest hit rates for high picks. 

There's only so many 300lbs humans alive that can move well enough to play in the NFL, and that's easily measured and observed on tape.

Maybe I'm wrong? That's just the perception i have. For ****s and giggles, here's the list of OL picked in the top ten in the last ten years. Seems like a 50/50 split.

 

Quenton Nelson (6th)

Mike McGlinchey (9th)

Ronnie Stanley (6th)

Jack Conklin (8th)

Brandon Scherff (5th)

Ereck Flowers (9th)

Greg Robinson (2nd)

Jake Matthews (6th)

Eric Fisher (1st)

Luke Joeckel (2nd)

Lane Johnson (4th)

Jonathan Cooper (7th)

Chance Warmack (10th)

Matt Kalil (4th)

Tyron Smith (9th)

Trent Williams (4th)

Russell Okung (6th)

[philibusters]

This my first post...

 

So I googled the issue of which positions were the safest first round draft pick and read three articles.   All three articles approached it from different angles and had different conclusions though you can sum up some common themes.  At the end of the post I linked the three articles I looked at:

 

My takeaways were this:

 

1.  The safest 2 positions to draft in the first round are safety and interior O-Line

2.   Linebacker is another safe position but isn't necessarily safer for top 10 compared to mid and late first round picks

3.  RB, WR, and D-Line are the riskest positions with the highest bust rate.

4.  QB is unique as it has a high rate of producing pro bowlers and a high rate of busts.   In terms of the all or nothing results, cornerbacks also had this tendency but not to the same degree as QB.

5.  Within the O-Line, interior O-Lineman are a safer bet than Tackles.  In general interior O-Line is safer, but O-Line as a whole is significantly less risky than D-Line.

6.   Things are different though when you analyze it from a value added perspective.  Not all positions are equal.  For example QB did well if you only look at expected value because the hits added the most value and while there were a lot of busts the hits were arguably the biggest wins of the draft.  WR's and D-Lineman had the same tendency to a lesser degree.

7.  If you want a first round WR, get an elite one.  The ones in the top 5 (at least in the last 10 years) did significantly better than those choose later in the first round.

8.  in general if you don't have an early pick, your best bet may be linebacker, safety, and interior O-Lineman.

 

I am a huge Maryland Terrapins fan.  In fact I am Maryland number 1, Redskins 2.   In terms of the two running backs, I see McFarland as more of  Chris Thompson 3rd down back.  He is a decent route runner, okay, but not great hands, and is a very dynamic athlete.    His athleticism is first round talent, but he is not a great everydown runner and doesn't have great hands so I would not use a high draft pick on him.  Javon Leake is a better every down back.  He has good top end speed (both Leake and McFarland are homerun hitters), but Leake has better vision and runs with a bit more power than McFarland.   McFarland is the better route runner as his athleticism lets him get in and out of cuts at a high level.  Leake may have better top end speed.  If you want an everydown back go with Leake.  If you want a third down back go with McFarland.

 

Two other Terps in the draft worth monitoring are Antoine Brooks and Keandre Jones.  Brooks is a great run support safety who plays really hard, but who is only serviceable in coverage.  He is kind of the prototypical SS of the 1980's before the game became so passing oriented.  That said a strong safety who excels in run support and who would be a good special teams contributor can win a roster spot even if their coverage skills are only serviceable.  You won't find a player who plays with more intensity than Antoine Brooks.     

Keandre Jones is a smallish Linebacker with decent, but not amazing athleticism who also plays the game really hard and is a good character guy.  He lead the Terps in disruptive plays and is decent in pass rush, run support, and coverage.  The issue with him is maybe he doesn't do any of them at an elite level.  That said if you are looking for depth at linebacker he should be a decent option and like Brooks should be a solid special teams contributor. 

 

One last Terp to be aware of is Tyler Mabry.  He probably is a well rounded TE who was a decent blocker and decent pass catcher though elite at neither.

 

If I could only pick one of those 5 guys, i'd probably go with Javon Leake because I think he potentially could be an every down starter at RB which would give him the most value.

  

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2017/04/nfl_draft_which_positions_are.html

https://www.footballperspective.com/which-positions-are-the-safest-to-draft-in-the-first-round/

[Skinsinparadise]

Brugler's mock.  I've watched plenty of Alabama and at times watched Wirfs but haven't studied him.  I notice Andrew Thomas has fallen in some mocks, at the very least among draft geeks he doesn't seem the clear #1 O lineman.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Be curious what @stevemcqueen1 thinks of Wills.

 

I just watched one game where I locked on to him, which isn't enough, I typically watch 5.  My main takeaway from that game was wow I love Alabama receivers.  I knew I loved them before but its striking when you are watching one player and in doing so you can't keep your eyes off of other players playing at the same time.

 

Wills reminds me some of Scherff.  Maybe with longer arms.  It was tough for me to gauge his arm length -- maybe they aren't long, or short, but medium?    He plays with a mean streak, decent at locking on to his man in the run game, strong hands, can get to the 2nd level and push people around, he can pull and block with power. 

 

As a pass protector though he looks decent but nothing special. I can see him doing better with power rushers than speed types.  It looks like slippery pass rushers with multiple moves can beat him.  He seems set up to defend the bull rush power types like a Kerrigan.  He doesn't strike me that fluid-agile where he's an athletic freak like Trent.

 

I can see why Saban had him play right over left.  He seems nicely suited to the run game on that side.  He's not bad as a pass protector.  But he doesn't strike me as an elite Trent type LT.  I can see them taking him if the idea is just to favor the run game, with Love and Guice, etc.  I think he would fit that.  But he doesn't strike me as a lockdown pass protector in the mode of a Trent or Peters, T. Smith, etc. 

[Est.1974]

On 12/3/2019 at 1:54 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

Last draft looked really good at TE alas not this season.   I think we need to hit FA.

 

OJ Howard via some form of trade would be my long-shot guess. 

[kingdaddy]

19 hours ago, nonniey said:

It is entirely possible that we'll drop out of the top 7 picks if we win 1 more game (Giants?). If so what other players would we be looking at in the 8-10 range?

Hopefully, if we slide that far down, we can get a late first for Trent from a team who thinks they're a LT away from a SB (Kansas City?).

Or maybe if we had a new GM Cleveland would be open to talk again? Regardless, between free agency (70 mil) and the TW saga this is gonna be one hell of an offseason. 

Would be great to get another stud WR like Jeudy if he falls to 8.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

5 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

OJ Howard via some form of trade would be my long-shot guess. 

 

Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry will be 26 next season and Free Agents.  That said, I can't really see either team wanting to let them walk.  Hooper is their best player entering FA, and they don't really have any other good ones.  So he's a perfect franchise tag target.  Although who knows what San Diego LA Chargers try and do, Philip Rivers is a FA and he's looking like retirement is around the corner.

[nonniey]

21 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Hopefully, if we slide that far down, we can get a late first for Trent from a team who thinks they're a LT away from a SB (Kansas City?).

Or maybe if we had a new GM Cleveland would be open to talk again? Regardless, between free agency (70 mil) and the TW saga this is gonna be one hell of an offseason. 

Would be great to get another stud WR like Jeudy if he falls to 8.

I wouldn't expect Jeudy to fall that far as he is a consensus top 3 player in this draft - possible but I think unlikely (Although if he does I'd jump on him immediately). As for a 1st for Trent - not happening; a 2d for Trent? That's not happening either.

[The Consigliere]

On 12/4/2019 at 9:57 AM, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Past Super Bowl winners:

Patriots - best OL was their RT

Eagles - best OL was their Center and RT

Patriots - best OL was their RT

Broncos - line was decent, their best was maybe the RG?

Patriots - best OL was...not sure, maybe their RT Sebastian Vollmer?

Seahawks - best OL was their Center

Ravens - best OL was their RG

Giants - best OL were their LG and RG

Packers - best OL was their LT

Saints - best OL was their RG

 

It doesn't matter where the best OL is, it just matters that the unit as a whole is good.  Blocking assignments shift from play to play based on playcall and what the defense is showing.  Talent anywhere on the line, makes things easier for everyone else.

And depth. Cluster injuries along the OL are a notorious line mover for oddsmakers in Vegas. 

[Commander Wolffe]

who are the TEs to look for in this draft?

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Be curious what @stevemcqueen1 thinks of Wills.

 

 

I haven't watched him enough yet either, but my initial take on Wills is that I like him quite a bit.  There are some warts, but nothing that scares me off.  He showed some strange technique in the South Carolina game where he was frequently taking an inside step and trying to long arm rushers with that inside hand and an open stance.  Could have been just taking the day off against a much smaller defender, or could be that something like his right shoulder was bothering him.  You're right, I remember Scherff doing that at Iowa, as well as demonstrating other technical quirks/deficiencies.  I'm curious to see what his arm length is at the combine.

 

He didn't do it as much in the LSU game.  Faster edge defenders so cheating inside didn't make sense.  He basically played them straight up--smooth kick step and slide protections with good patience to let the rusher show his cards before punching and planting his anchor.  I love his athleticism.  He is very twitchy and explosive and has great feet for the position.  Can slide and mirror in his sleep and he's very flexible.  Plays like a wrestler with great functional power and balance.  Reminds me of the kind of athlete that DaRon Payne is in how he uses explosive feet to beat the opponent to the fit, set up a great stance, and people-move.  Hands have pop.  Not as heavy and superlative as Austin Jackson's, but they're good.

 

He is a very talented run blocker.  Such explosive quickness to get over his match ups before they can fit and he seals those off tackle runs very nice.  Excellent ability to reach and he's a good runner who can stay low and keep his feet so he can be a difference maker downfield.  Could stand to get a little bit better at processing his targets in the second level more quickly.  He looks a little indecisive in that part of the run game at times.  Maybe it's an issue of just needing more mental reps than typical.

 

One weakness I saw was that the motor wasn't anything special.  And some of the late game reps looked a little sloppy too.  He might not have the best gas tank, and looks like there might be a little bit of sloppiness in his belly.  That's a little off-brand for Alabama players, as they are generally highly conditioned over-achievers who give consistent effort. 

 

Stylistically, he's a classic brawler at the position.  He likes block finishing and dumping ends who come in too flat.  He's tough and can eat a strong punch.  I like his meanness and that competitive fire compares favorably to the more finesse on-field demeanors of Wirfs and Thomas.  He could make Voch Lombardi's ass-whupping team.

 

Bottom line, I understand the first round projections for Wills and I think they're justified.  He's got some similarities to Cody Ford from last year, but I think he's better.  His run blocking is an NFL ready skill and he could certainly play guard as a rookie, especially on the right side.  His potential in pass-pro is really good.  Good enough to stay at tackle.  He's a little raw.  Combine the motor/conditioning issue with the technique/recognition issue and he's probably not going to be great as a rookie.  But I think he's naturally talented enough to start, and by his second or third year could be an excellent player.

 

If he gets in great shape, I think he might test really well at the combine.  But the problem for him is kind of the same as it is for Austin Jackson--there are two super athletes at the tackle position this year in Thomas and Wirfs.  Those guys are probably going to destroy the combine and make everyone else look slow.

 

Even still, he is way, way better than some of the OTs that have gone in the teens and twenties the past few drafts.  Early teens is a realistic range for him.  He's another argument in favor of trading down.

[Going Commando]

Javon Kinlaw is terrifying and huge.  He's even bigger and scarier than DeForest Buckner was.  A little bit like Muhammad Wilkerson but bigger.  He's going to make NFL players look small.  He's the guy you have step off the bus first.  Hot take for you all: it wouldn't shock me if he gets drafted ahead of Derrick Brown.

 

Another hot take: Najee Harris is the second best player on that Alabama team, after Tua.  This kid is better than Josh Jacobs was.  I have such a high degree of confidence that he's going to be a star in the NFL.  The game looks unbelievably easy for him in a way that is reminiscent of Adrian Peterson.  I love him and if we could somehow snag him in the second round, that would be a true coup.  It would give us the most talented stable of backs in the NFL.

 

I still really like the Alabama WR trio though.  Jeudy might not time as fast as he plays, but his short area quickness and agility is as good as it gets.  I could see him being a Calvin Ridley/Marvin Harrison school WR with a little bit extra shimmy and toughness after the catch in his game.  He's going to be a star too.  He can do it all and will be good as a rookie.  No-brainer top ten talent.

 

And even though we've discussed it at length, I think it deserves reiterating just how good the open field speed is for DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs.  Ruggs makes Parris Campbell look ordinary.  That is some true shot out of a canon speed and I could see him having a similar impact and role as John Ross, except that I think he's bigger and sturdier.  That doesn't sound like a compliment, but Ross was on his way to a huge season before he got hurt.  This is a game-breaking weapon who can score on really basic stuff and puts enormous pressure on safeties.

 

Smith probably won't time as fast as he plays either, but this guy is a glider who compares well to a bonafide freak like JaMar Chase in the open field.  He would be a huge get in the second round too, and a fantastic compliment to Terry McLaurin on the other side of the field.

[PartyPosse]

10 hours ago, philibusters said:

1.  The safest 2 positions to draft in the first round are safety and interior O-Line

Problem with safety is outside of Delpit and MAYBE McKinney, it's not a deep safety pool in terms of first round talent. There are guys like Brad Jones, Metellus, Dowell, JR Reed and Lacouture that could be had rounds 3 and later.

[Skinsinparadise]

44 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Even still, he is way, way better than some of the OTs that have gone in the teens and twenties the past few drafts.  Early teens is a realistic range for him.  He's another argument in favor of trading down.

 

I can see him in that range but what triggered me is Brugler had us picking him at #3.   On first blush he doesn't strike me as an elite level LT which I'd associate for that spot.  I'd have no problem trading down for him. 

12 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I still really like the Alabama WR trio though.  Jeudy might not time as fast as he plays, but his short area quickness and agility is as good as it gets.  I could see him being a Calvin Ridley/Marvin Harrison school WR with a little bit extra shimmy and toughness after the catch in his game.  He's going to be a star too.  He can do it all and will be good as a rookie.  No-brainer top ten talent.

 

And even though we've discussed it at length, I think it deserves reiterating just how good the open field speed is for DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs.  Ruggs makes Parris Campbell look ordinary.  That is some true shot out of a canon speed and I could see him having a similar impact and role as John Ross, except that I think he's bigger and sturdier.  That doesn't sound like a compliment, but Ross was on his way to a huge season before he got hurt.  This is a game-breaking weapon who can score on really basic stuff and puts enormous pressure on safeties.

 

Smith probably won't time as fast as he plays either, but this guy is a glider who compares well to a bonafide freak like JaMar Chase in the open field.  He would be a huge get in the second round too, and a fantastic compliment to Terry McLaurin on the other side of the field.

 

I am with you on the Alabama receivers. 

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am with you on the Alabama receivers. 

 

I think he might go too high to be a realistic option for us, but can you imagine what Ruggs would add to our offense?  A unit that already has Bryce Love and Terry McLaurin in it.  It would be horrible to play safety against.

 

John Ross was a top ten pick and it's hard to fathom speed like that falling out of the first round.  But trading Trent and getting Ruggs in the second round is a dream scenario.

[kingdaddy]

5 hours ago, nonniey said:

I wouldn't expect Jeudy to fall that far as he is a consensus top 3 player in this draft - possible but I think unlikely (Although if he does I'd jump on him immediately). As for a 1st for Trent - not happening; a 2d for Trent? That's not happening either.

I wouldn't be so sure....If we can't get at least a 2nd for him then I'd hold on to him and go through round two with him. Maybe we deal him midseason for a 2021 1st or 2nd? Or maybe a new GM gets him to play here again? Who knows, we do know that Trent likes Snyder which could mean something as this plays out? Still a long way to go with Trent's case.