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2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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11 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Even without Tua's injury I think there would be a substantial chance of Cincy taking Burrow #1 anyway. He's been absolutely unstoppable this season, and has played very well against some top defenses. Plus even before this last injury Tua had some durability/injury concerns. I'd be very conflicted if I had to choose between Burrow and a healthy Tua.

 

I will not be surprised in the least of they pick Chase.  Don't forget Burrow was all that last year, in fact you can say he wasn't even on the radar when compared to Tua or Hurst etc.  Soooo the question becomes how much of a change do they pick Chase?  I say it is probably around 30%, which if that happens then we are seating with a HUGE potential to get Miami's 3 number ones to move up and get Burrow or some other desperate team like the Chargers.  This could turn out to be a huge advantage for us.  Don't get me wrong if Chase is there we need to get him.  If not, we better be prepare to fleece someone. 

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6 minutes ago, TheGreek1973 said:

I will not be surprised in the least of they pick Chase.  Don't forget Burrow was all that last year, in fact you can say he wasn't even on the radar when compared to Tua or Hurst etc.  Soooo the question becomes how much of a change do they pick Chase?  I say it is probably around 30%, which if that happens then we are seating with a HUGE potential to get Miami's 3 number ones to move up and get Burrow or some other desperate team like the Chargers.  This could turn out to be a huge advantage for us.  Don't get me wrong if Chase is there we need to get him.  If not, we better be prepare to fleece someone. 

If Burrow balls out in the championship game, he'll be the guaranteed 1st pick. If he throws a few picks, and they lose, then the percentage of them passing on them grows to 30-35. I still think they take him. They need a QB badly.

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29 minutes ago, TheGreek1973 said:

I will not be surprised in the least of they pick Chase.  Don't forget Burrow was all that last year, in fact you can say he wasn't even on the radar when compared to Tua or Hurst etc.  Soooo the question becomes how much of a change do they pick Chase?  I say it is probably around 30%, which if that happens then we are seating with a HUGE potential to get Miami's 3 number ones to move up and get Burrow or some other desperate team like the Chargers.  This could turn out to be a huge advantage for us.  Don't get me wrong if Chase is there we need to get him.  If not, we better be prepare to fleece someone. 

 

It's possible but I'd put it at closer to 5-10% myself. They basically have no QB. Dalton is as good as gone as there's zero cap hit for getting rid of him. Finley is mediocre and I doubt they see him as the future; he's a decent backup and that's about it. It's possible they may look to the 2021 QB class and think they could get an even better prospect in Lawrence but that's a dangerous game to play as there's about a 99% chance of Lawrence going #1 overall. So if Cincy doesn't get the #1 pick next year they'll either have to settle for the 2nd best QB (and who knows who that will be or how good he'll be) or give up some massive haul of picks to move to #1 that would probably make the RG3 trade look like child's play. And that's if the team with #1 overall doesn't need a QB. It would be hard for anyone to pass up on a QB prospect of Lawrence's caliber.

 

Positional value comes into play as well. Is Burrow as good a QB prospect as Chase is a DE prospect? No. But he's a damn good prospect who's had an absolutely amazing year and has dominated some top defenses. For a team in dire need of a QB, that position trumps DE. IMO Burrow is a superior prospect to Murray and the Cards still took Murray #1 overall over Bosa, who was considered the best player in the draft and a can't miss DE prospect. I doubt there was all that much thought of going with Bosa. And they already had a QB at the time as well that they'd taken in the top 10 the prior year. 

 

I think they'll Keep It Simple, Stupid and go QB. Then we'll Keep It Simple, Stupid and go with Chase. Usually that's how it ends up playing out with a few rare exceptions. There's always talk about some wild unexpected picks in the top 5 but they only rarely happen it seems. Usually the pre-draft consensus of the top players and where they'll likely go is pretty spot on. 

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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Who would have thought, given the really impressive OLine legacies of schools like Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, USC, and Ohio State, that little old Colorado is the one with the best pair of tackle alums active in the NFL.

 

Man that list really hammers home our substandard quality on the offensive line.  We're old and bad and fairly expensive, and perhaps about to get even more expensive if we keep Scherff.  We have spent a lot of capital on the group without getting good enough results.

 

Guard rankings

 

 

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17 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've loved Chase Young for most of this college season.  I think he will be an absolute stud.  But I am not in the camp of I'd not trade the 2nd pick.  It would have to be a good haul so I wouldn't be a cheap date on that front but I think I would do it if I can get two of the Dolphins first round picks and their 2nd.

 

 

That would be one of the biggest trade hauls in history.

 

I know it's horribly outdated, but the old Jimmy Johnson chart has that trade even with just the first two picks. That second rounder sends it into "Oh my god, yes" zone.

 

Considering that 18 represents Minkah Fitzpatrick, Young would have to be immediately more transformative than Lawrence Taylor for Miami to sell that trade to its fanbase.

 

35 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think they'll Keep It Simple, Stupid and go QB. Then we'll Keep It Simple, Stupid and go with Chase. Usually that's how it ends up playing out with a few rare exceptions. There's always talk about some wild unexpected picks in the top 5 but they only rarely happen it seems. Usually the pre-draft consensus of the top players and where they'll likely go is pretty spot on. 

 

Yea, this is a pretty clear cut #1 and #2 situation. I honestly think anyone trying to disrupt that is just bored.

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4 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

That would be one of the biggest trade hauls in history.

 

I know it's horribly outdated, but the old Jimmy Johnson chart has that trade even with just the first two picks. That second rounder sends it into "Oh my god, yes" zone.

 

Considering that 18 represents Minkah Fitzpatrick, Young would have to be immediately more transformative than Lawrence Taylor for Miami to sell that trade to its fanbase.

 

 

Yeah it was basically be 75% or so of the RG3 trade or in other words the RG3 trade sans one of the 1 picks.

 

I wouldn't do it if I were the Dolphins.  I love Tua but I wouldn't trade the farm to move up -- considering injury concerns that predates his last injury, too. 

 

But yeah on my side of things, I'd have to be blown away.   On 106.7 the other day Danny-Grant mentioned they'd do it if it were for the 2 of the three Dolphins first rounds pick -- their highest one and their low first round pick.  I wouldn't do that deal myself. 

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32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Guard rankings

 

So we're in much better shape at guard than at tackle, provided Scherff stays.

 

Notre Dame, Iowa, and Wisconsin fare better on this list.  Say you could build a line out of NFL active alums from any school, which one is the right choice?

 

The answer to that question might change after this draft too, when Biadasz and Wirfs and Thomas/Kindley/Wilson all come into the league.  Creed Humphrey could swing my vote too.

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Posted (edited)

Defensive tackle rankings.  If you noticed the NY Giants D lineman scores.  Part of my paranoia when the Giants were on track for the #2 pick is i think their D line was a Chase Young (just as much as ours) from being really good.  They are lacking a killer edge guy.   But otherwise they have 3 DTs ranked ahead of any of our guys.  i am not saying PFF is the be all and end all but I do believe from watching the Giants they genuinely have a good D line but are missing really one pass rusher. 

 

 

 

 

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Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Posted (edited)

He isn't my favorite player in the draft but he's #2.  My fav would be Chase Young and i got no cognitive dissonance on it.  But if we trade down, I'd have to feel confident Simmons could be had.  I think the combine might shoot up his stock where the perception becomes that he's a slam dunk top 5 pick.  right now on most mocks i see him in the 8-12 range.

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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I'm not as enamored with PFF as most in this thread seem to be.  But one thing to note from that TE list, looks like the free agent to be TE's suck at run blocking according to PFF.  Hooper, Henry, and Eifert.  Pair that with a middling TE draft class and...

 

Adam Trautman in the 3rd round could be a good get for us.  Senior Bowl will be huge for his draft stock.  If he can hang, he probably wouldn't make it to our 4th rounder.  If he can hang and blow up the combine, then he's too rich for our 3rd rounder.

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I've highlighted Bowden before.   Saying Lynn Bowden is the Simmons type for an offense would be somewhat hyperbole.   But the point is in that flavor.  The dude is versatile.  Interesting weapon.  You can use him like the Saints use Taysom Hill among other things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Adam Trautman in the 3rd round could be a good get for us.  Senior Bowl will be huge for his draft stock.  If he can hang, he probably wouldn't make it to our 4th rounder.  If he can hang and blow up the combine, then he's too rich for our 3rd rounder.

 

I haven't watched him but plan to.   I notice Brugler is touting him all over twitter. 

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8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

He isn't my favorite player in the draft but he's #2.  My fav would be Chase Young and i got no cognitive dissonance on it.  But if we trade down, I'd have to feel confident Simmons could be had.

 

A good logical argument can be made that the only trade down to where we can say we have a shot at Simmons is 3rd overall.  I think Simmons is going to be a Top 5 pick, and I'm guessing he's going no later than 4.

 

If we trade down to 3, with the Lions, then they're taking Young and we could take Simmons.

If we trade down to 4, with the Giants, then they're taking Young and I would guess the Lions would take Simmons. 

If we trade down to 5, the Dolphins take Tua, the Lions take Young, and the Giants take Simmons.

 

The biggest defensive strength in this draft, is CB.  The Giants can draft a pretty good prospect with pick #36.  Another strength of the draft is OT.  The Giants can decide to wait on a OT, until pick #36, or later to pick #68.  They wouldn't get a likely Day 1 starter, but they'd get a really good developmental prospect, who could maybe start later on as the year progresses. 

 

If the Giants take a CB or OT at #4, they won't find another good LB in this draft with their later picks.  From looking at mocks and big board rankings, there isn't a LB projected for the 2nd round, and maybe not even in Day 2.  If the Giants want to upgrade that spot through the draft, it has to be at #4.

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13 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

I'm not as enamored with PFF as most in this thread seem to be.  But one thing to note from that TE list, looks like the free agent to be TE's suck at run blocking according to PFF.  Hooper, Henry, and Eifert.  Pair that with a middling TE draft class and...

 

Adam Trautman in the 3rd round could be a good get for us.  Senior Bowl will be huge for his draft stock.  If he can hang, he probably wouldn't make it to our 4th rounder.  If he can hang and blow up the combine, then he's too rich for our 3rd rounder.

 

 

Complete Tight Ends don't see free agency. They are just way too valuable right now.

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17 hours ago, volsmet said:


This draft may have the best DE, QB, WR, OT, & Lb/S hybrid prospects in the last few years. I need to watch a lot more of Thomas, but the bit I’ve seen was special. Chase is the best defensive prospect in the last 10 years, imo. Jeudy is the best WR prospect I’ve seen in quite some time, but I evaluate WRs about as well as Screech Powers evaluates outfits. Tua is as special a QB prospect as we’ve seen in several years. Okudah is the best CB prospect I’ve seen ... going back further than I can bring to mind. Then there is Simmons, who may end up being the most impactful prospect in the class. Simmons is elite in coverage & great when asked to rush, he can play nearly anything other than DT ... I wouldn’t even be hesitant to match him up outside v a WR like Alshon if injuries necessitated it... and I’d expect him to produce if my roster needed an EDGE for a week. He’s about as unique a guy as I’ve seen, he’s unbelievably explosive & can play FS, SS, any LB, slot cb, and rush ... he punishes backs that step up to block him & he makes a lot of the defensive calls for the Tigers; he’s supposed to have an incredible understanding of what the most creative DC in the country throws at him each week. I know some of Clemsons opponents have called him the brightest defensive player they’ve had to go up against.
 

It’s tougher to scheme v Simmons than any DE in today’s nfl. I believe Mack went about 7 weeks without a sack? Something like that. The freaks off the edge aren’t as disruptive to the game as they once were, but Chase is still the guy I’m taking because you can’t simulate fear & he will put it in every QBs head all game long. Trevor Lawrence wouldn’t drop back at all v OSU, he was crawling *up his centers arse every time he needed to attempt a pass & Clemson looked like Navy because of it... well, he & the unbelievable job Okudah did all night on the big WRs from Clemson.

 

 

I agree with almost all of this, except the bit about Mack being  good comp for an elite pass rusher. And I have Simmons just a little lower than you do. Mack has, for most of his career, not produced sacks at an elite level. This was true in college and has been true in the pro's. as a collegiate, he produced, 4.5, 5.5, 8 and 10.5 sacks. In the pro's, in his second year, he produced 15 sacks. In his other years he has posted 4, 11, 10.5, 12.5, and 8.5 sacks. I'm not saying he's not a great player. He is also great against the run and offers very good positional flexibility. And he commands double teams. But, he hasn't been any more productive than Ryan Kerrigan in sacking the QB. Mack is no Von Miller. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MackKh00.htm

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/khalil-mack-1.html

 

Simmons, I think, will be very good, for all of the reasons you mentioned. I think worries about him being a hybrid player and requiring a special defensive scheme, are overblown. I think that for a team like the Skins, you plug him in at Will, or even Sam. From there you can add to his traditional run support duties by occasionally having him pick up a WR in coverage or drop to the deeper zones as a safety. He can also easily rush the passer from Sam or Will. It doesn't have to be rocket surgery. 

 

Like you, I also LOVE Jeudy and Okudah. I wish there was a way we could get Chase and still add one of Okudah, Simmons, or Jeudy. They are all going to be stars. I honestly don't think Jeudy can be successfully single covered in today's NFL. His quickness and route running are too good. In the right scheme, he is going to be open all day. 

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7 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

A good logical argument can be made that the only trade down to where we can say we have a shot at Simmons is 3rd overall.  I think Simmons is going to be a Top 5 pick, and I'm guessing he's going no later than 4.

 

If we trade down to 3, with the Lions, then they're taking Young and we could take Simmons.

If we trade down to 4, with the Giants, then they're taking Young and I would guess the Lions would take Simmons. 

If we trade down to 5, the Dolphins take Tua, the Lions take Young, and the Giants take Simmons.

 

The biggest defensive strength in this draft, is CB.  The Giants can draft a pretty good prospect with pick #36.  Another strength of the draft is OT.  The Giants can decide to wait on a OT, until pick #36, or later to pick #68.  They wouldn't get a likely Day 1 starter, but they'd get a really good developmental prospect, who could maybe start later on as the year progresses. 

 

If the Giants take a CB or OT at #4, they won't find another good LB in this draft with their later picks.  From looking at mocks and big board rankings, there isn't a LB projected for the 2nd round, and maybe not even in Day 2.  If the Giants want to upgrade that spot through the draft, it has to be at #4.

 

The Giants are in a fascinating spot.  Gettleman doesn't trade down - ever.  So I strongly believe they are staying put at #4 no matter what.  They have strong needs at OT, EDGE, LB, and CB, which aligns nicely for them with the top players in the draft (Thomas, Young, Simmons, Okudah).  If I had to guess, I think they'd take the highest rated OT on their board, for a few reasons:

1.  Their current OT's are terrible.

2.  Their QB has an extreme fumbling problem, and it's mostly because he has a hard time feeling pressure on the edge.

3.  That's a huge issue, because the EDGE players in the NFCE are going to feast if they go up against weak OTs.  Demarcus Lawrence, Brandon Graham, Chase Young, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat, Derek Barnett.  That mix is enough to make any QB turnover prone, but it will be especially tough for "Danny Dimes" to deal with.

4.  Gettleman loves his "Hog Mollies"

5.  They invested heavily in the CB position in the 2019 draft, so if Okudah falls to them, I'm not sure they put more resources there.

 

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Thanks SIP.

 

Few thoughts:

-SDH is such a stud in coverage.  I think he's definitely our WILL. 

-Holcomb is terrible in coverage, but he's a great athlete so I wonder how much a scheme change would help him with that.  JDR is known for keeping his players' responsibilities simple.

-There aren't a lot of good, young LB's set to hit the market.  The few that are out there are good in coverage but terrible in run defense, which is something we already have.

-I wonder if Rivera would consider trading for Luke Keuchly.  Personally, I wouldn't do it, but it's an intriguing option to consider.  Their new HC, Rhule, just received a 7 year contract.  Other than CMC, that core isn't getting any younger.  Why not trade away Cam and Luke and tank for Trevor Lawrence?  Re-build from the ground up.

-Anthony Harris and Justin Simmons are both players I want badly for this team, and they're both UFA's.  I doubt Denver lets Simmons walk, but I think Harris might become available.  Jimmy Ward is also an UFA, but I wouldn't trust him due to his health issues.  Though he'd be a good option B at the position I guess.

-I really hope the Cowboys don't trade their first round pick for Jamaal Adams.  That defense would be nasty.

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