2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[method man]

The team should push hard to trade Dunbar for OJ Howard. Both guys with one year remaining on their contracts who are set to leave their current teams. TB has a big need at corner and the weakness there is one reason their D is so bad (they cut a starter midseason). They also have Brate, who can just start moving forward at TE

 

Word on Howard is that he is a hardworking guy. For some reasons, things have just not worked out well for him in Tampa. He could be a guy you make a bet on now and give a reasonable extension to. 
 

Cooley loves Woerner, the TE from UGA. Thinks he is very underrated by evaluators because he was getting just 10 catches a season. Called him the best blocking TE in the draft with receiving upside because he will surprise with his athleticism. Getting him in the 5th - 6th would be great. Could compete with Hentges for that no. 2 TE role

 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, method man said:

The team should push hard to trade Dunbar for OJ Howard. Both guys with one year remaining on their contracts who are set to leave their current teams. TB has a big need at corner and the weakness there is one reason their D is so bad (they cut a starter midseason). They also have Brate, who can just start moving forward at TE

 

Word on Howard is that he is a hardworking guy. For some reasons, things have just not worked out well for him in Tampa. He could be a guy you make a bet on now and give a reasonable extension to. 
 

Cooley loves Woerner, the TE from UGA. Thinks he is very underrated by evaluators because he was getting just 10 catches a season. Called him the best blocking TE in the draft with receiving upside because he will surprise with his athleticism. Getting him in the 5th - 6th would be great. Could compete with Hentges for that no. 2 TE role

 

I've been all about getting OJ Howard since that draft.

[method man]

13 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I've been all about getting OJ Howard since that draft.

In an ideal world, you sign Hooper and pocket the 3rd/4th you get for Dunbar but I have a feeling Hooper may become the highest paid TE this offseason, which I wouldn’t want to be a part of
 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

We NEED a TE for this offense and we need it for the development of Haskins. TE and CB are the two positions I am okay and want to spend up on in FA. Get me Henry or Hooper or Enron and draft a guy.

 

If you land Henry or Hooper maybe you wait until the 5th to add a guy. If you sign Enron maybe you look to TE in the draft a little earlier. It takes a couple years for TEs to get acclimated so you’re still drafting for a potential 2021/2022 starter and a Backup/role player in 2020. Which is why we have to spend up at TE in FA because nobody we add in the draft will have an immediate impact. 

Count me as all in on Dunbar for Howard. I’ll still try to draft a TE maybe in R5 Since he’s on the final year of his contract but I love Howard’s upside. Then use the one year savings at TE (presumably still paying Howard low rookie salary even if an extension occurs) to sign Bradberry and a second FA CB like Dennard or Worley to backfill Dunbar

[skinny21]

@method man Woerner is a the former safety, I believe?  Yeah, Georgia didn’t use him at all, but he blocks his butt off.  
 

@KDawg  To your point, guys like O’Grady and Pinckney have some red flags and I’m not sure I see a massive difference between them and Breeland, Asiasi, and maybe Deguara. Then you have interesting, but potentially UDFAs like Magnifico and Woerner.  I could see drafting one late and then adding an UDFA.  Not sure I see Turner being comfortable with that, but options are limited in FA.  Two semi-cheaper guys I’d consider (though I’d guess they return to their respective teams) are Fells and Barwin.  

[method man]

Just now, skinny21 said:

@method man Woerner is a the former safety, I believe?  Yeah, Georgia didn’t use him at all, but he blocks his butt off.  
 

@KDawg  To your point, guys like O’Grady and Pinckney have some red flags and I’m not sure I see a massive difference between them and Breeland, Asiasi, and maybe Deguara. Then you have interesting, but potentially UDFAs like Magnifico and Woerner.  I could see drafting one late and then adding an UDFA.  Not sure I see Turner being comfortable with that, but options are limited in FA.  Two semi-cheaper guys I’d consider (though I’d guess they return to their respective teams) are Fells and Barwin.  

Jarwin is a RFA. Not worth pick compensation

[KDawg]

14 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

We NEED a TE for this offense and we need it for the development of Haskins. TE and CB are the two positions I am okay and want to spend up on in FA. Get me Henry or Hooper or Enron and draft a guy.

 

Again, I think we have a tight end. Hale Hentges. I understand the hesitation from anyone else for believing so, though. As he has literally proven nothing.

 

Henry would be a great get, but how much do we want possible $10m/year sitting on the IR list? Is he worth it then? I don't think so. At all. I'd rather have Diggs or Cooper at a higher cost than Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper.

 

OJ Howard is intriguing. Depending on what he would cost to acquire. 

 

I don't like the tight ends over other positions in this draft. I would have a real tough time justifying a tight end other than Trautman or Kmet over, say, Akeem Davis, or one of the receivers, or even a corner. Or Saadiq Charles. Or Cushenberry. 

 

Count me as all in on Dunbar for Howard. I’ll still try to draft a TE maybe in R5 Since he’s on the final year of his contract but I love Howard’s upside. Then use the one year savings at TE (presumably still paying Howard low rookie salary even if an extension occurs) to sign Bradberry and a second FA CB like Dennard or Worley to backfill Dunbar

 

I'd be in for Dunbar for Howard. I would not be in for drafting another TE in that scenario unless they were the true BPA in the later rounds. 

 

Getting help at tight end is important even if Hentges is going to be a dude. Sprinkle could be a 3. Need that #2 or a guy to start and let Hentges develop as the 2. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@KDawg i like Hentges but i just don’t think you can rely on him. I can get on board with him as your TE2 if you bring in a stud TE1. But I do think you’d want to bring someone in. Maybe 7th or UDFA to compete for TE3 with Sprinkle. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@KDawg i like Hentges but i just don’t think you can rely on him. I can get on board with him as your TE2 if you bring in a stud TE1. But I do think you’d want to bring someone in. Maybe 7th or UDFA to compete for TE3 with Sprinkle. 

 

I can get behind a similar take. 

 

I just don't think Hooper, Henry or Ebron are anywhere near worth the resources needed to get them. And the draft is so loaded at OT/LB/WR/CB/RB that I'd struggle taking one of the tight ends that are all grouped on top of each other talent/prospect wise over any of the guys who could be on the board in the 3rd/4th/5th.

 

That's not to say tight end isn't important. But what's more important is not reaching for the sake of reaching. 

[Koolblue13]

Not drafting a TE last year, which was for TEs like this year is for WRs was a huge failure. Especially when looking at our roster.

 

I like Hentges. A lot. He is not a TE1 "yet" and we absolutely need a better than good TE. It's irresponsible not to have one with a young QB.

 

If it's Dunbar or a pick or whatever, I'm on board with trading for Howard. He checks every box and should be perfect for our offense.

 

TE right now, is our biggest hole IMO.

[Redskins Reparations]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I am okay rolling with Hentges, Sprinkle and Wilson. I'd like to upgrade there, so if we could find a late rounder or a cheaper FA option that would be good. 

 

Cam Sims at tight end...

 

I am certainly not qualified as a NFL talent evaluator but I thought Sprinkle showed improvement after his rookie year?  From what I understand TE is an extremely difficult position to transition from college and into the NFL.  Most TE take a few years in the NFL to develop into an effective contributor. 

Oh...and NO to Cam Sims at TE!

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Redskins Reparations said:

 

I am certainly not qualified as a NFL talent evaluator but I thought Sprinkle showed improvement after his rookie year?  From what I understand TE is an extremely difficult position to transition from college and into the NFL.  Most TE take a few years in the NFL to develop into an effective contributor. 

 

He's not a bad tight end. He's just not a guy you want handling the primary set of your snaps. I don't think he was as bad as most people here think. He had a few big drops which soured people on him. He also doesn't block great. But I like him. I'd keep him around as long as we can. He's cheap, he's a Redskin and he's proven he can play adequately if he needs to.

 

Hentges is untapped potential at the moment. He had one game that he produced, but man, I think he has breakout written all over him.

 

Wilson is an unknown.

 

I don't think our TEs are as bad as many. We can certainly upgrade there. And finding a safety valve for whoever our QB will be is pretty important. 

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

I don't think our TEs are as bad as many. We can certainly upgrade there. And finding a safety valve for whoever our QB will be is pretty important. 

One mans TE panic is another mans LBer squad.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[skinny21]

8 minutes ago, Redskins Reparations said:

 

I am certainly not qualified as a NFL talent evaluator but I thought Sprinkle showed improvement after his rookie year?  From what I understand TE is an extremely difficult position to transition from college and into the NFL.  Most TE take a few years in the NFL to develop into an effective contributor. 

Honestly?  Sprinkle maybe gets a bit more hate than he should.  IMO Sprinkle has done ok as a receiver.  His untimely drops have hurt us, but he’s also scooped a few from the grass and whatnot.  He’s a big target and gets open with some regularity.  I’m not impressed with him as a blocker, though this is an area that can improve with time/experience.  Hentges has already looked far better in this department, but then again, he was the blocking TE at Alabama... so he had the chops already.  
 

Overall, I think they’re both ok as number 2s with room for growth into (potentially) good second options or maybe even lower end number 1s.  With Caleb Wilson in the fold, our TE group is actually pretty interesting/intriguing... the problem is a matter of trusting them to become more than they’ve shown.  This is the same for any TE we draft though, which is why I can understand the desire to pick up a FA.  
 

Personally, I’m not terribly concerned about this year, so I’m fine just wading into the draft pool and seeing how much a rookie can develop by next year.  

[Fresh8686]

Quote

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-investigating-historical-draft-success-at-defensive-positions

 

Cornerbacks

Cornerback is a position that has been drafted incredibly well in the first round, as there are very few busts, and there is a high drop-off to the second round. In fact, it's the largest drop-off among all positions. Consequently, teams should always look if there is a cornerback worth pulling the trigger on when on the clock on Day 1.

If you haven't drafted a cornerback after Round 2 or 3, you might as well fill other needs first and wait until later rounds for one, as the best cornerbacks are most likely already off the board and teams haven't generally been good at identifying mid-round gems.

Draft success for cornerbacks

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	86	57	43	38
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	39.2%	10.1%	4.7%	3.2%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	75.3%	40.1%	27.0%	22.4%

 

Quote

Safeties — Coverage

Safeties haven't been evaluated quite as well as cornerbacks, and the reason could be that they have fewer clearly defined one-on-one matchups than cornerbacks and are therefore harder to evaluate (we've found that a defensive back's performance in man or press coverage is more stable). Yet there is still a significant drop-off to the next rounds, and consequently, we would keep them on the board on Day 1. Of course, safeties have more responsibility than coverage…

Draft success for safeties in coverage

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	74	59	52	49
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	28.8%	15.0%	9.5%	6.5%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	58.1%	44.6%	36.9%	31.8%

Safeties — Run defense

…and apparently, teams have been better at identifying safeties against the run than safeties against the pass. The ability against the run isn't as important as the ability to cover, yet this is an encouraging result for drafting safeties in the first round. On the other hand, it could detect an inefficiency, as the discrepancy could be explained by teams focussing too much on run defense when evaluating safeties in the draft process.

Draft success for safeties in run defense

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	82	63	52	44
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	37.6%	16.3%	8.2%	5.1%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	70.5%	47.9%	33.5%	26.1%

 

Quote

Linebackers — Coverage

The expectation for linebackers in coverage doesn't deviate much from the 50th percentile, no matter where you draft them. Just as it does for safeties, this could again stem from the fact that linebackers are hardly asked to play press or even man coverage in college. Only eight linebackers in the whole nation had 150 or more snaps in man coverage in 2019, as opposed to 16 linebackers in the NFL, even though there are much fewer teams in the NFL than the NCAA.

Draft success for linebackers in coverage

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	63	59	55	52
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	19.3%	14.1%	11.0%	8.6%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	47.4%	43.4%	39.7%	36.0%

Linebackers — Run defense

Interestingly, teams have also been bad at selecting linebackers against the run. Given that draft position has hardly mattered for linebackers in both of their core tasks, the first round might be the time to ignore the overconfidence in the draft evaluation when it comes to linebackers. Nevertheless, linebackers who can cover the pass have a high value, thus taking chances at talented prospects on Day 2 should still be in play.

Draft success for linebackers in run defense

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	61	57	54	52
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	18.2%	11.2%	8.0%	6.2%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	47.0%	41.0%	37.2%	34.9%

Of course, one can make the point that this doesn't hold for players who are more versatile than classical linebackers, like this year's top prospect, Isaiah Simmons, who plays more than just one position.

 

Quote

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-investigating-historical-draft-success-at-offensive-positions

 

Wide receivers

Along with quarterbacks and cornerbacks, wide receiver is one of the positions that is drafted to do mostly one thing. For receivers, that one thing is running routes and catching passes. Knowing this, we only have to consider the receiving grade.

Unlike quarterbacks, good wide receivers can be found on Day 2, as the realistic upside is present well into the third round. Nevertheless, investing in the supposed best wide receivers even earlier could pay off, as the chance of getting a stud when drafting early is higher than for any other offensive position.

Draft success for wide receivers

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	79	67	57	46
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	32.7%	17.6%	9.2%	4.8%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	64.3%	52.8%	41.4%	32.1%

Tight Ends — Receiving

The curve for tight ends is flatter than that for wide receivers, i.e., teams weren't able to separate the very good tight ends and draft them in the first round. The drop-off from Round 1 to Day 2 isn't as large as for wide receivers, regardless of whether you care about the expectation or the chance to get a stud or a starter. Consequently, pulling the trigger on a tight end on Day 1 might not be a good idea, given that there are good options to be found later.

Draft success for tight ends in receiving success

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	72	66	61	55
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	27.6%	17.7%	10.8%	5.9%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	55.2%	50.3%	43.5%	35.6%

An exception for tight ends is that the curve doesn't flatten out on Day 3, as it stays mostly linear. A possible explanation is that teams don't focus on receiving abilities at this point in the draft and instead choose to give snaps to tight ends solely for their blocking abilities.

Tight Ends — Run blocking

This theory is strengthened by the curve for run blocking because it suggests that teams are either flat-out terrible at identifying good run-blocking tight ends or that they don't put emphasis on it within the very early rounds.

Draft success for tight ends in run blocking

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	50	49	49	49
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	18.2%	13.8%	11.6%	10.0%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	40.3%	38.0%	36.6%	35.5%

Running backs — Running

The core task of a running back is rushing the football. However, teams weren't successful at identifying better runners early in the draft — that is if these “better runners” even exist.

Draft success for running backs in rushing success

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	38	38	38	41
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	14.4%	9.0%	6.8%	5.3%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	32.8%	28.8%	27.2%	26.0%

Running Back — Receiving

More often than ever, running backs are asked to run (mostly short) routes and catch passes in today's NFL. Might the lack of relationship between draft position and rushing success be explained by teams putting more emphasis on receiving abilities?

At least we don't find any evidence for this in the data.

Draft success for running backs in receiving success

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	48	50	49	48
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	10.1%	7.2%	5.2%	3.8%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	35.8%	35.5%	33.4%	31.2%

Pairing this finding with an earlier finding that running backs are generally replaceable, there is no reason to invest a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a running back at all. Roughly one-third of all running backs coming into the NFL become starters, and this doesn't really change with draft position.

Offensive Linemen — Run blocking

Run-blocking grades for centers, guards and tackles have very similar distributions. For that reason, we bin these three positions together to look at all offensive linemen.

If a team wants to commit to the running game, it is better served by drafting run-blockers — rather than running backs — early, as the chance at drafting a stud is fairly decent in the first round and the drop-off through the first two rounds is higher than for any other offensive position other than quarterback.

Given the relative unimportance of the running game, teams might still want to pass on supposedly good run-blockers in the first round, as the chances of getting a starter later are still reasonable and the drop-off after the second round is very small.

Draft success for offensive linemen in run blocking

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	74	58	48	44
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	30.8%	13.6%	8.0%	5.6%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	59.7%	40.6%	31.4%	26.9%

Offensive Linemen — Pass blocking

As opposed to blocking in the running game, pass protection isn't similar across the three positions on the offensive line (tackles are beaten more often than interior linemen). For that reason, we have to separate the three positions.

Offensive tackles

Offensive tackles in pass protection see an even larger drop-off than in run blocking through the first two rounds, and the chance of drafting a starter in the first round is high enough. When a team is on the clock in the first round with a supposed stud pass-blocker at the tackle position at the top of the board, there is little reason to hesitate.

Draft success for offensive tackles in pass protection

Pick	Top 3	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	75	55	43	38
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	27.9%	12.5%	7.2%	4.9%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	62.1%	41.7%	30.7%	24.7%

Offensive guards and centers

For guards and centers, the data tells another story. Drafting them on Day 1 hasn't paid off in terms of protecting the quarterback, so it might be smart to wait at least one or two rounds.

Draft success for offensive guards in pass protection

Pick	Top 10	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	51	52	50	47
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	15.8%	14.4%	11.9%	9.4%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	36.9%	36.6%	33.9%	30.3%

Draft success for centers in pass protection

Pick	Top 10	2nd Round	3rd Round	4th Round
Percentile	60	60	56	52
Chance at stud (90th percentile)	13.4%	15.4%	12.6%	8.8%
Chance at starter (65th percentile)	40.4%	41.5%	35.2%	26.8%

Quote

Conclusion

We can summarise our results for offensive players as the following rule of thumb.

• Quarterbacks: If you want to draft a stud, your only chance apart from an extremely lucky shot in the dark is to get your guy early. Draft them early and trade up if necessary.
• Wide receivers: A first-round pick has value and a good chance to succeed. There is no reason to eliminate those from the draft strategy. However, there is still reasonable hope for upside to be found on Day 2, which might be the “sweet spot” for receivers.
• Tight ends: Based on our findings, it might be smart to eliminate them from the board in the first round, as the drop-off is relatively small.
• Running backs: How much more evidence will it take to stop teams drafting running backs in the first three rounds? They are to be found everywhere.
• Offensive tackles: There's a clear recommendation to pull the trigger in the first round if the talent fits. This is strengthened by the observation that tackles are more costly on veteran contracts than their interior counterparts, hence the surplus-value of finding a starter in the first round is larger.
• Offensive guards and centers: Given the lack of success at drafting them in the first round as well as their relatively low value compared to perimeter players, teams should refrain from drafting them in the first round and should at least consider filling other needs before drafting them in the second round.

We end with a final table that shows the percentile drop-off from the top of the draft to the different rounds for the most important facet of each position.

 

Position	Drop-off to round 2	Drop-off to round 3	Drop-off to round 4
QB	20	28	35
WR	12	22	33
TE	6	11	17
RB	0	0	0
OT	20	32	37
OG	0	2	5
OC	0	4	8
CB	29	43	48
S	15	22	25
LB	4	8	11
ED	20	32	39
DI	13	24	29

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Not drafting a TE last year, which was for TEs like this year is for WRs was a huge failure. Especially when looking at our roster.

 

I like Hentges. A lot. He is not a TE1 "yet" and we absolutely need a better than good TE. It's irresponsible not to have one with a young QB.

We got two guys from that deep TE class - Hentges and Caleb Wilson. Wilson was the guy I wanted in the draft, thought we should spend a 6th or 7th on him. The fact that we got him off someone's practice squad was good. I think he could develop into a number 1 TE. He was called a poor man's Jordan Reed, great pass catching and route running and speed, but little to no blocking ability. 

 

I'm afraid that with the new coaching staff and front office we'll lose guys like this in the wash. I'm not overly committed to him but if we're talking about bringing in another 4th rounder to develop and a vet not named Hooper or Henry, then I think it could really stunt the development of those two. That said, if we can get a legit TE who can come in here and play we should do that, but we've been good in the last few years at developing players. I'd like to see that continue. And hopefully with Kyle Smith running things now he and Doug Williams will both work on the development of players and getting them on the field. 

[Fresh8686]

Quote

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/nfl-combine-sleepers-2020

 

Tul's Takes: Prospects to Watch Closely at the NFL Combine

 

Day 1 (Thursday, Feb. 27): QB/WR/TE

Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

I like mostly everything about Tee Higgins’ game. He is long, fluid and arguably the best wide receiver in this class at snagging a football at the catch point. His consistency in jump-ball situations is unmatched, and he beat up top cornerback prospect Kristian Fulton multiple times in the national championship. The one question I have, however, is regarding his speed. Higgins looks more smooth than explosive, and I think the magic number for him will be to break 4.55 seconds in the 40-yard dash. If he runs faster than that, then he checks the box and will likely cement his status in the first round. If he doesn’t then he could go from a consistent fixture in mock drafts to being a consensus Day 2 selection.

Collin Johnson, WR, Texas

Like Higgins, Collin Johnson has a lot of questions to answer regarding his athleticism. At 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, concerns about Johnson’s ability to gain separation in man coverage have been attached to him throughout his career at Texas. After running good routes and winning several reps in the one-on-one period at the Senior Bowl, Johnson could carry over that momentum with a good 40-yard dash time. However, if he goes out and clocks 4.6 seconds, it will only amplify those concerns.

Lynn Bowden, WR, Kentucky

The do-it-all flex player for Kentucky – Lynn Bowden – is projected to work with the wide receiver group at the combine. Whether that is his best role at the next level or not could be determined with his performance in the route running drills. He currently has the label of being a gadget guy who can come in as a situational playmaker, but if Bowden wants to shed that, running sharp, quick routes in Indianapolis will turn a lot of heads. If there is one skill player that no one is talking about who could become a Day 2 pick with a good combine, it’s Bowden.

 

Day 2 (Friday, Feb. 28): OL/RB/ST

Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

We all remember Orlando Brown’s combine performance a couple of years ago. It took him from a projected first-round pick all the way down to a late Day 2 selection. This year’s mammoth and physical specimen of an offensive tackle is Mekhi Becton, who is listed at 6-foot-7, 370 pounds. Now, I think Becton moves a lot better than Brown did coming out of Oklahoma, but he must avoid the same kind of performance. Essentially, as long as Becton doesn’t completely fall apart next week, it will be a win. Because if he does, concerns around the league about maintaining his weight will only get louder.

Saahdiq Charles, OT, LSU

LSU junior offensive tackle Saahdiq Charles declared after the Tigers won the national championship, and when I first watched his tape, I saw early-round traits with his excellent movement skills and fluidity in pass protection. He also has mitts for hands and decent lower-body strength to anchor down in his sets. As a pure pass protector, there will be some teams that think he is a first-round talent, and he has a chance to blow the roof off with how he looks in the drills. However, after being suspended for the first half of the 2019 season, answering questions during the interview process will be immense for his draft stock. If we start to hear reports and rumors that Charles failed this portion of the combine, his stock could sink dramatically, despite having promising traits.

 

Day 3 (Saturday, Feb. 29): DL/LB

Jonathan Greenard, EDGE, Florida

Florida’s Jonathan Greenard was arguably the most impressive edge defender during the week of practices at the Senior Bowl. He measured in nicely with 34-inch arms and had the best-looking physique of any pass rusher at the event. Quite simply, he looks like an NFL pass rusher. But I question how well he will test in Indianapolis. He wins a lot on his instincts and motor, but how will his agility times look? Greenard could be another instance of a pass rusher having great film, but poor test numbers. I hope that’s not the case.

Curtis Weaver, EDGE, Boise State

If you look solely at his career production at Boise State, defensive end Curtis Weaver has one of the best resumes of any defender in the 2020 draft. We’re talking about a player who has accumulated 34 sacks in just three seasons. So why isn’t he in every first-round mock draft? The primary reason is that many, including myself, struggle to find translatable traits in his game. He is not overly explosive or fluid rushing around the arc. His best plays are when he’s either unblocked or rushing from the interior. With his unorthodox build and questionable athleticism, there are a lot of boxes Weaver needs to check off before a team is comfortable spending a top-50 selection on him. I don’t think he will test as poorly as Jaylon Ferguson did in last year’s draft cycle, but brace yourselves.

Akeem Davis-Gaither, LB, Appalachian State

Akeem Davis-Gaither has the physical profile of a safety, more so than an off-ball linebacker, after measuring in at just 6-foot-1 and 219 pounds during the Senior Bowl. His Appalachian State film at linebacker is incredible though. He is a blur moving from sideline to sideline with his range and short-area quickness. In coverage, he has the potential to be a legitimate difference maker at the next level, especially with how much NFL defenses are moving to a base nickel. That ability to impact the passing game is why Davis-Gaither’s name has popped up in the second round of multiple mock drafts this month, but if he’s going to be this undersized as a sub-220 linebacker, he must test well in Indianapolis. I fully expect him to run fast and look fluid in the drills, but if I’m wrong, the combination of being undersized and poor athletic testing could tumble him to the middle of Day 3.

 

Day 4 (Sunday, Mar. 1): DB

Cameron Dantzler, CB, Mississippi State

Mississippi State junior cornerback Cameron Dantzler has started to emerge as a popular late-first round selection in mock drafts leading up to the combine. In order to maintain that momentum, he’s going to need to perform well in Indianapolis. Most of the other top cornerback prospects have little concerns about their athleticism, but because of Dantzler’s size, some are hesitant about his movement skills. He has a huge opportunity to put those concerns to bed with a strong day in the drills and 40-yard dash. I think he’s going to run a lot faster than expected and his superior ball skills will separate him from the rest of the group early on in the drills portion.

Stanford Samuels III, CB, Florida State

One name that has caught a lot of buzz this month has been Florida State cornerback Stanford Samuels. At 6-foot-2, 190 pounds, he is a long, wiry, press man cornerback who plays with great instincts and fluidity at the line of scrimmage. He changes direction much better than you would expect for a defensive back his size, and it shows in his ability to stay attached to the wide receiver’s hip pocket in one on one looks. His length and leaping ability also play a huge factor at the catch point. The biggest question I have with his game though is his deep speed. There are a lot of times where he lunges and fails to recover because of a lack of acceleration. I think the number to watch in his 40-yard dash time is 4.55 seconds. Anything faster than that and it would be a win for Samuels. I’m just worried that his time will creep up towards the 4.6-second range, which could be a crushing blow for his draft stock.

 

[Thinking Skins]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

People will scoff at this, and they have a good reason to because there is a LOT to prove, but I am okay rolling with Hentges, Sprinkle and Wilson. I'd like to upgrade there, so if we could find a late rounder or a cheaper FA option that would be good. 

 

I also think a little attention at WR relieves pressure at the TE spot. So if we don't snag one of the TEs, I think a guy like Diggs or even a Cooper is imperative to pair with McLaurin. That lets Harmon take on a non-starter role (though I think he's going to be solid). Sims in the slot. Quinn is likely either a second slot or released.

 

I agree completely with that first paragraph. The second not so much. I would like a WR in the group because our offense skill positions is a really young set right now, but Harmon put up some good numbers for a rookie WR. Hw was a 6th rounder but he was the talk of the draft before the draft and considered a steal. I really like the idea of Haskins developing with McLaurin, Harmon and Sims. I think moving Quinn to a reserve role is a good move because he can help in a variety of roles, but that's where I'd like help. Honestly, I wouldn't mind somebody like a Mo Harris or somebody of his type. I don't know if he has the play-time experience I'd want but with these 3 WRs all having productive rookie seasons, I'd want a guy to develop them and teach them how to work. Is there an AP type WR out there?

[KDawg]

Just now, Thinking Skins said:

 

I agree completely with that first paragraph. The second not so much. I would like a WR in the group because our offense skill positions is a really young set right now, but Harmon put up some good numbers for a rookie WR. Hw was a 6th rounder but he was the talk of the draft before the draft and considered a steal. I really like the idea of Haskins developing with McLaurin, Harmon and Sims. I think moving Quinn to a reserve role is a good move because he can help in a variety of roles, but that's where I'd like help. Honestly, I wouldn't mind somebody like a Mo Harris or somebody of his type. I don't know if he has the play-time experience I'd want but with these 3 WRs all having productive rookie seasons, I'd want a guy to develop them and teach them how to work. Is there an AP type WR out there?

 

I don't think you disagreed with my second paragraph at all.

 

Harmon, in a reserve role, would still see significant playing time. In today's NFL, the route runners are constantly tapping out. Or if they run long fades, often are subbed out in order to get personnel in and get the play call in quicker and to give the deep guy a breather. 

 

Harmon would see the field plenty even with a Diggs or Cooper and McLaurin. In fact, their presence would actually help Harmon get more touches. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Thinking Skins]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I don't think you disagreed with my second paragraph at all.

 

Harmon, in a reserve role, would still see significant playing time. In today's NFL, the route runners are constantly tapping out. Or if they run long fades, often are subbed out in order to get personnel in and get the play call in quicker and to give the deep guy a breather. 

 

Harmon would see the field plenty even with a Diggs or Cooper and McLaurin. In fact, their presence would actually help Harmon get more touches. 

See, the tier of guys I'd want probably aren't even FAs right now, but its not Diggs/Cooper. Those guys are going to come in and start over Harmon. I'd be looking at a D. Thomas type guy. He's a legit guy who could produce in spot duty if somebody goes down, but he's not a real threat to any of the starters. He'd probably only get a 3-5 mil per year contract. 

 

But I want Harmon as my number 2 next year. 

[Fresh8686]

Quote

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/michael-pittman-josh-jones-grant-delpit-tee-higgins-nfl-draft-comparison

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/cesar-ruiz-nick-harris-patrick-queen-jordyn-brooks-nfl-draft-comparison

 

Would You Rather: Prospect vs. Prospect

 

Clemson WR Tee Higgins (Round 2) vs. USC WR Michael Pittman (Round 3)

These are the sort of questions that this exercise is really built around. Not only do Pittman and Higgins both play wide receiver, but they also fill the same prototype at the position. Neither is an explosive athlete, though both have good footwork and stride length to help qualify for the baseline athletic requirements of the position. Both are tremendous at adjusting to inaccurate footballs downfield with good initial judgment of deep passes and aggressive, alpha mentalities around jump balls. And both predicate their game on winning with physicality, length and downfield volume.

 

Neither has a profile that tends to translate really well to the NFL.

 

The big catch-radius players who don't have much yards-after-catch juice or separation ability tend to struggle beyond a certain cut-off point in league play. That is to say: The really good ones can stick around, but the Day 3 players, who just need to be fed jump balls to make an impact, don't really get enough volume or trust from their quarterback to do so. Which makes me lean Higgins.

 

But at the same time, if Higgins and Pittman are going to fill roughly the same role at the NFL level (I believe so), and neither is going to be a WR1 in the NFL (which I believe), why wouldn't I take the round discount?

 

I think Higgins has a higher ceiling, and I think they have similar floors. But I'm willing to spend less capital on Pittman to do a comparable job for me, even if I miss out on Higgins developing into something more at the NFL level.

Would rather: Pittman (Round 3)

 

Houston OT Josh Jones (Round 2) vs. UConn OT Matt Peart (Round 4)

It’s interesting one would put the better player in the later round. I respect the audacity.

 

In all seriousness, I like to grab at least one of these every round, because they're fun to discuss. I know NFL teams and their corresponding leaks in the media seem really big on Josh Jones, but I just can't get my head all the way around it. Jones is certainly a toolsy player who has an NFL ceiling, but we tend to view tools as a binary assignment in scouting circles: Is he toolsy or isn't he? Jones definitely is, but it's really not to a ground-breaking level, as my eye can see. Maybe the combine will change my mind, but Jones seems to me just a fine athlete.

 

Accordingly, if we're drafting Jones on tools, I prefer players like Auburn's Prince Tega Wanogho or South Carolina State's Alex Taylor. Critically, not only do these players have better raw physical abilities, but they're also underdeveloped technique-wise relative to the class of the position — neither has played offensive tackle for very long. Jones is a four-year starter at the position and started through high school as well. If he was going to cash in on the promise his tools illustrates, I think we would have seen more development by now.

 

Matt Peart is comparable as an athlete, with better flashes on film, and a more promising developmental profile at a fraction of the cost. Count me in.

Would rather: Peart (Round 4)

 

LSU S Grant Delpit (Round 1) vs. Cal S Ashtyn Davis (Round 2)

Usually, when I start writing these blurbs, I know my conclusion and I write to arrive there. This time, I'm really divided on it, so I'm just going to go with it and see where I end up.

 

The most valuable safeties in the world are the players who can play and win from a single-high alignment, and I think that's both Grant Delpit and Ashtyn Davis in this class. If you can't be a true middle field safety, you have to be wild versatile in the box, which I believe is the case with Xavier McKinney from Alabama.

 

So both Delpit and Davis check that box; good. Who's better there? I think Delpit is more consistent and has better route recognition ability, while I certainly recognize that Davis flashes that a good deal — I just think he's less consistent in terms of football IQ and instincts.

 

With Delpit, everyone complains about the tackling, and rightfully so, but the list of safeties who can play single-high is already pretty thin, and when you take away the guys who don't like tackling, it's almost empty. With that said, that makes Davis really attractive, because I know Ashtyn will run and hit at high velocities, and I'm intrigued by his potential generating turnovers with his physical play from the rooftop. With that said, the productivity went down for Davis this year but so much of that is just situational.

 

I prefer Delpit when you need to get your safety in the box. I'm pretty equal on them as run fit players. I really like Delpit's measurables advantage in man coverage. Egads.

I think I like Delpit enough to warrant the Round 1 selection, even with the tackling concerns. Ask me this question again when we get medical checks back from the combine. I'm worried Delpit's shoulder will be prohibitively poor such that it gets red-flagged, and the entire conversation changes.

Would rather: Delpit (Round 1)

 

Michigan OC Cesar Ruiz (Round 2) vs. Washington OC Nick Harris (Round 4)

Harris didn't have the best Senior Bowl — I was the first one to say that. But Round 4? That's where we are now?

 

The Senior Bowl highlighted Harris' weaknesses against a two-way go with no guards on either side to close up the gaps. He regularly lost to power and gave up ground, which would have compromised a hypothetical pocket and closed throwing hallways for the quarterback.

 

But, in a real pocket, Harris is given the advantage of having bodies to either side. He can redirect power rushers into other bodies, breaking their bases and stunning their rushes. In a similar vein, Harris can utilize slide protection to escort players through gaps and move them beyond quarterback launching points, which is why Harris is such a good fit for wide zone systems.

 

This is not a dissimilar issue to that of NC State’s Garrett Bradbury, who came out in 2019 and, notably, was a first-round selection at that time. Harris is likely to go on Day 2, and likely isn't a better player than Ruiz, but a Round 4 selection is far too much value to pass up.

Would rather: Harris in Round 4

 

Alabama WR Henry Ruggs III (Round 1) vs. TCU WR Jalen Reagor (Round 2) vs. Penn State WR K.J. Hamler (Round 3) vs. Kentucky WR Lynn Bowden (Round 4) vs. Miami WR Jeff Thomas (Round 5)

Yes, you read that right. Brad Kelly wants me to die with a five-layered tweet featuring some of the fastest receivers in the class. It looks scary; I don't think it's that bad though when we look at the nitty-gritty of it.

 

Here's how I have each of these players ranked:

Henry Ruggs III: Round 1

Jalen Reagor: Round 1

K.J. Hamler: Round 2

Lynn Bowden: Round 4

Jeff Thomas: have not evaluated

 

The clear value to me in this grouping belongs to Reagor (a Round 1 player being drafted in Round 2) and Hamler (a Round 2 player being drafted in Round 3). It isn't as neat as saying "getting a Round 1 player in Round 2 is a better value than getting a Round 2 player in Round 3." Because I have a Late 1 on Reagor, and I have an Early 2 on Hamler.

 

As such, I'm leaning toward Hamler. When we step away from eventual 40-yard dash times and just focus on overall playmaking ability, Hamler, Reagor and Ruggs are all on the same tier of danger: DEFCON 5. They're all game-breakers, and even though Hamler doesn't have the routes and hands of Ruggs or contested catch ability of Reagor, he is as dangerous with the ball in his hands. That's the breaker for me.

Would rather: Hamler in Round 3

 

LSU LB Patrick Queen (Round 1) vs. Texas Tech LB Jordyn Brooks (Round 3) vs. Utah State LB David Woodward (Round 4)

This one is initially easy, then it's hard. I like David Woodward more than I like Jordyn Brooks, so there's no way I'm taking Brooks in this array.

But between Patrick Queen in Round 1 and Woodward in Round 4, it's a bit tricky.

 

Where in Round 1 is Queen going? That's a big part of the question. In terms of value, there's a much bigger difference between No. 10 overall and No. 20 overall than there is between No. 110 and No. 120, so it's tough to place where I'd start to value Queen above Woodward selected outside of the top-100 picks.

 

It's worth noting at this stage: Woodward is one of the best options we've got in a weak linebacker class. Brooks, Oregon's Troy Dye, Cal's Evan Weaver are Day 2 candidates, and I find Woodward preferable to all of them. He is a silky mover who excels at slipping blocks in tight areas and exploding into contact outside the tackle box, and has a better projection to pass defense than those linebackers who lack his safety background and experience in short zones.

 

With all of that said, once we get outside of the top-16 picks, I think I'm leaning toward Queen as the more favorable pick. He has such an enticing ceiling as a three-down starter with elite quickness and play recognition for the position. Queen is more likely to become a franchise-defining player while Woodward projects best as a low-end starter and is more likely to provide depth and special-teams value. In that I don't feel like a Round 1 pick for Queen is an overpay, I'll take the starter.

Would rather: Queen in Round 1

 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

If they don't snag Trautman, Kmet or Harrison B., I'm probably waiting until late in the draft for a TE pick up. They wouldn't be the BPA in my opinion at our pick, and there isn't enough of a talent differential between that second tier to reach for them. LB/CB/WR/OL/RB BPA is where I would look in rounds 3, 4 & 5. RB isn't a need, necessarily. But having another good one is a good problem to have. And if the other two can't be healthy (which to be fair to Love isn't a pox mark on him yet), we'll need a horse in the stable for 2021 when AP is likely gone. 

 

I'm not in love with the FA TEs at all.

 

Hunter Henry is a walking injury. Austin Hooper will cost too much for what he is, in my opinion. Of the two, I prefer Henry. And if we could get him for a lower cost per year that would be great. But in a light ass FA class, he's going to fetch a good contract I'd bet. At minimum Olsen money. Likely more.

 

 

 

TE is a tough spot.  You got scant options in FA.   And it's a tough spot traditionally for rookies to hit the ground running. 

 

I like the draft at TE better than most once I started diving into these prospects and I noticed that I am not alone on that view, some other observers agree with me and some don't.   It's missing IMO A listers but IMO there are a bunch of B to C + type prospects. 

 

I don't think I've ever been so into the combine because I have so many receivers and tight ends that I watched  where I don't have a strong feel for their athleticism.  So these are my pre combine thoughts subject to change.   

 

Early 3rd round -- I think there is a shot Trautman and Kmet and Harrison Bryant are still there.  50-50.   I think little chance they are still there in the 4th.  With the combine as a disclaimer.  Harrison Bryant in particular IMO looks explosive on film so if he times that way, too -- that could shoot him into the 2nd round.  Trautman to my eyes has the most potential. 

 

 I think there is a good shot Hunter Bryant goes in the third too but I am not a big fan -- I like him a lot as a receiver but I don't think he has the size to be a traditional TE who does it all.   If Hunter runs something crazy good maybe I'd be sold that he's an Engram type and maybe I'd swallow his blocking.  At least Hunter is a willing blocker. 

 

Early 4th round -- To me Hopkins likely goes here or the third round.  I like Hopkins but don't love him because of the drops and I think he's inconsistent as a blocker.   But if he has a good combine I can see him elevated by some to the third. 

 

I like Pickney as a blocker and he's not bad as a receiver.  He can drop into the late 4th or 5th.  He'd be my guy if we are fishing for bargains because I don't don't a huge disparity in all the TE's I've mentioned up to here.  Albert Okwuebunam would be the other guys that I think would be late 4th and 5th, I'd like the value of him at this spot, too.

 

After these guys IMO there is a fall off.

 

I like O'Grady but his character issues seem to be major red flags.  I like Breeland but not as much as the other TE's I mentioned above.   Thaddeus Moss to me is a weird prospect to assess.  I really wanted to see his combine numbers.  I like his hands-blocking ability.  I don't like his separation skills and YAC ability.  Colby Parkinson to me is a 6th rounder.  but some like him better than I do.  I haven't wanted Asiasi, yet.

 

[skinny21]

@Thinking Skins I’m of a similar mind.  
 

Frankly, I am far more concerned with solidifying our oline (quality starters and depth) and our back 7 on D.  After that comes adding to our pass catchers - receivers, TEs and running backs.  
Given the depth of this receiving class and the fact we have Harmon in the fold, I think I’d much rather look to guys like Mims, Edwards, Tyler Johnson or Van Jefferson in the 3rd-4th than spending big money on a FA.   Guys that can come in and compete and provide depth (whether they or Harmon are that depth).  Of course, I’m also not looking at the situation through a “win-now” lens.  
 

Couple that with either Trautman or Kmet in the 3rd, or a late round TE (Asiasi, Breeland, etc), and a weapon out of the backfield added late (Antonio Gibson say), and I think our offense is pretty well set up for the future.  Assuming we’ve addressed the oline of course.  
 

Edit:  I would absolutely grab an UDFA tight end to stash.  I think it’s a good idea regardless, but with our TE situation, it just makes too much sense given their development arc (unless maybe we sign a top guy and draft another promising one).